The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Challenges and opportunities for intelligent buildings in the 21st Century

Intelligent buildings should be sustainable, healthy, technologically aware, meet the needs of occupants and business, and should be flexible and adaptable to deal with change. This means the processes of design, construction, commissioning and facilities management including post occupancy evaluation are all equally important. Buildings comprise many systems devised by many people and yet the relationship between buildings and people can only work satisfactorily if there is integrated team with a holistic vision. The address will discuss some trends in the design and management of intelligent buildings for this century.

The cotter's kailyard

An examination of the critical reception of the poetry of Robert Burns from his death in 1796 to the end of the nineteenth century. The essay shows how a selective reading of Burns's poems was used to construct and reinforce moral and political arguments, and argues that the identification of the poet as national Bard influenced ideas about Scottish literature generally in the nineteenth century.