A panel vector error correction approach to forecasting demand in regional construction markets

Reliable forecasting as to the level of aggregate demand for construction is of vital importance to developers, builders and policymakers. Previous construction demand forecasting studies mainly focused on temporal estimating using national aggregate data. The construction market can be better represented by a group of interconnected regions or local markets rather than a national aggregate, and yet regional forecasting techniques have rarely been applied. Furthermore, limited research has applied regional variations in construction markets to construction demand modelling and forecasting. A new comprehensive method is used, a panel vector error correction approach, to forecast regional construction demand using Australia’s state-level data. The links between regional construction demand and general economic indicators are investigated by panel cointegration and causality analysis. The empirical results suggest that both long-run and causal links are found between regional construction demand and construction price, state income, population, unemployment rates and interest rates. The panel vector error correction model can provide reliable and robust forecasting with less than 10% of the mean absolute percentage error for a medium-term trend of regional construction demand and outperforms the conventional forecasting models (panel multiple regression and time series multiple regression model). The key macroeconomic factors of construction demand variations across regions in Australia are also presented. The findings and robust econometric techniques used are valuable to construction economists in examining future construction markets at a regional level.

Mixing vector construction for single channel semi-blind source separation using empirical mode decomposition

The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method is a commonly used method for solving the problem of single channel blind source separation (SCBSS) in signal processing. However, the mixing vector of SCBSS, which is the base of the EMD method, has not yet been effectively constructed. The mixing vector reflects the weights of original signal sources that form the single channel blind signal source. In this paper, we propose a novel method to construct a mixing vector for a single channel blind signal source to approximate the actual mixing vector in terms of keeping the same ratios between signal weights. The constructed mixing vector can be used to improve signal separations. Our method incorporates the adaptive filter, least square method, EMD method and signal source samples to construct the mixing vector. Experimental tests using audio signal evaluations were conducted and the results indicated that our method can improve the similar values of sources energy ratio from 0.2644 to 0.8366. This kind of recognition is very important in weak signal detection.

Support vector machine (SVM) based multiclass prediction with basic statistical analysis of plasminogen activators

Plasminogen (Pg), the precursor of the proteolytic and fibrinolytic enzyme of blood, is converted to the active enzyme plasmin (Pm) by different plasminogen activators (tissue plasminogen activators and urokinase), including the bacterial activators streptokinase and staphylokinase, which activate Pg to Pm and thus are used clinically for thrombolysis. The identification of Pg-activators is therefore an important step in understanding their functional mechanism and derives new therapies.

Prediction interval estimation for electricity price and demand using support vector machines

Uncertainty is known to be a concomitant factor of almost all the real world commodities such as oil prices, stock prices, sales and demand of products. As a consequence, forecasting problems are becoming more and more challenging and ridden with uncertainty. Such uncertainties are generally quantified by statistical tools such as prediction intervals (Pis). Pis quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the targeted quantities. Pis generated by traditional neural network based approaches are limited by high computational burden and impractical assumptions about the distribution of the data. A novel technique for constructing high quality Pis using support vector machines (SVMs) is being proposed in this paper. The proposed technique directly estimates the upper and lower bounds of the PI in a short time and without any assumptions about the data distribution. The SVM parameters are tuned using particle swarm optimization technique by minimization of a modified Pi-based objective function. Electricity price and demand data of the Ontario electricity market is used to validate the performance of the proposed technique. Several case studies for different months indicate the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of high quality PI generation and shorter computational times.

Recombinant influenza viruses as a vaccine vector for HIV

 Live recombinant influenza viruses were successfully used as HIV vaccine vectors in a mouse model. Following intranasal prime-boost vaccination, HIV-specific CD8+ T cell responses were detected in the spleen, broncho-alveolar lavage, mediastinal and inguinal lymph nodes. HIV+α4β7+ CD8+ T cells contributed to protection in pseudo-challenge experiments using recombinant vaccinia virus expressing HIV antigens. This research highlights the importance of mucosal CD8+ T cells in viral immunity and emphasizes the need for additional studies to provide key insights to underpin future vaccine development.

Prediction interval estimation of electricity prices using PSO-tuned support vector machines

Uncertainty of the electricity prices makes the task of accurate forecasting quite difficult for the electricity market participants. Prediction intervals (PIs) are statistical tools which quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the future electricity prices. Traditional approaches based on neural networks (NNs) generate PIs at the cost of high computational burden and doubtful assumptions about data distributions. In this work, we propose a novel technique that is not plagued with the above limitations and it generates high-quality PIs in a short time. The proposed method directly generates the lower and upper bounds of the future electricity prices using support vector machines (SVM). Optimal model parameters are obtained by the minimization of a modified PI-based objective function using a particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique. The efficiency of the proposed method is illustrated using data from Ontario, Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection day-ahead and real-time markets.

Stable feature selection with support vector machines

The support vector machine (SVM) is a popular method for classification, well known for finding the maximum-margin hyperplane. Combining SVM with l1-norm penalty further enables it to simultaneously perform feature selection and margin maximization within a single framework. However, l1-norm SVM shows instability in selecting features in presence of correlated features. We propose a new method to increase the stability of l1-norm SVM by encouraging similarities between feature weights based on feature correlations, which is captured via a feature covariance matrix. Our proposed method can capture both positive and negative correlations between features. We formulate the model as a convex optimization problem and propose a solution based on alternating minimization. Using both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our model achieves better stability and classification accuracy compared to several state-of-the-art regularized classification methods.

Learning vector representation of medical objects via EMR-driven nonnegative restricted Boltzmann machines (eNRBM)

Electronic medical record (EMR) offers promises for novel analytics. However, manual feature engineering from EMR is labor intensive because EMR is complex - it contains temporal, mixed-type and multimodal data packed in irregular episodes. We present a computational framework to harness EMR with minimal human supervision via restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). The framework derives a new representation of medical objects by embedding them in a low-dimensional vector space. This new representation facilitates algebraic and statistical manipulations such as projection onto 2D plane (thereby offering intuitive visualization), object grouping (hence enabling automated phenotyping), and risk stratification. To enhance model interpretability, we introduced two constraints into model parameters: (a) nonnegative coefficients, and (b) structural smoothness. These result in a novel model called eNRBM (EMR-driven nonnegative RBM). We demonstrate the capability of the eNRBM on a cohort of 7578 mental health patients under suicide risk assessment. The derived representation not only shows clinically meaningful feature grouping but also facilitates short-term risk stratification. The F-scores, 0.21 for moderate-risk and 0.36 for high-risk, are significantly higher than those obtained by clinicians and competitive with the results obtained by support vector machines.

Fast one-class support vector machine for novelty detection

Novelty detection arises as an important learning task in several applications. Kernel-based approach to novelty detection has been widely used due to its theoretical rigor and elegance of geometric interpretation. However, computational complexity is a major obstacle in this approach. In this paper, leveraging on the cutting-plane framework with the well-known One-Class Support Vector Machine, we present a new solution that can scale up seamlessly with data. The first solution is exact and linear when viewed through the cutting-plane; the second employed a sampling strategy that remarkably has a constant computational complexity defined relatively to the probability of approximation accuracy. Several datasets are benchmarked to demonstrate the credibility of our framework.

BacHbpred: support vector machine methods for the prediction of bacterial hemoglobin-like proteins

The recent upsurge in microbial genome data has revealed that hemoglobin-like (HbL) proteins may be widely distributed among bacteria and that some organisms may carry more than one HbL encoding gene. However, the discovery of HbL proteins has been limited to a small number of bacteria only. This study describes the prediction of HbL proteins and their domain classification using a machine learning approach. Support vector machine (SVM) models were developed for predicting HbL proteins based upon amino acid composition (AC), dipeptide composition (DC), hybrid method (AC + DC), and position specific scoring matrix (PSSM). In addition, we introduce for the first time a new prediction method based on max to min amino acid residue (MM) profiles. The average accuracy, standard deviation (SD), false positive rate (FPR), confusion matrix, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were analyzed. We also compared the performance of our proposed models in homology detection databases. The performance of the different approaches was estimated using fivefold cross-validation techniques. Prediction accuracy was further investigated through confusion matrix and ROC curve analysis. All experimental results indicate that the proposed BacHbpred can be a perspective predictor for determination of HbL related proteins. BacHbpred, a web tool, has been developed for HbL prediction.

Verification Of The Standard Vector Data Model For Interoperability Of River-Geospatial Information

Recently, two international standard organizations, ISO and OGC, have done the work of standardization for GIS. Current standardization work for providing interoperability among GIS DB focuses on the design of open interfaces. But, this work has not considered procedures and methods for designing river geospatial data. Eventually, river geospatial data has its own model. When we share the data by open interface among heterogeneous GIS DB, differences between models result in the loss of information. In this study a plan was suggested both to respond to these changes in the information envirnment and to provide a future Smart River-based river information service by understanding the current state of river geospatial data model, improving, redesigning the database. Therefore, primary and foreign key, which can distinguish attribute information and entity linkages, were redefined to increase the usability. Database construction of attribute information and entity relationship diagram have been newly redefined to redesign linkages among tables from the perspective of a river standard database. In addition, this study was undertaken to expand the current supplier-oriented operating system to a demand-oriented operating system by establishing an efficient management of river-related information and a utilization system, capable of adapting to the changes of a river management paradigm.

Immigration as a strategic vector for the socio-economic and institutional development of Brazil

Brazil has demonstrated resilience in relation to the recent economic crises and has an auspicious development potential projected for the coming decades, which, linked to the globalization process, provides important opportunities for our people. Gradually we have established ourselves as one of the leading nations in the world and we have become a reference in questions linked to economic equilibrium, development, energy, agriculture and the environment. This international recognition favors the exchange of experiences with other cultures, governments and organizations, bringing with it the possibility of stimulating a dynamic process of development and innovation.

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables