Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

High resolution surface wind fields covering the global ocean, estimated from remotely sensed wind data and ECMWF wind analyses, have been available since 2005 with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees in longitude and latitude, and a temporal resolution of 6h. Their quality is investigated through various comparisons with surface wind vectors from 190 buoys moored in various oceanic basins, from research vessels and from QuikSCAT scatterometer data taken during 2005-2006. The NCEP/NCAR and NCDC blended wind products are also considered. The comparisons performed during January-December 2005 show that speeds and directions compare well to in-situ observations, including from moored buoys and ships, as well as to the remotely sensed data. The root-mean-squared differences of the wind speed and direction for the new blended wind data are lower than 2m/s and 30 degrees, respectively. These values are similar to those estimated in the comparisons of hourly buoy measurements and QuickSCAT near real time retrievals. At global scale, it is found that the new products compare well with the wind speed and wind vector components observed by QuikSCAT. No significant dependencies on the QuikSCAT wind speed or on the oceanic region considered are evident.Evaluation of high-resolution surface wind products at global and regional scales

First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Detection of solar dimming and brightening effects on Northern Hemisphere river flow

Anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere have the potential to affect regional-scale land hydrology through solar dimming. Increased aerosol loading may have reduced historical surface evaporation over some locations, but the magnitude and extent of this effect is uncertain. Any reduction in evaporation due to historical solar dimming may have resulted in an increase in river flow. Here we formally detect and quantify the historical effect of changing aerosol concentrations, via solar radiation, on observed river flow over the heavily industrialized, northern extra-tropics. We use a state-of-the-art estimate of twentieth century surface meteorology as input data for a detailed land surface model, and show that the simulations capture the observed strong inter-annual variability in runoff in response to climatic fluctuations. Using statistical techniques, we identify a detectable aerosol signal in the observed river flow both over the combined region, and over individual river basins in Europe and North America. We estimate that solar dimming due to rising aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere around 1980 led to an increase in river runoff by up to 25% in the most heavily polluted regions in Europe. We propose that, conversely, these regions may experience reduced freshwater availability in the future, as air quality improvements are set to lower aerosol loading and solar dimming.

Rapid changes in the redox conditions of the western Tethys Ocean during the early Aptian oceanic anoxic event

The early Aptian (125 to 121 Ma) records an episode of severe environmental change including a major perturbation of the carbon cycle, an oceanic anoxic event (OAE 1a, 122.5 Ma), a platform drowning episode and a biocalcification crisis. We propose to trace changes in the oxygenation state of the ocean during the early Aptian anoxic event using the redox-sensitive trace-element (RSTE) distribution, phosphorus accumulation rates (PARs) and organic-matter characterization in three different basins of the western Tethys. The following sections have been investigated: Gorgo a Cerbara (central Italy) in the Umbria Marche basin, Glaise (SE France) in the Vocontian basin and Cassis/La Bédoule (SE France) located in the Provencal basin. In the Gorgo a Cerbara section, RSTE distributions show a low background level along the main part of the section, contrasted by different maxima in concentrations within the Selli level. In the Glaise section, the Goguel level displays a weak increase in RSTE contents coeval with moderate TOC values. At Cassis/La Bédoule, no significant RSTE enrichments have been observed in sediments equivalent to the Selli level. These differences in the records of the geochemical proxies of the Selli level or its equivalent indicate the deposition under different redox conditions, probably related to the paleogeography. Our data indicate the development of anoxic–euxinic conditions in the deeper part of the Tethys during OAE 1a, whereas in the shallower environments, conditions were less reducing. Moreover, at Gorgo a Cerbara, the Selli level is characterized by rapid changes in the intensity of reducing conditions in the water column. Ocean eutrophication seems to be a major factor in the development and the persistence of anoxia as suggested by the PAR evolution. Higher PAR values at the onset of OAE 1a suggest an increase in nutrient input, whereas the return to lower values through the first part of the OAE 1a interval may be related to the weakened capacity to retain P in the sedimentary reservoir due to bottom-water oxygen depletion. This general pattern is contrasted by the data of Gorgo a Cerbara, where the sediments deposited during the OAE 1a interval show P-enrichments (mainly authigenic P). This is associated with maxima in TOC values and Corg:Ptot ratios, suggesting that a part of the remobilized P was trapped in the sediments and as such prevented from returning to the water column.

Palaeoenvironmental changes during the Valanginian: new insights from variations in phosphorus contents and bulk- and clay mineralogies in the western Tethys

Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic changes during the Valanginian carbon isotopic excursion (CIE) have been investigated in the western Tethys. For this purpose, bulk-rock and clay mineralogies, as well as phosphorus (P) contents were evaluated in a selection of five sections located in the Vocontian Basin (Angles, SE France; Alvier, E Switzerland; Malleval, E France), and the Lombardian Basin (Capriolo, N Italy; Breggia, S Switzerland). Within the CIE interval, bulk-rock and clay mineralogies are inferred to reflect mostly climate change. The onset of the CIE (Busnardoites campylotoxus ammonite Zone) is characterized by higher detrital index (DI: sum of the detrital minerals divided by calcite contents) values and the presence of kaolinite in their clay-mineral assemblages. In the late Valanginian (from the Saynoceras verrucosum Zone up to the end of the Valanginian), the samples show relatively variable DI and lower values or the absence of kaolinite. The variation in the mineralogical composition is interpreted as reflecting a change from a climate characterized by optimal weathering conditions associated with an increase in terrigenous input on the southern European margin during the CIE towards an overall unstable climate associated with drier conditions in the late Valanginian. This is contrasted by a dissymmetry (proximal vs distal) along the studied transect, the northern Tethyan margin being more sensitive to changes in continental input compared to the distal environments. P accumulation rates (PAR) present similar features. In the Vocontian basin, P content variations are associated with changes in terrigenous influx, whereas in the Lombardian basin (i.e. Capriolo and Breggia), PAR values are less well correlated. This is mainly because the deeper part of the Tethys was less sensitive to changes in continental inputs. The onset of the CIE (top of the B. campylotoxus Zone) records a general increase in PAR suggesting an increase in marine nutrient levels. This is linked to higher continental weathering rates and the enhanced influx of nutrients into the ocean. In the period corresponding to the shift itself, P contents show a dissymmetry between the Vocontian and Lombardian basins (proximal vs distal). For the sections of Malleval, Alvier and Angles, a decrease in P concentrations associated to a decrease in detrital input is observed. In Capriolo and Breggia, PAR show maximum values during the plateau, indicating a more complex interaction between different P sources. The time interval including the top of S. verrucosum Zone up to the end of the Valanginian is characterized by variable PAR values, suggesting variable nutrient influxes. These changes are in agreement with an evolution towards seasonally contrasted conditions in the late Valanginian.

Objective determination of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

Extratropical transition (ET) has eluded objective identification since the realisation of its existence in the 1970s. Recent advances in numerical, computational models have provided data of higher resolution than previously available. In conjunction with this, an objective characterisation of the structure of a storm has now become widely accepted in the literature. Here we present a method of combining these two advances to provide an objective method for defining ET. The approach involves applying K-means clustering to isolate different life-cycle stages of cyclones and then analysing the progression through these stages. This methodology is then tested by applying it to five recent years from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting operational analyses. It is found that this method is able to determine the general characteristics for ET in the Northern Hemisphere. Between 2008 and 2012, 54% (±7, 32 of 59) of Northern Hemisphere tropical storms are estimated to undergo ET. There is great variability across basins and time of year. To fully capture all the instances of ET is necessary to introduce and characterise multiple pathways through transition. Only one of the three transition types needed has been previously well-studied. A brief description of the alternate types of transitions is given, along with illustrative storms, to assist with further study

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

Glacial lake drainage in Patagonia (13-8 kyr) and response of the adjacent Pacific Ocean

Large freshwater lakes formed in North America and Europe during deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum. Rapid drainage of these lakes into the Oceans resulted in abrupt perturbations in climate, including the Younger Dryas and 8.2 kyr cooling events. In the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere major glacial lakes also formed and drained during deglaciation but little is known about the magnitude, organization and timing of these drainage events and their e ect on regional climate. We use 16 new single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates to de ne three stages of rapid glacial lake drainage in the Lago General Carrera/Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Cohrane/ Pueyrredón basins of Patagonia and provide the rst assessment of the e ects of lake drainage on the Paci c Ocean. Lake drainage occurred between 13 and 8 kyr ago and was initially gradual eastward into the Atlantic, then subsequently reorganized westward into the Paci c as new drainage routes opened up during Patagonian Ice Sheet deglaciation. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments using HadCM3 with an imposed freshwater surface “hosing” to simulate glacial lake drainage suggest that a negative salinity anomaly was advected south around Cape Horn, resulting in brief but signi cant impacts on coastal ocean vertical mixing and regional climate.

Reappraisal of the effective elastic thickness for the sub-Andes using 3-D finite element flexural modelling, gravity and geological constraints

P>Estimates of effective elastic thickness (T(e)) for the western portion of the South American Plate using, independently, forward flexural modelling and coherence analysis, suggest different thermomechanical properties for the same continental lithosphere. We present a review of these T(e) estimates and carry out a critical reappraisal using a common methodology of 3-D finite element method to solve a differential equation for the bending of a thin elastic plate. The finite element flexural model incorporates lateral variations of T(e) and the Andes topography as the load. Three T(e) maps for the entire Andes were analysed: Stewart & Watts (1997), Tassara et al. (2007) and Perez-Gussinye et al. (2007). The predicted flexural deformation obtained for each T(e) map was compared with the depth to the base of the foreland basin sequence. Likewise, the gravity effect of flexurally induced crust-mantle deformation was compared with the observed Bouguer gravity. T(e) estimates using forward flexural modelling by Stewart & Watts (1997) better predict the geological and gravity data for most of the Andean system, particularly in the Central Andes, where T(e) ranges from greater than 70 km in the sub-Andes to less than 15 km under the Andes Cordillera. The misfit between the calculated and observed foreland basin subsidence and the gravity anomaly for the Maranon basin in Peru and the Bermejo basin in Argentina, regardless of the assumed T(e) map, may be due to a dynamic topography component associated with the shallow subduction of the Nazca Plate beneath the Andes at these latitudes.

Population structure of the migratory fish Prochilodus lineatus (Characiformes) from rio Grande basin (Brazil), an area fragmented by dams

1. Prochilodus lineatus (Prochilodontidae, Characiformes) is a migratory species of great economic importance both in fisheries and aquaculture that is found throughout the Jacui, Paraiba do Sul, Parana, Paraguay and Uruguay river basins in South America. Earlier population studies of P. lineatus in the rio Grande basin (Parana basin) indicated the existence of a single population; however, the range of this species has been fragmented by the construction of several dams. Such dams modified the environmental conditions and could have constrained the reproductive migration of P. lineatus, possibly leading to changes in the population genetic structure. 2. In order to evaluate how genetic diversity is allocated in the rio Grande basin, 141 specimens of P. lineatus from eight collection sites were analysed using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) with 15 restriction enzymes. 3. Forty-six haplotypes were detected, and 70% of them are restricted. The mean genetic variability indexes (h = 0.7721 and pi = 1.6%) were similar to those found in natural populations with a large effective size. Fst and Exact Test values indicated a lack of structuring among the samples, and the model of isolation by distance was tested and rejected. 4. The haplotype network indicated that this population of P. lineatus has been maintained as a single variable stock with some differences in the genetic composition (haplotypes) between samples. Indications of population expansion were detected, and this finding was supported by neutrality tests and mismatch distribution analyses. 5. The present study focused on regions between dams to serve as a parameter for further evaluations of genetic variability and the putative impact of dams and repopulation programmes in natural populations of P. lineatus. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparative Cytogenetics and Molecular Phylogeography in the Group Astyanax altiparanae - Astyanax aff. bimaculatus (Teleostei, Characidae)

The genus Astyanax comprises small characin fish of the neotropical region. The so-called `yellow-tailed characins` compose one of the most widely distributed Astyanax groups. A. altiparanae and A. aff. bimaculatus, are evolutionarily closely related and commonly found in several Brazilian hydrographic basins. In the present work, chromosomal data of specimens of A. altiparanae and A. aff. bimaculatus from 4 hydrographic basins in the states of Sao Paulo (Upper Tiete, Paranapanema, Ribeira de Iguape) and Rio de Janeiro (Guapimirim) are shown. All the populations showed 50 chromosomes, with different karyotypic formula. Although only a single Ag-NOR bearing chromosome pair was observed, all populations possess multiple cistrons of 18S rDNA. FISH with the 5S rDNA probe showed single signals at the interstitial position of one metacentric chromosome pair. C-bands are distributed in the terminal and interstitial regions of several chromosomes. However, the As-51 satDNA are frugally located in a few chromosomes of fishes from Upper Tiete, Paranapanema and Guapimirim Rivers, being absent in individuals of A. aff. bimaculatus from Ribeira de Iguape River basin. Beside these 4 populations, molecular phylogeography studies were also performed in individuals from Middle and Lower Tiete River basin and from 2 additional collection sites in the Paranapanema and Ribeira de Iguape River basins. The phylogeographic analysis using 2 mtDNA regions (totalizing 1.314 bp of ND2 and ATPase6/8 genes) of 8 populations of the group of `yellow-tailed characins` from 3 major hydrographic basins showed structuring of populations, suggesting a correlation between chromosomal (nuclear) and molecular (mitochondrial) data. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Cytotype-specific ISSR profiles and karyotypes in the Neotropical genus Eigenmannia (Teleostei: Gymnotiformes)

The genus Eigenmannia (Teleostei: Gymnotiformes), a widely distributed fish genus from the Neotropical region, presents very complex morphological patterns and many taxonomic problems. It is suggested that this genus harbors a species complex that is hard to differentiate using only morphological characteristics. As a result, many species of Eigenmannia may be currently gathered under a common name. With the objective of providing new tools for species characterization in this group, an analysis of the polymorphism of DNA inter-simple sequence repeats (ISSR), obtained by single primer amplification reaction (SPAR), combined with karyotype identification, was carried out in specimens sampled from populations of the Upper Parana, So Francisco and Amazon river basins (Brazil). Specific ISSR patterns generated by primers (AAGC)(4) and (GGAC)(4) were found to characterize the ten cytotypes analyzed, even though the cytotypes 2n = 38 and 2n = 38 XX:XY, from the Upper Parana basin, share some ISSR amplification patterns. The geographical distribution of all Eigenmannia specimens sampled was inferred, showing the cytotype 2n = 31/2n = 32 as the most frequent and largely distributed in the Upper Parana basin. The cytotype 2n = 34 was reported for the first time in the genus Eigenmania, restricted to the So Francisco basin. Polymorphic ISSR patterns were also detected for each cytotype. Considering our results and the data reported previously in the literature, it is suggested that many of the forms of Eigenmannia herein analyzed might be regarded as different species. This work reinforces the importance of employing diverse approaches, such as molecular and cytogenetic characterization, to address taxonomic and evolutionary issues.

Comparative chromosomal analyses in species of the genus Pimelodella (Siluriformes, Heptapteridae): occurrence of structural and numerical polymorphisms

Cytogenetic analyses were carried out in five species of Pimelodella from the main sub-basins of Upper Parana River and Paraiba do Sul River. The diploid number ranged from 2n = 46 to 2n = 58 chromosomes, and all populations differed in the karyotype constitution. The presence of supernumerary chromosomes as well as the occurrence of a XX/XY sex chromosome system and heterochromatin polymorphisms were detected. The 18S rDNA FISH confirmed the presence of single NORs and revealed additional sites on supernumerary chromosomes. The number and location of 5S rDNA sites were variable. Aspects related to the karyotypic evolution within the genus are discussed.

Cytogenetic characterization of Metynnis maculatus (Teleostei; Characiformes): the description in Serrasalminae of a small B chromosome bearing inactive NOR-like sequences

Mitotic chromosomes of Metynnis maculatus (KNER 1860) (Teleostei, Characiformes), a fish species that occurs in the Amazon and Parana-Paraguay river basins, were analyzed for the first time by Giemsa and Ag-NOR staining, C-banding and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with 18S and 5S rDNA sequences. The basic chromosome number of the species is 2n=62 (32M+22SM+4ST+4A) and, in addition to the 62 regular chromosomes, one small acrocentric supernumerary B chromosome was found in part of the specimens analyzed. Four active NORs were present, and constitutive heterochromatin blocks were found in the pericentromeric region of several chromosomes. A heterochromatic block was also present in the interstitial portion of the submetacentric NOR-bearing pair and the B chromosome was entirely heterochromatic. FISH using an 18S rDNA probe confirmed the results obtained with AgNO(3) staining, and an additional signal was also present on the B chromosomes. 5S rDNA sequences mapped only to the largest acrocentric pair. This is the first description of supernumerary B chromosomes in Serrasalminae, and this karyotype characterization may be useful in further studies about chromosome evolution in this fish group.

Potamotrygon tigrina, a new species of freshwater stingray from the upper Amazon basin, closely related to Potamotrygon schroederi Fernandez-Yepez, 1958 (Chondrichthyes: Potamotrygonidae)

A new species of Neotropical freshwater stingray, family Potamotrygonidae, is described from the Rio Nanay in the upper Rio Amazonas basin of Peru. Potamotrygon tigrina, n. sp., is easily distinguished from all congeners by its conspicuous dorsal disc coloration, composed of bright yellow to orange vermiculations strongly interwoven with a dark-brown to deep-black background. Additional features that in combination diagnose P. tigrina, n. sp., include the presence of a single angular cartilage, low and not closely grouped dorsal tail spines, and coloration of tail composed of relatively wide and alternating bands of creamy white and dark brown to black. Potamotrygon tigrina is closely related to Potamotrygon schroederi Fernandez-Yepez, 1958, which occurs in the Rio Negro (Brazil) and Rio Orinoco (Venezuela, Colombia). Both species are very similar in proportions and counts, and share features hypothesized to be derived within Potamotrygonidae, related to their specific angular cartilage morphology, distal tail color, dorsal tail-spine pattern, and ventral lateral-line system. To further substantiate the description of P. tigrina, n. sp., we provide a redescription of P. schroederi based on material from the Rio Negro (Brazil) and Rio Orinoco (Venezuela). Specimens from the two basins differ in number of vertebral centra and slightly in size and frequency of rosettes on dorsal disc, distinctions that presently do not warrant their specific separation. Potamotrygon tigrina is frequently commercialized in the international aquarium trade but virtually nothing is known of its biology or conservation status.