Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on ``abstract metrics'' that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging ``big data'' domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

Genome-wide methylation profiling identifies an essential role of reactive oxygen species in pediatric glioblastoma multiforme and validates a methylome specific for H3 histone family 3A with absence of G-CIMP/isocitrate dehydrogenase 1 mutation

Background. Pediatric glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is rare, and there is a single study, a seminal discovery showing association of histone H3.3 and isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) 1 mutation with a DNA methylation signature. The present study aims to validate these findings in an independent cohort of pediatric GBM, compare it with adult GBM, and evaluate the involvement of important functionally altered pathways. Methods. Genome-wide methylation profiling of 21 pediatric GBM cases was done and compared with adult GBM data (GSE22867). We performed gene mutation analysis of IDH1 and H3 histone family 3A (H3F3A), status evaluation of glioma cytosine-phosphate-guanine island methylator phenotype (G-CIMP), and Gene Ontology analysis. Experimental evaluation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) association was also done. Results. Distinct differences were noted between methylomes of pediatric and adult GBM. Pediatric GBM was characterized by 94 hypermethylated and 1206 hypomethylated cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) islands, with 3 distinct clusters, having a trend to prognostic correlation. Interestingly, none of the pediatric GBM cases showed G-CIMP/IDH1 mutation. Gene Ontology analysis identified ROS association in pediatric GBM, which was experimentally validated. H3F3A mutants (36.4%; all K27M) harbored distinct methylomes and showed enrichment of processes related to neuronal development, differentiation, and cell-fate commitment. Conclusions. Our study confirms that pediatric GBM has a distinct methylome compared with that of adults. Presence of distinct clusters and an H3F3A mutation-specific methylome indicate existence of epigenetic subgroups within pediatric GBM. Absence of IDH1/G-CIMP status further indicates that findings in adult GBM cannot be simply extrapolated to pediatric GBM and that there is a strong need for identification of separate prognostic markers. A possible role of ROS in pediatric GBM pathogenesis is demonstrated for the first time and needs further evaluation.

Genome wide chromatin occupancy of mrhl RNA and its role in gene regulation in mouse spermatogonial cells

Mrhl RNA is a nuclear lncRNA encoded in the mouse genome and negatively regulates Wnt signaling in spermatogonial cells through p68/Ddx5 RNA helicase. Mrhl RNA is present in the chromatin fraction of mouse spermatogonial Gc1-Spg cells and genome wide chromatin occupancy of mrhl RNA by ChOP (Chromatin oligo affinity precipitation) technique identified 1370 statistically significant genomic loci. Among these, genes at 37 genomic loci also showed altered expression pattern upon mrhl RNA down regulation which are referred to as GRPAM (Genes Regulated by Physical Association of Mrhl RNA). p68 interacted with mrhl RNA in chromatin at these GRPAM loci. p68 silencing drastically reduced mrhl RNA occupancy at 27 GRPAM loci and also perturbed the expression of GRPAM suggesting a role for p68 mediated mrhl RNA occupancy in regulating GRPAM expression. Wnt3a ligand treatment of Gc1-Spg cells down regulated mrhl RNA expression and also perturbed expression of these 27 GRPAM genes that included genes regulating Wnt signaling pathway and spermatogenesis, one of them being Sox8, a developmentally important transcription factor. We also identified interacting proteins of mrhl RNA associated chromatin fraction which included Pc4, a chromatin organizer protein and hnRNP A/B and hnRNP A2/B1 which have been shown to be associated with lincRNA-Cox2 function in gene regulation. Our findings in the Gc1-Spg cell line also correlate with the results from analysis of mouse testicular tissue which further highlights the in vivo physiological significance of mrhl RNA in the context of gene regulation during mammalian spermatogenesis.

Crystal Structure and Prediction

The notion of structure is central to the subject of chemistry. This review traces the development of the idea of crystal structure since the time when a crystal structure could be determined from a three-dimensional diffraction pattern and assesses the feasibility of computationally predicting an unknown crystal structure of a given molecule. Crystal structure prediction is of considerable fundamental and applied importance, and its successful execution is by no means a solved problem. The ease of crystal structure determination today has resulted in the availability of large numbers of crystal structures of higher-energy polymorphs and pseudopolymorphs. These structural libraries lead to the concept of a crystal structure landscape. A crystal structure of a compound may accordingly be taken as a data point in such a landscape.

Prediction of Land Surface Temperature under Cloudy Conditions using Microwave Remote Sensing and ANN

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important variable in climate, hydrologic, ecological, biophysical and biochemical studies (Mildrexler et al., 2011). The most effective way to obtain LST measurements is through satellites. Presently, LST from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor is applied in various fields due to its high spatial and temporal availability over the globe, but quite difficult to provide observations in cloudy conditions. This study evolves of prediction of LST under clear and cloudy conditions using microwave vegetation indices (MVIs), elevation, latitude, longitude and Julian day as inputs employing an artificial neural network (ANN) model. MVIs can be obtained even under cloudy condition, since microwave radiation has an ability to penetrate through clouds. In this study LST and MVIs data of the year 2010 for the Cauvery basin on a daily basis were obtained from MODIS and advanced microwave scanning radiometer (AMSR-E) sensors of aqua satellite respectively. Separate ANN models were trained and tested for the grid cells for which both LST and MVI were available. The performance of the models was evaluated based on standard evaluation measures. The best performing model was used to predict LST where MVIs were available. Results revealed that predictions of LST using ANN are in good agreement with the observed values. The ANN approach presented in this study promises to be useful for predicting LST using satellite observations even in cloudy conditions. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prediction of Queue Waiting Times for Metascheduling on Parallel Batch Systems

Prediction of queue waiting times of jobs submitted to production parallel batch systems is important to provide overall estimates to users and can also help meta-schedulers make scheduling decisions. In this work, we have developed a framework for predicting ranges of queue waiting times for jobs by employing multi-class classification of similar jobs in history. Our hierarchical prediction strategy first predicts the point wait time of a job using dynamic k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) method. It then performs a multi-class classification using Support Vector Machines (SVMs) among all the classes of the jobs. The probabilities given by the SVM for the class predicted using k-NN and its neighboring classes are used to provide a set of ranges of predicted wait times with probabilities. We have used these predictions and probabilities in a meta-scheduling strategy that distributes jobs to different queues/sites in a multi-queue/grid environment for minimizing wait times of the jobs. Experiments with different production supercomputer job traces show that our prediction strategies can give correct predictions for about 77-87% of the jobs, and also result in about 12% improved accuracy when compared to the next best existing method. Experiments with our meta-scheduling strategy using different production and synthetic job traces for various system sizes, partitioning schemes and different workloads, show that the meta-scheduling strategy gives much improved performance when compared to existing scheduling policies by reducing the overall average queue waiting times of the jobs by about 47%.

Prediction of Fatigue Life in Plain Concrete Using Entropy Production

An energy approach within the framework of thermodynamics is used to model the fatigue process in plain concrete. Fatigue crack growth is an irreversible process associated with an irreversible entropy gain. A closed-form expression for entropy generated during fatigue in terms of energy dissipated is derived using principles of dimensional analysis and self-similarity. An increase in compliance is considered as a measure of damage accumulated during fatigue. The entropy at final fatigue failure is shown to be independent of loading and geometry and is proposed as a material property. A relationship between energy dissipated and number of cycles of fatigue loading is obtained. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Probabilistic Prediction based Scheduling for Delay Sensitive Traffic in Internet of Things

This paper proposes a probabilistic prediction based approach for providing Quality of Service (QoS) to delay sensitive traffic for Internet of Things (IoT). A joint packet scheduling and dynamic bandwidth allocation scheme is proposed to provide service differentiation and preferential treatment to delay sensitive traffic. The scheduler focuses on reducing the waiting time of high priority delay sensitive services in the queue and simultaneously keeping the waiting time of other services within tolerable limits. The scheme uses the difference in probability of average queue length of high priority packets at previous cycle and current cycle to determine the probability of average weight required in the current cycle. This offers optimized bandwidth allocation to all the services by avoiding distribution of excess resources for high priority services and yet guaranteeing the services for it. The performance of the algorithm is investigated using MPEG-4 traffic traces under different system loading. The results show the improved performance with respect to waiting time for scheduling high priority packets and simultaneously keeping tolerable limits for waiting time and packet loss for other services. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.

PREDICTION OF TRANSITIONAL AND SEPARATED BOUNDARY LAYERS IN A COMPRESSOR CASCADE

Numerical simulations were performed of experiments from a cascade of stator blades at three low Reynolds numbers representative of flight conditions. Solutions were assessed by comparing blade surface pressures, velocity and turbulence intensity along blade normals at several stations along the suction surface and in the wake. At Re = 210,000 and 380,000 the laminar boundary layer over the suction surface separates and reattaches with significant turbulence fluctuations. A new 3-equation transition model, the k-k(L)-omega model, was used to simulate this flow. Predicted locations of the separation bubble, and profiles of velocity and turbulence fluctuations on blade-normal lines at various stations along the blade were found to be quite close to measurements. Suction surface pressure distributions were not as close at the lower Re. The solution with the standard k-omega SST model showed significant differences in all quantities. At Re = 640,000 transition occurs earlier and it is a turbulent boundary layer that separates near the trailing edge. The solution with the Reynolds stress model was found to be quite close to the experiment in the separated region also, unlike the k-omega SST solution. Three-dimensional computations were performed at Re = 380,000 and 640,000. In both cases there were no significant differences between the midspan solution from 3D computations and the 2D solutions. However, the 3D solutions exhibited flow features observed in the experiments the nearly 2D structure of the flow over most of the span at 380,000 and the spanwise growth of corner vortices from the endwall at 640,000.

Genome-wide analysis correlates Ayurveda Prakriti

The practice of Ayurveda, the traditional medicine of India, is based on the concept of three major constitutional types (Vata, Pitta and Kapha) defined as ``Prakriti''. To the best of our knowledge, no study has convincingly correlated genomic variations with the classification of Prakriti. In the present study, we performed genome-wide SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) analysis (Affymetrix, 6.0) of 262 well-classified male individuals (after screening 3416 subjects) belonging to three Prakritis. We found 52 SNPs (p <= 1 x 10(-5)) were significantly different between Prakritis, without any confounding effect of stratification, after 10(6) permutations. Principal component analysis (PCA) of these SNPs classified 262 individuals into their respective groups (Vata, Pitta and Kapha) irrespective of their ancestry, which represent its power in categorization. We further validated our finding with 297 Indian population samples with known ancestry. Subsequently, we found that PGM1 correlates with phenotype of Pitta as described in the ancient text of Caraka Samhita, suggesting that the phenotypic classification of India's traditional medicine has a genetic basis; and its Prakriti-based practice in vogue for many centuries resonates with personalized medicine.

Wide-Range Thermometry at Micro/Nano Length Scales with In2O3 Octahedrons as Optical Probes

We report the temperature-dependent photoluminescence and Raman spectra of In2O3 octahedrons synthesized by an evaporation condensation process. The luminescence obtained here is due to the defect-related deep level emission, which shows highly temperature-dependent behavior in 83-573 K range. Both the position as well as the intensity varies with temperature. Similarly, Raman spectroscopy in 83-303 K range shows temperature-dependent variation in peak intensity but no change in the peak position. Interestingly, the variation of intensity for different peaks is consistent with Placzek theory which invokes the possibility of temperature sensing. We demonstrate the reversibility of peak intensity with temperature for consecutive cycles and excellent stability of the octahedrons toward cryogenic temperature sensing. Overall, both the temperature-dependent photoluminescence and Raman spectra can be explored to determine temperature in the cryogenic range at micro/nano length scales. As an example, we evaluate the temperature-dependent Raman spectra of WO3 that undergoes a phase transition around 210 K and temperature-dependent luminescence of Rhodamine 6G (Rh6G) where intensity varies with temperature.

Prediction and validation of gold nanoparticles (GNPs) on plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR): a step toward development of nano-biofertilizers

Several soil microbes are present in the rhizosphere zone, especially plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR), which are best known for their plant growth promoting activities. The present study reflects the effect of gold nanoparticles (GNPs) at various concentrations on the growth of PGPR. GNPs were synthesized chemically, by reduction of HAuCl 4, and further characterized by UV-Vis spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction technique (XRD), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM), etc. The impact of GNPs on PGPR was investigated by Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) recommended Broth-Microdilution technique against four selected PGPR viz., Pseudomonas fluorescens, Bacillus subtilis, Paenibacillus elgii, and Pseudomonas putida. Neither accelerating nor reducing impact was observed in P. putida due to GNPs. On the contrary, significant increase was observed in the case of P. fluorescens, P. elgii, and B. subtilis, and hence, GNPs can be exploited as nano-biofertilizers.

A fast algorithm for speech polarity detection using long-term linear prediction

Speech polarity detection is a crucial first step in many speech processing techniques. In this paper, an algorithm is proposed that improvises the existing technique using the skewness of the voice source (VS) signal. Here, the integrated linear prediction residual (ILPR) is used as the VS estimate, which is obtained using linear prediction on long-term frames of the low-pass filtered speech signal. This excludes the unvoiced regions from analysis and also reduces the computation. Further, a modified skewness measure is proposed for decision, which also considers the magnitude of the skewness of the ILPR along with its sign. With the detection error rate (DER) as the performance metric, the algorithm is tested on 8 large databases and its performance (DER=0.20%) is found to be comparable to that of the best technique (DER=0.06%) on both clean and noisy speech. Further, the proposed method is found to be ten times faster than the best technique.

Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

Prediction of electronically nonadiabatic decomposition mechanisms of isolated gas phase nitrogen-rich energetic salt: Guanidium-triazolate

Electronically nonadiabatic decomposition pathways of guanidium triazolate are explored theoretically. Nonadiabatically coupled potential energy surfaces are explored at the complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) level of theory. For better estimation of energies complete active space second order perturbation theories (CASPT2 and CASMP2) are also employed. Density functional theory (DFT) with B3LYP functional and MP2 level of theory are used to explore subsequent ground state decomposition pathways. In comparison with all possible stable decomposition products (such as, N-2, NH3, HNC, HCN, NH2CN and CH3NC), only NH3 (with NH2CN) and N-2 are predicted to be energetically most accessible initial decomposition products. Furthermore, different conical intersections between the S-1 and S-0 surfaces, which are computed at the CASSCF(14,10)/6-31G(d) level of theory, are found to play an essential role in the excited state deactivation process of guanidium triazolate. This is the first report on the electronically nonadiabatic decomposition mechanisms of isolated guanidium triazolate salt. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.