The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe

Effective disaster risk management relies on science-based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The consultation on the United Nations post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlights the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, in order to save lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital early flood warning information to national and international civil protection authorities, who can use this information to make decisions on how to prepare for upcoming floods. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings are estimated based on the forecasts of the continental-scale European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) using existing flood damage cost information and calculations of potential avoided flood damages. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to test the uncertainty in the method and develop an envelope of potential monetary benefits of EFAS warnings. The results provide clear evidence that there is likely a substantial monetary benefit in this cross-border continental-scale flood early warning system. This supports the wider drive to implement early warning systems at the continental or global scale to improve our resilience to natural hazards.

Understanding complexities in international accounting standard setting: agenda entry and the case of IFRS for SMEs

Earlier accounting works have shown that an understanding of agenda entry is critical to better understanding the accounting standards setting process. Consider Walker and Robinson (1993; 1994) and Ryan (1998); and more generally agenda entrance as theorized in Kingdon (2011). In 2003, the IASB placed on its agenda a project to promulgate a standard for small and medium-sized entities (SMEs). This provides our focus. It seemed to be a departure from the IASB’s constitutional focus on capital market participants. Kingdon’s three-streams model of agenda entry helps to identify some of the complexities related to politics and decision making messiness that resulted in a standard setting project for simplified IFRS, misleadingly titled IFRS for SMEs. Complexities relate to the broader international regulatory context, including the boundaries of the IASB’s standard-setting jurisdiction, the role of board members in changing those boundaries, and such sensitivities over the language that the IASB could not agree on a suitably descriptive title. The paper shows similarities with earlier agenda entrance studies by Walker and Robinson (1994) and Ryan (1998). By drawing on interviewees’ recollections and other material it especially reinforces the part played by the nuanced complexities that influence what emerges as an international accounting standard.

Fat mass-and obesity-associated genotype, dietary intakes and anthropometric measures in European adults: the Food4Me study

The interplay between the fat mass- and obesity-associated (FTO) gene variants and diet has been implicated in the development of obesity. The aim of the present analysis was to investigate associations between FTO genotype, dietary intakes and anthropometrics among European adults. Participants in the Food4Me randomised controlled trial were genotyped for FTO genotype (rs9939609) and their dietary intakes, and diet quality scores (Healthy Eating Index and PREDIMED-based Mediterranean diet score) were estimated from FFQ. Relationships between FTO genotype, diet and anthropometrics (weight, waist circumference (WC) and BMI) were evaluated at baseline. European adults with the FTO risk genotype had greater WC (AAv. TT: +1·4 cm; P=0·003) and BMI (+0·9 kg/m2; P=0·001) than individuals with no risk alleles. Subjects with the lowest fried food consumption and two copies of the FTO risk variant had on average 1·4 kg/m2 greater BMI (Ptrend=0·028) and 3·1 cm greater WC (Ptrend=0·045) compared with individuals with no copies of the risk allele and with the lowest fried food consumption. However, there was no evidence of interactions between FTO genotype and dietary intakes on BMI and WC, and thus further research is required to confirm or refute these findings.

Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe

A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out the interest rates from exchange rates. The following analysis is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c.1383-1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non-usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.

Influence diagnostics for linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors

We introduce in this paper the class of linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors. The score functions and the Fisher information matrices are derived for the parameters of interest and an iterative process is proposed for the parameter estimation. Some robustness aspects of the maximum likelihood estimates are discussed. The normal curvatures of local influence are also derived for some usual perturbation schemes whereas diagnostic graphics to assess the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates are proposed. The methodology is applied to analyse the daily log excess return on the Microsoft whose empirical distributions appear to have AR(1) and heavy-tailed errors. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Personalized Communications : A Cross Media tool for the future

Personalized communication is when the marketing message is adapted to each individual by using information from a databaseand utilizing it in the various, different media channels available today. That gives the marketer the possibility to create a campaign that cuts through today’s clutter of marketing messages and gets the recipients attention. PODi is a non-profit organization that was started with the aim of contributing knowledge in the field of digital printingtechnologies. They have created a database of case studies showing companies that have successfully implemented personalizedcommunication in their marketing campaigns. The purpose of the project was therefore to analyze PODi case studies with the main objective of finding out if/how successfully the PODi-cases have been and what made them so successful. To collect the data found in the PODi cases the authors did a content analysis with a sample size of 140 PODi cases from the year 2008 to 2010. The study was carried out by analyzing the cases' measurable ways of success: response rate, conversion rate, visited PURL (personalized URL:s) and ROI (Return On Investment). In order to find out if there were any relationships to be found between the measurable result and what type of industry, campaign objective and media vehicle that was used in the campaign, the authors put up different research uestions to explore that. After clustering and merging the collected data the results were found to be quite spread but shows that the averages of response rates, visited PURL and conversion rates were consistently very high. In the study the authors also collected and summarized what the companies themselves claim to be the reasons for success with their marketing campaigns. The resultshows that the creation of a personalized campaign is complex and dependent on many different variables. It is for instance ofgreat importance to have a well thought-out plan with the campaign and to have good data and insights about the customer in order to perform creative personalization. It is also important to make it easy for the recipient to reply, to use several media vehicles for multiple touch points and to have an attractive and clever design.

Design and assessment of a large commercial Photovoltaic System in Barbados

One of the main aims of this thesis is to design an optimized commercial Photovoltaic (PV) system in Barbados from several variables such as racking type, module type and inverter type based on practicality, technical performance as well as financial returns to the client. Detailed simulations are done in PVSYST and financial models are used to compare different systems and their viability. Once the preeminent system is determined from a financial and performance perspective a detailed design is done using PVSYST and AutoCAD to design the most optimal PV system for the customer. In doing so, suitable engineering drawings are generated which are detailed enough for construction of the system. Detailed cost with quotes from relevant manufacturers, suppliers and estimators become instrumental in determining Balance of System Costs in addition to total project cost. The final simulated system is suggested with a PV capacity of 425kW and an inverter output of 300kW resulting in an array oversizing of 1.42. The PV system has a weighted Performance Ratio of 77 %, a specific yield of 1467 kWh/kWp and a projected annual production of 624 MWh/yr. This system is estimated to offset approximately 28 % of Carlton’s electrical load annually. Over the course of 20 years the PV system is projected to produce electricity at a cost of $0.201USD/kWh which is significantly lower than the $0.35 USD/kWh paid to the utility at the time of writing this thesis. Due to the high cost of electricity on the island, an attractive Feed-In-Tariff is not necessary to warrant the installation of a commercial System which over a lifetime which produces electricity at less than 60% of the cost to the user purchasing electricity from the utility. A simple payback period of 5.4 years, a return on investment of 17 % without incentives, in addition to an estimated diversion of 6840 barrels of oil or 2168 tonnes of CO2 further provides compelling justification for the installation of a commercial Photovoltaic System not only on Carlton A-1 Supermarket, but also island wide as well as regionally where most electricity supplies are from imported fossil fuels.

Non-monotone insurance contracts and their empirical consequences

The goal of this paper is to show the possibility of a non-monotone relation between coverage ans risk which has been considered in the literature of insurance models since the work of Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976). We present an insurance model where the insured agents have heterogeneity in risk aversion and in lenience (a prevention cost parameter). Risk aversion is described by a continuous parameter which is correlated with lenience and for the sake of simplicity, we assume perfect correlation. In the case of positive correlation, the more risk averse agent has higher cosr of prevention leading to a higher demand for coverage. Equivalently, the single crossing property (SCP) is valid and iplies a positive correlation between overage and risk in equilibrium. On the other hand, if the correlation between risk aversion and lenience is negative, not only may the SCP be broken, but also the monotonocity of contracts, i.e., the prediction that high (low) risk averse types choose full (partial) insurance. In both cases riskiness is monotonic in risk aversion, but in the last case there are some coverage levels associated with two different risks (low and high), which implies that the ex-ante (with respect to the risk aversion distribution) correlation between coverage and riskiness may have every sign (even though the ex-post correlation is always positive). Moreover, using another instrument (a proxy for riskiness), we give a testable implication to desentangle single crossing ans non single croosing under an ex-post zero correlation result: the monotonicity of coverage as a function os riskiness. Since by controlling for risk aversion (no asymmetric information), coverage is monotone function of riskiness, this also fives a test for asymmetric information. Finally, we relate this theoretical results to empirical tests in the recent literature, specially the Dionne, Gouruéroux and Vanasse (2001) work. In particular, they found an empirical evidence that seems to be compatible with asymmetric information and non single crossing in our framework. More generally, we build a hidden information model showing how omitted variables (asymmetric information) can bias the sign of the correlation of equilibrium variables conditioning on all observable variables. We show that this may be the case when the omitted variables have a non-monotonic relation with the observable ones. Moreover, because this non-dimensional does not capture this deature. Hence, our main results is to point out the importance of the SPC in testing predictions of the hidden information models.

Testing covariance stationarity

In this paper, we show that the widely used stationarity tests such as the KPSS test have power close to size in the presence of time-varying unconditional variance. We propose a new test as a complement of the existing tests. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed test possesses the following characteristics: (i) In the presence of unit root or a structural change in the mean, the proposed test is as powerful as the KPSS and other tests; (ii) In the presence a changing variance, the traditional tests perform badly whereas the proposed test has high power comparing to the existing tests; (iii) The proposed test has the same size as traditional stationarity tests under the null hypothesis of stationarity. An application to daily observations of return on US Dollar/Euro exchange rate reveals the existence of instability in the unconditional variance when the entire sample is considered, but stability is found in subsamples.

Reformas ecônomicas, mudanças institucionais e crescimento na América Latina

As reformas econômicas implementadas pelos países da América Latina a partir da segunda metade dos anos 1980 mudaram em definitivo o panorama da região. Os principais objetivos dessas medidas foram promover a recuperação econômica e gerar condições para o crescimento sustentado. De maneira a avaliar os efeitos das reformas sobre o desempenho econômico dos países e, principalmente, sobre a taxa de crescimento, muitos trabalhos recentes se dedicaram ao tema. Esta dissertação se enquadra nessa linha de pesquisa acerca dos efeitos das reformas sobre o crescimento das economias latino-americanas. O foco, entretanto, não fica restrito à avaliação do impacto sobre o produto per capita desses países. Os determinantes fundamentais do produto são igualmente considerados: produtividade total e parcial de fatores e acumulação de capital. De forma a empreender tal investigação, partiu-se de uma base teórica de modelos neoclássicos de crescimento. O caráter institucional das reformas permitiu complementar esse arcabouço conceitual com elementos de modelos que incluem variáveis de natureza institucional no rol dos determinantes do produto per capita. Assim, a abordagem empregada na dissertação possibilitou testar de que forma essas medidas, vistas como mudanças institucionais, afetaram as variáveis de interesse, algo que não havia sido tratado de forma satisfatória pela literatura. A análise econométrica desenvolvida com base em um painel de 17 países latino americanos no período entre 1970 e 1995, considerados subperíodos de cinco anos, revelou que as cinco áreas de reforma consideradas - abertura comercial, liberalização da conta de capital, privatização e reformas financeira e tributária - tiveram um impacto positivo sobre o produto per capita. Além disso, a investigação empírica indicou ter sido o efeito positivo sobre a produtividade do capital físico o principal canal pelo qual as reformas promoveram o crescimento dessas economias. Há evidências de que o efeito sobre a acumulação de capital também se constituiu em um canal importante.

Marketing performance measurement : overview of approaches and practices for high technology firms

Um levantamento de 320 executivos de marketing feito pelo Conselho CMO e divulgado em junho de 2004 indicou que poucas companhias de alta tecnologia (menos de 20% das empresas entrevistadas) têm desenvolvido medidas e métricas úteis e expressivas para as suas organizações de marketing. Porém a pesquisa também revelou que companhias que estabeleceram medidas formais e compreensivas atingiram resultados financeiros superiores e tiveram mais confiança do CEO na função de marketing. Esta dissertação provê uma visão geral da informação precisa para executivos de marketing entenderem e implementarem processos para medição de performance de marketing (MPM) em suas organizações. Ela levanta questões para gerentes de marketing na industria de alta tecnologia com respeito às demandas para maior responsabilidade final, valor de medição para o melhoramento dos processos de marketing, iniciativas para determinar a lucratividade dos investimentos em marketing, e a importância das atividades de marketing nos relatórios corporativos. Esta dissertação defende a implementação de MPM, mapeando seus benefícios de medição para ambos gerentes de marketing e as suas empresas. o trabalho logo explora alguns conceitos gerais de medição de marketing e investiga algumas abordagens a MPM propostas pela industria, pela comunidade acadêmica, e pelos analistas. Finalmente, a dissertação descreve algumas práticas que todo gerente de marketing na industria de alta tecnologia deve considerar quando adotando MPM. As sugestões são gerais, mas devem familiarizar o leitor com as informações precisas para habilitar processos e rigor na sua organização com respeito a MPM.

Retorno sobre o investimento de um programa de atenção domiciliar em uma seguradora especializada em saúde

O objetivo do presente trabalho é apresentar possíveis aplicações de métodos de avaliação financeira em práticas preventivas de uma seguradora especializada em saúde, especificamente na atenção domiciliar, utilizando conceitos de valor presente líquido (VPL), taxa interna de retorno (TIR), retorno sobre o investimento (ROI), retorno sobre o patrimônio (ROE ¿ em inglês, return on equity) e valor econômico adicionado (EVA® ¿ em inglês, economic value added), e, adaptados para uma análise gerencial, não-contábil, para conseguir demonstrar a contribuição destes para atingir uma análise mais consistente da atenção domiciliar estudada. Os resultados obtidos mostraram a viabilidade na aplicação desses indicadores financeiros para analisar os programas de atendimento domiciliar, e são necessários mais estudos para verificar também a aplicabilidade em programas de medicina preventiva.

Valor da tecnologia da informação e sua relação com métricas de desempenho empresarial: o caso de uma multinacional do ramo químico

O cenário globalizado e competitivo impulsiona os avanços tecnológicos e proporciona novas oportunidades para o desenvolvimento de inovações e novas soluções. Neste contexto, o papel da Tecnologia da Informação antes atribuído às atividades mais operacionais evolui para um enfoque mais estratégico e de parceria na criação de vantagem competitiva sustentável e assim, contribui para a geração de valor nos negócios. O aumento nos investimentos de TI nas últimas décadas tem sido acompanhado de questionamentos a respeito de retornos de investimento. Apesar dos diversos trabalhos desenvolvidos na área, há ainda controvérsias a respeito do real valor de TI o que torna o tema ao mesmo tempo desafiador e interessante para ser trabalhado. Neste sentido, este trabalho apresenta um estudo de caso de uma empresa multinacional do ramo químico no Brasil, na qual foi implementado um Sistema de Informação Gerencial, o Business Intelligence. Verificar-se-á se o uso de TI através da ferramenta de BI trouxe benefícios para a Organização. O Modelo simplificado de uso de Tecnologia da Informação em benefícios dos negócios e o Balanced Scorecard foram utilizados para sistematizar e auxiliar a condução do trabalho. Os fundamentos teóricos utilizados na discussão e análise do caso abrangem o Uso de TI, a Gestão de TI, Sistemas de Informação, Benefícios e Valor de TI.

Política cambial e macroeconomia do desenvolvimento

Alguns autores têm chamado a atenção para a importância da administração cambial nos processos de desenvolvimento econômico no que vem sendo conhecido como um ¿development approach¿ para taxas de câmbio. O nível do câmbio real teria forte impacto na acumulação de capital na medida em que afetaria as trajetórias de consumo, investimento e poupança agregados de uma economia via definição do nível do salário real. O setor de bens comercializáveis não tradicional estimulado por um câmbio competitivo destacar-se-ia pelo seu dinamismo e potencial de inovações tecnológicas, contribuindo para aumentos de produtividade necessários ao processo de desenvolvimento econômico. Estímulos ao setor de exportações contribuiriam também para a redução da vulnerabilidade a crises externas. Inúmeros estudos têm destacado a ocorrência de crises no balanço de pagamentos por problemas de sobrevalorização cambial ou desalinhamento. Com o objetivo de contribuir para essa discussão, o trabalho a ser apresentado trata das relações existentes entre nível do câmbio real e o processo de desenvolvimento econômico. Tem como objetivo mais específico analisar a hipótese de que haveria uma relação negativa entre nível do câmbio real e taxas de crescimento per capita. Câmbios reais relativamente desvalorizados seriam benéficos para processos de desenvolvimento econômico enquanto que níveis excessivos de apreciação cambial seriam nocivos.

Responsabilidade socioambiental empresarial: uma análise do retorno financeiro dos investimentos socioambientais no Brasil

A proposta deste trabalho é ampliar o estudo sobre o tema da Responsabilidade Socioambiental Empresarial tanto no panorama teórico como também no empírico. No contexto teórico, este estudo procurou fazer uma revisão das argumentações tanto contrárias como a favor de um comportamento social e ambientalmente mais responsável por parte das empresas. Foi realizada uma análise da evolução do modelo de gestão das empresas, que cada vez mais passa a incorporar as questões sociais e ambientais na agenda das decisões estratégicas. Esta evolução tem sido motivada principalmente pelos problemas ambientais causados pelo aquecimento global. Os resultados obtidos por este estudo indicaram que há correlação positiva entre o desempenho socioambiental e o desempenho financeiro das empresas. A variável socioambiental mais relevante neste resultado é o investimento social interno, que se mostrou fortemente correlacionada com o indicador financeiro contábil ROA (Return on Assets). Quanto à análise de causalidade, os resultados também indicaram que o investimento social interno tem efeito positivo sobre a variável ROA.