Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

Modelling climate change: the role of unresolved processes

Our understanding of the climate system has been revolutionized recently, by the development of sophisticated computer models. The predictions of such models are used to formulate international protocols, intended to mitigate the severity of global warming and its impacts. Yet, these models are not perfect representations of reality, because they remove from explicit consideration many physical processes which are known to be key aspects of the climate system, but which are too small or fast to be modelled. The purpose of this paper is to give a personal perspective of the current state of knowledge regarding the problem of unresolved scales in climate models. A recent novel solution to the problem is discussed, in which it is proposed, somewhat counter-intuitively, that the performance of models may be improved by adding random noise to represent the unresolved processes.

Surface wave processes in air-sea interaction

We review briefly recent progress on understanding the role of surface waves on the marine atmospheric boundary layer and the ocean mixed layer and give a global perspective on these processes by analysing ERA-40 data. Ocean surface waves interact with the marine atmospheric boundary layer in two broad regimes: (i) the conventional wind-driven wave regime, when fast winds blow over slower moving waves, and (ii) a wave-driven wind regime when long wavelength swell propagates under low winds, and generates a wave-driven jet in the lower part of the marine boundary layer. Analysis of ERA-40 data indicates that the wave-driven wind regime is as prevalent as the conventional wind-driven regime. Ocean surface waves also change profoundly mixing in the ocean mixed layer through generation of Langmuir circulation. Results from large-eddy simulation are used here to develop a scaling for the resulting Langmuir turbulence, which is a necessary step in developing a parametrization of the process. ERA-40 data is then used to show that the Langmuir regime is the predominant regime over much of the global ocean, providing a compelling motivation for parameterising this process in ocean general circulation models.

The impact of moist processes on the African easterly jet-African easterly wave system

The African Easterly Jet-Easterly Wave (AEJ-AEW) system was explored in an idealised model. Prescribed zonally symmetric surface temperature and moisture profiles determine the AEJ which becomes established through meridional contrasts in dry and moist convection.As in previous studies, a realistic AEJ developed with only dry convection. Including moist processes, increased its development rate, but reduced its speed and meridional extent. AEWs grew through barotropic-baroclinic conversions. Negative meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients arose in the zonally symmetric state through the intrusion of the low-PV Saharan boundary layer. Since moist processes strengthened this significantly through diabatically generated PV in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, moist AEWs were three times stronger. Larger barotropic conversions and faster AEJ development increased the moist wave growth-rate. Jet-level and northerly low-level amplitudes grew, but in the moist case the low-level amplitudes weakened as the AEW interacted with convection, consistent with their absence from observations during the peak monsoon. Striking dependencies between the AEJ, AEW and rainfall existed. Two time-scales governed their evolution, depending on the transfer coefficients: (1) the AEJ's replenishment rate influenced by heat fluxes, and (2) the wave growth-rate, by damping, and the slower jet development rate.Moist AEWs were characterized by intermittent growth/decay, with growth preceded by increased mean rainfall and later, weakening AEJs. These dependencies established an internal 8-10-day variability, consistent with intra-seasonal observations of 9-day rainy sequences. This internal variability offers an alternative explanation to the previously proposed external forcing and a new view of the moist AEW life cycle. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

A geomatics-based approach for the derivation of the spatial distribution of sediment transport processes in periglacial mountain environments

Within this paper modern techniques such as satellite image analysis and tools provided by geographic information systems (GIS.) are exploited in order to extend and improve existing techniques for mapping the spatial distribution of sediment transport processes. The processes of interest comprise mass movements such as solifluction, slope wash, dirty avalanches and rock- and boulder falls. They differ considerably in nature and therefore different approaches for the derivation of their spatial extent are required. A major challenge is addressing the differences between the comparably coarse resolution of the available satellite data (Landsat TM/ETM+, 30 in x 30 m) and the actual scale of sediment transport in this environment. A three-stepped approach has been developed which is based on the concept of Geomorphic Process Units (GPUs): parameterization, process area delineation and combination. Parameters include land cover from satellite data and digital elevation model derivatives. Process areas are identified using a hierarchical classification scheme utilizing thresholds and definition of topology. The approach has been developed for the Karkevagge in Sweden and could be successfully transferred to the Rabotsbekken catchment at Okstindan, Norway using similar input data. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quantifying sediment transport processes in periglacial mountain environments at a catchment scale using geomorphic process units

The research record on the quantification of sediment transport processes in periglacial mountain environments in Scandimvia dates back to the 1950s. A wide range of measurements is. available, especially from the Karkevagge region of northern Sweden. Within this paper satellite image analysis and tools provided by geographic information systems (GIS) are exploited in order to extend and improve this research and to complement geophysical methods. The processes of interest include mass movements such as solifluction, slope wash, dirty avalanches and rock-and boulder falls. Geomorphic process units have been derived in order to allow quantification via GIS techniques at a catchment scale. Mass movement rates based on existing Field measurements are employed in the budget calculation. In the Karkevagge catch ment. 80% of the area can be identified either as a source area for sediments or as a zone where sediments are deposited. The overall budget for the slopes beneath the rockwalls in the Karkevagge is approximately 680 t a(-1) whilst about 150 : a-1 are transported into the fluvial System.

Mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes in the Okstindan area of northern Norway, using Geomorphic Process Units as derived from remote sensing and ground survey

The delineation of Geomorphic Process Units (GPUs) aims to quantify past, current and future geomorphological processes and the sediment flux associated with them. Five GPUs have been identified for the Okstindan area of northern Norway and these were derived from the combination of Landsat satellite imagery (TM and ETM+) with stereo aerial photographs (used to construct a Digital Elevation Model) and ground survey. The Okstindan study area is sub-arctic and mountainous and is dominated by glacial and periglacial processes. The GPUs exclude the glacial system (some 37% of the study area) and hence they are focussed upon periglacial and colluvial processes. The identified GPUs are: 1. solifluction and rill erosion; 2. talus creep, slope wash and rill erosion; 3. accumulation of debris by rock and boulder fall; 4. rockwalls; and 5. stable ground with dissolved transport. The GPUs have been applied to a ‘test site’ within the study area in order to illustrate their potential for mapping the spatial distribution of geomorphological processes. The test site within the study area is a catchment which is representative of the range of geomorphological processes identified.

Mineralised organic remains from cesspits at the Roman town of Silchester: Processes and preservation

Mineralised organic remains (including apple pips and cereal grains) collected during the ongoing excavations of Insula IX at the Roman town of Silchester, Hampshire have been analysed by a combination of SEM-EDX, powder XRD and IR spectroscopy. The experiments included mapping experiments using spatially resolved versions of each technique. IR and powder XRD mapping have been carried out utilising the synchrotron source at The Daresbury Laboratory oil stations 11.1 and 9.6. It is concluded that these samples are preserved by rapid mineralisation in the carbonate-substituted calcium phosphate mineral, dahllite. The rapid mineralisation leads to excellent preservation of the samples and a small crystal size. The value of IR spectroscopy in studying materials like this where the crystal size is small is demonstrated. A comparison is made between the excellent preservation seen in this context and the much poorer preservation of mineralised remains seen in Context 5276 or Cesspit 5251. Comments on the possible mechanism of mineralisation of these samples are made. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.

Impulsiveness as a timing disturbance: neurocognitive abnormalities in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder during temporal processes and normalization with methylphenidate.

We argue that impulsiveness is characterized by compromised timing functions such as premature motor timing, decreased tolerance to delays, poor temporal foresight and steeper temporal discounting. A model illustration for the association between impulsiveness and timing deficits is the impulsiveness disorder of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Children with ADHD have deficits in timing processes of several temporal domains and the neural substrates of these compromised timing functions are strikingly similar to the neuropathology of ADHD. We review our published and present novel functional magnetic resonance imaging data to demonstrate that ADHD children show dysfunctions in key timing regions of prefrontal, cingulate, striatal and cerebellar location during temporal processes of several time domains including time discrimination of milliseconds, motor timing to seconds and temporal discounting of longer time intervals. Given that impulsiveness, timing abnormalities and more specifically ADHD have been related to dopamine dysregulation, we tested for and demonstrated a normalization effect of all brain dysfunctions in ADHD children during time discrimination with the dopamine agonist and treatment of choice, methylphenidate. This review together with the new empirical findings demonstrates that neurocognitive dysfunctions in temporal processes are crucial to the impulsiveness disorder of ADHD and provides first evidence for normalization with a dopamine reuptake inhibitor.

Gender stereotyping and decision processes: extending and reversing the gender bias in fame judgements

M. R. Banaji and A. G. Greenwald (1995) demonstrated a gender bias in fame judgments—that is, an increase in judged fame due to prior processing that was larger for male than for female names. They suggested that participants shift criteria between judging men and women, using the more liberal criterion for judging men. This "criterion-shift" account appeared problematic for a number of reasons. In this article, 3 experiments are reported that were designed to evaluate the criterion-shift account of the gender bias in the false-fame effect against a distribution-shift account. The results were consistent with the criterion-shift account, and they helped to define more precisely the situations in which people may be ready to shift their response criterion on an item-by-item basis. In addition, the results were incompatible with an interpretation of the criterion shift as an artifact of the experimental situation in the experiments reported by M. R. Banaji and A. G. Greenwald. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)

Implicit and explicit processes in a second-language learning task

Two experiments examined the learning of a set of Greek pronunciation rules through explicit and implicit modes of rule presentation. Experiment 1 compared the effectiveness of implicit and explicit modes of presentation in two modalities, visual and auditory. Subjects in the explicit or rule group were presented with the rule set, and those in the implicit or natural group were shown a set of Greek words, composed of letters from the rule set, linked to their pronunciations. Subjects learned the Greek words to criterion and were then given a series of tests which aimed to tap different types of knowledge. The results showed an advantage of explicit study of the rules. In addition, an interaction was found between mode of presentation and modality. Explicit instruction was more effective in the visual than in the auditory modality, whereas there was no modality effect for implicit instruction. Experiment 2 examined a possible reason for the advantage of the rule groups by comparing different combinations of explicit and implicit presentation in the study and learning phases. The results suggested that explicit presentation of the rules is only beneficial when it is followed by practice at applying them.