Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Cultural economy planning in creative cities : discourse and practice

While a growing body of research analyses the functional mechanisms of the cultural or creative economy, there has been little attention devoted to understanding how local governments translate this work into policy. Moreover, research in this vein focuses predominately on Richard Florida's creative class thesis rather than considering the wider body of work that may influence policy. This article seeks to develop a deeper understanding of how municipalities conceptualize and plan for the cultural economy through the lens of two cities held up as model ‘creative cities’ — Austin, Texas and Toronto, Ontario. The work pays particular attention to how the cities adopt and adapt leading theories, strategies and discourses of the cultural economy. While policy documents indicate that the cities embrace the creative city model, in practice agencies tend to adapt conventional economic development strategies for cultural economy activity and appropriate the language of the creative city for multiple purposes.

Beyond Bilbao : rethinking flagship cultural development and planning in three California cities

Since the widely publicized revitalization success story of the Guggenheim Museum Bilbao, local governments have been scrambling to create their own flagship cultural projects. Because of the broad public sponsorship of such projects, urban planners need a full understanding of the associated potentials and problems. However, little research specifically examines the localized complexities of the flagship cultural strategy. Examining projects in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Jose, California, the article illustrates that much more than impressive architecture influences their catalytic ability. Flagship cultural projects are highly dependent on a variety of contextual factors and, therefore, should be positioned to build on existing arts and related commercial activity rather than gamble that they will generate new development from scratch.

Defining the spatiotemporal surveillance space for alien species’ invasions using approximate Bayesian computation

The spatiotemporal dynamics of an alien species invasion across a real landscape are typically complex. While surveillance is an essential part of a management response, planning surveillance in space and time present a difficult challenge due to this complexity. We show here a method for determining the highest probability sites for occupancy across a landscape at an arbitrary point in the future, based on occupancy data from a single slice in time. We apply to the method to the invasion of Giant Hogweed, a serious weed in the Czech republic and throughout Europe.

Prediction of thermal expansion properties of carbon nanotubes using molecular dynamics simulations

The axial coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) of various carbon nanotubes (CNTs), i.e., single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), and some multi-wall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), were predicted using molecular dynamics (MDs) simulations. The effects of two parameters, i.e., temperature and the CNT diameter, on CTE were investigated extensively. For all SWCNTs and MWCNTs, the obtained results clearly revealed that within a wide low temperature range, their axial CTEs are negative. As the diameter of CNTs decreases, this temperature range for negative axial CTEs becomes narrow, and positive axial CTEs appear in high temperature range. It was found that the axial CTEs vary nonlinearly with the temperature, however, they decrease linearly as the CNT diameter increases. Moreover, within a wide temperature range, a set of empirical formulations was proposed for evaluating the axial CTEs of armchair and zigzag SWCNTs using the above two parameters. Finally, it was found that the absolute value of the negative axial CTE of any MWCNT is much smaller than those of its constituent SWCNTs, and the average value of the CTEs of its constituent SWCNTs. The present fundamental study is very important for understanding the thermal behaviors of CNTs in such as nanocomposite temperature sensors, or nanoelectronics devices using CNTs.

Vulnerability : an issue for law and policy in pandemic planning?

The 2009 H!Nl 'swine flu' pandemic was the first influenza pandemic of the twenty-first centmy. Unlike the first influenza pandemic of the twentieth century, the so-called 'Spanish flu' which killed millions of people worldwide, the 2009 pandemic was relatively mild. While the mildness of the 2009 pandemic meant that the 'Yorld was spared from the impact of a high-mortality event that would cause widespread social and economic disruption, the 2009 pandemic did provide an opportunity to road-test pandemic readiness. In other work we have assessed Australia's pandemic plans and emergency management legislation, finding that both provide flexible and adaptive forms of regulation that are capable of adapting to the scale and severity of a pandemic or other public health emergency. 1 In this chapter we consider whether pandemic planning adequately addresses the needs of vulnerable individuals and groups, both within countries and between them. Central to this is the question of whether vulnerability is itself a useful concept for both law and policy, and if so, the implications of expressly incorporating the concept of vulnerability into pandemic planning.

A large proportion of asymptomatic Plasmodium infections with low and sub-microscopic parasite densities in the low transmission setting of Temotu Province, Solomon Islands : challenges for malaria diagnostics in an elimination setting

Background Many countries are scaling up malaria interventions towards elimination. This transition changes demands on malaria diagnostics from diagnosing ill patients to detecting parasites in all carriers including asymptomatic infections and infections with low parasite densities. Detection methods suitable to local malaria epidemiology must be selected prior to transitioning a malaria control programme to elimination. A baseline malaria survey conducted in Temotu Province, Solomon Islands in late 2008, as the first step in a provincial malaria elimination programme, provided malaria epidemiology data and an opportunity to assess how well different diagnostic methods performed in this setting. Methods During the survey, 9,491 blood samples were collected and examined by microscopy for Plasmodium species and density, with a subset also examined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). The performances of these diagnostic methods were compared. Results A total of 256 samples were positive by microscopy, giving a point prevalence of 2.7%. The species distribution was 17.5% Plasmodium falciparum and 82.4% Plasmodium vivax. In this low transmission setting, only 17.8% of the P. falciparum and 2.9% of P. vivax infected subjects were febrile (≥38°C) at the time of the survey. A significant proportion of infections detected by microscopy, 40% and 65.6% for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively, had parasite density below 100/μL. There was an age correlation for the proportion of parasite density below 100/μL for P. vivax infections, but not for P. falciparum infections. PCR detected substantially more infections than microscopy (point prevalence of 8.71%), indicating a large number of subjects had sub-microscopic parasitemia. The concordance between PCR and microscopy in detecting single species was greater for P. vivax (135/162) compared to P. falciparum (36/118). The malaria RDT detected the 12 microscopy and PCR positive P. falciparum, but failed to detect 12/13 microscopy and PCR positive P. vivax infections. Conclusion Asymptomatic malaria infections and infections with low and sub-microscopic parasite densities are highly prevalent in Temotu province where malaria transmission is low. This presents a challenge for elimination since the large proportion of the parasite reservoir will not be detected by standard active and passive case detection. Therefore effective mass screening and treatment campaigns will most likely need more sensitive assays such as a field deployable molecular based assay.

Health education and the control of intestinal worm infections in China : a new vision

Background: The transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) is associated with poverty, poor hygiene behaviour, lack of clean water and inadequate waste disposal and sanitation. Periodic administration of benzimidazole drugs is the mainstay for global STH control but it does not prevent re-infection, and is unlikely to interrupt transmission as a stand-alone intervention. Findings: We reported recently on the development and successful testing in Hunan province, PR China, of a health education package to prevent STH infections in Han Chinese primary school students. We have recently commenced a new trial of the package in the ethnically diverse Xishuangbanna autonomous prefecture in Yunnan province and the approach is also being tested in West Africa, with further expansion into the Philippines in 2015. Conclusions: The work in China illustrates well the direct impact that health education can have in improving knowledge and awareness, and in changing hygiene behaviour. Further, it can provide insight into the public health outcomes of a multi-component integrated control program, where health education prevents re-infection and periodic drug treatment reduces prevalence and morbidity.

Simultaneous localization and planning on multiple map hypotheses

This paper presents a novel method to rank map hypotheses by the quality of localization they afford. The highest ranked hypothesis at any moment becomes the active representation that is used to guide the robot to its goal location. A single static representation is insufficient for navigation in dynamic environments where paths can be blocked periodically, a common scenario which poses significant challenges for typical planners. In our approach we simultaneously rank multiple map hypotheses by the influence that localization in each of them has on locally accurate odometry. This is done online for the current locally accurate window by formulating a factor graph of odometry relaxed by localization constraints. Comparison of the resulting perturbed odometry of each hypothesis with the original odometry yields a score that can be used to rank map hypotheses by their utility. We deploy the proposed approach on a real robot navigating a structurally noisy office environment. The configuration of the environment is physically altered outside the robots sensory horizon during navigation tasks to demonstrate the proposed approach of hypothesis selection.

4DCT radiotherapy for NSCLC: A review of planning methods

Purpose To establish whether the use of a passive or active technique of planning target volume (PTV) definition and treatment methods for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) deliver the most effective results. This literature review assesses the advantages and disadvantages in recent studies of each, while assessing the validity of the two approaches for planning and treatment. Methods A systematic review of literature focusing on the planning and treatment of radiation therapy to NSCLC tumours. Different approaches which have been published in recent articles are subjected to critical appraisal in order to determine their relative efficacy. Results Free-breathing (FB) is the optimal method to perform planning scans for patients and departments, as it involves no significant increase in cost, workload or education. Maximum intensity projection (MIP) is the fastest form of delineation, however it is noted to be less accurate than the ten-phase overlap approach for computed tomography (CT). Although gating has proven to reduce margins and facilitate sparing of organs at risk, treatment times can be longer and planning time can be as much as 15 times higher for intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). This raises issues with patient comfort and stabilisation, impacting on the chance of geometric miss. Stereotactic treatments can take up to 3 hours to treat, along with increases in planning and treatment, as well as the additional hardware, software and training required. Conclusion Four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) is superior to 3DCT, with the passive FB approach for PTV delineation and treatment optimal. Departments should use a combination of MIP with visual confirmation ensuring coverage for stage 1 disease. Stages 2-3 should be delineated using ten-phases overlaid. Stereotactic and gated treatments for early stage disease should be used accordingly; FB-IMRT is optimal for latter stage disease.

Re-framing planning decision-making : increasing flood resilience in Jakarta

Purpose – Rapid urbanisation, fragmented governance and recurrent flooding complicates resolution of DKI Jakarta’s chronic housing shortage. Failure to effectively implement planning decisionmaking processes poses potential human rights violations. Contemporary planning policy requires the relocation of households living in floodplains within fifteen metres of DKI Jakarta’s main watercourses; further constraining land availability and potentially requiring increased densification. The purpose of this paper is to re-frame planning decision-making to address risks of flooding and to increase community resilience. Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for a technologically enhanced participatory planning method, incorporating synthesis of existing information on urbanisation, governance, and flood risk management in Jakarta. Findings – Responsibility for flood risk management in DKI Jakarta is fragmented both within and across administrative boundaries. Decision-making is further complicated by: limited availability of land use data; uncertainty as to the delineated extent of watercourses, floodplains, and flood modelling; unclear risk and liability for infrastructure investments; and technical literacy of both public and government participants. Practical implications – This research provides information to facilitate consultation with government entities tasked with re-framing planning processes to increase public participation. Social implications – Reduction in risk exposure amongst DKI Jakarta’s most vulnerable populations addresses issues of social justice.

A case study of the Iranian national railway and its absolute capacity expansion using analytical models

Identifying railway capacity is an important task that can identify "in principal" whether the network can handle an intended traffic flow, and whether there is any free capacity left for additional train services. Capacity determination techniques can also be used to identify how best to improve an existing network, and at least cost. In this article an optimization approach has been applied to a case study of the Iran national railway, in order to identify its current capacity and to optimally expand it given a variety of technical conditions. This railway is very important in Iran and will be upgraded extensively in the coming years. Hence the conclusions in this article may help in that endeavor. A sensitivity analysis is recommended to evaluate a wider range of possible scenarios. Hence more useful lower and upper bounds can be provided for the performance of the system

Little boxes : changing perceptions and including young people in socially sustainable participatory planning

In recent years, a great deal has been written about the benefits and ethics of including young people in participative decision-making. This has been accompanied by a burgeoning interest in including their views in participatory planning exercises that has not always been realised in practice. Drawing on a detailed analysis of the perceptions of adults and young people involved in a participatory planning exercise on Australia‟s Gold Coast, we believe that there are two major hurdles to the „full‟ engagement of young people that are in some respects two sides of the same coin: the sometimes paternalistic perceptions and often dismissive attitude that many adults have towards the participation of young people; and the perceptions that young people may have of themselves and their subordinate place in an adult-dominated planning environment. Together, such views act to place limitations on the participation of young people because they set up unrealistic expectations for both adult and younger participants in terms of how and why young people participate, and what this participation should „look and feel‟ like. In this paper, through the metaphor of boxes, we propose a number of issues that should be addressed when involving young people in participatory planning processes to ensure the most from their participation for all involved.

Surveying the Wide Bay Burnett : changing lifestyles and the implications for regional transport planning

Significant lifestyle and demographic changes in Queensland are beginning to alter the landscape of regional transport planning. In 2006, Queensland Transport undertook a study to understand the implications of these changes on the transport planning task in regional Queensland. The study focused on the current travel characteristics of three Local Government Areas in the Wide Bay Burnett Region. Hervey Bay City represented the ‘sea change’ phenomenon; Wondai Shire represented the growing ‘tree change’ lifestyle; and Monto Shire represented communities which were either experiencing limited change or a decrease in population. The results of this research will be used to inform long term integrated regional transport planning in the region.

A critical success factors model for enterprise resource planning implementation

Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems are integrated enterprise-wide standard information systems that automate all aspects of an organisations’ business processes. The ERP philosophy is that business systems incorporating sales, marketing, manufacturing, distribution, personnel and finance modules can be supported by a single integrated system with all of the company’s data captured in a central database. The ERP packages of vendors such as SAP, Baan, J.D. Edwards and Intentia represent more than a common systems platform for a business. They prescribe information blueprints of how organisation’s business processes should operate. In this paper, the scale and strategic importance of ERP systems is identified and the problem of ERP implementation is defined. Five company examples are analysed using a Critical Success Factors (CSFs) theoretical framework. The paper offers a framework for managers which provides the basis for developing an ERP implementation strategy. The case analysis identifies different approaches to ERP implementation, highlights the critical role of legacy systems in influencing the implementation process, and identifies the importance of business process change and software configuration in addition to factors already cited in the literature such as top management support and communication. The implications of the results and future research opportunities are outlined.