Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence

The Great Moderation, the significant decline in the variability of economic activity, provides a most remarkable feature of the macroeconomic landscape in the last twenty years. A number of papers document the beginning of the Great Moderation in the US and the UK. In this paper, we use the Markov regime-switching models of Hamilton (1989) and Hamilton and Susmel (1994) to document the end of the Great Moderation. The Great Moderation in the US and the UK begin at different point in time. The explanations for the Great Moderation fall into generally three different categories -- good monetary policy, improved inventory management, or good luck. Summers (2005) argues that a combination of good monetary policy and better inventory management led to the Great Moderation. The end of the Great Moderation, however, occurs at approximately the same time in both the US and the UK. It seems unlikely that good monetary policy would turn into bad policy or that better inventory management would turn into worse management. Rather, the likely explanation comes from bad luck. Two likely culprits exist . energy-price and housing-price shocks.

US Corporate Default Swap Valuation: The Market Liquidity Hypothesis and Autonomous Credit Risk

This paper develops a reduced form three-factor model which includes a liquidity proxy of market conditions which is then used to provide implicit prices. The model prices are then compared with observed market prices of credit default swaps to determine if swap rates adequately reflect market risks. The findings of the analysis illustrate the importance of liquidity in the valuation process. Moreover, market liquidity, a measure of investors. willingness to commit resources in the credit default swap (CDS) market, was also found to improve the valuation of investors. autonomous credit risk. Thus a failure to include a liquidity proxy could underestimate the implied autonomous credit risk. Autonomous credit risk is defined as the fractional credit risk which does not vary with changes in market risk and liquidity conditions.

Ausst. 252 - Lud[us] stude[n]tu[m] Friburgensium cum Prophetia mirabilis in fine

Mathias Sanbuccellus ... quod tibi murnerius condidit ecce Thomas ...

Effects of health disparities on Helicobacter pylori infection among children on the US-Mexico border

The objective of this study is to determine whether health disparities influence the odds of developing H. pylori infections among the children enrolled in the Pasitos Cohort Study on the US-Mexico border. The study variables were the number of prenatal care visits, ways of transportation, car in household, location of health services and insurance coverage. The study recruited eligible pregnant women to complete baseline questionnaires. Every six months after the birth of the child, infection status is measure by the 13-C urea breath test. Results indicate that having medical insurance consistently decreases the odds of being infected. Children with mothers who went to a private physician had decreased odds of infection compared to those utilizing public clinics, and having a car in the household increased the odds of infection. Limitations include bias due to loss to follow-up and the transient nature of the infection.^

Phthalate exposure among US women, NHANES 1999--2002: Relationship to serum gonadotropin levels

Phthalates are industrial chemicals used primarily as plasticizers though they and are found in a myriad of consumer goods such as children's toys, food packaging, dental sealants, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, perfumes, and building materials. US biomonitoring data show more than 75% of the population have exposure to mono-n-butyl phthalate (MBP), mono-ethyl phthalate (MEP), mono-(2-ethyl) hexyl phthalate (MEHP), and mono-benzyl phthalate (MBZP). Reproductive toxicity from phthalate exposure in animal models has raised concerns about similar effects on fertility in humans. This dissertation research focuses on phthalate exposures in the US population and investigates the plausibility of an exposure-response relationship between phthalates and endocrine hormones essential for ovulation among US women. The objective of this research is to determine the relationship between levels of gonadotropins, follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) and leutinizing hormone (LH), and urinary phthalate monoester metabolites: MBP, MEP, MEHP, MBZP among National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2002 women aged 35 to 60 years. Using biomarker data from a one-third sub-sample of NHANES participants, log transformed serum FSH and serum LH, respectively were regressed on phthalates controlling for age, body mass index, smoking, and creatinine taking into consideration the complex survey design (n=385). Models were stratified by reproductive status: reproductive (n=185), menopause transition (n=49) and post-menopausal (n=125). A decrease in FSH associated with increasing MBzP (beta=-0.094, p<0.05) was observed for all participants but no statistical association between log FSH and MBP, MEP, or MEHP was seen. A decrease in LH (beta=-0.125, p<0.05) was also observed with increasing MBzP for all participants though there was no relationship between levels of LH and MBP, MEP, or MEHP. The observed associations between FSH, LH and MBzP did not persist when stratified by reproductive status. Thus, the present study shows a change in endocrine hormones related to ovulation with increasing urinary MBzP among a representative sample of US women from 1999-2002 though this observed exposure-response relationship does not remain after stratification by reproductive status. ^

The epidemiology of Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C virus infection among college students who are not US/Canadian born in Houston

Introduction. A vast majority of studies conducted in both developed and developing nations have focused on the epidemiology of HBV (Hepatitis B virus) and HCV (Hepatitis C virus) in high-risk populations; low-risk populations have been neglected. Recently Hwang et al conducted a unique large cross-sectional study in American university students that focused on cosmetic procedures and drug use for acquiring these infections among a low-risk young adult population In Houston. ^ Methods. This study is a secondary data analysis of the cross-sectional study conducted by Hwang et al. Data for this anonymous study were collected from 7,960 college students, among whom were the 2,561 non US/Canadian born students included in this study. All students completed a self-administered questionnaire and provided a blood sample. The epidemiology of HBV/HCV and risk factors for acquiring HBV/HCV infection was studied by comparing those with HBV/HCV infection versus those without. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the data. ^ Results. Overall prevalence of HBV and HCV infections were 22% and 0.8% respectively. By multivariable analysis, the factors that were independently associated with increased prevalence of HBV infection were increasing age per year (OR=1.06, 95% C.I=1.04-1.08), Black or Asian race (OR=6.21, 95% C.I=3.14-12.27), history of household contact with hepatitis (OR=1.87, 95% C.I=1.15-3.05), and having sexual partner with hepatitis (OR=5.20, 95% C.I=1.5-18.00). For HCV these factors included increasing age per year (OR= 1.08, 95% C.I=1.03-1.14), history of blood transfusion prior to 1991 (OR=25.45, 95% C.I=7.58-85.40), and Injection drug use. (OR=78.15, 95% C.I=12.19-500.85). Cosmetic procedures like tattooing were not significant risk factors for either HBV or HCV infection. ^ Conclusions. In a low-risk adult foreign born population, cosmetic procedures are not significant risk factors for HBV or HCV infection. The prevention strategies of these infections in this population should focus on safe sexual practices/abstinence and HBV vaccination should be provided to adolescents and sexually active adults. ^

Helicobacter pylori infection and the effect on growth in a cohort of children in the US/Mexico border

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is an S-shaped or curved gram-negative bacterium that is mostly found in the human stomach. H. pylori causes gastritis in adults and children, which can lead to gastric ulcers or risk of cancer. Transmission of this bacterial infection remains to be unknown but is mostly acquired during childhood. Little is known about the effect H. pylori has on growth in children. Although some studies have reported that H. pylori is associated with subnormal growth, the association of H. pylori with growth retardation and malnutrition is poorly described. Data from this study comes from The Pasitos Cohort Study which draws its population from three border communities which include Socorro and San Elizario in Texas, as well as Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico. Birth documentation was obtained for 803 infants and 472 entered follow-up. This cohort study allowed us to assess the growth of children from 6 months to the seventh anniversary, and describe the prevalence of underweight, short stature and overweight in the study population. We also tested the hypothesis that children in the Pasitos Cohort Study who were ever infected with H. pylori show an increased risk of growth retardation or malnutrition at 66 months of age. Using the 2000 CDC Growth Reference, we found that the mean BMI of the study population increased as children grew older, while the mean of their height for age decreased slightly. The proportion of children who were classified as of short stature was under 5%, while those considered underweight were less than 10% at selected six-months of age intervals. Using the subset of children who were 66 months of age we found that the risk of underweight was higher among those who ever tested positive for H. pylori infection using the urea breath test; however, due to small numbers of children with 'wasting' this difference was not statistically significant. Moreover, since the six cases of under weight occurred among children of low socio-economic status we could not rule out potential confounding. The risk of developing short stature was not different among those ever infected and those who never tested positive for H. pylori infection. ^

Assessment of US Air Force student pilots with intermittent monofixation syndrome on a non-stereoptic dependent flight maneuver in pilot training

The United States Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine (USAFSAM) and Aeromedical Consult Service (ACS) have developed waiver criteria for pilots with subtle substandard depth perception. This is to allow United States Air Force (USAF) pilots with mild depth perception deficiency to continue flying duties while limiting the risk to flight safety and ensuring the availability of costly human resources. From 1999 to 2005, 166 aviators were given waivers for intermittent monofixation syndrome (IMFS). Of these, 96 were student pilots who performed slightly worse at stereoptic dependent flight maneuvers than student pilots (8,907) with normal depth perception (Lowry, 2006).^ This study's purpose is to evaluate the performance of the extended-trail maneuver, a non-stereoptic dependent flying maneuver, as executed by a cohort of 12 United States Air Force student pilots with intermittent monofixation syndrome versus the cohort of 100 student pilots with normal depth perception. These subjects are extracted from the cohorts examined by Lowry (2006) and the null hypothesis predicts no statistical difference in the performance of the non-stereoptic dependant flight maneuver extended-trail between student pilots with intermittent monofixation syndrome and those without the condition. ^

Refugees from Myanmar and their health care needs in the US: A qualitative study at a refugee-resettlement agency

In response to the recent rapid influx of refugees from Myanmar, Interfaith Ministries for Greater Houston (IM), a refugee resettlement agency, started to support them in June 2007. The study looked at the refugees' perspectives and identified the gaps in their understanding on US health care system, health seeking behaviors and challenges in utilizing health care in United States. The major issues identified were non-compliance with tuberculosis prevention medication due to barriers in obtaining medication refills, barriers in accessing specialty care services, transportation issues, written and oral language barrier, difficulties in the application for and use of Medicaid and Gold Card, misunderstanding of emergency health services, lack of resources for health education, self-treatment with Western medicine and income too low to buy private health insurance. In order to transform them to healthy citizens able to contribute to the US workforce, several multi-faceted and comprehensive approaches and better coordination among agencies are recommended. ^

Assessment of markers of medication literacy in a US-Mexico border community

Each year an estimated 180,000 people in the United States (U.S.) die as a result of medication errors, now considered a major public health problem. If a patient cannot correctly act on information related to medication use or "Medication Literacy" there is an increased potential for error. Medication use issues are unique on the US-Mexico border because they include high rates of herbal products and medication products from Mexico as well as issues related to the preferred language (English or Spanish) of the patient. To evaluate the medication literacy in a US-Mexico border community, this retrospective study evaluates 180 subjects representing four diverse economic segments of a metropolitan US-Mexico Border community who have taken a Medication Literacy Assessment. The assessment tool has been created to understand how patients interpret medication information for prescription, over-the-counter, herbal, and Mexican medication product use, and how they problem-solve medication questions. The Medication Literacy Assessment tool specifically assesses document literacy (e.g., prescription labels), prose literacy (e.g., patient leaflets), numeracy (e.g., calculations and measurements) as well as qualitative data related to medication use practices. The main hypothesis of this study is that the ability to interpret and use medications will vary based on education, language (Spanish or English), and recruitment sites (economically diverse communities). The results will provide information to better characterize medication use in a primarily Hispanic population on the US-Mexico border and may be used to influence policy decisions regarding prescription and over-the-counter product information.^

US medical students' knowledge of obstetric fistula in developing countries

Obstetric fistula is a devastating child birth injury affecting millions of women worldwide. This paper explores the knowledge and understanding of medical students at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio regarding this global public health issue. Obstetric fistula has been eradicated in most industrialized nations, and has therefore faded from view of many modern medical organizations. The United Nations Population Fund has launched a “Campaign to End Fistula” in an attempt to bring global awareness to this preventable and treatable condition. Based on a survey administered to medical students at UTHSCSA, a baseline understanding of this disorder based on current curriculum is reviewed, with the objective of improving future physicians’ awareness of obstetric fistula. Despite a low survey response rate, there was a significant association between greater knowledge about causes, treatment, and complications of obstetric fistula and advanced years in medical school. However, the fourth year medical students averaged only a 70.5 percent of correct responses on the survey, indicating room for improvement in addressing this topic during medical school. ^

Smokeless tobacco use in 2005 US Military population

U.S. Military personnel are more likely to use smokeless tobacco than civilians. The purpose of this study was to describe the relationship between smokeless tobacco use and sociodemographic, behavioral, and occupational variables, using data from the 2005 Department of Defense Survey of Health Related Behaviors among Active Duty Military Personnel. The DoD survey was comprised of representative active duty U.S. military members (N=16,146). In adjusted multivariate logistic regression models, this study found smokeless tobacco use to be more prevalent in younger age, males, whites, and enlisted-rank members. By service, higher rates were reported among members of the Army and Marine Corps than among the Air Force and Navy members. Smokeless tobacco use among those who also smoke or drink heavily was also much higher than among those who did not report smoking or heavy alcohol use. Results also showed increased prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among those who reported moderate or high impulsive behavior and among those who recently deployed. These findings contribute to improving the understanding of factors related to smokeless tobacco use in the military and may help design strategies to reduce the use of this potentially toxic substance and improve health for military members.^

Predictive factors for vaginal douching and tampon use among US women: Are these behaviors risk factors for bacterial vaginosis and trichomonas?

The use of feminine products such as vaginal douches, tampons, and sanitary napkins are common among women. Despite the results of some studies that suggest an association between douching and bacterial vaginosis, douching remains a topic that is understudied. The possibility of an association between tampon use and infection has not been significantly investigated since the toxic shock outbreak in the 1980s. The first objective of our study was to evaluate demographic, reproductive health, and sexual behavior variables to establish an epidemiologic profile of menstruating women who reported douching and women who reported using sanitary napkins only. The second objective of our study was to evaluate whether the behaviors of douching and using tampons were associated with an increased risk of bacterial vaginosis or trichomonas. We analyzed these factors, using logistic regression, among the 3,174 women from the NHANES cross sectional data from 2001-2004, who met the inclusion criteria determined for our study. We established an epidemiologic profile for women who had the highest frequency of douching reported as women who were age 36-49, had a high school education or GED, black race, not taking oral contraceptives, reported vaginal symptoms in the last month, two or more sexual partners in the last year, or tested positive for bacterial vaginosis or trichomonas. The profile for those who had the highest frequency of exclusive sanitary napkin use included women with less than a high school education, married women, women classified as black or "other" in race, and women who were not on oral contraceptives. While we were able to establish a significant increase in the odds of douching among women who tested positive for bacterial vaginosis or trichomonas, we did not find any significant difference in the odds of exclusive napkin use and testing negative for bacterial vaginosis or trichomonas.^

Re-emerging Vitamin D deficiency epidemic and its implications on the public health in the US

Vitamin D is essential in maintaining the bone health and Calcium homeostasis in the body. These actions are mediated through the Vitamin D receptors (VDR) present in cells through which the activated vitamin D acts [1]. In the past, it was known that these receptors existed in the intestine and bone cell. However, recent discovery of VDR in other tissues as well, has broadened the action of Vitamin D and increased its adequate intake [1].^ In the past, Vitamin D deficiency was most common among institutionalized, elderly patients and children and thought to be extinct in the healthy population. However, recent evidence has shown that, prevalence of vitamin D deficiency is increasing into an epidemic status in the overall population of the United States, including the healthy individuals [2-3]. The increased daily-recommended requirement and other multiple factors are responsible for the re-emergence of this epidemic [4-5]. Some of these factors could be used to control the epidemic. Studies have also shown the association between vitamin D deficiency and increased risk for developing chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, multiple sclerosis, arthritis, and some fatal cancers like prostate, colon and breast cancers [1, 4, 6-14]. This issue results in increased disease burden, morbidity and mortality in the community [15-20].^ Methods: The literature search was conducted using the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHSC) and University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center (UTSW) online library. The key search terms used are “vitamin D deficiency And prevalence Or epidemiology”, “vitamin D deficiency And implication And public health” using PubMed and Mesh database and “vitamin D deficiency” using systematic reviews. The search is limited to Humans and the English language. The articles considered for the review are limited to Healthy US population to avoid health conditions that predispose the population to vitamin D deficiency. Only US population is considered to narrow down the study.^ Results: There is an increased prevalence of low levels of Vitamin D levels below the normal range in the US population regardless of age and health status. Vitamin D deficiency is also associated with increased risk of chronic illnesses and fatal cancers.^ Conclusion: This increased prevalence and the association of the deficiency with increased all-cause mortality has increased the economic burden and compromised the quality of life among the population. This necessitates the health care providers to routinely screen their patients for the Vitamin D status and counsel them to avoid the harmful effects of the Vitamin D deficiency. ^

2005 ACIP recommendations effect on newborn hepatitis B vaccination rates and the factors affecting the successful implementation of the recommendations in the US

Background. Hepatitis B virus infection is one of major causes of acute and chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis of the liver, and primary hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatitis B and its long term consequences are major health problems in the United States. Hepatitis B virus can be vertically transmitted from mother to infant during birth. Hepatitis B vaccination at birth is the most effective measure to prevent the newborn from HBV infection and its consequences, and is part of any robust perinatal hepatitis B prevention program following ACIP recommendations. Universal vaccination of the new born will prevent HBV infection during early childhood and, assuming that children receive the three dosages of the vaccine, it will also prevent adolescent and adult infections. Hepatitis B vaccination is now recommended as part of a comprehensive strategy to eliminate HBV transmission in the United States. ^ Objective. (1)To assess if the hepatitis B vaccination rates of newborn babies have improved after the 2005 ACIP recommendations. (2) To identify factors that affects the implementation of ACIP recommendation for hepatitis B vaccination in newborn babies. These factors will encourage ongoing improvement by identifying successful efforts and pinpointing areas that fall short and need attention. Additional focus areas may be identified to accelerate progress in eliminating perinatal HBV transmission.^ Methods. This review includes information from all pertinent articles, reviews, National immunization survey (NIS) surveys, reports, peer reviewed literature and web sources that were published after 1991.The key words to be used for selecting the articles are: "Perinatal Hepatitis B Prevention program", "Universal Hepatitis B vaccination of newborn babies", "ACIP Recommendations." The data gathered will be supplemented with an analysis of vaccination rates using the National Immunization Survey (NIS) birth dose coverage data.^ Results. The data collected in the NIS of 2009 reveals that the national coverage for birth dose of HepB increased to 60.8% from 50.1% in 2006. The largest increase observed for the birth dose in the past 5 years is from 2008 which increased from 55.3 % to 60.8% in 2009. By state, coverage ranged from 22.8% in Vermont to 80.7% in Michigan. %. Overall, in 2009 the estimated vaccination rates are in higher ranges for most states compared to the estimated vaccination rates in 2006. States vary widely in hepatitis B vaccination rates and in their compliance with the 2005 ACIP recommendation. There are many factors at various stages that might affect the successful implementation of the new ACIP recommendation as revealed in literature review. ^ Conclusions. HBV perinatal transmission can be eliminated, but it requires identifying the gaps and measures taken to increase the current vaccination coverage, ensuring timely administration of post exposure immunoprophylaxis and continued evaluations of the impact of immunization recommendations.^