Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe

The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, where voters reward or punish government at the ballot box according to economic performance. The alternative, policy-oriented hypothesis, where voters favor parties closest to their issue position, has been neglected in this literature. We explore policy voting with respect to an archetypal economic policy issue – unemployment. Voters who favor lower unemployment should tend to vote for left parties, since they “own” the issue. Examining a large time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) pool of Western European nations, we find some evidence for economic policy voting. However, it exists in a form conditioned by incumbency. According to varied tests, left incumbents actually experience a net electoral cost, if the unemployment rate climbs under their regime. Incumbency, then, serves to break any natural economic policy advantage that might accrue to the left due to the unemployment issue.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

A comparative retrospective clinical study of hypodontia in Pierre Robin sequence and isolated cleft palate : distribution, number and sites affected

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Glycated hemoglobin, body weight and blood pressure in type 2 diabetes patients initiating dapagliflozin treatment in primary care:a retrospective study

Introduction - The present study aimed to describe characteristics of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in UK primary care initiated on dapagliflozin, post-dapagliflozin changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), body weight and blood pressure, and reasons for adding dapagliflozin to insulin. Methods - Retrospective study of patients with T2D in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with first prescription for dapagliflozin. Patients were included in the study if they: (1) had a first prescription for dapagliflozin between November 2012 and September 2014; (2) had a Read code for T2D; (3) were registered with a practice for at least 6 months before starting dapagliflozin; and (4) remained registered for at least 3 months after initiation. A questionnaire ascertained reason(s) for adding dapagliflozin to insulin. Results - Dapagliflozin was most often used as triple therapy (27.7%), dual therapy with metformin (25.1%) or added to insulin (19.2%). Median therapy duration was 329 days [95% confidence interval (CI) 302–361]. Poor glycemic control was the reason for dapagliflozin initiation for 93.1% of insulin-treated patients. Avoiding increases in weight/body mass index and insulin resistance were the commonest reasons for selecting dapagliflozin versus intensifying insulin. HbA1c declined by mean of 9.7 mmol/mol (95% CI 8.5–10.9) (0.89%) 14–90 days after starting dapagliflozin, 10.2 mmol/mol (95% CI 8.9–11.5) (0.93%) after 91–180 days and 12.6 mmol/mol (95% CI 11.0–14.3) (1.16%) beyond 180 days. Weight declined by mean of 2.6 kg (95% CI 2.3–2.9) after 14–90 days, 4.3 kg (95% CI 3.8–4.7) after 91–180 days and 4.6 kg (95% CI 4.0–5.2) beyond 180 days. In patients with measurements between 14 and 90 days after starting dapagliflozin, systolic and diastolic blood pressure decreased by means of 4.5 (95% CI −5.8 to −3.2) and 2.0 (95% CI −2.9 to −1.2) mmHg, respectively from baseline. Similar reductions in systolic and diastolic blood pressure were observed after 91–180 days and when follow-up extended beyond 180 days. Results were consistent across subgroups. Conclusion - HbA1c, body weight and blood pressure were reduced after initiation of dapagliflozin in patients with T2D in UK primary care and the changes were consistent with randomized clinical trials.

Safety and efficacy of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir in black patients with hepatitis C virus infection: A retrospective analysis of phase 3 data.

UNLABELLED: Black patients chronically infected with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) have historically had lower rates of response to interferon-based treatment than patients of other races. In the phase 3 ION program, the single-tablet regimen of the NS5A inhibitor ledipasvir and NS5B nucleotide polymerase inhibitor sofosbuvir was shown to be safe and highly effective in the general population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir in black patients using data from the three open-label ION clinical trials, which evaluated the safety and efficacy of 8, 12, and 24 weeks of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir with or without ribavirin for the treatment of treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients with genotype 1 HCV, including those with compensated cirrhosis. The primary endpoint was sustained virologic response at 12 weeks after the end of therapy (SVR12). For our analysis, rates of SVR12, treatment-emergent adverse events, and graded laboratory abnormalities were analyzed in black versus non-black patients. Of the 1949 patients evaluated, 308 (16%) were black. On average, black patients were older, had higher body mass index, were more likely to be IL28B non-CC, and had a lower serum alanine aminotransferase at baseline than non-black patients. Overall, 95% of black and 97% of non-black patients achieved SVR12. The rate of relapse was 3% in black patients as compared with 2% in non-black patients. The most common adverse events included fatigue, headache, nausea, and insomnia. The majority of adverse events occurred more frequently in the ribavirin-containing arms of the studies. No differences were observed in overall safety by race. CONCLUSION: A once-daily dosage of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir was similarly effective in black and non-black patients with genotype 1 HCV infection. The addition of ribavirin did not appear to increase SVR12 but was associated with higher rates of adverse events.

A comparative retrospective clinical study of hypodontia in Pierre Robin sequence and isolated cleft palate : distribution, number and sites affected

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Voting behaviour on free votes: Simply a matter of preferences?

Previous research examining the outcomes of free votes concludes that voting behaviour is determined in large part by MPs’ personal preferences. However, most studies do not measure preferences directly and ignore other possible determinants of voting behaviour. This piece illustrates the need to address these shortcomings before one concludes that preferences explain the outcomes of free votes. I illustrate this by examining a series of divisions on the issue of House of Lords reform. Using direct measures of preferences and controlling for alternative explanations, the analysis suggests MPs’ preferences had little effect on voting behaviour on this issue.

The Silent Majority: an Exploration of the Integration of Voting Software within Theatre in Education programmes

I wanted to explore whether traditional Forum Theatre approaches can be enhanced by the use of integrated voting software to empower young people. My research is based on two of a series of widening participation interactive TiE programmes focused on the decisions young people make on educational progression. I worked as a director alongside students studying Drama and Performance at The University of Worcester and the programmes have toured widely to schools across Worcestershire and Herefordshire. ‘It’s Up to You!’ (2013 – 2014) was aimed at years 8 and 9 choosing their GCSE options and ‘Move on Up!’ (2014 - 2015) looked at the hopes and fears of year 6 pupils about to go up to secondary school. Finding a voice in Boal’s framework as a ‘specactor’ does not always appeal to a pupil who does not want to stand out from the crowd or is not familiar with a classroom where drama conventions are practised or understood. The anonymity of the voting software with results of decisions made appearing instantly on screen is certainly appealing to some pupils: ‘I also loved the keypads they gave us so that we could answer the questions without having to put our hand up and wait..’ This paper aims to interrogate the idea that empowering needs to not simply be about giving voice to a few confident group members but allowing the silent majority to be able to experiment with decision making in an educational and social context.

Voting informational Sheet, August 11, 2014

Voting information sheet.

Voting: Fact sheet, August 11, 2014

Information for voting. Every citizen has the right to vote. Absentee voting information

Laparoscopic versus open total mesorectal excision for stage I-III mid and low rectal cancer: a retrospective 5 years analysis

Introduction. Total mesorectal excision (TME) is the cornerstone of a correct surgical therapy for extraperitoneal rectal cancer. Aim of the study is to evaluate our 5 years experience confronting retrospectively laparoscopic (lap) TME in respect to its laparotomic (open) counterpart. Patients and Methods. 30 patients were treated laparoscopically for stage I-III extraperitoneal rectal cancer and retrospectively compared to a homogeneous group, stratified for sex, age, comorbidities and stage of disease. Results. 30 days mortality was zero for both groups, while morbidity was 20% for the lap group and 36.6% for the open group. Mean lymph nodes harvested was 24 ± 12 for the lap group, 26 ± 14 for the open group (p > 0.05). Five years overall and disease free survival was respectively 82.2% and 81.4% in the lap group, 79.9% and 79.6% in the open group, without statistical significance (p>0.05). Discussion. Minimally invasive TME resulted a safe, effective and oncologically adequate procedure when retrospectively compared to its laparotomic counterpart, with 5 years overall survival and disease free survival reaching no statistical significance compared to the open approach, but with all the advantages of the laparoscopy such as less pain and blood loss, faster recovery, less morbidity and better cosmetics. Conclusions. Our study has retrospectively demonstrated that laparoscopic TME is feasible and oncologically effective, even if it remains a complex minimally invasive procedure, requiring adequate skill. More prospective, randomized studies are necessary to define such a procedure as the new gold standard in treatment of stage I-III extraperitoneal rectal cancer.

Colorectal retained foreign bodies per anum introduced. Three years retrospective study at Emergency Surgery Unit

Colorectal foreign bodies per anum introduced are not exceptional. They can be classified as high-lying or low-lying, depending on their location relative to the recto-sigmoid junction. High-lying rectal foreign bodies sometimes require surgery; low-lying ones are often palpable by digital examination and can removed at bedside. No reliable data exist regarding the frequency of inserted rectal foreign bodies and the literature is largely anecdotal. We review our experience on patients almost all males and heterosexual with retained colorectal foreign bodies and their outcome in Surgical Emergency Unit of a Southern Italy University hospital.