Neurofuzzy design and model construction of nonlinear dynamical processes from data

A common problem in many data based modelling algorithms such as associative memory networks is the problem of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, a new two-stage neurofuzzy system design and construction algorithm (NeuDeC) for nonlinear dynamical processes is introduced to effectively tackle this problem. A new simple preprocessing method is initially derived and applied to reduce the rule base, followed by a fine model detection process based on the reduced rule set by using forward orthogonal least squares model structure detection. In both stages, new A-optimality experimental design-based criteria we used. In the preprocessing stage, a lower bound of the A-optimality design criterion is derived and applied as a subset selection metric, but in the later stage, the A-optimality design criterion is incorporated into a new composite cost function that minimises model prediction error as well as penalises the model parameter variance. The utilisation of NeuDeC leads to unbiased model parameters with low parameter variance and the additional benefit of a parsimonious model structure. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new modelling approach for high dimensional inputs.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Implementation of VR systems: a comparison between the early adoption of CAD and current uptake of VR

Use of new technologies, such as virtual reality (VR), is important to corporations, yet understanding of their successful implementation is insuf. ciently developed. In this paper a case study is used to analyse the introduction of VR use in a British housebuilding company. Although the implementation was not successful in the manner initially anticipated, the study provides insight into the process of change, the constraints that inhibit implementation and the relationship between new technology and work organization. Comparison is made with the early use of CAD and similarities and differences between empirical . ndings of the case study and the previous literature are discussed.

The control of dynamical systems by neural networks

In this paper the use of neural networks for the control of dynamical systems is considered. Both identification and feedback control aspects are discussed as well as the types of system for which neural networks can provide a useful technique. Multi-layer Perceptron and Radial Basis function neural network types are looked at, with an emphasis on the latter. It is shown how basis function centre selection is a critical part of the implementation process and that multivariate clustering algorithms can be an extremely useful tool for finding centres.

Connectivity measures for internet topologies on the level of autonomous systems

Classical measures of network connectivity are the number of disjoint paths between a pair of nodes and the size of a minimum cut. For standard graphs, these measures can be computed efficiently using network flow techniques. However, in the Internet on the level of autonomous systems (ASs), referred to as AS-level Internet, routing policies impose restrictions on the paths that traffic can take in the network. These restrictions can be captured by the valley-free path model, which assumes a special directed graph model in which edge types represent relationships between ASs. We consider the adaptation of the classical connectivity measures to the valley-free path model, where it is -hard to compute them. Our first main contribution consists of presenting algorithms for the computation of disjoint paths, and minimum cuts, in the valley-free path model. These algorithms are useful for ASs that want to evaluate different options for selecting upstream providers to improve the robustness of their connection to the Internet. Our second main contribution is an experimental evaluation of our algorithms on four types of directed graph models of the AS-level Internet produced by different inference algorithms. Most importantly, the evaluation shows that our algorithms are able to compute optimal solutions to instances of realistic size of the connectivity problems in the valley-free path model in reasonable time. Furthermore, our experimental results provide information about the characteristics of the directed graph models of the AS-level Internet produced by different inference algorithms. It turns out that (i) we can quantify the difference between the undirected AS-level topology and the directed graph models with respect to fundamental connectivity measures, and (ii) the different inference algorithms yield topologies that are similar with respect to connectivity and are different with respect to the types of paths that exist between pairs of ASs.

Stability of pollination services decreases with isolation from natural areas despite honey bee visits

Sustainable agricultural landscapes by definition provide high magnitude and stability of ecosystem services, biodiversity and crop productivity. However, few studies have considered landscape effects on the stability of ecosystem services. We tested whether isolation from florally diverse natural and semi-natural areas reduces the spatial and temporal stability of flower-visitor richness and pollination services in crop fields. We synthesised data from 29 studies with contrasting biomes, crop species and pollinator communities. Stability of flower-visitor richness, visitation rate (all insects except honey bees) and fruit set all decreased with distance from natural areas. At 1 km from adjacent natural areas, spatial stability decreased by 25, 16 and 9% for richness, visitation and fruit set, respectively, while temporal stability decreased by 39% for richness and 13% for visitation. Mean richness, visitation and fruit set also decreased with isolation, by 34, 27 and 16% at 1 km respectively. In contrast, honey bee visitation did not change with isolation and represented > 25% of crop visits in 21 studies. Therefore, wild pollinators are relevant for crop productivity and stability even when honey bees are abundant. Policies to preserve and restore natural areas in agricultural landscapes should enhance levels and reliability of pollination services.

Comparison of heat stability of goat milk subjected to ultra-high temperature and in-container sterilisation

Goatmilk with and without stabilizing salt was subjected to in-container and UHTsterilization. Heatstability was assessed by measuring the amount of sediment in the milk. Without stabilizing salts, goatmilk usually produced less sediment when subjected to in-containersterilization compared with UHT processing. Addition of stabilizing salts up to 12.8 mM resulted in a progressive increase in sediment for in-containersterilization. In contrast, adding stabilizing salts at 6.4 mM initially reduced sediment formation in UHT-treated milk but addition of stabilizing salts at 12.8 mM increased sediment formation. Adding stabilizing salts to goatmilk increased pH, decreased ionic calcium, and increased ethanol stability. Adding up to 2 mM calcium chloride increased sediment formation more after UHT treatment than after in-containersterilization. These results suggest that no single mechanism or set of reactions causes milk to produce sediment during heating and that the favored pathway is different for UHT and in-containersterilization processes. Poor heatstability could be induced both by increasing ionic calcium and by decreasing it. Ethanol stability is not a good indicator of heatstability for in-containersterilization, but it may be for UHTsterilization, if milk does not enter the region of poor heatstability found at low concentrations of ionic calcium.

The inter-temporal stability of real estate returns: an empirical investigation

This paper examines one of the central issues in the formulation of a sector/regional real estate portfolio strategy, i.e. whether the means, standard deviations and correlations between the returns are sufficiently stable over time to justify using ex-post measures as proxies of the ex-ante portfolio inputs required for MPT. To investigate these issues this study conducts a number of tests of the inter-temporal stability of the total returns of the 19 sector/regions in the UK of the IPDMI. The results of the analysis reveal that the theoretical gains in sector and or regional diversification, found in previous work, could not have been readily achieved in practice without almost perfect foresight on the part of an investor as means, standard deviations and correlations, varied markedly from period to period.

Duplex stability of DNA.DNA and DNA.RNA duplexes containing 3 '-S-phosphorothiolate linkages

3′-S-Phosphorothiolate (3′-SP) linkages have been incorporated into the DNA strand of both a DNA·RNA duplex and a DNA·DNA duplex. Thermal melting (Tm) studies established that this modification significantly stabilises the DNA·RNA duplex with an average increase in Tm of about 1.4 °C per modification. For two or three modifications, the increase in Tm was larger for an alternating, as compared to the contiguous, arrangement. For more than three modifications their arrangement had no effect on Tm. In contrast to the DNA·RNA duplex, the 3′-S-phosphorothiolate linkage destabilised the DNA·DNA duplex, irrespective of the arrangement of the 3′-SP linkages. The effect of ionic strength on duplex stability was similar for both the phosphorothiolate-substituted and the unmodified RNA·DNA duplexes. The results are discussed in terms of the influence that the sulfur atom has on the conformation of the furanose ring and comparisons are also drawn between the current study and those previously conducted with other modifications that have a similar conformational effect.

Regularization of descriptor systems by output feedback

Conditions are given under which a descriptor, or generalized state-space system can be regularized by output feedback. It is shown that under these conditions, proportional and derivative output feedback controls can be constructed such that the closed-loop system is regular and has index at most one. This property ensures the solvability of the resulting system of dynamic-algebraic equations. A reduced form is given that allows the system properties as well as the feedback to be determined. The construction procedures used to establish the theory are based only on orthogonal matrix decompositions and can therefore be implemented in a numerically stable way.

Regularization of Descriptor Systems by Derivative and Proportional State Feedback

For linear multivariable time-invariant continuous or discrete-time singular systems it is customary to use a proportional feedback control in order to achieve a desired closed loop behaviour. Derivative feedback is rarely considered. This paper examines how derivative feedback in descriptor systems can be used to alter the structure of the system pencil under various controllability conditions. It is shown that derivative and proportional feedback controls can be constructed such that the closed loop system has a given form and is also regular and has index at most 1. This property ensures the solvability of the resulting system of dynamic-algebraic equations. The construction procedures used to establish the theory are based only on orthogonal matrix decompositions and can therefore be implemented in a numerically stable way. The problem of pole placement with derivative feedback alone and in combination with proportional state feedback is also investigated. A computational algorithm for improving the “conditioning” of the regularized closed loop system is derived.

Minimum norm regularization of descriptor systems by mixed output feedback

We study the regularization problem for linear, constant coefficient descriptor systems Ex' = Ax+Bu, y1 = Cx, y2 = Γx' by proportional and derivative mixed output feedback. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given, which guarantee that there exist output feedbacks such that the closed-loop system is regular, has index at most one and E+BGΓ has a desired rank, i.e., there is a desired number of differential and algebraic equations. To resolve the freedom in the choice of the feedback matrices we then discuss how to obtain the desired regularizing feedback of minimum norm and show that this approach leads to useful results in the sense of robustness only if the rank of E is decreased. Numerical procedures are derived to construct the desired feedback gains. These numerical procedures are based on orthogonal matrix transformations which can be implemented in a numerically stable way.