Modeling of relationships between weather and Septoria tritici epidemics on winter wheat: A critical approach

Two models for predicting Septoria tritici on winter wheat (cv. Ri-band) were developed using a program based on an iterative search of correlations between disease severity and weather. Data from four consecutive cropping seasons (1993/94 until 1996/97) at nine sites throughout England were used. A qualitative model predicted the presence or absence of Septoria tritici (at a 5% severity threshold within the top three leaf layers) using winter temperature (January/February) and wind speed to about the first node detectable growth stage. For sites above the disease threshold, a quantitative model predicted severity of Septoria tritici using rainfall during stern elongation. A test statistic was derived to test the validity of the iterative search used to obtain both models. This statistic was used in combination with bootstrap analyses in which the search program was rerun using weather data from previous years, therefore uncorrelated with the disease data, to investigate how likely correlations such as the ones found in our models would have been in the absence of genuine relationships.

Food crops in a changing climate

Changes in both the mean and the variability of climate, whether naturally forced, or due to human activities, pose a threat to crop production globally. This paper summarizes discussions of this issue at a meeting of the Royal Society in April 2005. Recent advances in understanding the sensitivity of crops to weather, climate and the levels of particular gases in the atmosphere indicate that the impact of these factors on crop yields and quality may be more severe than previously thought. There is increasing information on the importance to crop yields of extremes of temperature and rainfall at key stages of crop development. Agriculture will itself impact on the climate system and a greater understanding of these feedbacks is needed. Complex models are required to perform simulations of climate variability and change, together with predictions of how crops will respond to different climate variables. Variability of climate, such as that associated with El Niño events, has large impacts on crop production. If skilful predictions of the probability of such events occurring can be made a season or more in advance, then agricultural and other societal responses can be made. The development of strategies to adapt to variations in the current climate may also build resilience to changes in future climate. Africa will be the part of the world that is most vulnerable to climate variability and change, but knowledge of how to use climate information and the regional impacts of climate variability and change in Africa is rudimentary. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies globally, predictions about changes in the quantity and quality of food crops need to be considered in the context of the entire food chain from production to distribution, access and utilization. Recommendations for future research priorities are given.

Disease-weather relationships for powdery mildew and yellow rust on winter wheat

Key weather factors determining the occurrence and severity of powdery mildew and yellow rust epidemics on winter wheat were identified. Empirical models were formulated to qualitatively predict a damaging epidemic (>5% severity) and quantitatively predict the disease severity given a damaging epidemic occurred. The disease data used was from field experiments at 12 locations in the UK covering the period from 1994 to 2002 with matching data from weather stations within a 5 km range. Wind in December to February was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic of powdery mildew. Disease severity was best identified by a model with temperature, humidity, and rain in April to June. For yellow rust, the temperature in February to June was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic as well as for disease severity. The qualitative models identified favorable circumstances for damaging epidemics, but damaging epidemics did not always occur in such circumstances, probably due to other factors such as the availability of initial inoculum and cultivar resistance.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Weather to disperse? Evidence that climatic conditions influence vertebrate dispersal

1. Dispersal is regarded as critical to the stability of existing populations and the spread of invading species, but empirical data on the effect of travelling conditions during the transfer phase are rare. We present evidence that both timing and distance of ex-natal dispersal in buzzards (Buteo buteo) are strongly affected by weather. 2. Dispersal was recorded more often when the wind changed to a more southerly direction from the more common westerly winds, and when minimum temperatures were lower. The effect of wind direction was greatest in the winter and minimum temperature was most important in the autumn. Poor weather did not appear to initiate dispersal. 3. Dispersal distance was most strongly correlated with maximum temperature during dispersal and wind direction in the following 5-day period. Combined with the sex of the buzzard these three variables accounted for 60% of the variation in dispersal distance. 4. These results are important for conservationists who manage species recovery programs and wildlife managers who model biological invasions.

Use of a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm in protein folding simulations

We have developed a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm (GA) for simulation of protein folding. The program (written in C) builds a set of Cartesian points to represent an unfolded polypeptide's backbone. The dihedral angles determining the chain's configuration are stored in an array of chromosome structures that is copied and then mutated. The fitness of the mutated chain's configuration is determined by its radius of gyration. A four-helix bundle was used to optimise simulation conditions, and the program was compared with other, larger, genetic algorithms on a variety of structures. The program ran 50% faster than other GA programs. Overall, tests on 100 non-redundant structures gave comparable results to other genetic algorithms, with the Hill-climbing program running from between 20 and 50% faster. Examples including crambin, cytochrome c, cytochrome B and hemerythrin gave good secondary structure fits with overall alpha carbon atom rms deviations of between 5 and 5.6 Angstrom with an optimised hydrophobic term in the fitness function. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Function of the hydration layer around an antifreeze protein revealed by atomistic molecular dynamics simulations

Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate the mechanism by which the antifreeze protein from the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, binds to ice. Comparison of structural and dynamic properties of the water around the three faces of the triangular prism-shaped protein in aqueous solution reveals that at low temperature the water structure is ordered and the dynamics slowed down around the ice-binding face of the protein, with a disordering effect observed around the other two faces. These results suggest a dual role for the solvation water around the protein. The preconfigured solvation shell around the ice-binding face is involved in the initial recognition and binding of the antifreeze protein to ice by lowering the barrier for binding and consolidation of the protein:ice interaction surface. Thus, the antifreeze protein can bind to the molecularly rough ice surface by becoming actively involved in the formation of its own binding site. Also, the disruption of water structure around the rest of the protein helps prevent the adsorbed protein becoming covered by further ice growth.

Building cluster and shading in urban canyon for hot dry climate Part 2: Shading simulations

Under low latitude conditions, minimisation of solar irradiance within the urban environment may often be an important criterion in urban design. This can be achieved when the obstruction angle is large (high H/W ratio, H = height, W = width). Solar access to streets can always be decreased by increasing H/W to larger values. It is shown in this paper that the street canyon orientation (and not only the H/W ratio) has a considerable effect on solar shading and urban microclimate. The paper demonstrates through a series of shading simulation and temperature measurements that a number of useful relationships can be developed between the geometry and the microclimate of urban street canyons. These relationships are potentially helpful to assist in the formulation of urban design guidelines governing street dimensions and orientations for use by urban designers.

Modelling oil absorption during post-frying cooling - II: solution of the mathematical model, model testing and simulations

The mathematical models that describe the immersion-frying period and the post-frying cooling period of an infinite slab or an infinite cylinder were solved and tested. Results were successfully compared with those found in the literature or obtained experimentally, and were discussed in terms of the hypotheses and simplifications made. The models were used as the basis of a sensitivity analysis. Simulations showed that a decrease in slab thickness and core heat capacity resulted in faster crust development. On the other hand, an increase in oil temperature and boiling heat transfer coefficient between the oil and the surface of the food accelerated crust formation. The model for oil absorption during cooling was analysed using the tested post-frying cooling equation to determine the moment in which a positive pressure driving force, allowing oil suction within the pore, originated. It was found that as crust layer thickness, pore radius and ambient temperature decreased so did the time needed to start the absorption. On the other hand, as the effective convective heat transfer coefficient between the air and the surface of the slab increased the required cooling time decreased. In addition, it was found that the time needed to allow oil absorption during cooling was extremely sensitive to pore radius, indicating the importance of an accurate pore size determination in future studies.

The eMinerals project: developing the concept of the virtual organisation to support collaborative work on molecular-scale environmental simulations

The eMinerals project has established an integrated compute and data minigrid infrastructure together with a set of collaborative tools,. The infrastructure is designed to support molecular simulation scientists working together as a virtual organisation aiming to understand a number of strategic processes in environmental science. The eMinerals virtual organisation is now working towards applying this infrastructure to tackle a new generation of scientific problems. This paper describes the achievements of the eMinerals virtual organisation to date, and describes ongoing applications of the virtual organisation infrastructure.

MPJ express meets gadget: towards a java code for cosmological simulations

Gadget-2 is a massively parallel structure formation code for cosmological simulations. In this paper, we present a Java version of Gadget-2. We evaluated the performance of the Java version by running colliding galaxies simulation and found that it can achieve around 70% of C Gadget-2's performance.

Collaborative grid infrastructure for molecular simulations: The eMinerals minigrid as a prototype integrated computer and data grid

This paper describes a prototype grid infrastructure, called the eMinerals minigrid, for molecular simulation scientists. which is based on an integration of shared compute and data resources. We describe the key components, namely the use of Condor pools, Linux/Unix clusters with PBS and IBM's LoadLeveller job handling tools, the use of Globus for security handling, the use of Condor-G tools for wrapping globus job submit commands, Condor's DAGman tool for handling workflow, the Storage Resource Broker for handling data, and the CCLRC dataportal and associated tools for both archiving data with metadata and making data available to other workers.

Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming

Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions1. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones—termed polar lows1—constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data2 often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios3 from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study4 using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data5 revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase.