Le scelte di investimento delle aziende agricole e la PAC post-2013: valutazione di scenari mediante un modello real options

Negli ultimi decenni la Politica Agricola Comune (PAC) è stata sottoposta a diverse revisioni, più o meno programmate, che ne hanno modificato gli obiettivi operativi e gli strumenti per perseguirli. In letteratura economica agraria sono state eseguite diverse ricerche che affrontano analisi ex-ante sui possibili impatti delle riforme politiche, in particolare al disaccoppiamento, riguardo all’allocazione dei terreni alle diverse colture e all’adozione di tecniche di coltivazione più efficienti. Ma tale argomento, nonostante sia di grande importanza, non è stato finora affrontato come altri temi del mondo agricolo. Le principali lacune si riscontrano infatti nella carenza di analisi ex-ante, di modelli che includano le preferenze e le aspettative degli agricoltori. Questo studio valuta le scelte di investimento in terreno di un’azienda agricola di fronte a possibili scenari PAC post-2013, in condizioni di incertezza circa le specifiche condizioni in cui ciascuno scenario verrebbe a verificarsi. L’obiettivo è di ottenere indicazioni utili in termini di comprensione delle scelte di investimento dell’agricoltore in presenza di incertezza sul futuro. L’elemento maggiormente innovativo della ricerca consiste nell’applicazione di un approccio real options e nell’interazione tra la presenza di diversi scenari sul futuro del settore agricolo post-2013, e la componente di incertezza che incide e gravita su di essi. La metodologia adottata nel seguente lavoro si basa sulla modellizzazione di un’azienda agricola, in cui viene simulato il comportamento dell’azienda agricola in reazione alle riforme della PAC e alla variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti in presenza di incertezza. Mediante un modello di Real Option viene valutata la scelta della tempistica ottimale per investire nell’acquisto di terreno (caratterizzato da incertezza e irreversibilità). Dai risultati emerge come in presenza di incertezza all’agricoltore convenga rimandare la decisione a dopo il 2013 e in base alle maggiori informazioni disponibili eseguire l’investimento solo in presenza di condizioni favorevoli. La variazione dei prezzi dei prodotti influenza le scelte più dell’incertezza dei contributi PAC. Il Real Option sembra interpretare meglio il comportamento dell’agricoltore rispetto all’approccio classico del Net Present Value.

O (alpha 4 s) loop-by-loop contributions to heavy quark pair production in hadronic collisions

The present state of the theoretical predictions for the hadronic heavy hadron production is not quite satisfactory. The full next-to-leading order (NLO) ${cal O} (alpha_s^3)$ corrections to the hadroproduction of heavy quarks have raised the leading order (LO) ${cal O} (alpha_s^2)$ estimates but the NLO predictions are still slightly below the experimental numbers. Moreover, the theoretical NLO predictions suffer from the usual large uncertainty resulting from the freedom in the choice of renormalization and factorization scales of perturbative QCD.In this light there are hopes that a next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) ${cal O} (alpha_s^4)$ calculation will bring theoretical predictions even closer to the experimental data. Also, the dependence on the factorization and renormalization scales of the physical process is expected to be greatly reduced at NNLO. This would reduce the theoretical uncertainty and therefore make the comparison between theory and experiment much more significant. In this thesis I have concentrated on that part of NNLO corrections for hadronic heavy quark production where one-loop integrals contribute in the form of a loop-by-loop product. In the first part of the thesis I use dimensional regularization to calculate the ${cal O}(ep^2)$ expansion of scalar one-loop one-, two-, three- and four-point integrals. The Laurent series of the scalar integrals is needed as an input for the calculation of the one-loop matrix elements for the loop-by-loop contributions. Since each factor of the loop-by-loop product has negative powers of the dimensional regularization parameter $ep$ up to ${cal O}(ep^{-2})$, the Laurent series of the scalar integrals has to be calculated up to ${cal O}(ep^2)$. The negative powers of $ep$ are a consequence of ultraviolet and infrared/collinear (or mass ) divergences. Among the scalar integrals the four-point integrals are the most complicated. The ${cal O}(ep^2)$ expansion of the three- and four-point integrals contains in general classical polylogarithms up to ${rm Li}_4$ and $L$-functions related to multiple polylogarithms of maximal weight and depth four. All results for the scalar integrals are also available in electronic form. In the second part of the thesis I discuss the properties of the classical polylogarithms. I present the algorithms which allow one to reduce the number of the polylogarithms in an expression. I derive identities for the $L$-functions which have been intensively used in order to reduce the length of the final results for the scalar integrals. I also discuss the properties of multiple polylogarithms. I derive identities to express the $L$-functions in terms of multiple polylogarithms. In the third part I investigate the numerical efficiency of the results for the scalar integrals. The dependence of the evaluation time on the relative error is discussed. In the forth part of the thesis I present the larger part of the ${cal O}(ep^2)$ results on one-loop matrix elements in heavy flavor hadroproduction containing the full spin information. The ${cal O}(ep^2)$ terms arise as a combination of the ${cal O}(ep^2)$ results for the scalar integrals, the spin algebra and the Passarino-Veltman decomposition. The one-loop matrix elements will be needed as input in the determination of the loop-by-loop part of NNLO for the hadronic heavy flavor production.

Fluidodinamica biomedica computazionale del flusso sanguigno in presenza di affezioni strumentali e/o patologiche

La tesi di Dottorato studia il flusso sanguigno tramite un codice agli elementi finiti (COMSOL Multiphysics). Nell’arteria è presente un catetere Doppler (in posizione concentrica o decentrata rispetto all’asse di simmetria) o di stenosi di varia forma ed estensione. Le arterie sono solidi cilindrici rigidi, elastici o iperelastici. Le arterie hanno diametri di 6 mm, 5 mm, 4 mm e 2 mm. Il flusso ematico è in regime laminare stazionario e transitorio, ed il sangue è un fluido non-Newtoniano di Casson, modificato secondo la formulazione di Gonzales & Moraga. Le analisi numeriche sono realizzate in domini tridimensionali e bidimensionali, in quest’ultimo caso analizzando l’interazione fluido-strutturale. Nei casi tridimensionali, le arterie (simulazioni fluidodinamiche) sono infinitamente rigide: ricavato il campo di pressione si procede quindi all’analisi strutturale, per determinare le variazioni di sezione e la permanenza del disturbo sul flusso. La portata sanguigna è determinata nei casi tridimensionali con catetere individuando tre valori (massimo, minimo e medio); mentre per i casi 2D e tridimensionali con arterie stenotiche la legge di pressione riproduce l’impulso ematico. La mesh è triangolare (2D) o tetraedrica (3D), infittita alla parete ed a valle dell’ostacolo, per catturare le ricircolazioni. Alla tesi sono allegate due appendici, che studiano con codici CFD la trasmissione del calore in microcanali e l’ evaporazione di gocce d’acqua in sistemi non confinati. La fluidodinamica nei microcanali è analoga all’emodinamica nei capillari. Il metodo Euleriano-Lagrangiano (simulazioni dell’evaporazione) schematizza la natura mista del sangue. La parte inerente ai microcanali analizza il transitorio a seguito dell’applicazione di un flusso termico variabile nel tempo, variando velocità in ingresso e dimensioni del microcanale. L’indagine sull’evaporazione di gocce è un’analisi parametrica in 3D, che esamina il peso del singolo parametro (temperatura esterna, diametro iniziale, umidità relativa, velocità iniziale, coefficiente di diffusione) per individuare quello che influenza maggiormente il fenomeno.

International Agricultural Trade under Regulatory Asymmetry: An Economic Analysis of SME Export Behavior

Over the last three decades, international agricultural trade has grown significantly. Technological advances in transportation logistics and storage have created opportunities to ship anything almost anywhere. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements have also opened new pathways to an increasingly global market place. Yet, international agricultural trade is often constrained by differences in regulatory regimes. The impact of “regulatory asymmetry” is particularly acute for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that lack resources and expertise to successfully operate in markets that have substantially different regulatory structures. As governments seek to encourage the development of SMEs, policy makers often confront the critical question of what ultimately motivates SME export behavior. Specifically, there is considerable interest in understanding how SMEs confront the challenges of regulatory asymmetry. Neoclassical models of the firm generally emphasize expected profit maximization under uncertainty, however these approaches do not adequately explain the entrepreneurial decision under regulatory asymmetry. Behavioral theories of the firm offer a far richer understanding of decision making by taking into account aspirations and adaptive performance in risky environments. This paper develops an analytical framework for decision making of a single agent. Considering risk, uncertainty and opportunity cost, the analysis focuses on the export behavior response of an SME in a situation of regulatory asymmetry. Drawing on the experience of fruit processor in Muzaffarpur, India, who must consider different regulatory environments when shipping fruit treated with sulfur dioxide, the study dissects the firm-level decision using @Risk, a Monte Carlo computational tool.

The Application of European Competition Law in Arbitration Proceedings

This work provides several policy proposals capable to strengthen the private enforcement of EU competition law in arbitration. It focuses on the procedural law aspects that are permeated by legal uncertainty and that have not yet fallen under the scrutiny of the law and economics debate. The policy proposals described herein are based on the functional approach to law and economics and aim to promote a more qualified decision making process by: adjudicators, private parties and lawmakers. The resulting framework of procedural rules would be a cost-effective policy tool that could sustain the European Commission’s effort to guarantee a workable level of competition in the EU internal market. This project aims to answer the following broad research question: which procedural rules can improve the efficiency of antitrust arbitration by decreasing litigation costs for private parties on the one hand, and by increasing private parties’ compliance with competition law on the other hand?Throughout this research project, such broad question has been developed into research sub-questions revolving around several key legal issues. The chosen sub-research questions result from a vacuum in the European enforcement system that leaves several key legal issues in antitrust arbitration unresolved. The legal framework proposed in this research project could prevent such a blurry scenario from impairing the EU private enforcement of competition law in arbitration. Therefore, our attention was triggered by those legal issues whose proposed solutions lead to relevant uncertainties and that are most suitable for a law and economics analysis.

Patent nonnuse: are patent pools as possible solution?

Studies have depicted that the rate of unused patents comprises a high portion of patents in North America, Europe and Japan. Particularly, studies have identified a considerable share of strategic patents which are left unused due to pure strategic reasons. While such patents might generate strategic rents to their owner, they may have harmful consequences for the society if by blocking alternative solutions that other inventions provide they hamper the possibility of better solutions. Accordingly, the importance of the issue of nonuse is highlighted within the literature on strategic patenting, IPR policy and innovation economics. Moreover, the current literature has emphasized on the role of patent pools in dealing with potential issues such as excessive transaction cost caused by patent thickets and blocking patents. In fact, patent pools have emerged as policy tools facilitating technology commercialization and alleviating patent litigation among rivals holding overlapping IPRs. In this dissertation I provide a critical literature review on strategic patenting, identify present gaps and discuss some future research paths. Moreover, I investigate the drivers of strategic non-use of patents with particular focus on unused strategic play patents. Finally, I examine if participation intensity in patent pools by pool members explains their willingness to use their non-pooled patents. I also investigate which characteristics of the patent pools are associated to the willingness to use non-pooled patents through pool participation. I show that technological uncertainty and technological complexity are two technology environment factors that drive unused play patents. I also show that pool members participating more intensively in patent pools are more likely to be willing to use their non-pooled patents through pool participation. I further depict that pool licensors are more likely to be willing to use their non-pooled patents by participating in pools with higher level of technological complementarity to their own technology.

Modelling biogeochemical cycles in forest ecosystems: a Bayesian approach

Forest models are tools for explaining and predicting the dynamics of forest ecosystems. They simulate forest behavior by integrating information on the underlying processes in trees, soil and atmosphere. Bayesian calibration is the application of probability theory to parameter estimation. It is a method, applicable to all models, that quantifies output uncertainty and identifies key parameters and variables. This study aims at testing the Bayesian procedure for calibration to different types of forest models, to evaluate their performances and the uncertainties associated with them. In particular,we aimed at 1) applying a Bayesian framework to calibrate forest models and test their performances in different biomes and different environmental conditions, 2) identifying and solve structure-related issues in simple models, and 3) identifying the advantages of additional information made available when calibrating forest models with a Bayesian approach. We applied the Bayesian framework to calibrate the Prelued model on eight Italian eddy-covariance sites in Chapter 2. The ability of Prelued to reproduce the estimated Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) was tested over contrasting natural vegetation types that represented a wide range of climatic and environmental conditions. The issues related to Prelued's multiplicative structure were the main topic of Chapter 3: several different MCMC-based procedures were applied within a Bayesian framework to calibrate the model, and their performances were compared. A more complex model was applied in Chapter 4, focusing on the application of the physiology-based model HYDRALL to the forest ecosystem of Lavarone (IT) to evaluate the importance of additional information in the calibration procedure and their impact on model performances, model uncertainties, and parameter estimation. Overall, the Bayesian technique proved to be an excellent and versatile tool to successfully calibrate forest models of different structure and complexity, on different kind and number of variables and with a different number of parameters involved.

Austauschprozesse an Tropopausenfalten extratropischer Zyklonen

Troposphärisches Ozon ist bekannt als wichtiges Oxidationsmittel und als Vorläufergas hoch reaktiver Radikale. Es zählt zu den wichtigsten Treibhausgasen und wirkt bei hohen Konzentrationen an der Erdoberfläche giftig für alle Lebewesen. Zwar wird der Großteil des troposphärischen Ozons photochemisch produziert, ein erheblicher Anteil hat aber stratosphärischen Ursprung und wird entlang von Tropopausenfalten in Zyklonen in die Troposphäre transportiert. Dieser Transport von Luftmassen aus der Stratosphäre in diernTroposphäre (STT) kann zu einem kurzzeitigen, starken Ozonanstieg am Boden führen und langfristig die Chemie der Troposphäre beeinflussen. Die Quantifizierung des Ozoneintrages und die Identifizierung der dafür verantwortlichen Prozesse ist mit großen Unsicherheiten belastet und ein aktuelles Forschungsthema.rnAufgrund ihrer groben Auflösung ist es mit globalen Modellen nicht möglich, die Details dieser STT-Prozesse zu erfassen. Deshalb wird in dieser Arbeit das Modellsystem MECO(n) genutzt, welches das regionale Atmosphärenchemie- und Klimamodell COSMO/MESSy mit dem globalen Chemie-Klimamodell ECHAM5/MESSy (EMAC) koppelt. Eine einheitliche Prozessparametrisierung ermöglicht konsistente, simultane Simulationen in verschiedenen Modellauflösungen. Ein als Teil dieser Arbeit neu entwickeltes Submodell erlaubt die Initialisierung künstlicher, passiver Tracer in Abhängigkeit verschiedener Variablen. Mit einem auf diese Weise freigesetzten, stratosphärischen Tracer lässt sich Ozon mit stratosphärischer Herkunft von solchem, das photochemisch produziert wurde, unterscheiden.rnIm Rahmen einer Fallstudie werden die Austauschprozesse an einer Tropopausenfalte sowohl aus der Eulerischen, als auch aus der Lagrangeschen Perspektive betrachtet. Die Analyse der STT-Prozesse zeigt, dass Luftmassen aus der Stratosphäre durch turbulente und diabatische Prozesse am Rand der Tropopausenfalte in die Troposphäre gelangen und anschließend bis zum Boden transportiert werden. Diese absinkenden, stratosphärischen Luftmassen führen in den Simulationen zu Ozonanstiegen am Boden, die mit Beobachtungsdaten evaluiert werden können. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Ergebnisse der feiner auflösendenrnModellinstanz gut mit den Messungen übereinstimmen.rnIn einer Lagrangeschen Analyse lassen sich Mischungszeitskalen für STT-Prozesse bestimmen. Es wird gezeigt, dass Luftpakete, die sich länger als zehn Stunden in der Troposphäre aufhalten, diese durch den Eintrag ihrer stratosphärischen Tracereigenschaften beeinflussen und daher nicht vernachlässigbar sind. Eine weitere Studie gibt Aufschluss über die Effektivität der Mischung an Tropopausenfalten: Fast die gesamte Luftmasse, die sich zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt in der Tropopausenfalte befindet, gelangt innerhalb von zwei Tagen in die Troposphäre.

Online health information seeking in the context of the medical consultation in Switzerland

A growing number of patients search for medical information on the Internet. Understanding how they use the Internet is important, as this might impact their health, patient-practitioner roles, and general health care provision. In this article, we illustrate the motives of online health information seeking in the context of the doctor-patient relationship in Switzerland. We conducted semistructured interviews with patients who searched for health information online before or after a medical consultation. Findings suggest that patients searched for health information online to achieve the goals of preparing for the consultation, complementing it, validating it, and/or challenging its outcome. The initial motivations for online health information seeking are identified in the needs for acknowledgment, reduction of uncertainty, and perspective. Searching health information online was also encouraged by personal and contextual factors, that is, a person's sense of self-responsibility and the opportunity to use the Internet. Based on these results, we argue that online health information seeking is less concerned with what happens during the consultation than with what happens before or after it, in the sociocultural context.

Reporting Experiments in Homeopathic Basic Research—Description of the Checklist Development

The objective of this study was to develop a criteria catalogue serving as a guideline for authors to improve quality of reporting experiments in basic research in homeopathy. A Delphi Process was initiated including three rounds of adjusting and phrasing plus two consensus conferences. European researchers who published experimental work within the last 5 years were involved. A checklist for authors provide a catalogue with 23 criteria. The “Introduction” should focus on underlying hypotheses, the homeopathic principle investigated and state if experiments are exploratory or confirmatory. “Materials and methods” should comprise information on object of investigation, experimental setup, parameters, intervention and statistical methods. A more detailed description on the homeopathic substances, for example, manufacture, dilution method, starting point of dilution is required. A further result of the Delphi process is to raise scientists' awareness of reporting blinding, allocation, replication, quality control and system performance controls. The part “Results” should provide the exact number of treated units per setting which were included in each analysis and state missing samples and drop outs. Results presented in tables and figures are as important as appropriate measures of effect size, uncertainty and probability. “Discussion” in a report should depict more than a general interpretation of results in the context of current evidence but also limitations and an appraisal of aptitude for the chosen experimental model. Authors of homeopathic basic research publications are encouraged to apply our checklist when preparing their manuscripts. Feedback is encouraged on applicability, strength and limitations of the list to enable future revisions.

Underestimation of Standard Errors in Multi-Site Time Series Studies

Multi-site time series studies of air pollution and mortality and morbidity have figured prominently in the literature as comprehensive approaches for estimating acute effects of air pollution on health. Hierarchical models are generally used to combine site-specific information and estimate pooled air pollution effects taking into account both within-site statistical uncertainty, and across-site heterogeneity. Within a site, characteristics of time series data of air pollution and health (small pollution effects, missing data, highly correlated predictors, non linear confounding etc.) make modelling all sources of uncertainty challenging. One potential consequence is underestimation of the statistical variance of the site-specific effects to be combined. In this paper we investigate the impact of variance underestimation on the pooled relative rate estimate. We focus on two-stage normal-normal hierarchical models and on under- estimation of the statistical variance at the first stage. By mathematical considerations and simulation studies, we found that variance underestimation does not affect the pooled estimate substantially. However, some sensitivity of the pooled estimate to variance underestimation is observed when the number of sites is small and underestimation is severe. These simulation results are applicable to any two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model for combining information of site-specific results, and they can be easily extended to more general hierarchical formulations. We also examined the impact of variance underestimation on the national average relative rate estimate from the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study and we found that variance underestimation as much as 40% has little effect on the national average.

Exploring Water Governance Arrangements in the Swiss Alps From the Perspective of Adaptive Capacity

In times of increasing uncertainty because of climate and socioeconomic changes, the ability to deal with uncertainty and surprise is an essential requirement for the sustainability of alpine water governance. This article aims to contribute to the understanding of the adaptive capacity of water governance arrangements in the Swiss Alps and to propose options for reforms. To this purpose, we evaluated the current arrangements and the ways the actors have dealt with water shortages in the past, based on qualitative interviews and a document review. The research revealed that the adaptive capacity of the investigated arrangements is rather high with regard to reactive ways of responding to water shortage problems. However, there is limited capacity to proactively anticipate possible changes and to find prospective solutions on a regional scale. We conclude that with increased environmental and social pressures, forms of proactive water resource governance should be introduced, taking into account the welfare of people in both upstream and downstream areas.

RANGE ADAPTIVE PROTON THERAPY FOR PROSTATE CANCER

Purpose: The rapid distal falloff of a proton beam allows for sparing of normal tissues distal to the target. However proton beams that aim directly towards critical structures are avoided due to concerns of range uncertainties, such as CT number conversion and anatomy variations. We propose to eliminate range uncertainty and enable prostate treatment with a single anterior beam by detecting the proton’s range at the prostate-rectal interface and adaptively adjusting the range in vivo and in real-time. Materials and Methods: A prototype device, consisting of an endorectal liquid scintillation detector and dual-inverted Lucite wedges for range compensation, was designed to test the feasibility and accuracy of the technique. Liquid scintillation filled volume was fitted with optical fiber and placed inside the rectum of an anthropomorphic pelvic phantom. Photodiode-generated current signal was generated as a function of proton beam distal depth, and the spatial resolution of this technique was calculated by relating the variance in detecting proton spills to its maximum penetration depth. The relative water-equivalent thickness of the wedges was measured in a water phantom and prospectively tested to determine the accuracy of range corrections. Treatment simulation studies were performed to test the potential dosimetric benefit in sparing the rectum. Results: The spatial resolution of the detector in phantom measurement was 0.5 mm. The precision of the range correction was 0.04 mm. The residual margin to ensure CTV coverage was 1.1 mm. The composite distal margin for 95% treatment confidence was 2.4 mm. Planning studies based on a previously estimated 2mm margin (90% treatment confidence) for 27 patients showed a rectal sparing up to 51% at 70 Gy and 57% at 40 Gy relative to IMRT and bilateral proton treatment. Conclusion: We demonstrated the feasibility of our design. Use of this technique allows for proton treatment using a single anterior beam, significantly reducing the rectal dose.