Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

Cristallochemical characterization of synthetic Zn-substituted maghemites (g-Fe2-xZn xO3)

Maghemite (g-Fe2O3) is the most usually found ferrimagnetic oxide in red basalt-derived soils. The variable degrees of ionic substitution of Fe3+ for different metals (e.g. Ti4+, Al3+, Mg2+, Zn2+, and Mn2+) and non-metals in the maghemite structure influence some cristallochemical features of this iron oxide. In this study, synthetic Zn-substituted maghemites were prepared by co-precipitation in alkaline aqueous media of FeSO4.7H2O with increasing amounts of ZnSO4.7H2O to obtain the following sequence of Fe3+ for Zn2+ substitutions: 0.0, 0.025, 0.05, 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, and 0.30 mol mol-1. The objective of this work was to evaluate the cristallochemical alterations of synthetic Zn-substituted maghemites. The dark black synthetic precipitated material was heated to 250 °C during 4 h forming a brownish maghemite that was characterized by chemical analysis as well as X ray diffraction (XRD), specific surface area and mass-specific magnetic susceptibility. The isomorphic substitution levels observed were of 0.0013, 0.0297, 0.0590, 0.1145, 0.1764, 0.2292 and 0.3404 mol mol-1, with the formation of a series of maghemites from Fe2Zn0O3 to Fe(1.49)Zn(0.770)O3 . The increase in Fe3+ for Zn2+ substitution, [Zn mol mol-1] increased the dimension a0 of the cubic unit cells of the studied maghemites according to the regression equation: a0 = 0.8343 + 0.02591Zn (R² = 0.98). On the other hand, the mean crystallite dimension and mass-specific magnetic susceptibility of the studied maghemites decreased with increasing isomorphic substitution.

Prediction of difficult intubation with advanced face recognition techniques: a preliminary study

Introduction: Difficult tracheal intubation remains a constant and significant source of morbidity and mortality in anaesthetic practice. Insufficient airway assessment in the preoperative period continues to be a major cause of unanticipated difficult intubation. Although many risk factors have already been identified, preoperative airway evaluation is not always regarded as a standard procedure and the respective weight of each risk factor remains unclear. Moreover the predictive scores available are not sensitive, moderately specific and often operator-dependant. In order to improve the preoperative detection of patients at risk for difficult intubation, we developed a system for automated and objective evaluation of morphologic criteria of the face and neck using video recordings and advanced techniques borrowed from face recognition. Method and results: Frontal video sequences were recorded in 5 healthy volunteers. During the video recording, subjects were requested to perform maximal flexion-extension of the neck and to open wide the mouth with tongue pulled out. A robust and real-time face tracking system was then applied, allowing to automatically identify and map a grid of 55 control points on the face, which were tracked during head motion. These points located important features of the face, such as the eyebrows, the nose, the contours of the eyes and mouth, and the external contours, including the chin. Moreover, based on this face tracking, the orientation of the head could also be estimated at each frame of the video sequence. Thus, we could infer for each frame the pitch angle of the head pose (related to the vertical rotation of the head) and obtain the degree of head extension. Morphological criteria used in the most frequent cited predictive scores were also extracted, such as mouth opening, degree of visibility of the uvula or thyreo-mental distance. Discussion and conclusion: Preliminary results suggest the high feasibility of the technique. The next step will be the application of the same automated and objective evaluation to patients who will undergo tracheal intubation. The difficulties related to intubation will be then correlated to the biometric characteristics of the patients. The objective in mind is to analyze the biometrics data with artificial intelligence algorithms to build a highly sensitive and specific predictive test.

Tension-band wiring of olecranon fractures - Biomechanical analysis of different fixation techniques

Tension-band wiring is a recognised standard treatment for fixation of olecranon fractures. The classical operation technique is well known and widespread among the orthopaedic surgeons. Nevertheless complications like K-wire migration or skin perforation and difficult technical as well as anatomical prerequisites require better-adapted operation fixation methods. In older female patients a cut through of the Kirschner wires with concomitant secondary displacement was observed. We intent to develop a new, better adapted operation technique for olecranon fractures in the old patients, in order to decrease complications and follow-up procedures. In this study we compare two different K-wire positions: 10 models of the classical AO tension-banding to 10 models with adapted K-wire insertion. In this group the K-wire passes from the tip of the olecranon to the posterior cortical of the distal fragment of the ulna. We tested maximal failure load, maximal opening angle as well as maximal work to achieve maximal force. In either technique we were able to determine different variables: a maximal failure load of more than 600N (p = 0.94) for both fixation methods and a maximal opening angle for both techniques of about 10° (p = 0.86). To achieve the maximal force our modified technique required a slightly increased work (p = 0.16). In this study no statistical significant differences between the two fixation techniques was shown. This leads to the conclusion that the modified version is comparable to the classical operation technique considering the stability, but due to the adaption of the angle in the modified procedure, less lesions of neurovascular structures on the volar side can be expected. To support our findings cadaver studies are needed for further investigations.

Topics, techniques and applications in urban and regional science in the nineties: a bibliometric analysis

The current state of regional and urban science has been much discussed and a number of studies have speculated on possible future trends in the development of the discipline. However, there has been little empirical analysis of current publication patterns in regional and urban journals. This paper studies the kinds of topics, techniques and data used in articles published in nine top international journals during the 1990s with the aim of identifying current trends in this research field

Laparoscopic aortic surgery: Techniques and results.

OBJECTIVE: This review describes and evaluates the results of laparoscopic aortic surgery. METHODS: We describe the different laparoscopic techniques used to treat aortic disease, including (1) total laparoscopic aortic surgery (TLS), (2) laparoscopy-assisted procedures including hand-assisted laparoscopic surgery (HALS), and (3) robot-assisted laparoscopic surgery, with their current indications. Results of these techniques are analyzed in a systematic review of the clinical series published between 1998 and 2008, each containing >10 patients with complete information concerning operative time, clamping time, conversion rate, length of hospital stay, morbidity, and mortality. RESULTS: We selected and reviewed 29 studies that included 1073 patients. Heterogeneity of the studies and selection of the patients made comparison with current open or endovascular surgery difficult. Median operative time varied widely in TLS, from 240 to 391 minutes. HALS had the shortest operating time. Median clamping time varied from 60 to 146 minutes in TLS and was shorter in HALS. Median hospital stay varied from 4 to 10 days regardless of the laparoscopic technique. The postoperative mortality rate was 2.1% (95% confidence interval, 1.4-3.0), with no significant difference between patients treated for occlusive disease or for aneurysmal disease. Conversion to open surgery was necessary in 8.1% of patients and was slightly higher with TLS than with laparoscopy-assisted techniques (P = .07). CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of these series shows that laparoscopic aortic surgery can be performed safely provided that patient selection is adjusted to the surgeon's experience and conversion is liberally performed. The future of this technique in comparison with endovascular surgery is still unknown, and it is now time for multicenter randomized trials to demonstrate the potential benefit of this type of surgery.

Diagnostic techniques applied in geostatistics for agricultural data analysis

The structural modeling of spatial dependence, using a geostatistical approach, is an indispensable tool to determine parameters that define this structure, applied on interpolation of values at unsampled points by kriging techniques. However, the estimation of parameters can be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations in sampled data. The purpose of this study was to use diagnostic techniques in Gaussian spatial linear models in geostatistics to evaluate the sensitivity of maximum likelihood and restrict maximum likelihood estimators to small perturbations in these data. For this purpose, studies with simulated and experimental data were conducted. Results with simulated data showed that the diagnostic techniques were efficient to identify the perturbation in data. The results with real data indicated that atypical values among the sampled data may have a strong influence on thematic maps, thus changing the spatial dependence structure. The application of diagnostic techniques should be part of any geostatistical analysis, to ensure a better quality of the information from thematic maps.

BIO-INSPIRED COMPUTATIONAL TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO THE CLUSTERING AND VISUALIZATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL GEOSPATIAL DATA

The coverage and volume of geo-referenced datasets are extensive and incessantly¦growing. The systematic capture of geo-referenced information generates large volumes¦of spatio-temporal data to be analyzed. Clustering and visualization play a key¦role in the exploratory data analysis and the extraction of knowledge embedded in¦these data. However, new challenges in visualization and clustering are posed when¦dealing with the special characteristics of this data. For instance, its complex structures,¦large quantity of samples, variables involved in a temporal context, high dimensionality¦and large variability in cluster shapes.¦The central aim of my thesis is to propose new algorithms and methodologies for¦clustering and visualization, in order to assist the knowledge extraction from spatiotemporal¦geo-referenced data, thus improving making decision processes.¦I present two original algorithms, one for clustering: the Fuzzy Growing Hierarchical¦Self-Organizing Networks (FGHSON), and the second for exploratory visual data analysis:¦the Tree-structured Self-organizing Maps Component Planes. In addition, I present¦methodologies that combined with FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component¦Planes allow the integration of space and time seamlessly and simultaneously in¦order to extract knowledge embedded in a temporal context.¦The originality of the FGHSON lies in its capability to reflect the underlying structure¦of a dataset in a hierarchical fuzzy way. A hierarchical fuzzy representation of¦clusters is crucial when data include complex structures with large variability of cluster¦shapes, variances, densities and number of clusters. The most important characteristics¦of the FGHSON include: (1) It does not require an a-priori setup of the number¦of clusters. (2) The algorithm executes several self-organizing processes in parallel.¦Hence, when dealing with large datasets the processes can be distributed reducing the¦computational cost. (3) Only three parameters are necessary to set up the algorithm.¦In the case of the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes, the novelty of this algorithm¦lies in its ability to create a structure that allows the visual exploratory data analysis¦of large high-dimensional datasets. This algorithm creates a hierarchical structure¦of Self-Organizing Map Component Planes, arranging similar variables' projections in¦the same branches of the tree. Hence, similarities on variables' behavior can be easily¦detected (e.g. local correlations, maximal and minimal values and outliers).¦Both FGHSON and the Tree-structured SOM Component Planes were applied in¦several agroecological problems proving to be very efficient in the exploratory analysis¦and clustering of spatio-temporal datasets.¦In this thesis I also tested three soft competitive learning algorithms. Two of them¦well-known non supervised soft competitive algorithms, namely the Self-Organizing¦Maps (SOMs) and the Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Maps (GHSOMs); and the¦third was our original contribution, the FGHSON. Although the algorithms presented¦here have been used in several areas, to my knowledge there is not any work applying¦and comparing the performance of those techniques when dealing with spatiotemporal¦geospatial data, as it is presented in this thesis.¦I propose original methodologies to explore spatio-temporal geo-referenced datasets¦through time. Our approach uses time windows to capture temporal similarities and¦variations by using the FGHSON clustering algorithm. The developed methodologies¦are used in two case studies. In the first, the objective was to find similar agroecozones¦through time and in the second one it was to find similar environmental patterns¦shifted in time.¦Several results presented in this thesis have led to new contributions to agroecological¦knowledge, for instance, in sugar cane, and blackberry production.¦Finally, in the framework of this thesis we developed several software tools: (1)¦a Matlab toolbox that implements the FGHSON algorithm, and (2) a program called¦BIS (Bio-inspired Identification of Similar agroecozones) an interactive graphical user¦interface tool which integrates the FGHSON algorithm with Google Earth in order to¦show zones with similar agroecological characteristics.

Topics, techniques and applications in urban and regional science in the nineties: a bibliometric analysis

The current state of regional and urban science has been much discussed and a number of studies have speculated on possible future trends in the development of the discipline. However, there has been little empirical analysis of current publication patterns in regional and urban journals. This paper studies the kinds of topics, techniques and data used in articles published in nine top international journals during the 1990s with the aim of identifying current trends in this research field

Intranasal administration of the synthetic polypeptide from the C-terminus of the circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium berghei with the modified heat-labile toxin of Escherichia coli (LTK63) induces a complete protection against malaria challenge.

Needle-free procedures are very attractive ways to deliver vaccines because they diminish the risk of contamination and may reduce local reactions, pain or pain fear especially in young children with a consequence of increasing the vaccination coverage for the whole population. For this purpose, the possible development of a mucosal malaria vaccine was investigated. Intranasal immunization was performed in BALB/c mice using a well-studied Plasmodium berghei model antigen derived from the circumsporozoite protein with the modified heat-labile toxin of Escherichia coli (LTK63), which is devoid of any enzymatic activity compared to the wild type form. Here, we show that intranasal administration of the two compounds activates the T and B cell immune response locally and systemically. In addition, a total protection of mice is obtained upon a challenge with live sporozoites.