Probabilistic tsunami hazard in the Northeast Atlantic from near- and far-field tectonic sources

In this article, we present the first study on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Northeast (NE) Atlantic region related to earthquake sources. The methodology combines the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical approaches. We consider three main tsunamigenic areas, namely the Southwest Iberian Margin, the Gloria, and the Caribbean. For each tsunamigenic zone, we derive the annual recurrence rate for each magnitude range, from Mw 8.0 up to Mw 9.0, with a regular interval, using the Bayesian method, which incorporates seismic information from historical and instrumental catalogs. A numerical code, solving the shallow water equations, is employed to simulate the tsunami propagation and compute near shore wave heights. The probability of exceeding a specific tsunami hazard level during a given time period is calculated using the Poisson distribution. The results are presented in terms of the probability of exceedance of a given tsunami amplitude for 100- and 500-year return periods. The hazard level varies along the NE Atlantic coast, being maximum along the northern segment of the Morocco Atlantic coast, the southern Portuguese coast, and the Spanish coast of the Gulf of Cadiz. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere in the NE Atlantic region reaches 60 and 100 % for 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. These probability values decrease, respectively, to about 15 and 50 % when considering the exceedance threshold of 5 m for the same return periods of 100 and 500 years.

Les plus anciens mammifères terrestres du Miocène marin de Lisbonne - le gisement du Km 10

For the first time, small mammals were found at the earliest marine level in the northeastern part of the lower Tagus basin, to the NE of Lisbon. At this new locality, at the 10 kilometer of the Lisbon-Oporto A1-IP1 highway,conglomerates yielded, along with marine fossils, more or less abraded teeth and bones from insectivores,lagomorphs, rodents and small artiodactyls (sec Tableau 1). Age may he ascribed to the lower Miocene, MN 2b Neogene mammal unit (about 22 My), but an early MN 3 age cannot be entirely excluded. That corresponds to latest Aquitanian (or less probably earliest Burdigalian) (sec Tableau 2). This is the first hitherto found locality with small mammals of this age as far as Portugal is concerned, as well as the oldest locality so far known in the Tagus basin. Km 10 is somewhat older than the localities of Universidade Católica and Avenida do Uruguay in Lisbon (ANTUNES & MEIN, 1986). Hence we can rather accurately date the age of the first marine transgression in the northeastern part of the lower Tagus basin. This shows that in this region there are no marine equivalents of the "Venus ribeiroi beds" (Aquitanian,Division 1 of the Lisbon Miocene series). Correlation between this unit and the uppermost levels of the essentially paleogene "Complexo de Benfica" may be possible. Fossils at km 10 point out to shallow, coastal, highenergy marine environments. Sedimentological features are compatible with this model. Dry land and swamps with brackish (or ev en fresh) waters were present nearby. From those areas came remains of mammals, crocodylians, as well as oysters and charophytes that were later transported to the sea. Sea was warmer than the extant Atlantic at the same latitudes, even if conditions were not strictly tropical then. These conditions surely influenced climate in the nearby regions. Ecological data concerning mammalian faunas distinctly point out to nearby forest-rich environments, much more so than for Universidade Católica and Avenida do Uruguay localities, from where drier, even steppe environment forms largely prevail.

Severity and exposure associated with tsunami actions in urban waterfronts: the case of Lisbon, Portugal

The Tagus estuary is bordered by the largest metropolitan area in Portugal, the Lisbon capital city council. It has suffered the impact of several major tsunamis in the past, as shown by a recent revision of the catalogue of tsunamis that struck the Portuguese coast over the past two millennia. Hence, the exposure of populations and infrastructure established along the riverfront comprises a critical concern for the civil protection services. The main objectives of this work are to determine critical inundation areas in Lisbon and to quantify the associated severity through a simple index derived from the local maximum of momentum flux per unit mass and width. The employed methodology is based on the mathematical modelling of a tsunami propagating along the estuary, resembling the one occurred on the 1 November of 1755 that followed the 8.5 M-w Great Lisbon Earthquake. The employed simulation tool was STAV-2D, a shallow-flow solver coupled with conservation equations for fine solid phases, and now featuring the novelty of discrete Lagrangian tracking of large debris. Different sets of initial conditions were studied, combining distinct tidal, atmospheric and fluvial scenarios, so that the civil protection services were provided with comprehensive information to devise public warning and alert systems and post-event mitigation intervention. For the most severe scenario, the obtained results have shown a maximum inundation extent of 1.29 km at the AlcA cent ntara valley and water depths reaching nearly 10 m across Lisbon's riverfront.

Le gisement de Asseiceira, Portugal (Miocène supérieur) Données complémentaires sur Freiria de Rio Maior

A new upper Miocene locality at Asseiceira (Rio Maior), near the top of the "Calcários de Almoster e Santarém" unit (Almoster and Santarém limestones) is studied. Animal and plant fossils are described. Comparisons are drawn to other localities related to the same unit: Freiria and Azambujeira (middle and upper levels, both with large mammals). Small mammals from Asseiceira and Freiria point out to a rather old age amidst the upper Vallesian, MN 10 mammal-unit. This gives a fairly accurate datation for the "Calcários de Almoster e Santarém" and for the short time span of the corresponding sedimentation. Climate was warm and quite dry, with contrasting seasons and arid events. During upper Vallesian times, climate in Iberian Peninsula was varied but drier than in France, and specially so in the inner basins. However in Portugal and in Catalonia climate would he less different in comparison with that of the Rhône basin. Environmental evolution has been important: at Freiria and Azambujeira (middle level) there were mainly shallow lacustrine environments that received ressurgence waters from the nearby "Maciço calcário". Humid areas were closely surrounded by dense forests and these by broader and drier savanna or steppe areas. Still later, carbonate sedimentation ended. For some time there was still a river system with oxbows; humid areas probably were decreasing in favour of surrounding, rather dry environments. This study stressed the nced for revision of the geology of the region of Rio Maior and for a new geological mapping of that area. Environmental evolution has been important: at Freiria and Azambujeira (middle level) there were mainly shallow lacustrine environments that received ressurgence waters from the nearby "Maciço calcário".

Synthesis of the Piacenzian onshore record between the Aveiro and Setúbal parallels (Western portuguese margin)

Onshore, the Piacenzian of the Mondego and Lower Tagus Tertiary basins comprises siliciclastic sediments deposited in shallow marine to continental environments. The outcrops of the deposits are relatively widespread in the Aveiro and Setúbal region. A lithostratigraphic synthesis based on the correlation of geological sections, is presented for the two basins. In general, the Piacenzian sediments display a regressive sucession. The Late Tortonian-Zanclean (?) confined drainage pattern changed at the beginning of Piazencian, to fluvial systems draining to the Atlantic, and capturing the drainage of the inner parts of the Hesperic Meseta. The Piacenzian sedimentary sequence post-dates one of the uprising phases during Neogene compression, recorded by a strong regional unconformity. Some local active faulting - as in Lousa, Rio Maior and Senibal- Pinhal Novo - allowed the local thickening of the sedimentary record. Later compressive tectonism continues to generate reverse faulting and diapiric reactivation, affecting those sediments. Currently, the Piacenzian deposits culminates the marginal piedmonts, widely eroded by the Quaternary fluvial dissection.

Observations sedimentologiques sur les depots du Neogene post-nappe dans la region de Moulay Yacoub (NW de Fes- Maroc)

Proceedings of the I" R.C.A.N.S. Congress, Lisboa, October 1992

The detrital origin of the Moncorvo ordovician ironstones

The Moncorvo Ordovician ironstones in northeastern Portugal consist of iron ore sedimentary horizons frequently interbanded with psamites and quartzites. Ore reserves may probably exceed 1 000 million tonnes and this makes Moncorvo the largest iron ore deposit in the European Union. Compact poorly banded massive layers may exceed 90 meters in thickness which is quite an extraordinary feature for a Phanerozoic deposit. If the thickness of Precambrian deposits may reach a few hundred meters, the thickness of Phanerozoic deposits never exceed a maximum of 15 meters generally forming a number of comparatively thin layers confined to a particular member of a sedimentary sequence. A detailed microscopic analysis of the ores revealed that initially a compact magnetite/quartzite layer, detrital in character (the magnetite occasionally showing chromite cores), was deposited by entrapment in near shore lagoons where rivers debouched, rather than in the open sea. This stage was followed by oscilating and transgressive shore lines which gave rise to breaks in sedimentation in combined river delta and shallow water marine environment where detrital material and fine iron oxide and clay suspensions were deposited in fluctuating environments. These events gave rise to layers of both magnetite (martite) and specularite intergrown with quartz, silicates and phosphates. Textural and mineralogical studies show that the deposits consist of ferruginous clastic sediments and are not chemically deposited cherts. Field, geological and palaeontological evidence also supports a detrital origin, the facies being typical of zones rich in oxygen and close to the feeding continent. The uncommon huge development of Moncorvo was due to the fact that the deposits occur in restricted basins on a continental platform were clastic sediments were predominantly deposited. Not only morphologically but also chemically the deposits are more similar to Precambrian iron formations than to Phanerozoic ironstones.

High-resolution correlation of coastal cliff sections in the Lagos- Portimao Formation (Lower - Middle Miocene, central Algarve, Portugal)

This paper describes a high-resolution stratigraphic correlation scheme for the early to middle Miocene Lagos-Portimão Formation of central Algarve, southern Portugal. The Lagos Portimão-Formation of central Algarve is a 60 m thick package of horizontally bedded siliciclastics and carbonates. The bryozoan and mollusc dominated biofacies is typical of a shallow marine, warm-temperate climatic environment. We define four stratigraphic marker beds based on biofacies, lithology, and gamma-ray signatures. Marker bed 1 is a reddish shell bed composed predominantly of bivalve shells in various stages of fragmentation. Marker bed 2 is a fossiliferous sandstone / sandy rudstone characterized by bryozoan masses. Marker bed 3 is also a fossiliferous sandstone with abundant larger foraminifers and foliate bryozoans. Marker bed 4 is composed of three distinct layers; two fossiliferous sandstones with an intercalated shell bed. The upper sandstone unit displays thickets of the bryozoan Celleporaria palmate associated with the coral Culizia parasitica. This stratigraphic framework allows to correlate isolated outcrops within the stratigraphic context of the Lagos-Portimão Formation and to establish high resolution chronostratigraphic Sr-isotopic dating.

Miocene marine mammals from Portugal. Paleogeographical and paleoecological significance

Neogene marine mammals are still incompletely known in Portugal. However, a general overview of the geographic and stratigraphic distribution of marine mammal localities in the Miocene of Portugal is already possible. An attempt of correlation between the trends shown by these distributions and the horizontal and vertical environmental shifts is presented. In general, sirenians occur in deposits representing shallow, warm, low energy aquatic environments; while cetaceans are more frequent in more open, deep and temperate marine environments.

Uppermost Miocene Lamniform Selachians (Pisces) from the Alvalade basin (Portugal)

This paper deals with Lamniform teeth collected in deposits from the Esbarrondadoiro Formation, Alvalade Basin in Southern Portugal. The following genera were recognized: Carcharias, Pseudocarcharias, Alopias, Isurus and Carcharocles. The species Carcharias acutissima is by far the most predominant, all other taxa being rare or very rare. This situation points to neritic, tropical to subtropical, rather shallow waters not far away from the coast. This is corroborated by the rarity of the associated, mainly pelagic, taxa. The ratio between C. acutissima and the remaining Lamniforms as a whole is markedly uneven between Esbarrondadoiro and the localities of Santa Margarida and Vale de Zebro. This suggests quite different environmental conditions, a matter that will require a more thorough examination taking into account all palaeontologic and geologic data.

Mantle beneath the Gibraltar Arc from receiver functions

P and S receiver functions (PRF and SRF) from 19 seismograph stations in the Gibraltar Arc and the Iberian Massif reveal new details of the regional deep structure. Within the high-velocity mantle body below southern Spain the 660-km discontinuity is depressed by at least 20 km. The Ps phase from the 410-km discontinuity is missing at most stations in the Gibraltar Arc. A thin (similar to 50 km) low-S-velocity layer atop the 410-km discontinuity is found under the Atlantic margin. At most stations the S410p phase in the SRFs arrives 1.0-2.5 s earlier than predicted by IASP91 model, but, for the propagation paths through the upper mantle below southern Spain, the arrivals of S410p are delayed by up to +1.5 s. The early arrivals can be explained by elevated Vp/Vs ratio in the upper mantle or by a depressed 410-km discontinuity. The positive residuals are indicative of a low (similar to 1.7 versus similar to 1.8 in IASP91) Vp/Vs ratio. Previously, the low ratio was found in depleted lithosphere of Precambrian cratons. From simultaneous inversion of the PRFs and SRFs we recognize two types of the mantle: 'continental' and 'oceanic'. In the 'continental' upper mantle the S-wave velocity in the high-velocity lid is 4.4-4.5 km s(-1), the S-velocity contrast between the lid and the underlying mantle is often near the limit of resolution (0.1 km s(-1)), and the bottom of the lid is at a depth reaching 90 100 km. In the 'oceanic' domain, the S-wave velocities in the lid and the underlying mantle are typically 4.2-4.3 and similar to 4.0 km s(-1), respectively. The bottom of the lid is at a shallow depth (around 50 km), and at some locations the lid is replaced by a low S-wave velocity layer. The narrow S-N-oriented band of earthquakes at depths from 70 to 120 km in the Alboran Sea is in the 'continental' domain, near the boundary between the 'continental' and 'oceanic' domains, and the intermediate seismicity may be an effect of ongoing destruction of the continental lithosphere.

Ambient noise tomography of the East African Rift in Mozambique

Seismic ambient noise tomography is applied to central and southern Mozambique, located in the tip of the East African Rift (EAR). The deployment of MOZART seismic network, with a total of 30 broad-band stations continuously recording for 26 months, allowed us to carry out the first tomographic study of the crust under this region, which until now remained largely unexplored at this scale. From cross-correlations extracted from coherent noise we obtained Rayleigh wave group velocity dispersion curves for the period range 5–40 s. These dispersion relations were inverted to produce group velocity maps, and 1-D shear wave velocity profiles at selected points. High group velocities are observed at all periods on the eastern edge of the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe cratons, in agreement with the findings of previous studies. Further east, a pronounced slow anomaly is observed in central and southern Mozambique, where the rifting between southern Africa and Antarctica created a passive margin in the Mesozoic, and further rifting is currently happening as a result of the southward propagation of the EAR. In this study, we also addressed the question concerning the nature of the crust (continental versus oceanic) in the Mozambique Coastal Plains (MCP), still in debate. Our data do not support previous suggestions that the MCP are floored by oceanic crust since a shallow Moho could not be detected, and we discuss an alternative explanation for its ocean-like magnetic signature. Our velocity maps suggest that the crystalline basement of the Zimbabwe craton may extend further east well into Mozambique underneath the sediment cover, contrary to what is usually assumed, while further south the Kaapval craton passes into slow rifted crust at the Lebombo monocline as expected. The sharp passage from fast crust to slow crust on the northern part of the study area coincides with the seismically active NNE-SSW Urema rift, while further south the Mazenga graben adopts an N-S direction parallel to the eastern limit of the Kaapvaal craton. We conclude that these two extensional structures herald the southward continuation of the EAR, and infer a structural control of the transition between the two types of crust on the ongoing deformation.

What is the shape of an air bubble on a liquid surface?

We have calculated the equilibrium shape of the axially symmetric meniscus along which a spherical bubble contacts a flat liquid surface by analytically integrating the Young-Laplace equation in the presence of gravity, in the limit of large Bond numbers. This method has the advantage that it provides semianalytical expressions for key geometrical properties of the bubble in terms of the Bond number. Results are in good overall agreement with experimental data and are consistent with fully numerical (Surface Evolver) calculations. In particular, we are able to describe how the bubble shape changes from hemispherical, with a flat, shallow bottom, to lenticular, with a deeper, curved bottom, as the Bond number is decreased.

Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2. © Author(s) 2015.

Simulation of the velocity field in compound channel flow using different closure models

1st European IAHR Congress,6-4 May, Edinburg, Scotland