Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L∞. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Changes over time in the spatial distribution of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the Gulf of Alaska, 1984-1996

Triennial bottom trawl survey data from 1984 to 1996 were used to evaluate changes in the summer distribution of walleye pollock in the western and central Gulf of Alaska. Differences between several age groups of pollock were evaluated. Distribution was examined in relation to several physical characteristics, including bottom depth and distance from land. Interspecies associations were also analyzed with the Bray-Curtis clustering technique to better understand community structure. Our results indicated that although the population numbers decreased, high concentrations of pollock remained in the same areas during 1984–96. However, there was an increase in the number of stations where low-density pollock concentrations of all ages were observed, which resulted in a decrease in mean population density of pollock within the GOA region. Patterns emerging from our data suggested an alternative to Mac-Call’s “basin hypothesis” which states that as population numbers decrease, there should be a contraction of the population range to optimal habitats. During 1984–96 there was a concurrent precipitous decline in Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska. The results of our study suggest that decreases in the mean density of adult pollock, the main food in the Steller sea lion diet, combined with slight changes in the distribution of pollock (age-1 pollock in particular) in the mid-1980s, may have contributed to decreased foraging efficiency in Steller sea lions. Our results support the prevailing conceptual model for pollock ontogeny, although there is evidence that substantial spawning may also occur outside of Shelikof Strait.

Strong, low frequency (decadal) environmental fluctuations during the 20th century in the North Pacific Ocean, on the Washington coast, and in Puget Sound

At decadal period (10-20 years), dynamic linkage was evident between atmospheric low pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean and circulation in a Pacific Northwest fjord (Puget Sound). As the Aleutian low pressure center shifts, storms arriving from the North Pacific Ocean deposit varying amounts of precipitation in the mountains draining into the estuarine system; in turn, the fluctuating addition of fresh water changes the density distribution near the fjord basin entrance sill, thereby constraining the fjord's vertical velocity structure. This linkage was examined using time series of 21 environmental parameters from 1899 to 1987. Covariation in the time series was evident because of the strong decadal cycles compared with long-term averages, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles.

Marine Vertebrates and Low Frequency Sound: Technical Report for LFA EIS

Over the past 50 years, economic and technological developments have dramatically increased the human contribution to ambient noise in the ocean. The dominant frequencies of most human-made noise in the ocean is in the low-frequency range (defined as sound energy below 1000Hz), and low-frequency sound (LFS) may travel great distances in the ocean due to the unique propagation characteristics of the deep ocean (Munk et al. 1989). For example, in the Northern Hemisphere oceans low-frequency ambient noise levels have increased by as much as 10 dB during the period from 1950 to 1975 (Urick 1986; review by NRC 1994). Shipping is the overwhelmingly dominant source of low-frequency manmade noise in the ocean, but other sources of manmade LFS including sounds from oil and gas industrial development and production activities (seismic exploration, construction work, drilling, production platforms), and scientific research (e.g., acoustic tomography and thermography, underwater communication). The SURTASS LFA system is an additional source of human-produced LFS in the ocean, contributing sound energy in the 100-500 Hz band. When considering a document that addresses the potential effects of a low-frequency sound source on the marine environment, it is important to focus upon those species that are the most likely to be affected. Important criteria are: 1) the physics of sound as it relates to biological organisms; 2) the nature of the exposure (i.e. duration, frequency, and intensity); and 3) the geographic region in which the sound source will be operated (which, when considered with the distribution of the organisms will determine which species will be exposed). The goal in this section of the LFA/EIS is to examine the status, distribution, abundance, reproduction, foraging behavior, vocal behavior, and known impacts of human activity of those species may be impacted by LFA operations. To focus our efforts, we have examined species that may be physically affected and are found in the region where the LFA source will be operated. The large-scale geographic location of species in relation to the sound source can be determined from the distribution of each species. However, the physical ability for the organism to be impacted depends upon the nature of the sound source (i.e. explosive, impulsive, or non-impulsive); and the acoustic properties of the medium (i.e. seawater) and the organism. Non-impulsive sound is comprised of the movement of particles in a medium. Motion is imparted by a vibrating object (diaphragm of a speaker, vocal chords, etc.). Due to the proximity of the particles in the medium, this motion is transmitted from particle to particle in waves away from the sound source. Because the particle motion is along the same axis as the propagating wave, the waves are longitudinal. Particles move away from then back towards the vibrating source, creating areas of compression (high pressure) and areas of rarefaction (low pressure). As the motion is transferred from one particle to the next, the sound propagates away from the sound source. Wavelength is the distance from one pressure peak to the next. Frequency is the number of waves passing per unit time (Hz). Sound velocity (not to be confused with particle velocity) is the impedance is loosely equivalent to the resistance of a medium to the passage of sound waves (technically it is the ratio of acoustic pressure to particle velocity). A high impedance means that acoustic particle velocity is small for a given pressure (low impedance the opposite). When a sound strikes a boundary between media of different impedances, both reflection and refraction, and a transfer of energy can occur. The intensity of the reflection is a function of the intensity of the sound wave and the impedances of the two media. Two key factors in determining the potential for damage due to a sound source are the intensity of the sound wave and the impedance difference between the two media (impedance mis-match). The bodies of the vast majority of organisms in the ocean (particularly phytoplankton and zooplankton) have similar sound impedence values to that of seawater. As a result, the potential for sound damage is low; organisms are effectively transparent to the sound – it passes through them without transferring damage-causing energy. Due to the considerations above, we have undertaken a detailed analysis of species which met the following criteria: 1) Is the species capable of being physically affected by LFS? Are acoustic impedence mis-matches large enough to enable LFS to have a physical affect or allow the species to sense LFS? 2) Does the proposed SURTASS LFA geographical sphere of acoustic influence overlap the distribution of the species? Species that did not meet the above criteria were excluded from consideration. For example, phytoplankton and zooplankton species lack acoustic impedance mis-matches at low frequencies to expect them to be physically affected SURTASS LFA. Vertebrates are the organisms that fit these criteria and we have accordingly focused our analysis of the affected environment on these vertebrate groups in the world’s oceans: fishes, reptiles, seabirds, pinnipeds, cetaceans, pinnipeds, mustelids, sirenians (Table 1).

Probabilistic amplitude and frequency demodulation

A number of recent scientific and engineering problems require signals to be decomposed into a product of a slowly varying positive envelope and a quickly varying carrier whose instantaneous frequency also varies slowly over time. Although signal processing provides algorithms for so-called amplitude-and frequency-demodulation (AFD), there are well known problems with all of the existing methods. Motivated by the fact that AFD is ill-posed, we approach the problem using probabilistic inference. The new approach, called probabilistic amplitude and frequency demodulation (PAFD), models instantaneous frequency using an auto-regressive generalization of the von Mises distribution, and the envelopes using Gaussian auto-regressive dynamics with a positivity constraint. A novel form of expectation propagation is used for inference. We demonstrate that although PAFD is computationally demanding, it outperforms previous approaches on synthetic and real signals in clean, noisy and missing data settings.

Frequency locked micro disk resonator for real time and precise monitoring of refractive index.

We experimentally demonstrate a frequency modulation locked servo loop, locked to a resonance line of an on-chip microdisk resonator in a silicon nitride platform. By using this approach, we demonstrate real-time monitoring of refractive index variations with a precision approaching 10(-7) RIU, using a moderate Q factor of 10(4). The approach can be applied for intensity independent, dynamic and precise index of refraction monitoring for biosensing applications.

Application of fast oxygen sensors for investigations into air-path dynamics and EGR distribution in a diesel engine

The control of NOX emissions by exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) is of widespread application. However, despite dramatic improvements in all aspects of engine control, the subtle mixing processes that determine the cylinder-to-cylinder distribution of the recirculated gas often results in a mal-distribution that is still an issue for the engine designer and calibrator. In this paper we demonstrate the application of a relatively straightforward technique for the measurement of the absolute and relative dilution quantity in both steady state and transient operation. This was achieved by the use of oxygen sensors based on standard UEGO (universal exhaust gas oxygen) sensors but packaged so as to give good frequency response (∼ 10 ms time constant) and be completely insensitivity to the sample pressure and temperature. Measurements can be made at almost any location of interest, for example exhaust and inlet manifolds as well as EGR path(s), with virtually no flow disturbance. At the same time, the measurements yield insights into air-path dynamics. We argue that "dilution", as indicated by the deviation of the oxygen concentration from that of air, is a more appropriate parameter than EGR rate in the context of NOX control, especially for diesel engines. Experimental results are presented for the EGR distribution in a current production light duty 4-cylinder diesel engine in which significant differences were found in the proportion of the recirculated gas that reached each cylinder. Even the individual inlet runners of the cylinders exhibited very different dilution rates - differences of nearly 50% were observed at some conditions. An application of such data may be in the improvement of calibration and validation of CFD and other modelling techniques. Copyright © 2014 SAE International.

First-passage time distribution and non-Markovian diffusion dynamics of protein folding

We study the kinetics of protein folding via statistical energy landscape theory. We concentrate on the local-connectivity case, where the configurational changes can only occur among neighboring states, with the folding progress described in terms of an order parameter given by the fraction of native conformations. The non-Markovian diffusion dynamics is analyzed in detail and an expression for the mean first-passage time (MFPT) from non-native unfolded states to native folded state is obtained. It was found that the MFPT has a V-shaped dependence on the temperature. We also find that the MFPT is shortened as one increases the gap between the energy of the native and average non-native folded states relative to the fluctuations of the energy landscape. The second- and higher-order moments are studied to infer the first-passage time distribution. At high temperature, the distribution becomes close to a Poisson distribution, while at low temperatures the distribution becomes a Levy-type distribution with power-law tails, indicating a nonself-averaging intermittent behavior of folding dynamics. We note the likely relevance of this result to single-molecule dynamics experiments, where a power law (Levy) distribution of the relaxation time of the underlined protein energy landscape is observed.

Temperature dependence of the distribution of the first passage time: Results from discontinuous molecular dynamics simulations of an all-atom model of the second beta-hairpin fragment of protein G

More than 22 000 folding kinetic simulations were performed to study the temperature dependence of the distribution of first passage time (FPT) for the folding of an all-atom Go-like model of the second beta-hairpin fragment of protein G. We find that the mean FPT (MFPT) for folding has a U (or V)-shaped dependence on the temperature with a minimum at a characteristic optimal folding temperature T-opt*. The optimal folding temperature T-opt* is located between the thermodynamic folding transition temperature and the solidification temperature based on the Lindemann criterion for the solid. Both the T-opt* and the MFPT decrease when the energy bias gap against nonnative contacts increases. The high-order moments are nearly constant when the temperature is higher than T-opt* and start to diverge when the temperature is lower than T-opt*. The distribution of FPT is close to a log-normal-like distribution at T* greater than or equal to T-opt*. At even lower temperatures, the distribution starts to develop long power-law-like tails, indicating the non-self-averaging intermittent behavior of the folding dynamics. It is demonstrated that the distribution of FPT can also be calculated reliably from the derivative of the fraction not folded (or fraction folded), a measurable quantity by routine ensemble-averaged experimental techniques at dilute protein concentrations.