Perspectives on the Future of Public Private Partnership in the UK

During the past two decades the UK has played a leading position in the development and application of Public Private Partnership (PPP) based infrastructure procurement through its Private Finance Initiative model. This model had been developed during the last years of the Major Government and expanded during the early years of the Blair Government. The banking and economic crisis of 2007-09 has created major challenges to the use of PPP in the UK, making the sustainability of past levels of PPP investment and the future direction of PPP based infrastructure procurement in that country uncertain. This chapter summarises key developments in UK PPP up to the crisis; reviews the economic issues that have led up to the crisis; discusses the immediate impact of the crisis on the UK PFI and PPP market together with the transition arrangements that were put into to place by the Brown government; and, lastly, looks at recent initiatives taken by Cameron’s Conservative-Liberal Coalition Government under the designation of Private Finance 2 (PF2).

An Overview of Public Private Partnership

In many developed and developing countries there has been a move toward an increased reliance on Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) for infrastructure development. This involves an engagement with, or participation of, private companies and the public sector in the financing and provision of infrastructure. In most countries these PPP arrangements have been aimed at overcoming broad public sector constraints in relation to either a lack of public capital; and/or a lack of public sector capacity, resources and specialized expertise to develop, manage, and operate infrastructure assets.
In a number of countries Public Private Partnerships are now commonly used to accelerate economic growth, development and infrastructure delivery and to achieve quality service delivery and good governance. The spectrum of nature and types of public private partnerships (PPPs) are vast, making a precise and complete definition of a PPP difficult. However, significant developments in the use of PPP in many countries have made it increasingly important to understand these practices, as well as to unveil any underlying common principles and problems and to capture and develop a body of good practices, where such can be achieved.

Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes

It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900-2014) records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995), whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95) and driest summer (1995) has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ∼7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ∼8 and ∼10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society.

Trends in Approval Times for Genetically Engineered Crops in the United States and the European Union

Genetically engineered (GE) crops are subject to regulatory oversight to ensure their safety for humans and the environment. Their approval in the European Union (EU) starts with an application in a given Member State followed by a scientific step (risk assessment), and ends with a political decision-making step (risk management); and in the United States (US) it starts with a scientific (field trial) step and ends with a ‘bureaucratic’ decision-making step. We investigated trends for the time taken for these steps and the overall time taken for approving GE crops in the US and the EU (traders in these commodities). Results show that from 1996-2015 the overall time trend for approval in the EU decreased and then flattened off, with an overall mean completion-time of 1,763 days. In the US in 1998 there was a break in the trend of the overall approval time: Initially, from 1988 until 1997 the trend decreased with a mean approval time of 1,321 days; from 1998-2015, the trend almost stagnated with a mean approval time of 2,467 days.

The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.

Pine wilt disease: global issues, trade and economic impact

Pine wilt disease (PWD) is perhaps the most serious threat to pine forests worldwide. Since it´s discovery in the early XXth century by Japanese forest researchers, and the relationship with its causative agent, the pinewood nematode (PWN) Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, in the 1970s, PWD has wreaked havoc wherever it appears. Firstly in the Far East (Japan, China and Korea) and now, more recently in 1999, in the EU (Portugal). The forest sector in Portugal plays a major role in the Portuguese economy with a 12% contribution to the industrial gross domestic product, 3.2% of the gross domestic product, 10% of foreign trade and 5% of national employment. Maritime pine (Pinus pinaster) is one of the most important pine productions, and industrial activity, such as the production of wood and resin, as well as coastal protection associated with sand dunes. Also, stone pine (Pinus pinea) plays an important role in the economy with a share derived from the exports of high-quality pineon seed. Thus, the tremendous economical and ecological impact of the introduction of a pest and pathogen such as the PWN, although as far as is known, the only species susceptible to the nematode is maritime pine. Immediately following detection, the research team involved (Univ. Évora, INIAP) informed the national plant quarantine and forest authorities, which relayed the information to Brussels and the appropriate EU authorities. A task force (GANP), followed by a national program (PROLUNP) was established. Since then, national surveys have been taking place, involving MADRP (Ministry of Agriculture), the University of Évora and several private corporations (e.g. UNAC). Forest growers in the area are particularly interested and involved since the area owned by the growers organizations totals 700 000 ha, largely affected by PWD. Detection of the disease has led to serious consequences and restrictions regarding exploration and commercialization of wood. A precautionary phytosanitary strip, 3 km-wide, has been recently (2007) established surrounding the affected area. The Portuguese government, through its national program PROLUNP, has been deeply involved since 1999, and in conjunction with the EU (Permanent Phytosanitary Committee, and FVO) and committed to controlling this nematode and the potential spread to the rest of the country and to the rest of the EU. The global impact of the presence of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus or the threat of its introduction and the resulting pine wilt disease in forested areas in different parts of the world is of increasing concern economically. The concern is exacerbated by the prevailing debate on climate change and the putative impact this could have on the vulnerability of the world’s pine forests to this disease. The scientific and regulatory approach taken in different jurisdictions to the threat of pine wilt disease varies from country to country depending on the perceived vulnerability of their pine forests to the disease and/or to the economic cost due to lost trade in wood products. Much of the research surrounding pine wilt disease has been located in the northern hemisphere, especially in southern Europe and in the warmer, coastal, Asian countries. However, there is an increased focus on this problem also in those countries in the southern hemisphere where plantations of susceptible pine have been established over the years. The forestry sector in Australia and New Zealand are on “high alert” for this disease and are practicing strict quarantine procedures at all ports of entry for wood products. As well, there is heightened awareness, as there is worldwide, for the need to monitor wood packaging materials for all imported goods. In carrying out the necessary monitoring and assessment of products for B. xylophilus and its vectors substantial costs are incurred especially when decisions have to be made rapidly and regardless of whether the outcome is positive or negative. Australia’s response recently to the appearance of some dying pines in a plantation illustrated the high sensitivity of some countries to this disease. Some $200,000 was spent on the assessment in order to save a potential loss of millions of dollars to the disease. This rapid, co-ordinated response to the report was for naught, because once identified it was found not to be B. xylophilus. This illustrates the particular importance of taking the responsibility at all levels of management to secure the site and the need of a rapid, reliable diagnostic method for small nematode samples for use in the field. Australia is particularly concerned about the vulnerability of its 1million hectares of planted forests, 80% of which are Pinus species, to attack from incursions of one or more species of the insect vector. Monochamus alternatus incursions in wood pallets have been reported from Brisbane, Queensland. The climate of this part of Australia is such that the Pinus plantations are particularly vulnerable to the potential outcome of such incursions, and the state of Queensland is developing a risk management strategy and a proactive breeding programme in response to this putative threat. New Zealand has 1.6 million hectares of planted forests and 89% of the commercial forest is Pinus radiata. Although the climate where these forests are located tends to be somewhat cooler than that in Australia the potential for establishment and development of the disease in that country is believed to be high. The passage alone of 200,000 m³/year of wood packaging through New Zealand ports is itself sufficient to require response. The potential incursion of insect vectors of pinewood nematode through the port system is regarded as high and is monitored carefully. The enormous expansion of global trade and the continued use of unprocessed/inadequately-processed wood for packaging purposes is a challenge for all trading nations as such wood packaging material often harbours disease or pest species. The extent of this problem is readily illustrated by the expanding economies and exports of countries in south-east Asia. China. Japan and Korea have significant areas of forestland infested with B. xylophilus. These countries too are among the largest exporting countries of manufactured goods. Despite the attempts of authorities to ensure that only properly treated wood is used in the crating and packaging of goods B. xylophilus and/or its insect vector infested materials is being recorded at ports worldwide. This reminds us, therefore, of the ease with which this nematode pest can gain access to forest lands in new geographic locations through inappropriate use, treatment or monitoring of wood products. It especially highlights the necessity to find an alternative to using low-grade lumber for packaging purposes. Lest we should believe that all wood products are always carriers of B. xylophilus and its vectors, it should be remembered that international trade of all kinds has occurred for thousands of years and that lumber-born pests and diseases do not have worldwide distribution. Other physico-biological factors have a significant role in the occurrence, establishment and sustainability of a disease. The question is often raised as to why the whole of southern Europe doesn’t already have B. xylophilus and pine wilt disease. European countries have traded with countries that are infested with B. xylophilus for hundreds of years. Turkey is an example of a country that appears to be highly vulnerable to pine wilt disease due to its extensive forests in the warm, southern region where the vector, Monochamus galloprovincialis, occurs. However, there is no record of the presence of B. xylophilus occurring there despite the importation of substantial quantities of wood from several countries In many respects, Portugal illustrates both the challenge and the dilemma. In recent times B. xylophilus was discovered there in the warm coastal region. The research, administrative and quarantine authorities responded rapidly and B. xylophilus appears to have been confined to the region in which it was found. The rapid response would seem to have “saved the day” for Portugal. Nevertheless, it raises again the long-standing questions, how long had B. xylophilus been in Portugal before it was found? If Lisbon was the port of entry, which seems very likely, why had B. xylophilus not entered Lisbon many years earlier and established populations and the pine wilt disease? Will the infestation in Portugal be sustainable and will it spread or will it die out within a few years? We still do not have sufficient understanding of the biology of this pest to know the answers to these questions.

The Day Roads Became Rivers: A GIS-Based Assessment of Flash Floods in Worcester

In the last 4 years Worcester, UK has been hit by several intense convective rainstorms, which caused flash floods outside of existing surface drainage networks. This paper addresses two questions related to such events: Firstly to what extent can the occurrence of flash flood flow accumulation can be determined using only commonly available data and tools, assuming the rainfall events caused mainly surface runoff due to their tropical intensity and the relatively impermeable urban catchment surface? Secondly, are the flood in-cidents in Worcester aggravated by roads serving as preferential flow paths under these conditions? The as-sessment results indicated that roads do not have an influence on the flow path of flash flood rainfall in Worcester. Flow accumulation calculated with a 10m DEM, corresponds well with reported flood incidents. This basic assessment method can be used to inform the implementation of non structural flood mitigation and public awareness.

Essays on Applications of the Factor Model

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Role Ambiguity and Perceived Organizational Politics in Wolf Recovery: Washington State Wildlife Agency Personnel Perspectives

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2015-12

Multivariate Moments Expansion Density: Application of the Dynamic Equicorrelation Model

In this study, we propose a new semi-nonparametric (SNP) density model for describing the density of portfolio returns. This distribution, which we refer to as the multivariate moments expansion (MME), admits any non-Gaussian (multivariate) distribution as its basis because it is specified directly in terms of the basis density’s moments. To obtain the expansion of the Gaussian density, the MME is a reformulation of the multivariate Gram-Charlier (MGC), but the MME is much simpler and tractable than the MGC when positive transformations are used to produce well-defined densities. As an empirical application, we extend the dynamic conditional equicorrelation (DECO) model to an SNP framework using the MME. The resulting model is parameterized in a feasible manner to admit two-stage consistent estimation and it represents the DECO as well as the salient non-Gaussian features of portfolio return distributions. The in- and out-of-sample performance of a MME-DECO model of a portfolio of 10 assets demonstrate that it can be a useful tool for risk management purposes.

Abordagem ao risco de crédito no âmbito do acordo de Basileia III em Portugal

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

O Processo de gestão de risco nas organizações

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientada por Mestre Carlos Manuel Antunes Mendes

Gestão de risco: caso da Sonae Indústria

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientador: Mestre Carlos Manuel Antunes Mendes

A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.