820 resultados para Risk assessment Mathematical models


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Approximately 45,000 individuals are hospitalized annually for burn treatment. Rehabilitation after hospitalization can offer a significant improvement in functional outcomes. Very little is known nationally about rehabilitation for burns, and practices may vary substantially depending on the region based on observed Medicare post-hospitalization spending amounts. This study was designed to measure variation in rehabilitation utilization by state of hospitalization for patients hospitalized with burn injury. This retrospective cohort study used nationally collected data over a 10-year period (2001 to 2010), from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases (SIDs). Patients hospitalized for burn injury (n = 57,968) were identified by ICD-9-CM codes and were examined to see specifically if they were discharged immediately to inpatient rehabilitation after hospitalization (primary endpoint). Both unadjusted and adjusted likelihoods were calculated for each state taking into account the effects of age, insurance status, hospitalization at a burn center, and extent of burn injury by TBSA. The relative risk of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation varied by as much as 6-fold among different states. Higher TBSA, having health insurance, higher age, and burn center hospitalization all increased the likelihood of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation following acute care hospitalization. There was significant variation between states in inpatient rehabilitation utilization after adjusting for variables known to affect each outcome. Future efforts should be focused on identifying the cause of this state-to-state variation, its relationship to patient outcome, and standardizing treatment across the United States.

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OBJECTIVE: To ascertain the degree of variation, by state of hospitalization, in outcomes associated with traumatic brain injury (TBI) in a pediatric population. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of pediatric patients admitted to a hospital with a TBI. SETTING: Hospitals from states in the United States that voluntarily participate in the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. PARTICIPANTS: Pediatric (age ≤ 19 y) patients hospitalized for TBI (N=71,476) in the United States during 2001, 2004, 2007, and 2010. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was proportion of patients discharged to rehabilitation after an acute care hospitalization among alive discharges. The secondary outcome was inpatient mortality. RESULTS: The relative risk of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation varied by as much as 3-fold among the states, and the relative risk of inpatient mortality varied by as much as nearly 2-fold. In the United States, approximately 1981 patients could be discharged to inpatient rehabilitation care if the observed variation in outcomes was eliminated. CONCLUSIONS: There was significant variation between states in both rehabilitation discharge and inpatient mortality after adjusting for variables known to affect each outcome. Future efforts should be focused on identifying the cause of this state-to-state variation, its relationship to patient outcome, and standardizing treatment across the United States.

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BACKGROUND: Little is known about the constraints of optimizing health care for prostate cancer survivors in Alaska primary care. OBJECTIVE: To describe the experiences and attitudes of primary care providers within the Alaska Tribal Health System (ATHS) regarding the care of prostate cancer survivors. DESIGN: In late October 2011, we emailed a 22-item electronic survey to 268 ATHS primary care providers regarding the frequency of Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) monitoring for a hypothetical prostate cancer survivor; who should be responsible for the patient's life-long prostate cancer surveillance; who should support the patient's emotional and medical needs as a survivor; and providers' level of comfort addressing recurrence monitoring, erectile dysfunction, urinary incontinence, androgen deprivation therapy, and emotional needs. We used simple logistic regression to examine the association between provider characteristics and their responses to the survivorship survey items. RESULTS: Of 221 individuals who were successfully contacted, a total of 114 responded (52% response rate). Most ATHS providers indicated they would order a PSA test every 12 months (69%) and believed that, ideally, the hypothetical patient's primary care provider should be responsible for his life-long prostate cancer surveillance (60%). Most providers reported feeling either "moderately" or "very" comfortable addressing topics such as prostate cancer recurrence (59%), erectile dysfunction (64%), urinary incontinence (63%), and emotional needs (61%) with prostate cancer survivors. These results varied somewhat by provider characteristics including female sex, years in practice, and the number of prostate cancer survivors seen in their practice. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that most primary care providers in Alaska are poised to assume the care of prostate cancer survivors locally. However, we also found that large minorities of providers do not feel confident in their ability to manage common issues in prostate cancer survivorship, implying that continued access to specialists with more expert knowledge would be beneficial.

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BACKGROUND: In patients with myelomeningocele (MMC), a high number of fractures occur in the paralyzed extremities, affecting mobility and independence. The aims of this retrospective cross-sectional study are to determine the frequency of fractures in our patient cohort and to identify trends and risk factors relevant for such fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between March 1988 and June 2005, 862 patients with MMC were treated at our hospital. The medical records, surgery reports, and X-rays from these patients were evaluated. RESULTS: During the study period, 11% of the patients (n = 92) suffered one or more fractures. Risk analysis showed that patients with MMC and thoracic-level paralysis had a sixfold higher risk of fracture compared with those with sacral-level paralysis. Femoral-neck z-scores measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) differed significantly according to the level of neurological impairment, with lower z-scores in children with a higher level of lesion. Furthermore, the rate of epiphyseal separation increased noticeably after cast immobilization. Mainly patients who could walk relatively well were affected. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with thoracic-level paralysis represent a group with high fracture risk. According to these results, fracture and epiphyseal injury in patients with MMC should be treated by plaster immobilization. The duration of immobilization should be kept to a minimum (<4 weeks) because of increased risk of secondary fractures. Alternatively, patients with refractures can be treated by surgery, when nonoperative treatment has failed.

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Recent investigation has identified association of IL-12p40 blood levels with melanoma recurrence and patient survival. No studies have investigated associations of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with melanoma patient IL-12p40 blood levels or their potential contributions to melanoma susceptibility or patient outcome. In the current study, 818,237 SNPs were available for 1,804 melanoma cases and 1,026 controls. IL-12p40 blood levels were assessed among 573 cases (discovery), 249 cases (case validation), and 299 controls (control validation). SNPs were evaluated for association with log[IL-12p40] levels in the discovery data set and replicated in two validation data sets, and significant SNPs were assessed for association with melanoma susceptibility and patient outcomes. The most significant SNP associated with log[IL-12p40] was in the IL-12B gene region (rs6897260, combined P=9.26 × 10(-38)); this single variant explained 13.1% of variability in log[IL-12p40]. The most significant SNP in EBF1 was rs6895454 (combined P=2.24 × 10(-9)). A marker in IL12B was associated with melanoma susceptibility (rs3213119, multivariate P=0.0499; OR=1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.24), whereas a marker in EBF1 was associated with melanoma-specific survival in advanced-stage patients (rs10515789, multivariate P=0.02; HR=1.93, 95% CI 1.11-3.35). Both EBF1 and IL12B strongly regulate IL-12p40 blood levels, and IL-12p40 polymorphisms may contribute to melanoma susceptibility and influence patient outcome.

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Most individuals infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis develop latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Some may progress to active disease and would benefit from preventive treatment yet no means currently exists to predict who will reactivate. Here, we provide an approach to stratify LTBI based on IFN-γ responses to two antigens, the recombinant Early-Secreted Antigen Target-6 (rESAT-6) and the latency antigen Heparin-Binding Haemagglutinin (HBHA).

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Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process and aircraft fire have a role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementaion of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the cost and risk involved in performing large-scale fire/evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Very Large Aircraft' (VLA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. By describing the present capabililties and limitations of the EXODUS evacuation model and associated fire models, this paper will examine the future development and data requirements of these models.

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Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, cabin crew training and in post mortuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described. Finally, the data requiremnets of the airEXODUS evacuation model is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the the Univesity of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

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Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in cabin crew training and post mortuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation `Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. This paper describes the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model and some attempts at validation, including its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described.

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Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria, in cabin crew training and post-mortem accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and the costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation ultra high capacity aircraft (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. This paper describes the capabilities and limitations of the airEXODUS evacuation model and some attempts at validation, including its successful application to the prediction of a recent certification trial, prior to the actual trial taking place. Also described is a newly defined performance parameter known as OPS that can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. In addition, sample evacuation simulations in the presence of fire atmospheres are described.

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Computer based analysis of evacuation can be performed using one of three different approaches, namely optimisation, simulation or risk assessment. Furthermore, within each approach different means of representing the enclosure, the population, and the behaviour of the population are possible. The myriad of approaches which are available has led to the development of some 22 different evacuation models. This article attempts to describe each of the modelling approaches adopted and critically review the inherent capabilities of each approach. The review is based on available published literature.

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Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in the design and development of safer aircraft, in the implementation of safer and more rigorous certification criteria and in post mortuuum accident investigation. As the risk of personal injury and costs involved in performing large-scale evacuation experiments for the next generation 'Ultra High Capacity Aircraft' (UHCA) are expected to be high, the development and use of these evacuation modelling tools may become essential if these aircraft are to prove a viable reality. In this paper the capabilities and limitation of the air-EXODUS evacuation model are described. Its successful application to the prediction of a recent certificaiton trial, prior to the actual trial taking place, is described. Also described is a newly defined parameter known as OPS which can be used as a measure of evacuation trial optimality. Finally, the data requirements of aircraft evacuation models is discussed along with several projects currently underway at the University of Greenwich designed to obtain this data. Included in this discussion is a description of the AASK - Aircraft Accident Statistics and Knowledge - data base which contains detailed information from aircraft accident survivors.

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Mathematical models of straight-grate pellet induration processes have been developed and carefully validated by a number of workers over the past two decades. However, the subsequent exploitation of these models in process optimization is less clear, but obviously requires a sound understanding of how the key factors control the operation. In this article, we show how a thermokinetic model of pellet induration, validated against operating data from one of the Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOCC) lines in Canada, can be exploited in process optimization from the perspective of fuel efficiency, production rate, and product quality. Most existing processes are restricted in the options available for process optimization. Here, we review the role of each of the drying (D), preheating (PH), firing (F), after-firing (AF), and cooling (C) phases of the induration process. We then use the induration process model to evaluate whether the first drying zone is best to use on the up- or down-draft gas-flow stream, and we optimize the on-gas temperature profile in the hood of the PH, F, and AF zones, to reduce the burner fuel by at least 10 pct over the long term. Finally, we consider how efficient and flexible the process could be if some of the structural constraints were removed (i.e., addressed at the design stage). The analysis suggests it should be possible to reduce the burner fuel lead by 35 pct, easily increase production by 5+ pct, and improve pellet quality.

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Computer based analysis of evacuation can be performed using one of three different approaches, namely optimization, simulation and risk assessment. Furthermore, within each approach different means of representing the enclosure, the population and the behaviour of the population are possible. The myriad of approaches that are available has led to the development of some 22 different evacuation models. This review attempts to describe each of the modelling approaches adopted and critically review the inherent capabilities of each approach. The review is based on available published literature.

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When designing a new passenger ship or modifiying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design is safe from an evacuation point of view? In the building and aviation industries, computer based evacuation models are being used to tackle similar issues. In these industries, the traditonal restrictive prescriptive approach to design is making way for performance based design methodologies using risk assessment and computer simulation. In the maritime industry, ship evacuation models off the promise to quickly and efficiently bring these considerations into the design phase, while the ship is "on the drawing board". This paper describes the development of evacuation models with applications to passenger ships and further discusses issues concerning data requirements and validation.