Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

A Generalized Fuzzy Linguistic Model for Predicting Component Concentrations in an Optical Gas Sensing System

Motivated by environmental protection concerns, monitoring the flue gas of thermal power plant is now often mandatory due to the need to ensure that emission levels stay within safe limits. Optical based gas sensing systems are increasingly employed for this purpose, with regression techniques used to relate gas optical absorption spectra to the concentrations of specific gas components of interest (NOx, SO2 etc.). Accurately predicting gas concentrations from absorption spectra remains a challenging problem due to the presence of nonlinearities in the relationships and the high-dimensional and correlated nature of the spectral data. This article proposes a generalized fuzzy linguistic model (GFLM) to address this challenge. The GFLM is made up of a series of “If-Then” fuzzy rules. The absorption spectra are input variables in the rule antecedent. The rule consequent is a general nonlinear polynomial function of the absorption spectra. Model parameters are estimated using least squares and gradient descent optimization algorithms. The performance of GFLM is compared with other traditional prediction models, such as partial least squares, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron neural networks and radial basis function networks, for two real flue gas spectral datasets: one from a coal-fired power plant and one from a gas-fired power plant. The experimental results show that the generalized fuzzy linguistic model has good predictive ability, and is competitive with alternative approaches, while having the added advantage of providing an interpretable model.

A generalized fuzzy linguistic model for predicting component concentrations in an optical gas sensing system

Motivated by environmental protection concerns, monitoring the flue gas of thermal power plant is now often mandatory due to the need to ensure that emission levels stay within safe limits. Optical based gas sensing systems are increasingly employed for this purpose, with regression techniques used to relate gas optical absorption spectra to the concentrations of specific gas components of interest (NO_x, SO₂ etc.). Accurately predicting gas concentrations from absorption spectra remains a challenging problem due to the presence of nonlinearities in the relationships and the high-dimensional and correlated nature of the spectral data. This article proposes a generalized fuzzy linguistic model (GFLM) to address this challenge. The GFLM is made up of a series of “If-Then” fuzzy rules. The absorption spectra are input variables in the rule antecedent. The rule consequent is a general nonlinear polynomial function of the absorption spectra. Model parameters are estimated using least squares and gradient descent optimization algorithms. The performance of GFLM is compared with other traditional prediction models, such as partial least squares, support vector machines, multilayer perceptron neural networks and radial basis function networks, for two real flue gas spectral datasets: one from a coal-fired power plant and one from a gas-fired power plant. The experimental results show that the generalized fuzzy linguistic model has good predictive ability, and is competitive with alternative approaches, while having the added advantage of providing an interpretable model.

An SVM-Fuzzy system design for diabetes risk classification

Prediction of Phosphorylation Sites from Protein Sequences

Phosphorylation is amongst the most crucial and well-studied post-translational modifications. It is involved in multiple cellular processes which makes phosphorylation prediction vital for understanding protein functions. However, wet-lab techniques are labour and time intensive. Thus, computational tools are required for efficiency. This project aims to provide a novel way to predict phosphorylation sites from protein sequences by adding flexibility and Sezerman Grouping amino acid similarity measure to previous methods, as discovering new protein sequences happens at a greater rate than determining protein structures. The predictor – NOPAY - relies on Support Vector Machines (SVMs) for classification. The features include amino acid encoding, amino acid grouping, predicted secondary structure, predicted protein disorder, predicted protein flexibility, solvent accessibility, hydrophobicity and volume. As a result, we have managed to improve phosphorylation prediction accuracy for Homo sapiens by 3% and 6.1% for Mus musculus. Sensitivity at 99% specificity was also increased by 6% for Homo sapiens and for Mus musculus by 5% on independent test sets. In this study, we have managed to increase phosphorylation prediction accuracy for Homo sapiens and Mus musculus. When there is enough data, future versions of the software may also be able to predict other organisms.

Improving drug discovery using hybrid softcomputing methods

Virtual screening (VS) methods can considerably aid clinical research, predicting how ligands interact with drug targets. Most VS methods suppose a unique binding site for the target, but it has been demonstrated that diverse ligands interact with unrelated parts of the target and many VS methods do not take into account this relevant fact. This problem is circumvented by a novel VS methodology named BINDSURF that scans the whole protein surface in order to find new hotspots, where ligands might potentially interact with, and which is implemented in last generation massively parallel GPU hardware, allowing fast processing of large ligand databases. BINDSURF can thus be used in drug discovery, drug design, drug repurposing and therefore helps considerably in clinical research. However, the accuracy of most VS methods and concretely BINDSURF is constrained by limitations in the scoring function that describes biomolecular interactions, and even nowadays these uncertainties are not completely understood. In order to improve accuracy of the scoring functions used in BINDSURF we propose a hybrid novel approach where neural networks (NNET) and support vector machines (SVM) methods are trained with databases of known active (drugs) and inactive compounds, being this information exploited afterwards to improve BINDSURF VS predictions.

Improvement of Virtual Screening Predictions using Computational Intelligence Methods

Virtual Screening (VS) methods can considerably aid clinical research, predicting how ligands interact with drug targets. However, the accuracy of most VS methods is constrained by limitations in the scoring function that describes biomolecular interactions, and even nowadays these uncertainties are not completely understood. In order to improve accuracy of scoring functions used in most VS methods we propose a hybrid novel approach where neural networks (NNET) and support vector machines (SVM) methods are trained with databases of known active (drugs) and inactive compounds, this information being exploited afterwards to improve VS predictions.

Improving drug discovery using a neural networks based parallel scoring function

Virtual Screening (VS) methods can considerably aid clinical research, predicting how ligands interact with drug targets. Most VS methods suppose a unique binding site for the target, but it has been demonstrated that diverse ligands interact with unrelated parts of the target and many VS methods do not take into account this relevant fact. This problem is circumvented by a novel VS methodology named BINDSURF that scans the whole protein surface to find new hotspots, where ligands might potentially interact with, and which is implemented in massively parallel Graphics Processing Units, allowing fast processing of large ligand databases. BINDSURF can thus be used in drug discovery, drug design, drug repurposing and therefore helps considerably in clinical research. However, the accuracy of most VS methods is constrained by limitations in the scoring function that describes biomolecular interactions, and even nowadays these uncertainties are not completely understood. In order to solve this problem, we propose a novel approach where neural networks are trained with databases of known active (drugs) and inactive compounds, and later used to improve VS predictions.

SVR-GARCH com misturas de kernels gaussianos

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Administração, Programa de Pós-graduação em Administração, 2016.

Cálculo de constantes ópticas de películas delgadas de Cu3BiS3 a través del método de Wolfe

Se calculó la obtención de las constantes ópticas usando el método de Wolfe. Dichas contantes: coeficiente de absorción (α), índice de refracción (n) y espesor de una película delgada (d ), son de importancia en el proceso de caracterización óptica del material. Se realizó una comparación del método del Wolfe con el método empleado por R. Swanepoel. Se desarrolló un modelo de programación no lineal con restricciones, de manera que fue posible estimar las constantes ópticas de películas delgadas semiconductoras, a partir únicamente, de datos de transmisión conocidos. Se presentó una solución al modelo de programación no lineal para programación cuadrática. Se demostró la confiabilidad del método propuesto, obteniendo valores de α = 10378.34 cm−1, n = 2.4595, d =989.71 nm y Eg = 1.39 Ev, a través de experimentos numéricos con datos de medidas de transmitancia espectral en películas delgadas de Cu3BiS3.

Vector control of a high power induction machine

The design and implementation of a high-power (2 MW peak) vector control drive is described. The inverter switching frequency is low, resulting in high-harmonic-content current waveforms. A block diagram of the physical system is given, and each component is described in some detail. The problem of commanded slip noise sensitivity, inherent in high-power vector control drives, is discussed, and a solution is proposed. Results are given which demonstrate the successful functioning of the system

Derivation of a vector model for a Brushless Doubly-Fed Machine with multiple loops per nest

The paper presents a vector model for a Brushless Doubly-Fed Machine (BDFM). The BDFM has 4 and 8 pole stator windings and a nested-loop rotor cage. The rotor cage has six nests equally spaced around the circumference and each nest comprises three loops. All the rotor loops are short circuited via a common end-ring at one end. The vector model is derived based on the electrical equations of the machine and appropriate vector transformations. In contrast to the stator, there is no three phase circuit in the rotor. Therefore, the vector transformations suitable for three phase circuits can not be utilised for the rotor circuit. A new vector transformation is employed for the rotor circuit quantities. The approach presented in this paper can be extended for a BDFM with any stator poles combination and any number of loops per nest. Simulation results from the model implemented in Simulink are presented. © 2008 IEEE.

The Brushless Doubly-Fed Machine vector model in the rotor flux oriented reference frame

The paper presents the vector model of the Brushless Doubly-Fed Machine (BDFM) in the rotor flux oriented reference frame. The rotor flux oriented reference frame is well known in the standard AC machines analysis and control. Similar benefits can be sought by employing this method for the BDFM The vector model is implemented in MATLAB/SIVIULINK to simulate the BDFM dynamic performance under different operating conditions. The predictions from the vector model are compared to those from the coupled circuit model in simulation. The results are shown for the cascade mode of operation. © 2008 IEEE.