Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

A multispectral view of the periodic events in eta Carinae

A full description of the 5.5-yr low excitation events in. Carinae is presented. We show that they are not as simple and brief as previously thought, but a combination of two components. The first, the slow variation component, is revealed by slow changes in the ionization level of circumstellar matter across the whole cycle and is caused by gradual changes in the wind wind collision shock-cone orientation, angular opening and gaseous content. The second, the collapse component, is restricted to around the minimum, and is due to a temporary global collapse of the wind-wind collision shock. High-energy photons (E > 16 eV) from the companion star are strongly shielded, leaving the Weigelt objects at low-ionization state for more than six months. High-energy phenomena are sensitive only to the collapse, low energy only to the slow variation and intermediate energies to both components. Simple eclipses and mechanisms effective only near periastron (e. g. shell ejection or accretion on to the secondary star) cannot account for the whole 5.5-yr cycle. We find anti-correlated changes in the intensity and the radial velocity of P Cygni absorption profiles in Fe II lambda 6455 and He I lambda 7065 lines, indicating that the former is associated to the primary and the latter to the secondary star. We present a set of light curves representative of the whole spectrum, useful for monitoring the next event (2009 January 11).

The periodicity of the eta Carinae events

Extensive spectral observations of eta Carinae over the last cycle, and particularly around the 2003.5 low-excitation event, have been obtained. The variability of both narrow and broad lines, when combined with data taken from two earlier cycles, reveal a common and well-defined period. We have combined the cycle lengths derived from the many lines in the optical spectrum with those from broad-band X-rays, optical and near-infrared observations, and obtained a period length of P(pres) = 2022.7 +/- 1.3 d. Spectroscopic data collected during the last 60 yr yield an average period of P(avg) = 2020 +/- 4 d, consistent with the present-day period. The period cannot have changed by more than Delta P/P = 0.0007 since 1948. This confirms the previous claims of a true, stable periodicity, and gives strong support to the binary scenario. We have used the disappearance of the narrow component of He I 6678 to define the epoch of the Cycle 11 minimum, T(0) = JD 245 2819.8. The next event is predicted to occur on 2009 January 11 (+/- 2 d). The dates for the start of the minimum in other spectral features and broad-bands are very close to this date, and have well-determined time-delays from the He I epoch.

Frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil modulated by interannual and interdecadal variability

The frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil is impacted by Ell Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, especially in austral spring. There are two areas in which this impact is more significant: one is on the coast, where extreme events are more frequent during El Nino (EN) and the other one extends inland, where extreme events increase during EN and decrease during La Nina (LN). Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with severe rainfall in those areas are similar (opposite) to anomalous patterns characteristic of EN (LN) episodes, indicating why increase (decrease) of extreme events in EN (LN) episodes is favoured. The most recurrent precipitation patterns during extreme rainfall events in each of these areas are disclosed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evidence the separation between extreme events in these areas: a severe precipitation event generally does not occur simultaneously in the coast and inland, although they may Occur inland and in the coastal region in sequence. Although EN predominantly enhances extreme rainfall, there are EN years in which fewer severe events occur than the average of neutral years, and also the enhancement of extreme rainfall is not uniform for different EN episodes, because the interdecadal non-ENSO variability also modulates significantly the frequency of extreme events in Southern Brazil. The inland region, which is more affected, shows increase (decrease) of extreme rainfall in association with the negative (positive) phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, with the negative (positive) phase of the Pacific Multidecadal Variability and with the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Variability. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Chromosomal Evolution in the Brazilian Geckos of the Genus Gymnodactylus (Squamata, Phyllodactylidae) from the Biomes of Cerrado, Caatinga and Atlantic Rain Forest: Evidence of Robertsonian Fusion Events and Supernumerary Chromosomes

Chromosomes of the South American geckos Gymnodactylus amarali and G. geckoides from open and dry areas of the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes in Brazil, respectively, were studied for the first time, after conventional and AgNOR staining, CBG- and RBG-banding, and FISH with telomeric sequences. Comparative analyses between the karyotypes of open areas and the previously studied Atlantic forest species G. darwinii were also performed. The chromosomal polymorphisms detected in populations of G. amarali from the states of Goias and Tocantins is the result of centric fusions (2n = 38, 39 and 40), suggesting a differentiation from a 2n = 40 ancestral karyotype and the presence of supernumerary chromosomes. The CBG- and RBG-banding patterns of the Bs are described. G. geckoides has 40 chromosomes with gradually decreasing sizes, but it is distinct from the 2n = 40 karyotypes of G. amarali and G. darwinii due to occurrence of pericentric inversions or centromere repositioning. NOR location seems to be a marker for Gymnodactylus, as G. amarali and G. geckoides share a medium-sized subtelocentric NOR-bearing pair, while G. darwinii has NORs at the secondary constriction of the long arm of pair 1. The comparative analyses indicate a non-random nature of the Robertsonian rearrangements in the genus Gymnodactylus. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

A novel approach for distributed application scheduling based on prediction of communication events

The evolution of commodity computing lead to the possibility of efficient usage of interconnected machines to solve computationally-intensive tasks, which were previously solvable only by using expensive supercomputers. This, however, required new methods for process scheduling and distribution, considering the network latency, communication cost, heterogeneous environments and distributed computing constraints. An efficient distribution of processes over such environments requires an adequate scheduling strategy, as the cost of inefficient process allocation is unacceptably high. Therefore, a knowledge and prediction of application behavior is essential to perform effective scheduling. In this paper, we overview the evolution of scheduling approaches, focusing on distributed environments. We also evaluate the current approaches for process behavior extraction and prediction, aiming at selecting an adequate technique for online prediction of application execution. Based on this evaluation, we propose a novel model for application behavior prediction, considering chaotic properties of such behavior and the automatic detection of critical execution points. The proposed model is applied and evaluated for process scheduling in cluster and grid computing environments. The obtained results demonstrate that prediction of the process behavior is essential for efficient scheduling in large-scale and heterogeneous distributed environments, outperforming conventional scheduling policies by a factor of 10, and even more in some cases. Furthermore, the proposed approach proves to be efficient for online predictions due to its low computational cost and good precision. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microgranitic Enclaves as Products of Self-mixing Events: a Study of Open-system Processes in the Maua Granite, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Based on in situ Isotopic and Trace Elements in Plagioclase

Felsic microgranular enclaves with structures indicating that they interacted in a plastic state with their chemically similar host granite are abundant in the Maua Pluton, SE Brazil. Larger plagioclase xenocrysts are in textural disequilibrium with the enclave groundmass and show complex zoning patterns with partially resorbed An-rich cores (locally with patchy textures) surrounded by more sodic rims. In situ laser ablation-(multi-collector) inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry trace element and Sr isotopic analyses performed on the plagioclase xenocrysts indicate open-system crystallization; however, no evidence of derivation from more primitive basic melts is observed. The An-rich cores have more radiogenic initial Sr isotopic ratios that decrease towards the outermost part of the rims, which are in isotopic equilibrium with the matrix plagioclase. These profiles may have been produced by either (1) diffusional re-equilibration after rim crystallization from the enclave-forming magma, as indicated by relatively short calculated residence times, or (2) episodic contamination with a decrease of the contaminant ratio proportional to the extent to which the country rocks were isolated by the crystallization front. Profiles of trace elements with high diffusion coefficients would require unrealistically long residence times, and can be modeled in terms of fractional crystallization. A combination of trace element and Sr isotope data suggests that the felsic microgranular enclaves from the Maua Pluton are the products of interaction between end-member magmas that had similar compositions, thus recording `self-mixing` events.

Geology and geochronology of the Betara region in south-southeastern Brazil: Evidence for possible Statherian (1.80-1.75 Ga) and Calymmian (1.50-1.45 Ga) extension events

The results of geological mapping, chemical analysis and radiometric dating of metabasic rocks of Betara Formation, and mapping and dating of those present in the Betara basement nucleus together with mylonitic granodiorite and syenogranite are reported here. U-Pb analysis of bulk zircon fractions from the metabasic rocks of the basement nucleus yielded a Statherian age of 1790 +/- 22 Ma, while the metabasic rocks from the upper part of the Betara Formation yielded a Calymmian age between 1500 and 1450 Ma. This age is a minimum for the deposition of the Betara Formation. The older metabasic rocks are associated with post-tectonic, possibly anorogenic syenogranite, while the younger ones are gabbro or very porphyritic ankaramite whose REE patterns are consistent with crystallization from an N-MORB parent magma. The observations and data point to the probable events associated with extensional processes of the end of Paleoproterozoic and early Mesoproterozoic. Similar registers of Statherian (1.80-1.75 Ga) and Calymmian (1.50-1.45 Ga) extensional events are recorded in other parts of the South American and African continents. The Neoproterozoic witnessed the formation and junction of the tectonic slices which formed the Apiai domain during the assemblage of western Gondwana. (C) 2010 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sponsring av Skid-VM i Falun : En studie av regionala sponsorers vilja att delta isponsornätverket Beyond Skiing

Stora idrottsevenemang är till stor del beroende av de intäkter som kommer från sponsrandeföretag. Inför skid-VM i Falun 2015 startade organisationen Beyond Skiing Foundation ABett projekt i form av ett sponsornätverk. Projektet kom att kallas Beyond Skiing och syftet varatt försöka locka regionala- företag, kommuner och organisationer att sponsra skid-VM.Tanken med sponsornätverket var att ge ett värde till projektets medlemmar som ville varamed och sponsra skid-VM, men som inte ville betala den summa pengar som krävdes för attbli huvudsponsorer till evenemanget.Syftet med denna undersökning är att förklara varför en heterogen grupp sponsorer utspriddaöver en stor region ingick i ett regionalt sponsornätverk. Urvalet bestod av medlemmarna iBeyond Skiing. Vidare gjordes ett urval att medlemmarna skulle vara lokaliserade i Dalarna,men utanför Falun. Anledningen till varför regionala sponsorer utan direkt geografiskkoppling till Falun valdes, var att kopplingen mellan deras sponsring av skid-VM kan påförhand ses som mer komplex och onaturlig jämfört med sponsorer från Falun, eftersomsponsring i mindre skala tenderar att röra samarbeten med sponsrade enheter inom samma ort.Data till studien samlades in genom fem kvalitativa telefonintervjuer. Resultatet indikerar påatt medlemmarna i Beyond Skiing hade tydliga kommersiella mål med sin sponsring av skid-VM och att sponsra endast genom goodwill var i detta fall mindre förekommande. Studien harvisat att sponsringssamarbetes specifika erbjudanden och regionala motiv har varit tvåbidragande orsaker till varför sponsorerna ville sponsra skid-VM. Särskilt nöjda varsponsorerna med nätverksträffarna som Beyond Skiing Foundation anordnade förmedlemmarna inom Beyond Skiing.

Association of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 with nephropathy, cardiovascular events, and total mortality in type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) contribute to experimental diabetic kidney disease, a condition with substantially increased cardiovascular risk when present in patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the levels of sTNFRs, and their association with prevalent kidney disease, incident cardiovascular disease, and risk of mortality independently of baseline kidney function and microalbuminuria in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. In pre-defined secondary analyses we also investigated whether the sTNFRs predict adverse outcome in the absence of diabetic kidney disease. METHODS: The CARDIPP study, a cohort study of 607 diabetes patients [mean age 61 years, 44 % women, 45 cardiovascular events (fatal/non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) and 44 deaths during follow-up (mean 7.6 years)] was used. RESULTS: Higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 were associated with higher odds of prevalent kidney disease [odd ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.60, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.32-1.93, p < 0.001 and OR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.21-1.97, p = 0.001, respectively]. In Cox regression models adjusting for age, sex, glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 predicted incident cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.66, 95 % CI 1.29-2.174, p < 0.001 and HR 1.47, 95 % CI 1.13-1.91, p = 0.004, respectively]. Results were similar in separate models with adjustments for inflammatory markers, HbA1c, or established cardiovascular risk factors, or when participants with diabetic kidney disease at baseline were excluded (p < 0.01 for all). Both sTNFRs were associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Higher circulating sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are associated with diabetic kidney disease, and predicts incident cardiovascular disease and mortality independently of microalbuminuria and kidney function, even in those without kidney disease. Our findings support the clinical utility of sTNFRs as prognostic markers in type 2 diabetes.

The Cultural Construction of the Maine Sporting Camps

Maine sporting camps were a cultural and social phenomenon of the urban upper and middle class. They originated in Maine in the late 1870s and early 1880s and reached their zenith around the turn of the century with over 160 in operation in eight of the sixteen counties in Maine in 1906. The period from 1880 until World War I can be considered the 'golden era' of the Maine sporting camps. After the war, with technological advancements such as the outboard motor, the proliferation of the automobile, and the introduction of a road system into rural Maine, the camps underwent significant change that warrants an entirely different cultural analysis. A number of elements came together to produce a cultural atmosphere permissive of sporting camp creation in Maine. These include changing national views upon nature, health, sport and the leisure time in which to pursue them. In the late nineteenth century, with the rise of large industrially based cities, overcrowding fostered crime and disease. An upper and middle class emerged that desired escape and separation from the lower classes. Maine was chosen for such an escape because it offered, through sporting camps, a chance to "get back to nature," by pursuing the healthful activities of hunting and fishing. At the same time these urban sportsmen and sportswomen distinguished themselves on the social Hierarchical scale from the rural inhabitants. What happened in rural Maine during the period between 1880 and World War I was the introduction of a new cultural order on the landscape. Coming primarily from urban centers on the East Coast of the United States were men, women and children who looked to Maine for vacations. These vacations were designed to put them in touch with nature by pursuing healthful activities, especially those of fishing and hunting. Coming from an environment that emphasized social standing, they ensured that these trips would perpetuate this hierarchy. They experienced nature through the Maine sporting camps, which provided them with the services and skills necessary to experience it while enjoying a degree of luxury that they were accustomed to in the urban world. The Maine sporting camps were a cultural manifestation of the urban upper and middle class, the groups that the camps were established to serve. Despite this the camps did not represent a structural duplication of urban society. Instead, the camps represented a cultural construction that was produced by interaction between members of two different conceptual and physical worlds, the blending of which, on a social level, was determined by urban mentality and rural knowledge. In the production of a cultural world meaningful to the clients, the rural world of the Maine woods was altered to meet their needs. It was not a one-sided process, however, as the clients were forced to acknowledge the importance of the rural inhabitants on the basis of their value to the clients.

Medidas de desempenho para hedge funds no Brasil com destaque para a medida Ômega

A avaliação de desempenho de fundos de investimentos é, tradicionalmente, realizada utilizando-se o Índice de Sharpe, que leva em consideração apenas os dois primeiros momentos da distribuição de retornos (média e variância), assumindo as premissas de normalidade da distribuição de retornos e função quadrática de utilidade do investidor. Entretanto, é sabido que uma função de utilidade quadrática é inconsistente com o comportamento do investidor e que as distribuições de retornos de determinados fundos, como os hedge funds, estão longe de serem uma distribuição normal. Keating e Shadwick (2002a, 2002b) introduziram uma nova medida denominada Ômega que incorpora todos os momentos da distribuição, e tem a vantagem de não ser necessário fazer premissas sobre a distribuição dos retornos nem da função de utilidade de um investidor avesso ao risco. O objetivo deste trabalho é verificar se esta medida Ômega tem um poder de previsibilidade maior que outras medidas de avaliação de desempenho, como o Índice de Sharpe e o Índice de Sortino. O estudo empírico indicou que a medida Ômega gera um ranqueamento, na maioria das vezes, relativamente diferente das outras medidas testadas. Apesar das carteiras formadas com base na medida Ômega terem gerado um retorno médio maior que o retorno médio das carteiras formadas pelas outras medidas em praticamente todos os testes, esta diferença entre as médias dos retornos só foi significativa em alguns casos. Mesmo assim, há uma leve indicação de que a medida Ômega é a mais apropriada para utilização do investidor ao fazer a avaliação de desempenho dos fundos de investimentos.

Crisis communication: organization's reactions to unexpected events

A reputação é considerada o ativo mais importante das empresas. Ela permite o estabelecimento de relações comerciais e garante um bom funcionamento da organização. Quando um evento inesperado surge, a reputação pode ser ameaçada. Os gerentes, líderes da organização, têm então que demonstrar reatividade e capacidade em responder as necessidades dos stakeholders, e capacidade de detectar e consertar as falhas dentro da organização através de um processo de aprendizagem, para evitar conseqüências negativas que poderiam danificar a reputação e impactar o desenvolvimento operacional da empresa. Através da comunicação de crise, observamos que depois da queda do avião AF 447, a companhia Air France adotou diferentes posturas adaptadas ao pedido dos stakeholders e ao grau de ameaça sofrido. Logo depois do acidente, a empresa decidiu adotar a estratégia do reconhecimento, assumindo uma responsabilidade simbólica e comunicando prioritariamente para as famílias das vitimas e para a mídia. Nas seguintes semanas ela utilizou a estratégia do silêncio que consiste em não comunicar diretamente a mídia. Finalmente, ela usou a estratégia do “bode expiatório” quando ela foi sujeita a ataques diretos. As reações da empresa somadas ao avanço das investigações judiciais revelaram falhas organizacionais “históricas” dentro da própria empresa, como por exemplo, a falta de comunicação entre pilotos e gerentes ou uma falha de sensibilidade técnica e operacional da parte dos gerentes. Apesar de problemas interno e externo, a Air France demonstrou que uma comunicação de crise bem gerenciada limita os impactos financeiros e de reputação. As conseqüências negativas sofridas pela companhia Air France foram limitadas.