Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

Schizophrenic urban reality: the changing urban landscapes of the Mediterranean region and developmental influences

This chapter considers aspects of urban design and associated identity of place that shifts over time and has to identify with aspects of economic pressures to develop as well as cultural concerns about change.

Economic Transformation in Ghana: Where Will the Path Lead?

In the context of the Ghanaian government’s objective of structural transformation with an emphasis on manufacturing, this paper provides a case study of economic transformation in Ghana, exploring patterns of growth, sector transformation, and agglomeration. We document and examine why, despite impressive growth and poverty reduction figures, Ghana’s economy has exhibited less transformation than might be expected for a country that has recently achieved middle-income status. Ghana’s reduced share of agriculture in the economy, unlike many successfully transformed countries in Asia and Latin America, has been filled by services, while manufacturing has stagnated and even declined. Likely causes include weak transformation of the agricultural sector and therefore little development of agro-processing, the emergence of “consumption cities” and consumption-driven growth, upward pressure on the exchange rate, weak production linkages, and a poor environment for private-sector-led manufacturing.

MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX NETWORKS THROUGH THE PATH-STAR TRANSFORMATION AND OPTIMAL MULTIVARIATE METHODS

The topology of real-world complex networks, such as in transportation and communication, is always changing with time. Such changes can arise not only as a natural consequence of their growth, but also due to major modi. cations in their intrinsic organization. For instance, the network of transportation routes between cities and towns ( hence locations) of a given country undergo a major change with the progressive implementation of commercial air transportation. While the locations could be originally interconnected through highways ( paths, giving rise to geographical networks), transportation between those sites progressively shifted or was complemented by air transportation, with scale free characteristics. In the present work we introduce the path-star transformation ( in its uniform and preferential versions) as a means to model such network transformations where paths give rise to stars of connectivity. It is also shown, through optimal multivariate statistical methods (i.e. canonical projections and maximum likelihood classification) that while the US highways network adheres closely to a geographical network model, its path-star transformation yields a network whose topological properties closely resembles those of the respective airport transportation network.

Agrobacterium tumefasciens-mediated transformation of the aquatic fungus Blastocladiella emersonii

Agrobacterium tumefaciens is widely used for plant DNA transformation and more recently, has also been used to transform yeast, filamentous fungi and even human cells. Using this technique, we developed the first transformation protocol for the saprobic aquatic fungus Blastocladiella emersonii, a Blastocladiomycete localized at the base of fungal phylogenetic tree, which has been shown as a promising and interesting model of study of cellular function and differentiation. We constructed binary T-DNA vectors containing hygromycin phosphotransferase (hph) or enhanced green fluorescent protein (egfp) genes, under the control of Aspergillus nidulans trpC promoter and terminator sequences. 24 h of co-cultivation in induction medium (IM) agar plates, followed by transfer to PYG-agar plates containing cefotaxim to kill Agrobacterium tumefsciens and hygromycin to select transformants, resulted in growth and sporulation of resistant transformants. Genomic DNA from the pool o resistant zoospores were shown to contain T-DNA insertion as evidenced by PCR amplification of hph gene. Using a similar protocol we could also evidence the expression of enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP) in zoospores derived from transformed cells. This protocol can also open new perspectives for other non-transformable closely related fungi, like the Chytridiomycete class. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Förändrade intimitetsformer bland äldre i det senmoderna samhället

Changing forms of intimacy among older people in late modern society The purpose of this paper is to draw attention to a neglected reality in Swedish social research: New romantic relationships in later life. Our theoretical points of departure are the transformation of intimacy and the transition from a culture of marriage to a culture of divorce. We ask if the transformation of intimacy has reached later life and investigate late life divorce, attitudes to and choice of union form in late life heterosexual relationships, relationship history and the importance of a relationship for life satisfaction. The results, which are based both on demographic data and a survey to 60–90 year old Swedes (n=1225), show that changing relationship patterns in late modern Sweden have reached older people. In romantic relationships initiated in later life LAT is the preferred union form, followed by cohabitation, while marriage is a rare choice. In some respects this makes older people an avant-garde in the investigation of alternative union forms. The results also show the importance of romantic relationships for life satisfaction in later life – independent of union form. Finally we criticize Swedish census data, which is based on civil status, for giving a somewhat distorted image of older people’s family and romantic lives.    

The sustainability revolution : A societal paradigm shift - ethos, innovation, government transformation

The Sustainability revolution: A societal paradigm shift – ethos, innovation, governance transformation This paper identifies several key mechanisms that underlie major paradigm shifts. After identifying four such mechanisms, the article focuses on one type of transformation which has a prominent place in the sustainability revolution that the article argues is now taking place. The transformation is piecemeal, incremental, diffuse – in earlier writings referred to as ”organic”. This is a more encompassing notion than grassroots, since the innovation and transformation processes may be launched and developed at multiple levels through diverse mechanisms of discovery and development. Major features of the sustainability revolution are identified and comparisons made to the industrial revolution.

Sociologin, hybriderna och den sociala verkligheten : exemplet kärnavfall

Sociology, hybrids and social reality: the case of nuclear waste The continuing technological transformation of nature means that sociology’s traditional vision of a sharp divide between nature and society is becoming ever harder to defend. Starting from Bruno Latour’s critique of modernity, and Nikolas Rose’s explorations of political power beyond the state, this article presents a framework for analysing the expanding wealth of hybrids of nature and society surrounding us today, and the problems of government they pose. These hybrids confront us with the need to rethink sociology’s conception of ‘the social’. With Latour’s help, the interplay of nature and society can be understood as subject to technical mediation, opening the way for studies of the varying arrangements through which different configurations of nature and society are produced. Rather than alternative social constructions of nature, what sociologists should be at pains to analyse and question are different programmes and strategies for bringing together natural and social forces in durable combinations. In the article, the geological disposal of nuclear waste serves as a useful example for exploring the fruitfulness of the analytical framework put forward. This complex undertaking constitutes just one component in a larger field of technoscientific endeavour that has irrevocably transformed nature while simultaneously re-making society. Addressing this case, we seek to reveal the promise of a sociology that does not bound ‘the social’ in advance, but rather makes the co-production of technology and society one of its most important objects of study.