Business cycle measurement with some theory

A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specificationof the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use someto identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. Theapproach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. Themethod is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers)in a standard class of models.

Weights in the balance: jasmonic acid and salicylic acid signaling in root-biotroph interactions.

Work on the interaction of aerial plant parts with pathogens has identified the signaling molecules jasmonic acid (JA) and salicylic acid (SA) as important players in induced defense of the plant against invading organisms. Much less is known about the role of JA and SA signaling in root infection. Recent progress has been made in research on plant interactions with biotrophic mutualists and parasites that exclusively associate with roots, namely arbuscular mycorrhizal and rhizobial symbioses on one hand and nematode and parasitic plant interactions on the other hand. Here, we review these recent advances relating JA and SA signaling to specific stages of root colonization and discuss how both signaling molecules contribute to a balance between compatibility and defense in mutualistic as well as parasitic biotroph-root interactions.

Prostaglandin E2 promotes integrin alpha Vbeta 3-dependent endothelial cell adhesion, rac-activation, and spreading through cAMP/PKA-dependent signaling.

We have recently reported that the inhibition of endothelial cell COX-2 by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs suppresses alpha(V)beta(3)- (but not alpha(5)beta(1)-) dependent Rac activation, endothelial cell spreading, migration, and angiogenesis (Dormond, O., Foletti, A., Paroz, C., and Ruegg, C. (2001) Nat. Med. 7, 1041-1047). Here we investigated the role of the COX-2 metabolites PGE(2) and TXA2 in regulating human umbilical vein endothelial cell (HUVEC) adhesion and spreading. We report that PGE(2) accelerated alpha(V)beta(3)-mediated HUVEC adhesion and promoted Rac activation and cell spreading, whereas the TXA2 agonist retarded adhesion and inhibited spreading. We show that the cAMP level and the cAMP-regulated protein kinase A (PKA) activity are critical mediators of these PGE(2) effects. alpha(V)beta(3)-mediated adhesion induced a transient COX-2-dependent rise in cAMP levels, whereas the cell-permeable cAMP analogue 8-brcAMP accelerated adhesion, promoted Rac activation, and cell spreading in the presence of the COX-2 inhibitor NS-398. Pharmacological inhibition of PKA completely blocked alpha(V)beta(3)-mediated adhesion. A constitutively active Rac mutant (L61Rac) rescued alpha(V)beta(3)-dependent spreading in the presence of NS398 or, but did not accelerate adhesion, whereas a dominant negative Rac mutant (N17Rac) suppressed spreading without affecting adhesion. alpha(5)beta(1)-mediated HUVEC adhesion, Rac activation, and spreading were not affected by PGE(2), 8-brcAMP, or the inhibition of PKA. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that PGE(2) accelerates alpha(V)beta(3)-mediated endothelial cell adhesion through cAMP-dependent PKA activation and induces alpha(V)beta(3)-dependent spreading via cAMP- and PKA-dependent Rac activation and may contribute to the further understanding of the regulation of vascular integrins alpha(V)beta(3) by COX-2/PGE(2) during tumor angiogenesis and inflammation.

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

The optimum quantity of money: Theory and evidence

In this paper we propose a simple and general model for computing the Ramsey optimal inflation tax, which includes several models from the previous literature as special cases. We show that it cannot be claimed that the Friedman rule is always optimal (or always non--optimal) on theoretical grounds. The Friedman rule is optimal or not, depending on conditions related to the shape of various relevant functions. One contribution of this paper is to relate these conditions to {\it measurable} variables such as the interest rate or the consumption elasticity of money demand. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money when there are economies of scale in the demand for money (the scale elasticity is smaller than one) and/or when money is required for the payment of consumption or wage taxes. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money more heavily when the interest elasticity of money demand is small. We present empirical evidence on the parameters that determine the optimal inflation tax. Calibrating the model to a variety of empirical studies yields a optimal nominal interest rate of less than 1\%/year, although that finding is sensitive to the calibration.

Lack of Smad3 signaling leads to impaired skeletal muscle regeneration.

Smad3 is a key intracellular signaling mediator for both transforming growth factor-β and myostatin, two major regulators of skeletal muscle growth. Previous published work has revealed pronounced muscle atrophy together with impaired satellite cell functionality in Smad3-null muscles. In the present study, we have further validated a role for Smad3 signaling in skeletal muscle regeneration. Here, we show that Smad3-null mice had incomplete recovery of muscle weight and myofiber size after muscle injury. Histological/immunohistochemical analysis suggested impaired inflammatory response and reduced number of activated myoblasts during the early stages of muscle regeneration in the tibialis anterior muscle of Smad3-null mice. Nascent myofibers formed after muscle injury were also reduced in number. Moreover, Smad3-null regenerated muscle had decreased oxidative enzyme activity and impaired mitochondrial biogenesis, evident by the downregulation of the gene encoding mitochondrial transcription factor A, a master regulator of mitochondrial biogenesis. Consistent with known Smad3 function, reduced fibrotic tissue formation was also seen in regenerated Smad3-null muscle. In conclusion, Smad3 deficiency leads to impaired muscle regeneration, which underscores an essential role of Smad3 in postnatal myogenesis. Given the negative role of myostatin during muscle regeneration, the increased expression of myostatin observed in Smad3-null muscle may contribute to the regeneration defects.

Relative price riddles in international business cycle theory: Are transport costs the explanation?

We study relative price behavior in an international business cyclemodel with specialization in production, in which a goods marketfriction is introduced through transport costs. The transporttechnology allows for flexible transport costs. We analyze whetherthis extension can account for the striking differences betweentheory and data as far as the moments of terms of trade and realexchange rates are concerned. We find that transport costs increaseboth the volatility of the terms of trade and the volatility of thereal exchange rate. However, unless the transport technology isspecified by a Leontief technology, transport costs do not resolvethe quantitative discrepancies between theory and data. Asurprising result is that transport costs may actually lower thepersistence of the real exchange rate, a finding that is in contrastto much of the emphasis of the empirical literature.

Social security in theory and practice (II): Efficiency theories, narrative theories and implications for reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forcescreate and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "governmenteconomizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory".The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

Credit cycles in theory and experiment

We test in the laboratory the potential of evolutionary dynamics as predictor of actual behavior. To this end, we propose an asymmetricgame -which we interpret as a borrowerlender relation-, study itsevolutionary dynamics in a random matching set-up, and tests itspredictions. The model provides conditions for the existence ofcredit markets and credit cycles. The theoretical predictions seemto be good approximations of the experimental results.

Horizontal innovation in the theory of growth and development

We analyze recent contributions to growth theory based on the model of expanding variety of Romer (1990). In the first part, we present different versions of the benchmark linear model with imperfect competition. These include the labequipment model, labor-for-intermediates and directed technical change . We review applications of the expanding variety framework to the analysis of international technology diffusion, trade, cross-country productivity differences, financial development and fluctuations. In many such applications, a key role is played by complementarities in the process of innovation.

Molecular modeling study of the binding and signaling properties of the TCRpMHC complex

The activation of the specific immune response against tumor cells is based on the recognition by the CD8+ Cytotoxic Τ Lymphocytes (CTL), of antigenic peptides (p) presented at the surface of the cell by the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC). The ability of the so-called T-Cell Receptors (TCR) to discriminate between self and non-self peptides constitutes the most important specific control mechanism against infected cells. The TCR/pMHC interaction has been the subject of much attention in cancer therapy since the design of the adoptive transfer approach, in which Τ lymphocytes presenting an interesting response against tumor cells are extracted from the patient, expanded in vitro, and reinfused after immunodepletion, possibly leading to cancer regression. In the last decade, major progress has been achieved by the introduction of engineered lypmhocytes. In the meantime, the understanding of the molecular aspects of the TCRpMHC interaction has become essential to guide in vitro and in vivo studies. In 1996, the determination of the first structure of a TCRpMHC complex by X-ray crystallography revealed the molecular basis of the interaction. Since then, molecular modeling techniques have taken advantage of crystal structures to study the conformational space of the complex, and understand the specificity of the recognition of the pMHC by the TCR. In the meantime, experimental techniques used to determine the sequences of TCR that bind to a pMHC complex have been used intensively, leading to the collection of large repertoires of TCR sequences that are specific for a given pMHC. There is a growing need for computational approaches capable of predicting the molecular interactions that occur upon TCR/pMHC binding without relying on the time consuming resolution of a crystal structure. This work presents new approaches to analyze the molecular principles that govern the recognition of the pMHC by the TCR and the subsequent activation of the T-cell. We first introduce TCRep 3D, a new method to model and study the structural properties of TCR repertoires, based on homology and ab initio modeling. We discuss the methodology in details, and demonstrate that it outperforms state of the art modeling methods in predicting relevant TCR conformations. Two successful applications of TCRep 3D that supported experimental studies on TCR repertoires are presented. Second, we present a rigid body study of TCRpMHC complexes that gives a fair insight on the TCR approach towards pMHC. We show that the binding mode of the TCR is correctly described by long-distance interactions. Finally, the last section is dedicated to a detailed analysis of an experimental hydrogen exchange study, which suggests that some regions of the constant domain of the TCR are subject to conformational changes upon binding to the pMHC. We propose a hypothesis of the structural signaling of TCR molecules leading to the activation of the T-cell. It is based on the analysis of correlated motions in the TCRpMHC structure. - L'activation de la réponse immunitaire spécifique dirigée contre les cellules tumorales est basée sur la reconnaissance par les Lymphocytes Τ Cytotoxiques (CTL), d'un peptide antigénique (p) présenté à la suface de la cellule par le complexe majeur d'histocompatibilité de classe I (MHC). La capacité des récepteurs des lymphocytes (TCR) à distinguer les peptides endogènes des peptides étrangers constitue le mécanisme de contrôle le plus important dirigé contre les cellules infectées. L'interaction entre le TCR et le pMHC est le sujet de beaucoup d'attention dans la thérapie du cancer, depuis la conception de la méthode de transfer adoptif: les lymphocytes capables d'une réponse importante contre les cellules tumorales sont extraits du patient, amplifiés in vitro, et réintroduits après immunosuppression. Il peut en résulter une régression du cancer. Ces dix dernières années, d'importants progrès ont été réalisés grâce à l'introduction de lymphocytes modifiés par génie génétique. En parallèle, la compréhension du TCRpMHC au niveau moléculaire est donc devenue essentielle pour soutenir les études in vitro et in vivo. En 1996, l'obtention de la première structure du complexe TCRpMHC à l'aide de la cristallographie par rayons X a révélé les bases moléculaires de l'interaction. Depuis lors, les techniques de modélisation moléculaire ont exploité les structures expérimentales pour comprendre la spécificité de la reconnaissance du pMHC par le TCR. Dans le même temps, de nouvelles techniques expérimentales permettant de déterminer la séquence de TCR spécifiques envers un pMHC donné, ont été largement exploitées. Ainsi, d'importants répertoires de TCR sont devenus disponibles, et il est plus que jamais nécessaire de développer des approches informatiques capables de prédire les interactions moléculaires qui ont lieu lors de la liaison du TCR au pMHC, et ce sans dépendre systématiquement de la résolution d'une structure cristalline. Ce mémoire présente une nouvelle approche pour analyser les principes moléculaires régissant la reconnaissance du pMHC par le TCR, et l'activation du lymphocyte qui en résulte. Dans un premier temps, nous présentons TCRep 3D, une nouvelle méthode basée sur les modélisations par homologie et ab initio, pour l'étude de propriétés structurales des répertoires de TCR. Le procédé est discuté en détails et comparé à des approches standard. Nous démontrons ainsi que TCRep 3D est le plus performant pour prédire des conformations pertinentes du TCR. Deux applications à des études expérimentales des répertoires TCR sont ensuite présentées. Dans la seconde partie de ce travail nous présentons une étude de complexes TCRpMHC qui donne un aperçu intéressant du mécanisme d'approche du pMHC par le TCR. Finalement, la dernière section se concentre sur l'analyse détaillée d'une étude expérimentale basée sur les échanges deuterium/hydrogène, dont les résultats révèlent que certaines régions clés du domaine constant du TCR sont sujettes à un changement conformationnel lors de la liaison au pMHC. Nous proposons une hypothèse pour la signalisation structurelle des TCR, menant à l'activation du lymphocyte. Celle-ci est basée sur l'analyse des mouvements corrélés observés dans la structure du TCRpMHC.

PPARβ/δ governs Wnt signaling and bone turnover.

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) act as metabolic sensors and central regulators of fat and glucose homeostasis. Furthermore, PPARγ has been implicated as major catabolic regulator of bone mass in mice and humans. However, a potential involvement of other PPAR subtypes in the regulation of bone homeostasis has remained elusive. Here we report a previously unrecognized role of PPARβ/δ as a key regulator of bone turnover and the crosstalk between osteoblasts and osteoclasts. In contrast to activation of PPARγ, activation of PPARβ/δ amplified Wnt-dependent and β-catenin-dependent signaling and gene expression in osteoblasts, resulting in increased expression of osteoprotegerin (OPG) and attenuation of osteoblast-mediated osteoclastogenesis. Accordingly, PPARβ/δ-deficient mice had lower Wnt signaling activity, lower serum concentrations of OPG, higher numbers of osteoclasts and osteopenia. Pharmacological activation of PPARβ/δ in a mouse model of postmenopausal osteoporosis led to normalization of the altered ratio of tumor necrosis factor superfamily, member 11 (RANKL, also called TNFSF11) to OPG, a rebalancing of bone turnover and the restoration of normal bone density. Our findings identify PPARβ/δ as a promising target for an alternative approach in the treatment of osteoporosis and related diseases.

TCR signaling requirements for activating T cells and for generating memory.

Over the last two decades the molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying T cell activation, expansion, differentiation, and memory formation have been intensively investigated. These studies revealed that the generation of memory T cells is critically impacted by a number of factors, including the magnitude of the inflammatory response and cytokine production, the type of dendritic cell [DC] that presents the pathogen derived antigen, their maturation status, and the concomitant provision of costimulation. Nevertheless, the primary stimulus leading to T cell activation is generated through the T cell receptor [TCR] following its engagement with a peptide MHC ligand [pMHC]. The purpose of this review is to highlight classical and recent findings on how antigen recognition, the degree of TCR stimulation, and intracellular signal transduction pathways impact the formation of effector and memory T cells.

Contracting externalities and multiple equilibria in sectors: Theory and evidence

We consider an economy where the production technology has constantreturns to scale but where in the descentralized equilibrium thereare aggregate increasing returns to scale. The result follows froma positive contracting externality among firms. If a firms issurrounded by more firms, employees have more opportunitiesoutside their own firm. This improves employees' incentives toinvest in the presence of ex post renegotiation at the firm level,at not cost. Our leading result is that if a region is sparselypopulated or if the degree of development in the region is lowenough, there are multiple equilibria in the level of sectorialemployment. From the theoretical model we derive a non-linearfirst-order censored difference equation for sectoral employment.Our results are strongly consistent with the multiple equilibriahypothesis and the existence of a sectoral critical scale (belowwich the sector follows a delocation process). The scale of theregions' population and the degree of development reduce thecritical scale of the sector.