Estimação do desconto de reequilíbrio ótimo em concessões rodoviárias através da metodologia das opções reais

Este trabalho propõe um novo modelo para avaliação, em tempo discreto, do desconto de reequilíbrio em contratos de concessão rodoviária, a partir de conceitos da Teoria Clássica de Finanças e da Teoria de Opções Reais. O modelo desenvolvido permitiu incorporar flexibilidades decorrentes de incertezas nas situações reais, como decisões gerenciais, vieses de comportamento e componentes políticos, comumente presentes em contratos de concessões rodoviária. Os resultados obtidos, utilizando-se como estudo de caso a BR-262, sinalizaram que há espaço para uma melhor intervenção regulatória com relação ao mecanismo do desconto de reequilíbrio, no sentido de prover melhores incentivos aos concessionários.

Terms of trade, macroeconomic dynamics and default decisions

A evidência empírica aponta que Termos de Troca é uma variável relevante tanto para dinâmica macroeconômica como para o risco de default em países emergentes. No entanto, a literatura de dívida soberana baseada nos trabalhos de Eaton e Gerzovitz (1981) e Arellano (2008) ainda não explorou de forma adequada as conecções entre a dinâmica de termos de troca e incentivos ao default. Nós contribuímos nessa área, introduzindo volatilidade de Termos de Troca no modelo proposto por Mendoza e Yue (2012), no qual as decisões de dívida soberana são vinculadas à um modelo de equilíbrio geral para a economia doméstica. Nós encontramos que uma economia exposta à volatilidade dos termos de troca consegue produzir uma variabilidade do consumo que supera significativamente a variabilidade do produto, característica que constitui um fato estilizado chave de business cycles de países emergentes. Nossos exercícios também mostram que decisões de default são geradas por mudanças bruscas nos termos de troca, mas não necessariamente estão vinculados à estados ruins da economia.

Avaliação das Opções Reais de Conversão e Abandono para Uma Mineradora de Minério de Ferro Sob Cenário de Stress

O mercado de minério de ferro tem passado por um período de stress nos últimos meses. O arrefecimento dos investimentos chineses em infraestrutura resultou em perspectivas negativas para a demanda dessa commodity. Paralelamente, a entrada em operação de novos projetos com volume de produção relevante aumentou a oferta desse produto no mercado. Essa conjuntura de fatores resultou na queda do preço do minério de ferro no mercado mundial e em um cenário de retornos reduzidos para as mineradoras. Nesse contexto, o objetivo do presente estudo é avaliar a flexibilidade gerencial, disponível aos administradores de mineradoras operacionais, de suspender ou fechar o empreendimento dependendo do preço do minério de ferro. Essas decisões serão estudadas através da Teoria das Opções Reais, onde a opção de conversão será aplicada na situação de suspensão e reabertura da mina e a opção de abandono será aplicada na situação do seu fechamento. O processo estocástico a ser seguido pelo preço do minério de ferro será o Movimento Geométrico Browniano, implementado através de um Modelo Binomial conforme proposto por Cox, Ross e Rubinstein (1979). O resultado do trabalho comprova o valor das opções reais estudadas e indica que essas opções reais têm maior valor em cenários de stress, quando o preço do minério de ferro está desvalorizado.

Planning digital libraries: definitions and decisions

Trabalho apresentado na conferência Os Desafios das Bibliotecas Digitais realizado na Fundação Getulio Vargas em agosto 2014

Um estudo sobre as armadilhas do processo decisório em fusões e aquisições

A atividade de fusões e aquisições, também conhecida no mercado como M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions), tem sido uma relevante estratégia adotada pelos CEOs para garantir a competitividade em mercados doméstico e internacional, sendo justificada por diversos fatores, dentre eles: necessidade de crescimento, aumento do market share, criação e/ou aumento de barreiras de entrada, aquisição de conhecimento (capital humano, tecnologia e processos) e busca por sinergias. Ainda que existam estudos sobre M&A visando uma melhor compreensão dos problemas relacionados ao alinhamento entre a estratégia e a tomada de decisão, dos fatores críticos de sucesso, melhores práticas para condução de due diligence (processo de investigação e auditoria), valorações econômicas e integrações na implementação da fusão ou aquisição, poucos se debruçaram em analisar as armadilhas do processo decisório de M&A, no que diz respeito aos vieses psicológicos existentes ao longo da tomada de decisão. Desta forma, o objetivo central da presente pesquisa é apresentar a consolidação da análise das principais armadilhas que interferem no processo decisório de fusões e aquisições. De maneira complementar, também se almejou alcançar os seguintes objetivos intermediários: compreender o processo de fusões e aquisições; identificar as principais etapas e pontos de decisão no processo decisório de fusões e aquisições; analisar as armadilhas inerentes a uma tomada de decisão. Assim, foi realizada uma pesquisa qualitativa que, além de revisão de literatura, contou com a realização de entrevistas com 15 profissionais que tiveram atuação relevante em projetos de M&A de empresas brasileiras que adquiriram, foram adquiridas ou realizaram fusões entre 2009 e 2015, em diversos segmentos da indústria. As informações obtidas foram compiladas e analisadas através da metodologia de Análise de Discurso. Como resultado, esta pesquisa mostrou que decisões de M&A são extremamente complexas e apresentam alto grau de incerteza, o que implica em um maior risco da ocorrência de armadilhas psicológicas. Dentre as armadilhas que exercem maior influência nas decisões de fusões e aquisições, de acordo com este estudo, a contextualização foi a que apresentou maior dominância, seguida pela evidência de confirmação e ancoragem.

Implications of innovation for inclusive growth: a study of Medellín, Colombia's metro system and integral urban projects

Medellín, Colombia continues to attract global recognition for its evolution from a crimesaturated and desegregated city to an award-winning paragon of innovation. Two innovations in particular, the Metro System & the Integral Urban Projects, have fostered and contributed to Medellín’s inclusive growth, as indicated by a corresponding increase in both social and economic capital. Through a mixed methodology analysis of these two experiences, including participant observation, in-depth interviews with different industry leaders, and household surveys, this thesis explores the extent to which inclusive innovation has contributed to inclusive growth in Medellín. The surveys were distributed to three sensitive neighborhoods of Medellín and apply a Synthesized Framework for measuring inclusive growth, one that includes five indicators for social capital and five indicators for economic capital, emphasizing the importance of progression in both dimensions. By drawing on concepts of inclusivity surfacing more frequently in business lexicon and the emergence of a newly branded Medellín, the findings of this thesis indicates that the implementation of innovations in association with a unified city vision practiced by the local government, corporate and non-profit sector has contributed to achieving inclusive growth, and has left civilians hungry for more.

Asymmetric preferences in investment decisions in the Brazilian financial market

The main objective of this article is to test the hypothesis that utility preferences that incorporate asymmetric reactions between gains and losses generate better results than the classic Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions in the Brazilian market. The asymmetric behavior can be computed through the introduction of a disappointment (or loss) aversion coefficient in the classical expected utility function, which increases the impact of losses against gains. The results generated by both traditional and loss aversion utility functions are compared with real data from the Brazilian market regarding stock market participation in the investment portfolio of pension funds and individual investors.

Welfare cost of inflation considering adoption decisions and interest-bearing deposits

Attanasio et al. (JPE, 2002) have used microeconomic data on households to provide new estimates of the welfare costs of infiation using Bailey's unidimensional welfare measure as a basis for their calculations. Such a measure does not properly take into consideration lhe fact that the majority of households in their sample (58.7 percent) holds not only bank deposits and currency, but also a second type of interest-bearing assct. This work devises alternative formulas which account for the existence of bank deposits and a sccond interest-bearing asset in the economy, as well as for adoption decisions regarding alternative financiai technologies.

Boundary decisions of the firm: make, buy, cooperate

Firms are not atomistic hierarchies only linked with one another at arm’s-length distance in markets. Instead, a myriad of long-lived, highly cooperative relationships between suppliers and customers are pervasively found in the B2B world. And it is within those enmeshed relationships and networks that the co-evolution of capabilities and business specialisms is brought about and developed. If that is the actual ‘topography’ of the business landscape, then the coordination of economic activities in general, and the boundary decisions of each and every firm in particular, are unlikely to be reduced to a (dual) choice between ‘making’ or ‘buying’. Inter-firm cooperation is in itself a third governance structure, in alternative to the hierarchical and the market modes of coordination. And, what is also equally important to note, it is through the make-or-buy-or-cooperate decisions that the (embedded) firm is able to change its nature and scope, redefine its (fuzzy) boundaries, and thus adapt to an ever-changing business setting.

SysPRE: systematized process for requirements engineering in knowledge discovery projects

The domain of Knowledge Discovery (KD) and Data Mining (DM) is of growing importance in a time where more and more data is produced and knowledge is one of the most precious assets. Having explored both the existing underlying theory, the results of the ongoing research in academia and the industry practices in the domain of KD and DM, we have found that this is a domain that still lacks some systematization. We also found that this systematization exists to a greater degree in the Software Engineering and Requirements Engineering domains, probably due to being more mature areas. We believe that it is possible to improve and facilitate the participation of enterprise stakeholders in the requirements engineering for KD projects by systematizing requirements engineering process for such projects. This will, in turn, result in more projects that end successfully, that is, with satisfied stakeholders, including in terms of time and budget constraints. With this in mind and based on all information found in the state-of-the art, we propose SysPRE - Systematized Process for Requirements Engineering in KD projects. We begin by proposing an encompassing generic description of the KD process, where the main focus is on the Requirements Engineering activities. This description is then used as a base for the application of the Design and Engineering Methodology for Organizations (DEMO) so that we can specify a formal ontology for this process. The resulting SysPRE ontology can serve as a base that can be used not only to make enterprises become aware of their own KD process and requirements engineering process in the KD projects, but also to improve such processes in reality, namely in terms of success rate.

O dia mais feliz da minha vida: a entrada na universidade segundo os alunos recém-ingressos no curso de Pedagogia da UFRN(2004.1)

The present work, based on the methodological principles of the Comprehensive Discourse Analysis, aimed, through the speech of twelve newly arrived students at the Pedagogy course of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, to understand the moment students start university. It also aimed to analyze the relationship between the schools they were coming from and university entrance as well as the relationship between university and their new students. In the first part of the work, which focused on school knowledge, a comprehensive listening of the speeches of the students led primarily to a distinction, established by the students, between public and private schools, a distinction especially based on the view of superiority of private schools against public ones. The abovementioned interpretation is found in the discussion of the structural duality of Brazilian education which, historically, offers different pedagogical appliances among students of more priviledged social classes and those who come from lower levels of society. The overcome of this duality, aspired by the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, was stopped by the advent of a new economic model neoliberalism, which reinforced the differences between public and private when it prioritized the market on the economic, political and social relations, including educational projects. Impoverishment of public institutions and pauperization of the work of professors affected also the relationship between teachers and studens at the current institution. This is how the teacher becomes the greatest villain at the public management system. All of these references concerning differences in the quality of teaching at public and private schools, expressed by the students interviewed, however, were centered in the preparation for the entrance exam, called vestibular, thus showing a view that the relationship between the student and the school he came from is of a propedeutic kind and even so, reduced to a preparation for an entrance exam. In the second part of the work, which analyzed the relationship between newly arrived students and their university, it was noticed that the latter represents a whole new world. This world is seen as the change at the student´s social statute for now he is grown, takes more responsibilities and is socially respected. This change of attitude established by society and the discovery of a new world which requires more independence from the students, creates in them feelings of pride and fear and they feel insecure when it comes to making decision in the campus because now their decisions deliver a greater load of responsibility. This is when students understand they need to develop autonomy, which is seen, in this work, as the capacity to make conscious decisions. Nevertheless students expressed an understanding of autonomy as something that comes as a gift for those who enter university and not as a process that is constructed from social experiences. For these students, the need to be autonomous refers to the relationships with their teachers and the search for information. This search, however, is also related, according to interviews, to public school financial cuts, which penalize university, and to the lack of employers

A participação popular na elaboração de políticas públicas de desenvolvimento local: um estudo no Município de Serrinha/RN (1997-2004)

The question of participation has been debated in Brazil since the 1980 decade in search a better way to take care of poulation s demand. More specificaly after the democratic open (1985) begins to be thought ways to make population participates of decisions related to alocation of public resources. The characteristic of participates actualy doesn t exist, population to be carried through is, at top, consulted, and the fact population participates stays restrict to some technics interests at the projects, mainly of public politics of local development. Observe that this implementation happens through a process and that has its limits (pass) that could be surpassed through strategies made to that. This dissertation shows results of a research about participative practices in city of Serrinha between 1997 and 2004, showing through a study of the case of Serrinha what was the process used to carry through these pratices in a moment and local considered model of this application. The analyses were developed through a model of research elaborated by the author based on large literature respects the ideal process to implant a participative public politics. The present research had a qualitative boarding, being explorative and descritive nature. The researcher (author of this dissertation) carried through all the research phases, including the transcriptions of interviews that were recorded with a digital voice recorder. Before the analysis of these data was verified that despite the public manager (former-mayor) had had a real interest in implant a process of local development in city, he was not able to forsee the correct process to do it. Two high faults were made. The first was the intention to have as tool a development plan, what locked up to make this plan was the booster of supossed participative pratice and no the ideal model that would be a plan generate by popular initiative. The second one was absence of a critical education project for the population that should be the fisrt step to carry through a politc like that

Estudo e especificação de um sistema de instrumentação para unidades de elevação de petróleo utilizando tecnologia sem fio

Wireless sensor networks are reality nowadays. The growing necessity of connectivity between existing industrial plant equipments pushes the research and development of several technologies. The IEEE 802.15.4 LR-WPAN comes as a low-cost and powersaving viable solution, which are important concerns while making decisions on remote sensoring projects. This study intends to propose a wireless communication system which makes possible the monitoring of analogic and/or digital variables (i. e., the pressure studied) involved on the artificial methods for oil and gas lifting. The main issues are: To develop a software based on SMAC Standard in order to create a wireless network to monitoring analogic and/or digital variables; To evaluate the communication link based on the number of lost packets tested in different environments (indoor and outdoor) and To propose an instrumentation system consisting of wireless devices

A Construção do processo democrático de auto-avaliação institutucional na UNESP

O desenvolvimento de um processo democrático de avaliação institucional na UNESP, uma universidade multi-campus, envolveu três desafios: garantir o envolvimento de grupos representativos da comunidade no processo de avaliação; atribuir poder e responsabilidade a cada setor acadêmico e administrativo no processo de avaliação; criar uma cultura de auto-avaliação e reflexão que possibilitasse debate crítico e auto-gestão dos projetos acadêmicos. Com base nos termos de referência estabelecidos pela comunidade a CPA desenvolveu uma metodologia de avaliação democrática e investigativa, orientada para a auto-gestão e de natureza quali-quantitativa. Fundamentada em três enfoques teóricos de avaliação, o democrático, o de tomada de decisão e o crítico o processo envolveu três funções: a diagnóstica, a formativo-reflexiva e a de revisão crítica. Atualmente os usos dos resultados da avaliação para orientar políticas e decisões acadêmicas, especialmente nos cursos de graduação, evidenciam avanços no processo de internalização de cultura de avaliação orientada para auto-gestão.