'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

The effect of Tenofovir on vitamin D metabolism in HIV-infected adults is dependent on sex and ethnicity

Background: Tenofovir has been associated with renal phosphate wasting, reduced bone mineral density, and higher parathyroid hormone levels. The aim of this study was to carry out a detailed comparison of the effects of tenofovir versus non-tenofovir use on calcium, phosphate and, vitamin D, parathyroid hormone (PTH), and bone mineral density. Methods: A cohort study of 56 HIV-1 infected adults at a single centre in the UK on stable antiretroviral regimes comparing biochemical and bone mineral density parameters between patients receiving either tenofovir or another nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. Principal Findings: In the unadjusted analysis, there was no significant difference between the two groups in PTH levels (tenofovir mean 5.9 pmol/L, 95% confidence intervals 5.0 to 6.8, versus non-tenofovir; 5.9, 4.9 to 6.9; p = 0.98). Patients on tenofovir had significantly reduced urinary calcium excretion (median 3.01 mmol/24 hours) compared to non-tenofovir users (4.56; p,0.0001). Stratification of the analysis by age and ethnicity revealed that non-white men but not women, on tenofovir had higher PTH levels than non-white men not on tenofovir (mean difference 3.1 pmol/L, 95% CI 5.3 to 0.9; p = 0.007). Those patients with optimal 25-hydroxyvitamin D (.75 nmol/L) on tenofovir had higher 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D [1,25(OH)2D] (median 48 pg/mL versus 31; p = 0.012), fractional excretion of phosphate (median 26.1%, versus 14.6;p = 0.025) and lower serum phosphate (median 0.79 mmol/L versus 1.02; p = 0.040) than those not taking tenofovir. Conclusions: The effects of tenofovir on PTH levels were modified by sex and ethnicity in this cohort. Vitamin D status also modified the effects of tenofovir on serum concentrations of 1,25(OH)2D and phosphate.

Residential property investment : assessing home ownership long term viability

Home purchase and ownership is seen by the majority of Australians as the basis for a sound investment strategy and to seciure their long term retirement goals. Although home ownership rates in Australia are in excess of 65% of the population, there have been doubts raised as to the effectiveness of purchasing a house as the main source of retirement income. The main issue with this approach is that the house has to be sold to gain access to these funds or the owners have to take out a reverse mortgage to access the capital tied up in their home, which can be more expensive than selling. This paper will carryout a detailed analysis of a number of investment options to determine the effectiveness of home purchase as a long term investment vehicle. This study has found that the long term investment in equities or managed superannuation funds can provide a greater retirement income than the purchase of a residential property for owner occupation

Analysis of genome survey sequences and SSR marker development for Siamese Mud Carp, Henicorhynchus siamensis, using 454 Pyrosequencing

Siamese mud carp (Henichorynchus siamensis) is a freshwater teleost of high economic importance in the Mekong River Basin. However, genetic data relevant for delineating wild stocks for management purposes currently are limited for this species. Here, we used 454 pyrosequencing to generate a partial genome survey sequence (GSS) dataset to develop simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers from H. siamensis genomic DNA. Data generated included a total of 65,954 sequence reads with average length of 264 nucleotides, of which 2.79% contain SSR motifs. Based on GSS-BLASTx results, 10.5% of contigs and 8.1% singletons possessed significant similarity (E value < 10–5) with the majority matching well to reported fish sequences. KEGG analysis identified several metabolic pathways that provide insights into specific potential roles and functions of sequences involved in molecular processes in H. siamensis. Top protein domains detected included reverse transcriptase and the top putative functional transcript identified was an ORF2-encoded protein. One thousand eight hundred and thirty seven sequences containing SSR motifs were identified, of which 422 qualified for primer design and eight polymorphic loci have been tested with average observed and expected heterozygosity estimated at 0.75 and 0.83, respectively. Regardless of their relative levels of polymorphism and heterozygosity, microsatellite loci developed here are suitable for further population genetic studies in H. siamensis and may also be applicable to other related taxa.

Sweat : the subtropical imaginary

Does heat have a cooling effect on culture? Sweat argues the reverse: culture thrives in the subtropical zones. While acknowledging that the subtropical generates ambivalence—being cast as alternately idyllic or hellish—Sweat nonetheless seeks to develop the specific voices of subtropical cultures. The uneasy place of this sweaty discourse is explored across art, literature, architecture, and the built environment. In particular, Sweat focuses on the most commonly experienced situation, the everyday house. While it addresses subjects from Japan, Brazil, and France, Sweat centres on Brisbane, Queensland—long in the shadow of Sydney and Melbourne in the Australian cultural psyche—due to its enduring and self-conscious attention to subtropical living.

Chimaeric HIV-1 subtype C Gag molecules with large in-frame C-terminal polypeptide fusions form virus-like particles

HIV-1 Pr55 Gag virus-like particles (VLPs) are strong immunogens with potential as candidate HIV vaccines. VLP immunogenicity can be broadened by making chimaeric Gag molecules: however, VLPs incorporating polypeptides longer than 200 aa fused in frame with Gag have not yet been reported. We constructed a range of gag-derived genes encoding in-frame C-terminal fusions of myristoylation-competent native Pr55Gag and p6-truncated Gag (Pr50Gag) to test the effects of polypeptide length and sequence on VLP formation and morphology, in an insect cell expression system. Fused sequences included a modified reverse transcriptase-Tat-Nef fusion polypeptide (RTTN, 778 aa), and truncated versions of RTTN ranging from 113 aa to 450 aa. Baculovirus-expressed chimaeric proteins were examined by western blot and electron microscopy. All chimaeras formed VLPs which could be purified by sucrose gradient centrifugation. VLP diameter increased with protein MW, from ∼100 nm for Pr55Gag to ∼250 nm for GagRTTN. The presence or absence of the Gag p6 region did not obviously affect VLP formation or appearance. GagRT chimaeric particles were successfully used in mice to boost T-cell responses to Gag and RT that were elicited by a DNA vaccine encoding a GagRTTN polypeptide, indicating the potential of such chimaeras to be used as candidate HIV vaccines. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HIV-1 sub-type C chimaeric VLPs boost cellular immune responses in mice

Several approaches have been explored to eradicate HIV; however, a multigene vaccine appears to be the best option, given their proven potential to elicit broad, effective responses in animal models. The Pr55 Gagprotein is an excellent vaccine candidate in its own right, given that it can assemble into large, enveloped, virus-like particles (VLPs) which are highly immunogenic, and can moreover be used as a scaffold for the presentation of other large non-structural HIV antigens. In this study, we evaluated the potential of two novel chimaeric HIV-1 Pr55 Gag-based VLP constructs - C-terminal fusions with reverse transcriptase and a Tat::Nef fusion protein, designated GagRT and GagTN respectively - to enhance a cellular response in mice when used as boost components in two types of heterologous prime-boost vaccine strategies. A vaccine regimen consisting of a DNA prime and chimaeric HIV-1 VLP boosts in mice induced strong, broad cellular immune responses at an optimum dose of 100 ng VLPs. The enhanced cellular responses induced by the DNA prime-VLP boost were two- to three-fold greater than two DNA vaccinations. Moreover, a mixture of GagRT and GagTN VLPs also boosted antigen-specific CD8+ and CD4+ T-cell responses, while VLP vaccinations only induced predominantly robust Gag CD4+ T-cell responses. The results demonstrate the promising potential of these chimaeric VLPs as vaccine candidates against HIV-1. © 2010 Pillay et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Use of condition-specific patient-reported outcome measures in clinical trials among patients with wrist osteoarthritis : a systematic review

Background. This paper aimed to identify condition-specific patient-reported outcome measures used in clinical trials among people with wrist osteoarthritis and summarise empirical peer-reviewed evidence supporting their reliability, validity, and responsiveness to change. Methods. A systematic review of randomised controlled trials among people with wrist osteoarthritis was undertaken. Studies reporting reliability, validity, or responsiveness were identified using a systematic reverse citation trail audit procedure. Psychometric properties of the instruments were examined against predefined criteria and summarised. Results. Thirteen clinical trials met inclusion criteria. The most common patient-reported outcome was the disabilities of the arm, shoulder, and hand questionnaire (DASH). The DASH, the Michigan Hand Outcomes Questionnaire (MHQ), the Patient Evaluation Measure (PEM), and the Patient-Reported Wrist Evaluation (PRWE) had evidence supporting their reliability, validity, and responsiveness. A post-hoc review of excluded studies revealed the AUSCAN Osteoarthritis Hand Index as another suitable instrument that had favourable reliability, validity, and responsiveness. Conclusions. The DASH, MHQ, and AUSCAN Osteoarthritis Hand Index instruments were supported by the most favourable empirical evidence for validity, reliability, and responsiveness. The PEM and PRWE also had favourable empirical evidence reported for these elements. Further psychometric testing of these instruments among people with wrist osteoarthritis is warranted.

Nambour : the model rural school

This paper examines the Rural Schools of Queensland. Starting with Nambour in 1917, the scheme incorporated thirty schools, and operated for over forty years. The rhetoric of the day was that boys and girls from the senior classes of primary school would be provided with elementary instruction of a practical character. In reality, the subjects taught were specifically tailored to provide farm skills to children in rural centres engaged in farming, dairying or fruit growing. Linked to each Rural School was a number of smaller surrounding schools, students from which travelled to the Rural School for special agricultural or domestic instruction. Through this action, the Queensland Department of Public Instruction left no doubt it intended to provide educational support for agrarian change and development within the state; in effect, they had set in motion the creation of a Queensland yeoman class. The Department’s intention was to arrest or reverse the trend toward urbanisation — whilst increasing agricultural productivity — through the making of a farmer born of the land and accepting of the new scientific advances in agriculture.

Fine-mapping identifies multiple prostate cancer risk loci on 5p15 some associating with TERT expression

Associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 5p15 and multiple cancer types have been reported. We have previously shown evidence for a strong association between prostate cancer (PrCa) risk and rs2242652 at 5p15, intronic in the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene that encodes TERT. To comprehensively evaluate the association between genetic variation across this region and PrCa, we performed a fine-mapping analysis by genotyping 134 SNPs using a custom Illumina iSelect array or Sequenom MassArray iPlex, followed by imputation of 1094 SNPs in 22 301 PrCa cases and 22 320 controls in The PRACTICAL consortium. Multiple stepwise logistic regression analysis identified four signals in the promoter or intronic regions of TERT that independently associated with PrCa risk. Gene expression analysis of normal prostate tissue showed evidence that SNPs within one of these regions also associated with TERT expression, providing a potential mechanism for predisposition to disease.

Evaluation of Eph receptor and ephrin expression within the human cornea and limbus

Eph receptor tyrosine kinases and their ligands, the ephrins, regulate the development and maintenance of multiple organs but little is known about their potential role within the cornea. The purpose of this study was to perform a thorough investigation of Eph/ephrin expression within the human cornea including the limbal stem cell niche. Initially, immunohistochemistry was performed on human donor eyes to determine the spatial distribution of Eph receptors and ephrins in the cornea and limbus. Patterns of Eph/ephrin gene expression in (1) immortalised human corneal endothelial (B4G12) or corneal epithelial (HCE-T) cell lines, and (2) primary cultures of epithelial or stromal cells established from the corneal limbus of cadaveric eye tissue were then assessed by reverse transcription (RT) PCR. Limbal epithelial or stromal cells from primary cultures were also assessed for evidence of Eph/ephrin-reactivity by immunofluorescence. Immunoreactivity for ephrinA1 and EphB4 was detected in the corneal endothelium of donor eyes. EphB4 was also consistently detected in the limbal and corneal epithelium and in cells located in the stroma of the peripheral cornea. Expression of multiple Eph/ephrin genes was detected in immortalised corneal epithelial and endothelial cell lines. Evidence of Eph/ephrin gene expression was also demonstrated in primary cultures of human limbal stromal (EphB4, B6; ephrinA5) and epithelial cells (EphA1, A2; ephrinA5, B2) using both RT-PCR and immunofluorescence. The expression of Eph receptors and ephrins within the human cornea and limbus is much wider than previously appreciated and suggests multiple potential roles for these molecules in the maintenance of normal corneal architecture.

Advanced battery storage control for an autonomous microgrid

A new control method for battery storage to maintain acceptable voltage profile in autonomous microgrids is proposed in this article. The proposed battery control ensures that the bus voltages in the microgrid are maintained during disturbances such as load change, loss of micro-sources, or distributed generations hitting power limit. Unlike the conventional storage control based on local measurements, the proposed method is based on an advanced control technique, where the reference power is determined based on the voltage drop profile at the battery bus. An artificial neural network based controller is used to determine the reference power needed for the battery to hold the microgrid voltage within regulation limits. The pattern of drop in the local bus voltage during power imbalance is used to train the controller off-line. During normal operation, the battery floats with the local bus voltage without any power injection. The battery is charged or discharged during the transients with a high gain feedback loop. Depending on the rate of voltage fall, it is switched to power control mode to inject the reference power determined by the proposed controller. After a defined time period, the battery power injection is reduced to zero using slow reverse-droop characteristics, ensuring a slow rate of increase in power demand from the other distributed generations. The proposed control method is simulated for various operating conditions in a microgrid with both inertial and converter interfaced sources. The proposed battery control provides a quick load pick up and smooth load sharing with the other micro-sources in a disturbance. With various disturbances, maximum voltage drop over 8% with conventional energy storage is reduced within 2.5% with the proposed control method.

STALKERBOT : learning to navigate dynamic human environments by following people

Service robots that operate in human environments will accomplish tasks most efficiently and least disruptively if they have the capability to mimic and understand the motion patterns of the people in their workspace. This work demonstrates how a robot can create a humancentric navigational map online, and that this map re ects changes in the environment that trigger altered motion patterns of people. An RGBD sensor mounted on the robot is used to detect and track people moving through the environment. The trajectories are clustered online and organised into a tree-like probabilistic data structure which can be used to detect anomalous trajectories. A costmap is reverse engineered from the clustered trajectories that can then inform the robot's onboard planning process. Results show that the resultant paths taken by the robot mimic expected human behaviour and can allow the robot to respond to altered human motion behaviours in the environment.

Guillermo Gómez-Peña : a "new age shaman” in a bohemian theme park

The Marquis de Sade was declared, “the fist commandment of art is ‘never to bore,’” and perhaps no other artist of his generation has embodied this sentiment more than Guillermo Gómez- Peña, the Mexican-born performance artist and cultural theorist living in San Francisco. Since the early 1980s Gómez-Peña, along with his performance troupe La Pocha Nostra, have been engaged in “reverse anthropology” staging “postcolonial” performances that foreground race and intervene in our cultural fears and desires by focusing on our obsession with the exotic. He deftly navigates the “post-multicultural” world – accelerated by globalization and nation branding – by using elaborate performative and interactive elements that expose (to the audience) their deeply embedded cultural stereotypes and desires for the other.

Using static analysis for automatic assessment and mitigation of unwanted and malicious activities within Android applications

In the last decade, smartphones have gained widespread usage. Since the advent of online application stores, hundreds of thousands of applications have become instantly available to millions of smart-phone users. Within the Android ecosystem, application security is governed by digital signatures and a list of coarse-grained permissions. However, this mechanism is not fine-grained enough to provide the user with a sufficient means of control of the applications' activities. Abuse of highly sensible private information such as phone numbers without users' notice is the result. We show that there is a high frequency of privacy leaks even among widely popular applications. Together with the fact that the majority of the users are not proficient in computer security, this presents a challenge to the engineers developing security solutions for the platform. Our contribution is twofold: first, we propose a service which is able to assess Android Market applications via static analysis and provide detailed, but readable reports to the user. Second, we describe a means to mitigate security and privacy threats by automated reverse-engineering and refactoring binary application packages according to the users' security preferences.