Analysis on International Trade of CLM Countries

Since their accession to AFTA, trade volumes of CLM countries have being grown rapidly while their trade patterns and directions have significantly changed. Recognizing the importance of international trade in CLM economies, this study attempts to analyze the trade patterns of CLM countries based the gravity model. The empirical analysis is conducted to identify the determining factors of each country’s bilateral trade flows and policy implications for promoting their trade.

Contents

2009年度調査研究報告書

Chapter 8 Location Choice of Japanese Multinationals: Country Characteristics or Region Characteristics?

In the present global era in which firms choose the location of their plants beyond national borders, location characteristics are important for attracting multinational enterprises (MNEs). The better access to countries with large market is clearly attractive for MNEs. For example, special treatments on tariffs such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) are beneficial for MNEs whose home country does not have such treatments. Not only such country characteristics but also region characteristics (i.e. province-level or city-level ones) matter, particularly in the case that location characteristics differ widely between a nation's regions. The existence of industrial concentration, that is, agglomeration, is a typical regional characteristic. It is with consideration of these country-level and region-level characteristics that MNEs decide their location abroad. A large number of academic studies have investigated in what kinds of countries MNEs locate, i.e. location choice analysis. Employing the usual new economic geography model (i.e. constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function, Dixit-Stiglitz monopolistic competition, and ice-berg trade costs), the literature derives the profit function, of which coefficients are estimated using maximum likelihood procedures. Recent studies are as follows: Head, Rise, and Swenson (1999) for Japanese MNEs in the US; Belderbos and Carree (2002) for Japanese MNEs in China; Head and Mayer (2004) for Japanese MNEs in Europe; Disdier and Mayer (2004) for French MNEs in Europe; Castellani and Zanfei (2004) for large MNEs worldwide; Mayer, Mejean, and Nefussi (2007) for French MNEs worldwide; Crozet, Mayer, and Mucchielli (2004) for MNEs in France; and Basile, Castellani, and Zanfei (2008) for MNEs in Europe. At the present time, three main topics can be found in this literature. The first introduces various location elements as independent variables. The above-mentioned new economic geography model usually yields the profit function, which is a function of market size, productive factor prices, price of intermediate goods, and trade costs. As a proxy for the price of intermediate goods, the measure of agglomeration is often used, particularly the number of manufacturing firms. Some studies employ more disaggregated numbers of manufacturing firms, such as the number of manufacturing firms with the same nationality as the firms choosing the location (e.g., Head et al., 1999; Crozet et al., 2004) or the number of firms belonging to the same firm group (e.g., Belderbos and Carree, 2002). As part of trade costs, some investment climate measures have been examined: free trade zones in the US (Head et al., 1999), special economic zones and opening coastal cities in China (Belderbos and Carree, 2002), and Objective 1 structural funds and cohesion funds in Europe (Basile et al., 2008). Second, the validity of proxy variables for location elements is further examined. Head and Mayer (2004) examine the validity of market potential on location choice. They propose the use of two measures: the Harris market potential index (Harris, 1954) and the Krugman-type index used in Redding and Venables (2004). The Harris-type index is simply the sum of distance-weighted real GDP. They employ the Krugman-type market potential index, which is directly derived from the new economic geography model, as it takes into account the extent of competition (i.e. price index) and is constructed using estimators of importing country dummy variables in the well-known gravity equation, as in Redding and Venables (2004). They find that "theory does not pay", in the sense that the Harris market potential outperforms Krugman's market potential in both the magnitude of its coefficient and the fit of the model to be estimated. The third topic explores the substitution of location by examining inclusive values in the nested-logit model. For example, using firm-level data on French investments both in France and abroad over the 1992-2002 period, Mayer et al. (2007) investigate the determinants of location choice and assess empirically whether the domestic economy has been losing attractiveness over the recent period or not. The estimated coefficient for inclusive value is strongly significant and near unity, indicating that the national economy is not different from the rest of the world in terms of substitution patterns. Similarly, Disdier and Mayer (2004) investigate whether French MNEs consider Western and Eastern Europe as two distinct groups of potential host countries by examining the coefficient for the inclusive value in nested-logit estimation. They confirm the relevance of an East-West structure in the country location decision and furthermore show that this relevance decreases over time. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the location choice of Japanese MNEs in Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam, and is closely related to the third topic mentioned above. By examining region-level location choice with the nested-logit model, I investigate the relative importance of not only country characteristics but also region characteristics. Such investigation is invaluable particularly in the case of location choice in those five countries: industrialization remains immature in those countries which have not yet succeeded in attracting enough MNEs, and as a result, it is expected that there are not yet crucial regional variations for MNEs within such a nation, meaning the country characteristics are still relatively important to attract MNEs. To illustrate, in the case of Cambodia and Laos, one of the crucial elements for Japanese MNEs would be that LDC preferential tariff schemes are available for exports from Cambodia and Laos. On the other hand, in the case of Thailand and Vietnam, which have accepted a relatively large number of MNEs and thus raised the extent of regional inequality, regional characteristics such as the existence of agglomeration would become important elements in location choice. Our sample countries seem, therefore, to offer rich variations for analyzing the relative importance between country characteristics and region characteristics. Our empirical strategy has a further advantage. As in the third topic in the location choice literature, the use of the nested-logit model enables us to examine substitution patterns between country-based and region-based location decisions by MNEs in the concerned countries. For example, it is possible to investigate empirically whether Japanese multinational firms consider Thailand/Vietnam and the other three countries as two distinct groups of potential host countries, by examining the inclusive value parameters in nested-logit estimation. In particular, our sample countries all experienced dramatic changes in, for example, economic growth or trade costs reduction during the sample period. Thus, we will find the dramatic dynamics of such substitution patterns. Our rigorous analysis of the relative importance between country characteristics and region characteristics is invaluable from the viewpoint of policy implications. First, while the former characteristics should be improved mainly by central government in each country, there is sometimes room for the improvement of the latter characteristics by even local governments or smaller institutions such as private agencies. Consequently, it becomes important for these smaller institutions to know just how crucial the improvement of region characteristics is for attracting foreign companies. Second, as economies grow, country characteristics become similar among countries. For example, the LCD preferential tariff schemes are available only when a country is less developed. Therefore, it is important particularly for the least developed countries to know what kinds of regional characteristics become important following economic growth; in other words, after their country characteristics become similar to those of the more developed countries. I also incorporate one important characteristic of MNEs, namely, productivity. The well-known Helpman-Melitz-Yeaple model indicates that only firms with higher productivity can afford overseas entry (Helpman et al., 2004). Beyond this argument, there may be some differences in MNEs' productivity among our sample countries and regions. Such differences are important from the viewpoint of "spillover effects" from MNEs, which are one of the most important results for host countries in accepting their entry. The spillover effects are that the presence of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) aises domestic firms' productivity through various channels such as imitation. Such positive effects might be larger in areas with more productive MNEs. Therefore, it becomes important for host countries to know how much productive firms are likely to invest in them. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 takes a brief look at the worldwide distribution of Japanese overseas affiliates. Section 3 provides an empirical model to examine their location choice, and lastly, we discuss future works to estimate our model.

Growth strategies in a greener world

Two new developments in the global landscape - growing concerns towards global warming and the rising prices of commodities – require countries to craft new growth strategies. These recent developments in the global market offer fresh industrial opportunities as well as difficulties for developing countries embarking on industrialization. In this paper, we examine current developments in global market that would affect industrialization prospects in East Asia and explores development strategies that are suitable for development based on export oriented manufacturing industries in a green world.

Does the use of multiple FTAs force firms to raise local input share? : evidence of the spaghetti bowl phenomenon

This paper empirically investigates the firm-level relationship between the local input share and the number of used FTAs by employing the data on FTA utilization in Japanese affiliates in ASEAN. As a result, we do not find a robust linear relationship. However, affiliates using a large number of FTAs (seven or eight) have an extremely higher share of local inputs. This result might be interpreted as the first evidence of the “spaghetti bowl phenomenon”.

Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia

This paper presents a simulation of the reduction of several components in trade cost for Asia and examines its impact on the economy. Our simulation model based on the new economic geography embraces seven sectors, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and 1,715 regions in 18 countries/economies in Asia, in addition to the two economies of the US and the European Union. The geographical course of transactions among regions is modeled as determined based on firms’ modal choice. The model also includes estimates of some border cost measures such as tariff rates, non-tariff barriers, other border clearance costs, transshipment costs and so on. Our simulation analysis for Asia includes several scenarios involving the improvement/development of routes and the reduction of the above-mentioned border cost. We have shown that the contribution of physical and non-physical infrastructure improvements conducted together is larger than the sum of the contribution by each when conducted independently.

How do free trade agreements change import prices? : firm-level evidence from China's imports from ASEAN

The literature has revealed the positive impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on export prices by employing product-level trade data. This paper empirically examines the impacts of FTAs on import prices at the firm level. We focus on firm-level imports in China from ASEAN countries by employing China’s firm-product-level trade data. As a result, controlling for firm characteristics and product characteristics, we could not find significantly positive impacts of an FTA’s entry into force on import prices of FTA eligible products. Instead, we found a significant increase in import quantities of FTA eligible products. Thus, at the firm level, the gains from FTAs for exporters may be the increase in export quantities rather than the rise in export prices.

FTA in international finance : impacts of exchange rates on FTA utilization

This paper investigates how exchange rates affect the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA) scheme in trading. Changes in exchange rates affect FTA utilization by two ways. The first way is by changing the excess profits gained by utilizing the FTA scheme, and the second way is by promoting the compliance of rules of origin. Our theoretical models predict that the depreciation of exporters' currency against that of importers enhances the likelihood of FTA utilization through those two channels. Furthermore, our empirical analysis, which is based on rich tariff-line-level data on the utilization of FTA schemes in Korea's imports from ASEAN countries, supports the theoretical prediction. We also show that the effects are smaller for more differentiated products.

Measuring population mobility speed from space

Ad-hoc population dynamics in Krugman’s type core and periphery models adjust population share of a region, based on its real wage rate deviation from national average, at pre-specified speed of population mobility. Whereas speed of population mobility is expected to be different across countries, for geographical, cultural, technological, etc. reasons, one common speed is often applied in theoretical and simulation analysis, due to spatially patchy, and temporally infrequent, availability of sub-national regional data. This article demonstrates how, increasingly available, high definition spatio-temporal remote-sensing data, and their by-products, can be used to measure speed of population mobility in national and sub-national level.

Flexibility in Airline Business Models with Core Competence as an Indicator.

The airline industry is often unstable and unpredictable forcing airlines to restructure and create flexible strategies that can respond to external operating environmental changes. In turbulent and competitive environments, firms with higher flexibility perform better and the value of these flexibilities depends on factors of uncertainty in the competitive environment. A model is sought for and arrived at, that shows how an airline business model will function in an uncertain environment with the least reduction in business performance over time. An analysis of the business model flexibility of 17 Airlines from Asia, Europe and Oceania, that is done with core competence as the indicator reveals a picture of inconsistencies in the core competence strategy of certain airlines and the corresponding reduction in business performance. The performance variations are explained from a service oriented core competence strategy employed by airlines that ultimately enables them in having a flexible business model that not only increases business performance but also helps in reducing the uncertainties in the internal and external operating environments.

El análisis de la dirección integrada de proyectos (project & construction management) en el marco europeo: propuesta de regulación en España y su inclusión en la ley de la ordenación de la edificación

El presente trabajo de Tesis Doctoral surge de la Figura de la Dirección Integrada de Proyecto en Edificación (“Project & Construction Management”) y su analisis de la situación regulatoria en la legislación española. El primer planteamiento fue pensar en la situación actual de esta figura en el contexto internacional, para analizar su repercusión en el sector de la edificación, lo cual me llevo a cabo las siguientes preguntas que he reuelto en esta investigación. ¿ Como surge el ¨Project & Construction Management”? ¿ Cuales son sus actividades, funciones y cometidos? ¿ Existe el ¨Project & Construction Management” en otros países? ¿Hay regulación del ¨Project & Construction Management” en esos paises? ¿Cómo es la regulación del ¨Project & Construction Management”? ¿Existe demanda del ¨Project & Construction Management” en España? ¿Cómo es esa demanda en España, y como se puede cuantificar? ¿Existe regulación del ¨Project & Construction Management” en España? ¿ Como debería ser la regulación del ¨Project & Construction Management” en España? Todas las preguntas anteriores las he ido respondiendo con el presente trabajo, llegando a una serie de respuestas, que están reflejadas en el desarrollo del presente trabajo y que resumo: - EL ¨Project & Construction Management” surge a principios del siglo XX en USA, desarrollándose como una disciplina con metodología propia y extendiéndose por otros países. - EL ¨Project & Construction Management” es una disciplina, basada en una metodología propia con herramientas y técnicas para organizar cualquier 14 proyecto de cualquier tipo, pero en este caso un proyecto de edificación, para lo cual he definido con todo detalle esta figura. - El origen del ¨Project & Construction Management” es anglosajón, concretamente en USA, extendiendose luego al Reino Unido, a Europa (Francia y Alemania), a Asia, a América del Sur y a Oceanía. - En todos los paises estudiados (Estados Unidos, Reino Unido, Francia y Alemania) existe una regulación sobre el ¨Project & Construction Management” que me ha servido de base comparativa para introducirla en España. - Hay muchas empresas en España (Nacionales e Internacionales) que ejercen su actividad dentro de este sector, por lo que para realizar un estudio más profundo, hice una muestra de las 30 empresas más significativas, prepare un cuestionario, dividido en 5 apartados: Organizativo, Sectorial, Cualitativo, Cuantitativo y Profesional para obtener una radiogradía de la situación real del sector, y así valorar cual es la importancia de este agente. - Estudié las posibles regulaciones del ¨Project & Construction Management” en España y no encontré ninguna. - El lugar idóneo para que se regule al ¨Project & Construction Management” es la Ley de Ordenación de la Edificación (LOE), ya que la jurisprudencia (sentencias de los tribunales de justicia españoles) le ha asimilado con los agentes de la LOE y se ha basado para absolver o condenar en la Ley de Ordenación de la Edificación. Por lo que el Objetivo fundamental de esta tesis ha sido regular la figura del ¨Project & Construction Management”, traducirla al Castellano, definirla y realizar una estructura de Agente de la Edificación, según la LOE, para poder introducirla dentro de la Legislación Española, con el objeto de mejorar la calidad de la edificación, proteger al usuario, estableciendo responsabilidades y garantías y proteger al ¨Project & Construction Management” de las responsabilidades solidarias. ABSTRACT This Doctoral Thesis figure emerges from the Integrated Building Project ("Project & Construction Management") and his analysis of the regulatory situation in the Spanish legislation. The first approach was to think of the current situation of this figure in the international context, to analyze its impact on the building sector, which I conducted the following questions that I have met in this research. - How did the “Project & Construction Management "? - What are your activities, functions and duties? - Is there a “Project & Construction Management "in other countries? - Is there regulation “Project & Construction Management "in these countries? - How is regulation of ¨ Project & Construction Management "? - Is there demand “Project & Construction Management "in Spain? - How is that demand in Spain, and as you can quantify? - Is there regulation “Project & Construction Management "in Spain? - How should regulation ¨Project & Construction Management "in Spain? All the above questions have been answered with this study, leading to a series of responses, which are reflected in the development of this study and are summarized: - The ¨ Project & Construction Management "comes early twentieth century in the USA, developed as a discipline with its own methodology and extending other countries. - The ¨ Project & Construction Management "is a discipline based on a metodology own tools and techniques to organize any project of any kind, but in this case a building project, for which I have defined in detail this figure. - The origin of ¨Project & Construction Management "is Anglo-Saxon, particularly in USA, then spreading to the UK, Europe (France and Germany), Asia, South America and Oceania. - In all countries studied (USA, UK, France and Germany) there is a regulation on ¨Project & Construction Management "has helped me to introduce comparative base in Spain. - There are many companies in Spain (National and International) who perform work within this sector, so for further study, I made a sample of the 30 most important companies, prepare a questionnaire, divided into five sections: Organizational , Sector, Qualitative, Quantitative and Professional radiography for a real situation of the sector, and thus assess which is the importance of this agent. - Study the possible regulations ¨Project & Construction Management "in Spain and found none. - The place to be regulated to ¨Project & Construction Management "is the Law of Construction Planning (LOE), as the case law (judgments of the courts Spanish) has assimilated LOE agents and has been based to absolve or condemn Law Construction Planning. So the objective of this thesis has been regular figure ¨ Project & Construction Management ", translated to spanish, define and perform an Agent structure of the Building, as the LOE, to enter into Spanish law, in order to improve the quality of the building, protecting the user, establishing responsibilities and guarantees and protect the ¨ Project & Construction Management "solidarity responsibilities.

Identifying the core competence as a key requirement for business model innovation. The case of Airlines as a service industry

Core competencies form the basis of an organization’s skills and the basic element of a successful strategic execution. Identifying and strengthening the core competencies enhances flexibility thereby strategically positioning a firm for responding to competition in the dynamic marketplace and can be the difference in quality among firms that follow the same business model. A correct understanding of the concept of business models, employing the right core competencies, organizing them effectively and building the business model around the competencies that are constantly gained and assimilated can result in enhanced business performance and thus having implications for firms that want to innovate their business models. Flexibility can be the firm’s agility to shift focus in response to external factors such as changing markets, new technologies or competition and a firm’s success can be gauged by the ability it displays in this transition. Although industry transformations generally emanate from technological changes, recent examples suggests they may also be due to the introduction of new business models and nowhere is it more relevant than in the airline industry. An analysis of the business model flexibility of 17 Airlines from Asia, Europe and Oceania, that is done with core competence as the indicator reveals a picture of inconsistencies in the core competence strategy of certain airlines and the corresponding reduction in business performance. The performance variations are explained from a service oriented core competence strategy employed by airlines that ultimately enables them in having a flexible business model that not only increases business performance but also helps in reducing the uncertainties in the internal and external operating environments. This is more relevant in the case of airline industry, as the product (the air transportation of passengers) minus the service competence is all the same.

Tree height integrated into pantropical forest biomass estimates

Aboveground tropical tree biomass and carbon storage estimates commonly ignore tree height (H). We estimate the effect of incorporating H on tropics-wide forest biomass estimates in 327 plots across four continents using 42 656 H and diameter measurements and harvested trees from 20 sites to answer the following questions: 1. What is the best H-model form and geographic unit to include in biomass models to minimise site-level uncertainty in estimates of destructive biomass? 2. To what extent does including H estimates derived in (1) reduce uncertainty in biomass estimates across all 327 plots? 3. What effect does accounting for H have on plot- and continental-scale forest biomass estimates? The mean relative error in biomass estimates of destructively harvested trees when including H (mean 0.06), was half that when excluding H (mean 0.13). Power- andWeibull-H models provided the greatest reduction in uncertainty, with regional Weibull-H models preferred because they reduce uncertainty in smaller-diameter classes (?40 cm D) that store about one-third of biomass per hectare in most forests. Propagating the relationships from destructively harvested tree biomass to each of the 327 plots from across the tropics shows that including H reduces errors from 41.8Mgha?1 (range 6.6 to 112.4) to 8.0Mgha?1 (?2.5 to 23.0). For all plots, aboveground live biomass was ?52.2 Mgha?1 (?82.0 to ?20.3 bootstrapped 95%CI), or 13%, lower when including H estimates, with the greatest relative reductions in estimated biomass in forests of the Brazilian Shield, east Africa, and Australia, and relatively little change in the Guiana Shield, central Africa and southeast Asia. Appreciably different stand structure was observed among regions across the tropical continents, with some storing significantly more biomass in small diameter stems, which affects selection of the best height models to reduce uncertainty and biomass reductions due to H. After accounting for variation in H, total biomass per hectare is greatest in Australia, the Guiana Shield, Asia, central and east Africa, and lowest in eastcentral Amazonia, W. Africa, W. Amazonia, and the Brazilian Shield (descending order). Thus, if tropical forests span 1668 million km2 and store 285 Pg C (estimate including H), then applying our regional relationships implies that carbon storage is overestimated by 35 PgC (31?39 bootstrapped 95%CI) if H is ignored, assuming that the sampled plots are an unbiased statistical representation of all tropical forest in terms of biomass and height factors. Our results show that tree H is an important allometric factor that needs to be included in future forest biomass estimates to reduce error in estimates of tropical carbon stocks and emissions due to deforestation.

Distribution of haplotypes from a chromosome 21 region distinguishes multiple prehistoric human migrations

Despite mounting genetic evidence implicating a recent origin of modern humans, the elucidation of early migratory gene-flow episodes remains incomplete. Geographic distribution of haplotypes may show traces of ancestral migrations. However, such evolutionary signatures can be erased easily by recombination and mutational perturbations. A 565-bp chromosome 21 region near the MX1 gene, which contains nine sites frequently polymorphic in human populations, has been found. It is unaffected by recombination and recurrent mutation and thus reflects only migratory history, genetic drift, and possibly selection. Geographic distribution of contemporary haplotypes implies distinctive prehistoric human migrations: one to Oceania, one to Asia and subsequently to America, and a third one predominantly to Europe. The findings with chromosome 21 are confirmed by independent evidence from a Y chromosome phylogeny. Loci of this type will help to decipher the evolutionary history of modern humans.

Polynesian origins: Insights from the Y chromosome

The question surrounding the colonization of Polynesia has remained controversial. Two hypotheses, one postulating Taiwan as the putative homeland and the other asserting a Melanesian origin of the Polynesian people, have received considerable attention. In this work, we present haplotype data based on the distribution of 19 biallelic polymorphisms on the Y chromosome in a sample of 551 male individuals from 36 populations living in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia. Surprisingly, nearly none of the Taiwanese Y haplotypes were found in Micronesia and Polynesia. Likewise, a Melanesian-specific haplotype was not found among the Polynesians. However, all of the Polynesian, Micronesian, and Taiwanese haplotypes are present in the extant Southeast Asian populations. Evidently, the Y-chromosome data do not lend support to either of the prevailing hypotheses. Rather, we postulate that Southeast Asia provided a genetic source for two independent migrations, one toward Taiwan and the other toward Polynesia through island Southeast Asia.