PCV13 Perceptions of health during pregnancy increase the risk of cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prospective association between perception of health during pregnancy and cardiovascular risk factor of mothers 21 years after the index pregnancy. METHODS: Data used were from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a community- based prospective birth ohort study begun in Brisbane, Australia, in 1983. Logistic regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Data were available for 3692 women. Women who perceived themselves as not having a straight forward pregnancy had twice the odds (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.8) of being diagnosed with heart disease 21 years after the indexpregnancyascomparedtowomenwith a straight forward pregnancy. Apart from that, women who had complications (other than serious pregnancy complications) during the pregnancy were also at30%increased odds (adjustedOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6) of having hypertension 21 years later. CONCLUSIONS: As a whole, our study suggests that pregnant women who perceived that they had complications and did not have a straight forward pregnancy are likely to experience poorer cardiovascular outcomes 21 years after the pregnancy.

Re-framing infrastructure investment decision-making processes : a preliminary scoping study for urban flood risk management in Jakarta, Indonesia

Jakarta, Indonesia’s chronic housing shortage poses multiple challenges for contemporary policy-makers. While it may be in the city’s interest to increase the availability of housing, there is limited land to do so. Market pressures, in tandem with government’s desire for housing availability, demand consideration of even marginal lands, such as those within floodplains, for development. Increasingly, planning for a flood resilient Jakarta is complicated by a number of factors, including: the city is highly urbanized and land use data is limited; flood management is technically complex, creating potential barriers to engagement for both decision-makers and the public; inherent uncertainty exists throughout modelling efforts, central to management; and risk and liability for infrastructure investments is unclear. These obstacles require localized watershed-level participatory planning to address risks of flooding where possible and reduce the likelihood that informal settlements occur in areas of extreme risk. This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for determination of an effective participatory planning method to encourage more resilient development. First, the scoping study provides background relevant to the challenges faced in planning for contemporary Jakarta. Second, the study examines the current use of decision-support tools, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in planning for Jakarta. Existing capacity in the use of GIS allows for consideration of the use of an emerging method of community consultation - Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) support systems infused with geospatial information - to aid in engagement with the public and improve decision-making outcomes. While these methods have been used in Australia to promote stakeholder engagement in urban intensification, the planned research will be an early introduction of the method to Indonesia. As a consequence of this intervention, it is expected that planning activities will result in a more resilient city, capable of engaging with disaster risk management in a more effective manner.

Letter : anxiety score as a risk factor for radial artery vasospasm during radial interventions : a pilot study

I read with interest the article in Angiology that determined the role of anxiety level on radial artery spasm during transradial coronary angiography.1 As the importance of conducting more randomised controlled trials using anxiolytics to define the relation between anxiety and vasospasm was noted by the authors, I offer the following insights for investigators to consider when conducting such research. While previous research has already identified that moderate procedural sedation and opioid analgesia reduces the incidence of vasospasm,2 the identification of risk factors in the present study is hypothesis generating as to how outcomes might be even further improved. It is possible that selectively applying either even more intensive sedation and analgesia or complementary non-pharmacological stress-reducing therapies, such as music therapy or visualisation and attentive behaviour, to patients ‘at-risk’ of vasospasm (women and those with high levels of anxiety prior to the procedure) might lead to even better patient outcomes...

A data mining driven crash risk profiling method for road asset management

This thesis takes a new data mining approach for analyzing road/crash data by developing models for the whole road network and generating a crash risk profile. Roads with an elevated crash risk due to road surface friction deficit are identified. The regression tree model, predicting road segment crash rate, is applied in a novel deployment coined regression tree extrapolation that produces a skid resistance/crash rate curve. Using extrapolation allows the method to be applied across the network and cope with the high proportion of missing road surface friction values. This risk profiling method can be applied in other domains.

A multi-objective optimization approach for coordinating available transfer capability with risk control

In the electricity market environment, coordination of system reliability and economics of a power system is of great significance in determining the available transfer capability (ATC). In addition, the risks associated with uncertainties should be properly addressed in the ATC determination process for risk-benefit maximization. Against this background, it is necessary that the ATC be optimally allocated and utilized within relative security constraints. First of all, the non-sequential Monte Carlo stimulation is employed to derive the probability density distribution of ATC of designated areas incorporating uncertainty factors. Second, on the basis of that, a multi-objective optimization model is formulated to determine the multi-area ATC so as to maximize the risk-benefits. Then, the solution to the developed model is achieved by the fast non-dominated sorting (NSGA-II) algorithm, which could decrease the risk caused by uncertainties while coordinating the ATCs of different areas. Finally, the IEEE 118-bus test system is served for demonstrating the essential features of the developed model and employed algorithm.

Reducing the Risk of Alcohol and Other Drugs in Construction : An Australian Assessment

There is increasing concern about the impact of employees’ alcohol and other drug (AOD) consumption on workplace safety, particularly within the construction industry. No known study has scientifically evaluated the relationship between the use of drugs and alcohol and safety impacts in construction, and there has been only limited adoption of nationally coordinated strategies, supported by employers and employees to render it socially unacceptable to arrive at a construction workplace with impaired judgment from AODs. This research aims to scientifically evaluate the use of AODs within the Australian construction industry in order to reduce the potential resulting safety and performance impacts and engender a cultural change in the workforce. Using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT), the study will adopt both quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate the extent of general AOD use in the industry. Results indicate that a proportion of the construction sector may be at risk of hazardous alcohol consumption. A total of 286 respondents (58%) scored above the cut-off score for risky alcohol use with 43 respondents (15%) scoring in the significantly ‘at risk’ category. Other drug use was also identified as a major issue that must be addressed. Results support the need for evidence-based, preventative educational initiatives that are tailored specifically to the construction industry.

A data mining driven risk profiling method for road asset management

Road surface skid resistance has been shown to have a strong relationship to road crash risk, however, applying the current method of using investigatory levels to identify crash prone roads is problematic as they may fail in identifying risky roads outside of the norm. The proposed method analyses a complex and formerly impenetrable volume of data from roads and crashes using data mining. This method rapidly identifies roads with elevated crash-rate, potentially due to skid resistance deficit, for investigation. A hypothetical skid resistance/crash risk curve is developed for each road segment, driven by the model deployed in a novel regression tree extrapolation method. The method potentially solves the problem of missing skid resistance values which occurs during network-wide crash analysis, and allows risk assessment of the major proportion of roads without skid resistance values.

Development and use of risk adjusted statistical process control tools for the monitoring and improvement of clinical outcomes in interventional cardiology

This thesis explored the development of statistical methods to support the monitoring and improvement in quality of treatment delivered to patients undergoing coronary angioplasty procedures. To achieve this goal, a suite of outcome measures was identified to characterise performance of the service, statistical tools were developed to monitor the various indicators and measures to strengthen governance processes were implemented and validated. Although this work focused on pursuit of these aims in the context of a an angioplasty service located at a single clinical site, development of the tools and techniques was undertaken mindful of the potential application to other clinical specialties and a wider, potentially national, scope.

Mothers vs fathers as learner driver supervisors : time commitment, driving activities and perceptions of risk

The learner licence, within a graduated driver licensing system, provides new drivers with the opportunity to learn to drive under the supervision of a more experienced driver. The Queensland graduated driver licensing system requires learner drivers to record a minimum of 100 logbook hours of supervised practice with the support of parents appearing critical to ensure that this is achieved. This paper examines differences between mothers and fathers who supervise learner drivers. Mothers and fathers from Queensland who had recently supervised their child while they learnt to drive completed an internet survey about their experiences. It appears that one strategy that parents use to provide practice hours is for the child to drive themselves or their parents to or from activities that they would have attended anyway in addition to undertaking special trips in the car for the purposes of practising. The results suggest that mothers, when compared with fathers, consider driving at all stages of licensure riskier and that mothers provided more hours of supervision than fathers. However, despite this, there are limited differences between how frequently mothers and fathers provide different driving experiences such as deliberately practising in suburban areas or with passengers in the car. This research fills a gap in the literature by providing important information about the way in which parents supervise their children while they are driving on a learner licence as well as identifying some of the differences and similarities between mothers and fathers.

What are the offence and offender risk factors for Indigenous repeat drink drivers in Queensland?

In Australia and internationally, there is scant information about Indigenous repeat drink drivers. The aim was to identify the risk factors associated with repeat offending. De-identified data on drink driving convictions by offenders identifying as Indigenous in Queensland between 2006 and 2010 were examined. A range of univariate analyses were used to compare first time and repeat offenders on gender, age, court location and region (based on the accessibility/remoteness index of Australia), blood alcohol concentration and sentencing severity. Multivariate logistic regression adjusted for confounding variables. Convictions for repeat offenders were more likely from locations other than ‘major cities’ with the association strongest for courts in the ‘very remote’ region (OR=2.75, 2.06-3.76, p<.001). Indigenous offenders 40 years or older were found to be at reduced risk in comparison to offenders aged 15-24 years (OR=0.68, 0.54-0.86, p=0.01). After controlling for confounding factors, gender, sentencing severity and blood alcohol concentration levels were not significantly associated with recidivism. The association of recidivism and remoteness is consistent with higher rates of alcohol-related transport accidents involving Indigenous Australians in isolated areas. This study provides a platform for future research and allows for early attempts to address the need for intervention to reduce Indigenous drink driving recidivism.

Modelling risk at low exposure railway level crossings : supporting an argument for low-cost level crossing warning devices with lower levels of safety integrity

This paper describes a risk model for estimating the likelihood of collisions at low-exposure railway level crossings, demonstrating the effect that differences in safety integrity can have on the likelihood of a collision. The model facilitates the comparison of safety benefits between level crossings with passive controls (stop or give-way signs) and level crossings that have been hypothetically upgraded with conventional or low-cost warning devices. The scenario presented illustrates how treatment of a cross-section of level crossings with low cost devices can provide a greater safety benefit compared to treatment with conventional warning devices for the same budget.

A meta-analysis of pigmentary characteristics, sun sensitivity, freckling and melanocytic nevi and risk of basal cell carcinoma of the skin

Objective: To calculate pooled risk estimates of the association between pigmentary characteristics and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) of the skin. Methods: We searched three electronic databases and reviewed the reference lists of the retrieved articles until July 2012 to identify eligible epidemiologic studies. Eligible studies were those published in between 1965 and July 2012 that permitted quantitative assessment of the association between histologically-confirmed BCC and any of the following characteristics: hair colour, eye colour, skin colour, skin phototype, tanning and burning ability, and presence of freckling or melanocytic nevi. We included 29 studies from 2236 initially identified. We calculated summary odds ratios (ORs) using weighted averages of the log OR, using random effects models. Results: We found strongest associations with red hair (OR 2.02; 95% CI: 1.68, 2.44), fair skin colour (OR 2.11; 95% CI: 1.56, 2.86), and having skin that burns and never tans (OR 2.03; 95% CI: 1.73, 2.38). All other factors had weaker but positive associations with BCC, with the exception of freckling of the face in adulthood which showed no association. Conclusions: Although most studies report risk estimates that are in the same direction, there is significant heterogeneity in the size of the estimates. The associations were quite modest and remarkably similar, with ORs between about 1.5 and 2.5 for the highest risk level for each factor. Given the public health impact of BCC, this meta-analysis will make a valuable contribution to our understanding of BCC.

Fraud risk and the visibility of carbon

In recent years, carbon has been increasingly rendered ‘visible’ both discursively and through political processes that have imbued it with economic value. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been constructed as social and environmental costs and their reduction or avoidance as social and economic gain. The ‘marketisation’ of carbon, which has been facilitated through various compliance schemes such as the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the Kyoto Protocol, the proposed Australian Emissions Reduction Scheme and through the voluntary carbon credit market, have attempted to bring carbon into the ‘foreground’ as an economic liability and/or opportunity. Accompanying the increasing economic visibility of carbon are reports of frauds and scams – the ‘gaming of carbon markets’(Chan 2010). As Lohmann (2010: 21) points out, ‘what are conventionally classed as scams or frauds are an inevitable feature of carbon offset markets, not something that could be eliminated by regulation targeting the specific businesses or state agencies involved’. This paper critiques the disparate discourses of fraud risk in carbon markets and examines cases of fraud within emerging landscapes of green criminology.