Planning most-likely paths from overhead imagery

This paper is about planning paths from overhead imagery, the novelty of which is taking explicit account of uncertainty in terrain classification and spatial variation in terrain cost. The image is first classified using a multi-class Gaussian Process Classifier which provides probabilities of class membership at each location in the image. The probability of class membership at a particular grid location is then combined with a terrain cost evaluated at that location using a spatial Gaussian process. The resulting cost function is, in turn, passed to a planner. This allows both the uncertainty in terrain classification and spatial variations in terrain costs to be incorporated into the planned path. Because the cost of traversing a grid cell is now a probability density rather than a single scalar value, we can produce not only the most-likely shortest path between points on the map, but also sample from the cost map to produce a distribution of paths between the points. Results are shown in the form of planned paths over aerial maps, these paths are shown to vary in response to local variations in terrain cost.

Three carrier ambiguity resolution : distance-independent performance demonstrated using semi-generated triple frequency GPS signals

In spite of significant research in the development of efficient algorithms for three carrier ambiguity resolution, full performance potential of the additional frequency signals cannot be demonstrated effectively without actual triple frequency data. In addition, all the proposed algorithms showed their difficulties in reliable resolution of the medium-lane and narrow-lane ambiguities in different long-range scenarios. In this contribution, we will investigate the effects of various distance-dependent biases, identifying the tropospheric delay to be the key limitation for long-range three carrier ambiguity resolution. In order to achieve reliable ambiguity resolution in regional networks with the inter-station distances of hundreds of kilometers, a new geometry-free and ionosphere-free model is proposed to fix the integer ambiguities of the medium-lane or narrow-lane observables over just several minutes without distance constraint. Finally, the semi-simulation method is introduced to generate the third frequency signals from dual-frequency GPS data and experimentally demonstrate the research findings of this paper.

Effect of soil parameter uncertainty on seismic response of buried segmented pipeline

Pipelines are important lifeline facilities spread over a large area and they generally encounter a range of seismic hazards and different soil conditions. The seismic response of a buried segmented pipe depends on various parameters such as the type of buried pipe material and joints, end restraint conditions, soil characteristics, burial depths, and earthquake ground motion, etc. This study highlights the effect of the variation of geotechnical properties of the surrounding soil on seismic response of a buried pipeline. The variations of the properties of the surrounding soil along the pipe are described by sampling them from predefined probability distribution. The soil-pipe interaction model is developed in OpenSEES. Nonlinear earthquake time-history analysis is performed to study the effect of soil parameters variability on the response of pipeline. Based on the results, it is found that uncertainty in soil parameters may result in significant response variability of the pipeline.

Automated cross-lingual link discovery in Wikipedia

At NTCIR-9, we participated in the cross-lingual link discovery (Crosslink) task. In this paper we describe our approaches to discovering Chinese, Japanese, and Korean (CJK) cross-lingual links for English documents in Wikipedia. Our experimental results show that a link mining approach that mines the existing link structure for anchor probabilities and relies on the “translation” using cross-lingual document name triangulation performs very well. The evaluation shows encouraging results for our system.

Separation of acoustic emission signals from small size multi-cylinder diesel engine

This paper presents techniques which can lead to diagnosis of faults in a small size multi-cylinder diesel engine. Preliminary analysis of the acoustic emission (AE) signals is outline, including time-frequency analysis and selection of optimum frequency band.The results of applying mean field independent component analysis (MFICA) to separate the AE root mean square (RMS) signals and the effects of changing parameter values are also outlined. The results on separation of RMS signals show thsi technique has the potential of increasing the probability to successfully identify the AE events associated with the various mechanical events within the combustion process of multi-cylinder diesel engines.

Where do they come from? Prevalence and characteristics of nascent entrepreneurs

This paper reports on a unique study of a large, random sample of business start-ups that were identified prior to the actual, commercial launch of the ventures. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, to present frequencies on the involvement of the Swedish population in the small business sector (particularly in start-ups of firms) and to compare these with estimates from Norway and the USA, which are based on studies using a similar research design. The authors also discuss the possible reasons for the differences that emerge between countries. Second, the characteristics of nascent entrepreneurs (i.e. individuals trying to start an independent business) are analysed and compared for sub-groups within the sample and with characteristics of business founders as they appear in theoretical accounts or retrospective empirical studies of surviving all firms. In order to get a representative sample from the working age population, respondents (n = 30,427) were randomly selected and interviewed by telephone. It was found that 2.0% of the Swedish population at the time of the interview were trying to start an independent business. Sweden had a significantly lower prevalence rate of nascent entrepreneurs compared to Norway and the USA. Nascent entrepreneurs were then compared to a control group of people not trying to start a business. The results confirmed findings from previous studies of business founders pointing to the importance of role models and the impression of self-employment obtained through these, employment status, age, education and experience. Marital status, the number of children in the household, and length of employment experience were unrelated to the probability of becoming a nascent entrepreneur. The gender of the respondent was the strongest distinguishing factor. Importantly, the results suggest that while one has a reasonably good understanding of the characteristics associated with men going into business for themselves, the type of variables investigated here have very limited ability to predict nascent entrepreneur status for women.

Bollywood Extras

"Bollywood Extras" has been described as a bit like Vladimir Nabokov's "Lolita" (1955) meets Nathanael West's "Day of the Locust" (1939). Unlike those two classics, this new novel by Dr D. Bruno Starrs is set in 21st Century India's Hindi-language film industry epicenter known as 'Bollywood', Mumbai's answer to America's 'Hollywood'. And there is another major difference: the story (i.e. the narrative interaction between an American Extras Casting Agent, 'Dr Arden Pyle', an under-age wannabe Bollywood starlet, 'Chandy', and the despicable but wealthy Indian man who stalks her, 'Ishmail'), is all staged against a backdrop of rabid religious terrorism. Written with the unique black comedic and literary flair Dr D. Bruno Starrs is renown for, this, his 3rd full-length novel, boldly captures the feel of Mumbai and the small-time players in its big-time film industry, with style, humor and originality. Tom Flood, winner of the Miles Franklin Literary Award and founder of Flood Manuscripts, said this of the novel's second last draft: "What is best about 'Bollywood Extras' will likely be its albatross in the sliced bread world of mainstream publishing. Three strengths that make the work what it is - the length, the style, the intellectual capital - will be three strikes against it when it comes to the money. While I delight in rich language and agile invention, I've given you the reasons the trade ('legit') presses won't take 'Bollywood Extras'. Do I think you should you change it? No. I like it. Why ruin an interesting work for money?" As a professional assessor, Flood did, of course, offer many suggestions and these were duly implemented, although the author steadfastly adhered to the style he had already cemented, thus not changing in anyway what Flood refers to as its three strengths. Dr Starrs knew (having accessed Flood's professional services previously) that a 'Thumbs Up' from the best manuscript assessor in the country meant that Bollywood Extras was ready to be birthed. So, here it is: Dr Starrs has delivered his 3rd baby and 'christened' it "Bollywood Extras"!

Quantum-like non-separability of concept combinations, emergent associates and abduction

Consider the concept combination ‘pet human’. In word association experiments, human subjects produce the associate ‘slave’ in relation to this combination. The striking aspect of this associate is that it is not produced as an associate of ‘pet’, or ‘human’ in isolation. In other words, the associate ‘slave’ seems to be emergent. Such emergent associations sometimes have a creative character and cognitive science is largely silent about how we produce them. Departing from a dimensional model of human conceptual space, this article will explore concept combinations, and will argue that emergent associations are a result of abductive reasoning within conceptual space, that is, below the symbolic level of cognition. A tensor-based approach is used to model concept combinations allowing such combinations to be formalized as interacting quantum systems. Free association norm data is used to motivate the underlying basis of the conceptual space. It is shown by analogy how some concept combinations may behave like quantum-entangled (non-separable) particles. Two methods of analysis were presented for empirically validating the presence of non-separable concept combinations in human cognition. One method is based on quantum theory and another based on comparing a joint (true theoretic) probability distribution with another distribution based on a separability assumption using a chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Although these methods were inconclusive in relation to an empirical study of bi-ambiguous concept combinations, avenues for further refinement of these methods are identified.

Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Non-compositional concepts and quantum tests

Compositionality is a frequently made assumption in linguistics, and yet many human subjects reveal highly non-compositional word associations when confronted with novel concept combinations. This article will show how a non-compositional account of concept combinations can be supplied by modelling them as interacting quantum systems.

Tests and Models of Non-compositional Concepts

The question of under what conditions conceptual representation is compositional remains debatable within cognitive science. This paper proposes a well developed mathematical apparatus for a probabilistic representation of concepts, drawing upon methods developed in quantum theory to propose a formal test that can determine whether a specific conceptual combination is compositional, or not. This test examines a joint probability distribution modeling the combination, asking whether or not it is factorizable. Empirical studies indicate that some combinations should be considered non-compositionally.

Prediction and measurement of multiuser MIMO-OFDM channel in rural Australia

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) has recently conducted a technology demonstration of a novel fixed wireless broadband access system in rural Australia. The system is based on multi user multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MU-MIMO-OFDM). It demonstrated an uplink of six simultaneous users with distances ranging from 10 m to 8.5 km from a central tower, achieving 20 bits s/Hz spectrum efficiency. This paper reports on the analysis of channel capacity and bit error probability simulation based on the measured MUMIMO-OFDM channels obtained during the demonstration, and their comparison with the results based on channels simulated by a novel geometric optics based channel model suitable for MU-MIMO OFDM in rural areas. Despite its simplicity, the model was found to predict channel capacity and bit error rate probability accurately for a typical MU-MIMO-OFDM deployment scenario.

A practical approach for identifying expected solution performance and robustness in operations research applications

A practical approach for identifying solution robustness is proposed for situations where parameters are uncertain. The approach is based upon the interpretation of a probability density function (pdf) and the definition of three parameters that describe how significant changes in the performance of a solution are deemed to be. The pdf is constructed by interpreting the results of simulations. A minimum number of simulations are achieved by updating the mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis of the sample using computationally efficient recursive equations. When these criterions have converged then no further simulations are needed. A case study involving several no-intermediate storage flow shop scheduling problems demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach.

A 2-h diagnostic protocol to assess patients with chest pain symptoms in the Asia-Pacific region (ASPECT): a prospective observational validation study

Background: Patients with chest pain contribute substantially to emergency department attendances, lengthy hospital stay, and inpatient admissions. A reliable, reproducible, and fast process to identify patients presenting with chest pain who have a low short-term risk of a major adverse cardiac event is needed to facilitate early discharge. We aimed to prospectively validate the safety of a predefined 2-h accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) to assess patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome. Methods: This observational study was undertaken in 14 emergency departments in nine countries in the Asia-Pacific region, in patients aged 18 years and older with at least 5 min of chest pain. The ADP included use of a structured pre-test probability scoring method (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction [TIMI] score), electrocardiograph, and point-of-care biomarker panel of troponin, creatine kinase MB, and myoglobin. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiac events within 30 days after initial presentation (including initial hospital attendance). This trial is registered with the Australia-New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12609000283279. Findings: 3582 consecutive patients were recruited and completed 30-day follow-up. 421 (11•8%) patients had a major adverse cardiac event. The ADP classified 352 (9•8%) patients as low risk and potentially suitable for early discharge. A major adverse cardiac event occurred in three (0•9%) of these patients, giving the ADP a sensitivity of 99•3% (95% CI 97•9–99•8), a negative predictive value of 99•1% (97•3–99•8), and a specificity of 11•0% (10•0–12•2). Interpretation: This novel ADP identifies patients at very low risk of a short-term major adverse cardiac event who might be suitable for early discharge. Such an approach could be used to decrease the overall observation periods and admissions for chest pain. The components needed for the implementation of this strategy are widely available. The ADP has the potential to affect health-service delivery worldwide.

Monte Carlo simulations of dynamic radiotherapy treatments

The effects of tumour motion during radiation therapy delivery have been widely investigated. Motion effects have become increasingly important with the introduction of dynamic radiotherapy delivery modalities such as enhanced dynamic wedges (EDWs) and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) where a dynamically collimated radiation beam is delivered to the moving target, resulting in dose blurring and interplay effects which are a consequence of the combined tumor and beam motion. Prior to this work, reported studies on the EDW based interplay effects have been restricted to the use of experimental methods for assessing single-field non-fractionated treatments. In this work, the interplay effects have been investigated for EDW treatments. Single and multiple field treatments have been studied using experimental and Monte Carlo (MC) methods. Initially this work experimentally studies interplay effects for single-field non-fractionated EDW treatments, using radiation dosimetry systems placed on a sinusoidaly moving platform. A number of wedge angles (60º, 45º and 15º), field sizes (20 × 20, 10 × 10 and 5 × 5 cm2), amplitudes (10-40 mm in step of 10 mm) and periods (2 s, 3 s, 4.5 s and 6 s) of tumor motion are analysed (using gamma analysis) for parallel and perpendicular motions (where the tumor and jaw motions are either parallel or perpendicular to each other). For parallel motion it was found that both the amplitude and period of tumor motion affect the interplay, this becomes more prominent where the collimator tumor speeds become identical. For perpendicular motion the amplitude of tumor motion is the dominant factor where as varying the period of tumor motion has no observable effect on the dose distribution. The wedge angle results suggest that the use of a large wedge angle generates greater dose variation for both parallel and perpendicular motions. The use of small field size with a large tumor motion results in the loss of wedged dose distribution for both parallel and perpendicular motion. From these single field measurements a motion amplitude and period have been identified which show the poorest agreement between the target motion and dynamic delivery and these are used as the „worst case motion parameters.. The experimental work is then extended to multiple-field fractionated treatments. Here a number of pre-existing, multiple–field, wedged lung plans are delivered to the radiation dosimetry systems, employing the worst case motion parameters. Moreover a four field EDW lung plan (using a 4D CT data set) is delivered to the IMRT quality control phantom with dummy tumor insert over four fractions using the worst case parameters i.e. 40 mm amplitude and 6 s period values. The analysis of the film doses using gamma analysis at 3%-3mm indicate the non averaging of the interplay effects for this particular study with a gamma pass rate of 49%. To enable Monte Carlo modelling of the problem, the DYNJAWS component module (CM) of the BEAMnrc user code is validated and automated. DYNJAWS has been recently introduced to model the dynamic wedges. DYNJAWS is therefore commissioned for 6 MV and 10 MV photon energies. It is shown that this CM can accurately model the EDWs for a number of wedge angles and field sizes. The dynamic and step and shoot modes of the CM are compared for their accuracy in modelling the EDW. It is shown that dynamic mode is more accurate. An automation of the DYNJAWS specific input file has been carried out. This file specifies the probability of selection of a subfield and the respective jaw coordinates. This automation simplifies the generation of the BEAMnrc input files for DYNJAWS. The DYNJAWS commissioned model is then used to study multiple field EDW treatments using MC methods. The 4D CT data of an IMRT phantom with the dummy tumor is used to produce a set of Monte Carlo simulation phantoms, onto which the delivery of single field and multiple field EDW treatments is simulated. A number of static and motion multiple field EDW plans have been simulated. The comparison of dose volume histograms (DVHs) and gamma volume histograms (GVHs) for four field EDW treatments (where the collimator and patient motion is in the same direction) using small (15º) and large wedge angles (60º) indicates a greater mismatch between the static and motion cases for the large wedge angle. Finally, to use gel dosimetry as a validation tool, a new technique called the „zero-scan method. is developed for reading the gel dosimeters with x-ray computed tomography (CT). It has been shown that multiple scans of a gel dosimeter (in this case 360 scans) can be used to reconstruct a zero scan image. This zero scan image has a similar precision to an image obtained by averaging the CT images, without the additional dose delivered by the CT scans. In this investigation the interplay effects have been studied for single and multiple field fractionated EDW treatments using experimental and Monte Carlo methods. For using the Monte Carlo methods the DYNJAWS component module of the BEAMnrc code has been validated and automated and further used to study the interplay for multiple field EDW treatments. Zero-scan method, a new gel dosimetry readout technique has been developed for reading the gel images using x-ray CT without losing the precision and accuracy.