Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change

Climate change affects both economy and society in several ways throughout the world. Therefore, well-targeted global and regional actions must be taken. In this paper I assess the different options for climate change mitigation policies and analyse the possibilities of adaptation methods. I will focus on three aspects: cost-efficiency, innovation and flexibility.

Seasonal dynamic pattern analysis in service of climate change research. A methodical case-study - monitoring and simulation based on an aquatic insect community

Our aim was to approach an important and well-investigable phenomenon – connected to a relatively simple but real field situation – in such a way, that the results of field observations could be directly comparable with the predictions of a simulation model-system which uses a simple mathematical apparatus and to simultaneously gain such a hypothesis-system, which creates the theoretical opportunity for a later experimental series of studies. As a phenomenon of the study, we chose the seasonal coenological changes of aquatic and semiaquatic Heteroptera community. Based on the observed data, we developed such an ecological model-system, which is suitable for generating realistic patterns highly resembling to the observed temporal patterns, and by the help of which predictions can be given to alternative situations of climatic circumstances not experienced before (e.g. climate changes), and furthermore; which can simulate experimental circumstances. The stable coenological state-plane, which was constructed based on the principle of indirect ordination is suitable for unified handling of data series of monitoring and simulation, and also fits for their comparison. On the state-plane, such deviations of empirical and model-generated data can be observed and analysed, which could otherwise remain hidden.

Impacts of climate change on Lepidoptera species and communities

In this review, the impacts of climate change on Lepidoptera species and communities are summarized, regarding already registered changes in case of individual species and assemblies, and possible future effects. These include changes in abundance, distribution ranges (altitude above sea level, geographical distribution), phenology (earlier or later flying, number of generations per year). The paper also contains a short description of the observed impacts of single factors and conditions (temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, drought, predators and parasitoids, UV-B radiation) affecting the life of moths and butterflies, and recorded monitoring results of changes in the Lepidoptera communities of some observed areas. The review is closed with some theoretical considerations concerning the characteristics of “winner” species and also the features and conditions needed for a successful invasion, conquest of new territories.

Climate change and freshwater zooplankton: what does it boil down to?

Recently, major advances in the climate–zooplankton interface have been made some of which appeared to receive much attention in a broader audience of ecologists as well. In contrast to the marine realm, however, we still lack a more holistic summary of recent knowledge in freshwater. We discuss climate change-related variation in physical and biological attributes of lakes and running waters, high-order ecological functions, and subsequent alteration in zooplankton abundance, phenology, distribution, body size, community structure, life history parameters, and behavior by focusing on community level responses. The adequacy of large-scale climatic indices in ecology has received considerable support and provided a framework for the interpretation of community and species level responses in freshwater zooplankton. Modeling perspectives deserve particular consideration, since this promising stream of ecology is of particular applicability in climate change research owing to the inherently predictive nature of this field. In the future, ecologists should expand their research on species beyond daphnids, should address questions as to how different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers interact, should move beyond correlative approaches toward more mechanistic explanations, and last but not least, should facilitate transfer of biological data both across space and time.

Climate change and plankton phenology in freshwater: current trends and future commitments

A solid body of empirical, experimental and theoretical evidence accumulated over recent years indicated that freshwater plankton experienced advance in phenology in response to climate change. Despite rapidly growing evidence for phenological changes, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how climate change alters plankton phenology in freshwater. To overcome current limitations, we need to shed some light on trends and constraints in current research. The goal of this study is to identify current trends and gaps based on analysis of selected papers, by the help of which we can facilitate further advance in the field. We searched the literature for plankton phenology and confined our search to studies where climate change has been proposed to alter plankton phenology and rates of changes were quantified. We did not restrict our search for empirical ontributions; experimental and theoretical studies were considered as well. In the following we discuss the spatio-temporal setting of selected studies, contributions of different taxonomic groups, emerging methodological constraints, measures of phenological trends; and finally give a list of recommendations on how to improve our understanding in the field. The majority of studies were confined to deep lakes with a skewed geographical distribution toward Central Europe, where scientists have long been engaged in limnology. Despite these findings, recent studies suggest that plankton in running waters may experience change in phenology with similar magnitude. Average rate of advancement in phenology of freshwater plankton exceeded those of the marine plankton and the global average. Increasing study duration was not coupled either with increasing contribution of discontinuous data or with increasing rates of phenological changes. Future studies may benefit from i) delivering longterm data across scientific and political boundaries; ii) extending study sites to broader geographical areas with a more explicit consideration of running waters; iii) applying plankton functional groups; iv) increasing the application of satellite data to quantify phytoplankton bloom phenology; v) extending analyses of time series beyond the spring period; vi) using various metrics to quantify variation in phenology; vii) combining empirical, experimental and theoretical approaches; and last but not least viii) paying more attention to emergence dynamics, nonresponding species and trophic mismatch.

The combined impact of urban heat island, thermal bridge effect of buildings and future climate change on the potential overwintering of Phlebotomus species in a Central European metropolis

Leishmaniasis is one of the most important emerging vector-borne diseases in Western Eurasia. Although winter minimum temperatures limit the present geographical distribution of the vector Phlebotomus species, the heat island effect of the cities and the anthropogenic heat emission together may provide the appropriate environment for the overwintering of sand flies. We studied the climate tempering effect of thermal bridges and the heat island effect in Budapest, Hungary. Thermal imaging was used to measure the heat surplus of heat bridges. The winter heat island effect of the city was evaluated by numerical analysis of the measurements of the Aqua sensor of satellite Terra. We found that the surface temperature of thermal bridges can be at least 3-7 °C higher than the surrounding environment. The heat emission of thermal bridges and the urban heat island effect together can cause at least 10 °C higher minimum ambient temperature in winter nights than the minimum temperature of the peri-urban areas. This milder micro-climate of the built environment can enable the potential overwintering of some important European Phlebotomus species. The anthropogenic heat emission of big cities may explain the observed isolated northward populations of Phlebotomus ariasi in Paris and Phlebotomus neglectus in the agglomeration of Budapest.

The effect of climate change on the potential distribution of the European Phlebotomus species and the parasite Leishmania infantum in 2011-2070. A climate envelope modeling approach

Aims: In the Mediterranean areas of Europe, leishmanisasis is one of the most emerging vector-borne diseases. Members of genus Phlebotomus are the primary vectors of the genus Leishmania. To track the human health effect of climate change it is a very important interdisciplinary question to study whether the climatic requirements and geographical distribution of the vectors of human pathogen organisms correlate with each other. Our study intended to explore the potential effects of ongoing climate change, in particular through a potential upward altitudinal and latitudinal shift of the distribution of the parasite Leishmania infantum, its vectors Phlebotomus ariasi, P. neglectus, P. perfiliewi, P. perniciosus, and P. tobbi, and some other sandfly species: P. papatasi, P. sergenti, and P. similis. Methods: By using a climate envelope modelling (CEM) method we modelled the current and future (2011-2070) potential distribution of 8 European sandfly species and L. infantum based on the current distribution using the REMO regional climate model. Results: We found that by the end of the 2060’s most parts of Western Europe can be colonized by sandfly species, mostly by P. ariasi and P. pernicosus. P. ariasi showed the greatest potential northward expansion. For all the studied vectors of L. infantum the entire Mediterranean Basin and South-Eastern Europe seemed to be suitable. L. infantum can affect the Eastern Mediterranean, without notable northward expansion. Our model resulted 1 to 2 months prolongation of the potentially active period of P. neglectus P. papatasi and P. perniciosus for the 2060’s in Southern Hungary. Conclusion: Our findings confirm the concerns that leishmanisais can become a real hazard for the major part of the European population to the end of the 21th century and the Carpathian Basin is a particularly vulnerable area.

A multi-scale assessment of physiological processes in arctic tundra plants under natural and simulated climate change scenarios

Climate warming is predicted to cause an increase in the growing season by as much as 30% for regions of the arctic tundra. This will have a significant effect on the physiological activity of the vascular plant species and the ecosystem as a whole. The need to understand the possible physiological change within this ecosystem is confounded by the fact that research in this extreme environment has been limited to periods when conditions are most favorable, mid June–mid August. This study attempted to develop the most comprehensive understanding to date of the physiological activity of seven tundra plant species in the Alaskan Arctic under natural and lengthened growing season conditions. Four interrelated lines of research, scaling from cellular signals to ecosystem processes, set the foundation for this study. ^ I established an experiment looking at the physiological response of arctic sedges to soil temperature stress with emphasis on the role of the hormone abscisic acid (ABA). A manipulation was also developed where the growing season was lengthened and soils were warmed in an attempt to determine the maximum physiological capacity of these seven vascular species. Additionally, the physiological capacities of four evergreens were tested in the subnivean environment along with the potential role anthocyanins play in their activity. The measurements were scaled up to determine the physiological role of these evergreens in maintaining ecosystem carbon fluxes. ^ These studies determined that soil temperature differentials significantly affect vascular plant physiology. ABA appears to be a physiological modifier that limits stomatal processes when root temperatures are low. Photosynthetic capacity was limited by internal plant physiological mechanisms in the face of a lengthened growing season. Therefore shifts in ecosystem carbon dynamics are driven by changes in species composition and biomass production on a per/unit area basis. These studies also found that changes in soil temperatures will have a greater effect of physiological processes than would the same magnitude of change in air temperature. The subnivean environment exhibits conditions that are favorable for photosynthetic activity in evergreen species. These measurements when scaled to the ecosystem have a significant role in limiting the system's carbon source capacity. ^

Understanding China's climate change mitigation policy development: Structures, processes and outcomes

Climate change is one of the most important and urgent issues of our time. Since 2006, China has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. China’s role in an international climate change solution has gained increased attention. Although much literature has addressed the functioning, performance, and implications of existing climate change mitigation policies and actions in China, there is insufficient literature that illuminates how the national climate change mitigation policies have been formulated and shaped. This research utilizes the policy network approach to explore China’s climate change mitigation policy making by examining how a variety of government, business, and civil society actors have formed networks to address environmental contexts and influence the policy outcomes and changes. The study is qualitative in nature. Three cases are selected to illustrate structural and interactive features of the specific policy network settings in shaping different policy arrangements and influencing the outcomes in the Chinese context. The three cases include the regulatory evolution of China’s climate change policy making; the country’s involvement in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activity, and China’s exploration of voluntary agreement through adopting the Top-1000 Industrial Energy Conservation Program. The historical analysis of the policy process uses both primary data from interviews and fieldwork, and secondary data from relevant literature. The study finds that the Chinese central government dominates domestic climate change policy making; however, expanded action networks that involve actors at all levels have emerged in correspondence to diverse climate mitigation policy arrangements. The improved openness and accessibility of climate change policy network have contributed to its proactive engagement in promoting mitigation outcomes. In conclusion, the research suggests that the policy network approach provides a useful tool for studying China’s climate change policy making process. The involvement of various types of state and non-state actors has shaped new relations and affected the policy outcomes and changes. In addition, through the cross-case analysis, the study challenges the “fragmented authoritarianism” model and argues that this once-influential model is not appropriate in explaining new development and changes of policy making processes in contemporary China.

Possible climate change impacts on the hydrological and vegetative character of Everglades National Park, Florida

The increasing threat of global climate change is predicted to have immense influences on ecosystems worldwide, but could be particularly severe to vulnerable wetland environments such as the Everglades. This work investigates the impact global climate change could have on the hydrologic and vegetative makeup of Everglades National Park (ENP) under forecasted emissions scenarios. Using a simple stochastic model of aboveground water levels driven by a fluctuating rainfall input, we link across ENP a location's mean depth and percent time of inundation to the predicted changes in precipitation from climate change. Changes in the hydrologic makeup of ENP are then related to changes in vegetation community composition through the use of relationships developed between two publically available datasets. Results show that under increasing emissions scenarios mean annual precipitation was forecasted to decrease across ENP leading to a marked hydrologic change across the region. Namely, areas were predicted to be shallower in average depth of standing water and inundated less of the time. These hydrologic changes in turn lead to a shift in ENP's vegetative makeup, with xeric vegetative communities becoming more numerous and hydric vegetative communities becoming scarcer. Noticeably, the most widespread of vegetative communities, sawgrass, decreases in abundance under increasing emissions scenarios. These results are an important indicator of the effects climate change may have on the Everglades region and raise important management implications for those seeking to restore this area to its historical hydrologic and vegetative condition.

Climate Change and Regions at Risk: A Look at Central America

Climate change has been a security issue for mankind since Homo sapiens first emerged on the planet, driving him to find new and better food, water, shelter, and basic resources for survival and the advancement of civilization. Only recently, however, has the rate of climate change coupled with man’s knowledge of his own role in that change accelerated, perhaps profoundly, changing the security paradigm. If we take a ―decades‖ look at the security issue, we see competition for natural resources giving way to Cold War ideological containment and deterrence, itself giving way to non-state terrorism and extremism. While we continue to defend against these threats, we are faced with even greater security challenges that inextricably tie economic, food and human security together and where the flash points may not provide clearly discernable causes, as they will be intrinsically tied to climate change. Several scientific reports have revealed that the modest development gains that can be realized by some regions could be reversed by climate change. This means that climate change is not just a long-term environmental threat as was widely believed, but an economic and developmental disaster that is unfolding. As such, addressing climate change has become central to the development and poverty reduction by the World Bank and other financial institutions. In Latin America, poorer countries and communities, such as those found in Central America, will suffer the hardest because of weaker resilience and greater reliance on climatesensitive sectors such as agriculture. The US should attempt to deliver capability to assist these states to deal with the effects of climate change.

Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on Regional Tourism Industry and Economy

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as an empirical study, and the negative change in visitor expenditure between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model appears to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some exploratory efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Climate Change and the Color Line

Climate change is estimated to be responsible for 400,000 deaths per year, mostly because of hunger and communicable diseases affecting children in the Global South. Using the sociology of W.E.B. Du Bois, I attempt to demonstrate how and why climate change occurs along the color line. I conclude by arguing why it is important to think about climate change as a human rights issue.

Climate Change and Globalization: Toward a Deleuzoguattarian Approach in Geography

While there is considerable literature on neoliberalism in and of nature and the environment as well as in the interface between climate change and globalization, attempts at marrying the various conceptualizations of these have been limited. In this paper, I briefly review a portion of the literature on climate change and globalization (both broadly defined) locating the connections and disconnections on the topic. I then attempt to synthesize some of the ideas and problems expressed in many of these existing approaches to develop a Deleuzoguattarian approach to the intersections of climate change and globalization across spaces and scales. Finally, I argue that a non-linear historical materialism provides a way of addressing the limitations in existing frameworks.

Nutrient cycling in Alaskan tundra in response to experimental manipulation of growing season length and soil temperature : a climate change scenario

Climate change in the Arctic is predicted to increase plant productivity through decomposition-related enhanced nutrient availability. However, the extent of the increase will depend on whether the increased nutrient availability can be sustained. To address this uncertainty, I assessed the response of plant tissue nutrients, litter decomposition rates, and soil nutrient availability to experimental climate warming manipulations, extended growing season and soil warming, over a 7 year period. Overall, the most consistent effect was the year-to-year variability in measured parameters, probably a result of large differences in weather and time of snowmelt. The results of this study emphasize that although plants of arctic environments are specifically adapted to low nutrient availability, they also posses a suite of traits that help to reduce nutrient losses such as slow growth, low tissue concentrations, and low tissue turnover that result in subtle responses to environmental changes.