Umbrella pine above ground biomass estimation with very high spatial resolution satellite images

Above ground biomass is frequently estimated with forest inventory data and an extrapolation method for the per unit area evaluations. This procedure is labour demanding and costly. In this study above ground biomass functions, whose independent variable is crown horizontal projection, were developed. Multi-resolution segmentation method and object-oriented classification, based on very high spatial resolution satellite images, were used to obtain the area of tree crown horizontal projection for umbrella pine (Pinus pinea L.). A set of inventory plots were measured and with existing allometric functions for this species above ground biomass per tree and per plot were calculated. The two data sets were used to fit linear functions both for individual plot and their cumulative values. The results show a good performance of the models. Errors smaller than 10% are obtained for stand areas greater than 1.4 ha. These functions have the advantages of estimating above ground biomass for all the area under study or surveillance, not requiring forest inventory; allow monitoring in short time periods; and are easily implemented in a geographical information system environment.

Above ground biomass estimation in Mediterranean multiple use systems with high spatial resolution satellite images

Forest biomass has been having an increasing importance in the world economy and in the evaluation of the forests development and monitoring. It was identified as a global strategic reserve, due to its applications in bioenergy, bioproduct development and issues related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The estimation of above ground biomass is frequently done with allometric functions per species with plot inventory data. An adequate sampling design and intensity for an error threshold is required. The estimation per unit area is done using an extrapolation method. This procedure is labour demanding and costly. The mail goal of this study is the development of allometric functions for the estimation of above ground biomass with ground cover as independent variable, for forest areas of holm aok (Quercus rotundifolia), cork oak (Quercus suber) and umbrella pine (Pinus pinea) in multiple use systems. Ground cover per species was derived from crown horizontal projection obtained by processing high resolution satellite images, orthorectified, geometrically and atmospheric corrected, with multi-resolution segmentation method and object oriented classification. Forest inventory data were used to estimate plot above ground biomass with published allometric functions at tree level. The developed functions were fitted for monospecies stands and for multispecies stands of Quercus rotundifolia and Quercus suber, and Quercus suber and Pinus pinea. The stand composition was considered adding dummy variables to distinguish monospecies from multispecies stands. The models showed a good performance. Noteworthy is that the dummy variables, reflecting the differences between species, originated improvements in the models. Significant differences were found for above ground biomass estimation with the functions with and without the dummy variables. An error threshold of 10% corresponds to stand areas of about 40 ha. This method enables the overall area evaluation, not requiring extrapolation procedures, for the three species, which occur frequently in multispecies stands.

Spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature from weather forecast data - an introductory numerical study and validation

This short paper presents a numerical method for spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature data from global weather forecast models and its validation. The final objective is to develop a prediction algorithm to be integrated in energy management models and forecast of energy harvesting in solar thermal systems of medium/low temperature. Initially, hourly prediction and measurement data of solar global radiation and mean air temperature were obtained, being then numerically downscaled to half-hourly prediction values for the location where measurements were taken. The differences between predictions and measurements were analyzed for more than one year of data of mean air temperature and solar global radiation on clear sky days, resulting in relative daily deviations of around -0.9±3.8% and 0.02±3.92%, respectively.

How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Spatial variability of satured soil hydraulic conductivity in the region of Araguaia River - Brazil.

This study evaluates the spatial variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity in the soil in an area of 51,850 ha at the headwaters of the Araguaia River MT/GO. This area is highly vulnerable because it is a location of recharging through natural water infiltration of the Guarani Aquifer System and an area of intense increases in agriculture since its adoption by growers in the last 30 years. Soil samples were collected at 383 points, geographically located by GPS. The samples were collected from depths of 0 - 20 cm and 60 - 80 cm. Exploratory statistics and box-plot were used in the descriptive analysis and semivariogram were constructed to determine the spatial model. The exploratory analysis showed that the mean hydraulic conductivity in the superficial layer was less than at the level of 60-80 cm; however, the greatest variability evaluated with a coefficient of variation also was from this layer. Data tended towards a normal distribution. These results can be explained by the greater soil compaction in the superficial layer. The semivariogram models, adjusted for the two layers, were exponential and demonstrated moderate and strong dependence, with ranges of 5000 and 3000 utm respectively. It was concluded that soil use is influencing the spatial distribution model of the hydraulic conductivity in the region.

A methodological approach for the performance optimization of transient seepage models through inverse analysis

The topic of the Ph.D project focuses on the modelling of the soil-water dynamics inside an instrumented embankment section along Secchia River (Cavezzo (MO)) in the period from 2017 to 2018 and the quantification of the performance of the direct and indirect simulations . The commercial code Hydrus2D by Pc-Progress has been chosen to run the direct simulations. Different soil-hydraulic models have been adopted and compared. The parameters of the different hydraulic models are calibrated using a local optimization method based on the Levenberg - Marquardt algorithm implemented in the Hydrus package. The calibration program is carried out using different types of dataset of observation points, different weighting distributions, different combinations of optimized parameters and different initial sets of parameters. The final goal is an in-depth study of the potentialities and limits of the inverse analysis when applied to a complex geotechnical problem as the case study. The second part of the research focuses on the effects of plant roots and soil-vegetation-atmosphere interaction on the spatial and temporal distribution of pore water pressure in soil. The investigated soil belongs to the West Charlestown Bypass embankment, Newcastle, Australia, that showed in the past years shallow instabilities and the use of long stem planting is intended to stabilize the slope. The chosen plant species is the Malaleuca Styphelioides, native of eastern Australia. The research activity included the design and realization of a specific large scale apparatus for laboratory experiments. Local suction measurements at certain intervals of depth and radial distances from the root bulb are recorded within the vegetated soil mass under controlled boundary conditions. The experiments are then reproduced numerically using the commercial code Hydrus 2D. Laboratory data are used to calibrate the RWU parameters and the parameters of the hydraulic model.

Development of advanced methods for the simulation of the reacting mixture formation in internal combustion engines with the use of machine learning algorithms

Besides increasing the share of electric and hybrid vehicles, in order to comply with more stringent environmental protection limitations, in the mid-term the auto industry must improve the efficiency of the internal combustion engine and the well to wheel efficiency of the employed fuel. To achieve this target, a deeper knowledge of the phenomena that influence the mixture formation and the chemical reactions involving new synthetic fuel components is mandatory, but complex and time intensive to perform purely by experimentation. Therefore, numerical simulations play an important role in this development process, but their use can be effective only if they can be considered accurate enough to capture these variations. The most relevant models necessary for the simulation of the reacting mixture formation and successive chemical reactions have been investigated in the present work, with a critical approach, in order to provide instruments to define the most suitable approaches also in the industrial context, which is limited by time constraints and budget evaluations. To overcome these limitations, new methodologies have been developed to conjugate detailed and simplified modelling techniques for the phenomena involving chemical reactions and mixture formation in non-traditional conditions (e.g. water injection, biofuels etc.). Thanks to the large use of machine learning and deep learning algorithms, several applications have been revised or implemented, with the target of reducing the computing time of some traditional tasks by orders of magnitude. Finally, a complete workflow leveraging these new models has been defined and used for evaluating the effects of different surrogate formulations of the same experimental fuel on a proof-of-concept GDI engine model.

3D bioprinted organ models for drug screening

In recent years, 3D bioprinting has emerged as an innovative and versatile technology able to produce in vitro models that resemble the native spatial organization of organ tissues, by employing or more bioinks composed of various types of cells suspended in hydrogels. Natural and semi-synthetic hydrogels are extensively used for 3D bioprinting models since they can mimic the natural composition of the tissues, they are biocompatible and bioactive with customizable mechanical properties, allowing to support cell growth. The possibility to tailor hydrogels mechanical properties by modifying the chemical structures to obtain photo-crosslinkable materials, while maintaining their biocompatibility and biomimicry, make their use versatile and suitable to simulate a broad spectrum of physiological features. In this PhD Thesis, 3D bioprinted in vitro models with tailored mechanical properties and physiologically-like features were fabricated. AlgMa-based bioinks were employed to produce a living platform with gradient stiffness, with the aim to create an easy to handle and accessible biological tool to evaluate mechanobiology. In addition, GelMa, collagen and IPN of GelMa and collagen were used as bioinks to fabricate a proof-of-concept of 3D intestinal barrier, which include multiple cell components and multi-layered structure. A useful rheological guide to drive users to the selection of the suitable bioinks for 3D bioprinting and to correlate the model’s mechanical stability after crosslinking is proposed. In conclusion, a platform capable to reproduce models with physiological gradient stiffness was developed and the fabrication of 3D bioprinted intestinal models displaying a good hierarchical structure and cells composition was fully reported and successfully achieved. The good biological results obtained demonstrated that 3D bioprinting can be used for the fabrications of 3D models and that the mechanical properties of the external environment plays a key role on the cell pathways, viability and morphology.

Moving toward stock units identification based on spatial population structure of marine species in the Mediterranean Sea and adjacent waters through multidisciplinary and holistic approaches for the sustainability of fisheries resources

Investigating stock identity of marine species in a multidisciplinary holistic approach can reveal patterns of complex spatial population structure and signatures of potential local adaptation. The population structure of common sole (Solea solea) in the Mediterranean Sea was delineated using genomic and otolith data, including single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) markers and otolith data. SNPs were correlated with environmental and spatial variables to evaluate the impact of these features on the actual genetic population structure. Integrated holistic approach was applied to combine the tracers with different spatio-temporal scales. SNPs data was also used to illustrate the population structure of European hake (Merluccius merluccius) within the Alboran Sea, extending into the neighboring Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The aim was to identify patterns of neutral and potential adaptive genetic variation by applying seascape genomic framework. Results from both genetic and otolith data suggested significant divergence among putative populations of common sole, confirming a clear separation between Western, Adriatic Sea and Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Evidence of fine-scale population structure in the Western Mediterranean Sea was observed at outlier loci level and in the Adriatic. Our study not only indicates that separation among Mediterranean sole population is led primarily by neutral processes, but it also suggests the presence of local adaptation influenced by environmental and spatial factors. The holistic approach by considering the spatio-temporal scales of variation confirmed that the same pattern of separation between these geographical sites is currently occurring and has occurred for many generations. Results showed the occurrence of population structure in Merluccius merluccius by detecting westward–eastward differentiation among populations and distinct subgroups at a fine geographical scale using outlier SNPs. These results enhance the knowledge of the population structure of commercially relevant species to support the application of spatial stock assessment models, including a redefinition of fishery management units.

On the effect of confounding in linear regression models: an approach based on the theory of quadratic forms

The main topic of this thesis is confounding in linear regression models. It arises when a relationship between an observed process, the covariate, and an outcome process, the response, is influenced by an unmeasured process, the confounder, associated with both. Consequently, the estimators for the regression coefficients of the measured covariates might be severely biased, less efficient and characterized by misleading interpretations. Confounding is an issue when the primary target of the work is the estimation of the regression parameters. The central point of the dissertation is the evaluation of the sampling properties of parameter estimators. This work aims to extend the spatial confounding framework to general structured settings and to understand the behaviour of confounding as a function of the data generating process structure parameters in several scenarios focusing on the joint covariate-confounder structure. In line with the spatial statistics literature, our purpose is to quantify the sampling properties of the regression coefficient estimators and, in turn, to identify the most prominent quantities depending on the generative mechanism impacting confounding. Once the sampling properties of the estimator conditionally on the covariate process are derived as ratios of dependent quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables, we provide an analytic expression of the marginal sampling properties of the estimator using Carlson’s R function. Additionally, we propose a representative quantity for the magnitude of confounding as a proxy of the bias, its first-order Laplace approximation. To conclude, we work under several frameworks considering spatial and temporal data with specific assumptions regarding the covariance and cross-covariance functions used to generate the processes involved. This study allows us to claim that the variability of the confounder-covariate interaction and of the covariate plays the most relevant role in determining the principal marker of the magnitude of confounding.

Advanced statistical models for the segregation, identification and measurement of coexisting sound sources

Long-term monitoring of acoustical environments is gaining popularity thanks to the relevant amount of scientific and engineering insights that it provides. The increasing interest is due to the constant growth of storage capacity and computational power to process large amounts of data. In this perspective, machine learning (ML) provides a broad family of data-driven statistical techniques to deal with large databases. Nowadays, the conventional praxis of sound level meter measurements limits the global description of a sound scene to an energetic point of view. The equivalent continuous level Leq represents the main metric to define an acoustic environment, indeed. Finer analyses involve the use of statistical levels. However, acoustic percentiles are based on temporal assumptions, which are not always reliable. A statistical approach, based on the study of the occurrences of sound pressure levels, would bring a different perspective to the analysis of long-term monitoring. Depicting a sound scene through the most probable sound pressure level, rather than portions of energy, brought more specific information about the activity carried out during the measurements. The statistical mode of the occurrences can capture typical behaviors of specific kinds of sound sources. The present work aims to propose an ML-based method to identify, separate and measure coexisting sound sources in real-world scenarios. It is based on long-term monitoring and is addressed to acousticians focused on the analysis of environmental noise in manifold contexts. The presented method is based on clustering analysis. Two algorithms, Gaussian Mixture Model and K-means clustering, represent the main core of a process to investigate different active spaces monitored through sound level meters. The procedure has been applied in two different contexts: university lecture halls and offices. The proposed method shows robust and reliable results in describing the acoustic scenario and it could represent an important analytical tool for acousticians.

Local and nonlocal integro-differential reaction-diffusion models for protein dynamics in Alzheimer's disease

In this work, integro-differential reaction-diffusion models are presented for the description of the temporal and spatial evolution of the concentrations of Abeta and tau proteins involved in Alzheimer's disease. Initially, a local model is analysed: this is obtained by coupling with an interaction term two heterodimer models, modified by adding diffusion and Holling functional terms of the second type. We then move on to the presentation of three nonlocal models, which differ according to the type of the growth (exponential, logistic or Gompertzian) considered for healthy proteins. In these models integral terms are introduced to consider the interaction between proteins that are located at different spatial points possibly far apart. For each of the models introduced, the determination of equilibrium points with their stability and a study of the clearance inequalities are carried out. In addition, since the integrals introduced imply a spatial nonlocality in the models exhibited, some general features of nonlocal models are presented. Afterwards, with the aim of developing simulations, it is decided to transfer the nonlocal models to a brain graph called connectome. Therefore, after setting out the construction of such a graph, we move on to the description of Laplacian and convolution operations on a graph. Taking advantage of all these elements, we finally move on to the translation of the continuous models described above into discrete models on the connectome. To conclude, the results of some simulations concerning the discrete models just derived are presented.

Characterization Of Microsatellite Markers Developed From Prosopis Rubriflora And Prosopis Ruscifolia (leguminosae - Mimosoideae), Legume Species That Are Used As Models For Genetic Diversity Studies In Chaquenian Areas Under Anthropization In South America.

Prosopis rubriflora and Prosopis ruscifolia are important species in the Chaquenian regions of Brazil. Because of the restriction and frequency of their physiognomy, they are excellent models for conservation genetics studies. The use of microsatellite markers (Simple Sequence Repeats, SSRs) has become increasingly important in recent years and has proven to be a powerful tool for both ecological and molecular studies. In this study, we present the development and characterization of 10 new markers for P. rubriflora and 13 new markers for P. ruscifolia. The genotyping was performed using 40 P. rubriflora samples and 48 P. ruscifolia samples from the Chaquenian remnants in Brazil. The polymorphism information content (PIC) of the P. rubriflora markers ranged from 0.073 to 0.791, and no null alleles or deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HW) were detected. The PIC values for the P. ruscifolia markers ranged from 0.289 to 0.883, but a departure from HW and null alleles were detected for certain loci; however, this departure may have resulted from anthropic activities, such as the presence of livestock, which is very common in the remnant areas. In this study, we describe novel SSR polymorphic markers that may be helpful in future genetic studies of P. rubriflora and P. ruscifolia.

Experiences From The Brazilian Atlantic Forest: Ecological Findings And Conservation Initiatives.

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest hosts one of the world's most diverse and threatened tropical forest biota. In many ways, its history of degradation describes the fate experienced by tropical forests around the world. After five centuries of human expansion, most Atlantic Forest landscapes are archipelagos of small forest fragments surrounded by open-habitat matrices. This 'natural laboratory' has contributed to a better understanding of the evolutionary history and ecology of tropical forests and to determining the extent to which this irreplaceable biota is susceptible to major human disturbances. We share some of the major findings with respect to the responses of tropical forests to human disturbances across multiple biological levels and spatial scales and discuss some of the conservation initiatives adopted in the past decade. First, we provide a short description of the Atlantic Forest biota and its historical degradation. Secondly, we offer conceptual models describing major shifts experienced by tree assemblages at local scales and discuss landscape ecological processes that can help to maintain this biota at larger scales. We also examine potential plant responses to climate change. Finally, we propose a research agenda to improve the conservation value of human-modified landscapes and safeguard the biological heritage of tropical forests.

Evolution Of The Deaths Registry System In Brazil: Associations With Changes In The Mortality Profile, Under-registration Of Death Counts, And Ill-defined Causes Of Death.

This paper examines the spatial pattern of ill-defined causes of death across Brazilian regions, and its relationship with the evolution of completeness of the deaths registry and changes in the mortality age profile. We make use of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department mortality database and population censuses from 1980 to 2010. We applied demographic methods to evaluate the quality of mortality data for 137 small areas and correct for under-registration of death counts when necessary. The second part of the analysis uses linear regression models to investigate the relationship between, on the one hand, changes in death counts coverage and age profile of mortality, and on the other, changes in the reporting of ill-defined causes of death. The completeness of death counts coverage increases from about 80% in 1980-1991 to over 95% in 2000-2010 at the same time the percentage of ill-defined causes of deaths reduced about 53% in the country. The analysis suggests that the government's efforts to improve data quality are proving successful, and they will allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of health and the mortality transition.