Analysing the complexity of the model-based decision making processes within the industrial management context

PURPOSE The decision-making process plays a key role in organizations. Every decision-making process produces a final choice that may or may not prompt action. Recurrently, decision makers find themselves in the dichotomous question of following a traditional sequence decision-making process where the output of a decision is used as the input of the next stage of the decision, or following a joint decision-making approach where several decisions are taken simultaneously. The implication of the decision-making process will impact different players of the organization. The choice of the decision- making approach becomes difficult to find, even with the current literature and practitioners’ knowledge. The pursuit of better ways for making decisions has been a common goal for academics and practitioners. Management scientists use different techniques and approaches to improve different types of decisions. The purpose of this decision is to use the available resources as well as possible (data and techniques) to achieve the objectives of the organization. The developing and applying of models and concepts may be helpful to solve managerial problems faced every day in different companies. As a result of this research different decision models are presented to contribute to the body of knowledge of management science. The first models are focused on the manufacturing industry and the second part of the models on the health care industry. Despite these models being case specific, they serve the purpose of exemplifying that different approaches to the problems and could provide interesting results. Unfortunately, there is no universal recipe that could be applied to all the problems. Furthermore, the same model could deliver good results with certain data and bad results for other data. A framework to analyse the data before selecting the model to be used is presented and tested in the models developed to exemplify the ideas. METHODOLOGY As the first step of the research a systematic literature review on the joint decision is presented, as are the different opinions and suggestions of different scholars. For the next stage of the thesis, the decision-making process of more than 50 companies was analysed in companies from different sectors in the production planning area at the Job Shop level. The data was obtained using surveys and face-to-face interviews. The following part of the research into the decision-making process was held in two application fields that are highly relevant for our society; manufacturing and health care. The first step was to study the interactions and develop a mathematical model for the replenishment of the car assembly where the problem of “Vehicle routing problem and Inventory” were combined. The next step was to add the scheduling or car production (car sequencing) decision and use some metaheuristics such as ant colony and genetic algorithms to measure if the behaviour is kept up with different case size problems. A similar approach is presented in a production of semiconductors and aviation parts, where a hoist has to change from one station to another to deal with the work, and a jobs schedule has to be done. However, for this problem simulation was used for experimentation. In parallel, the scheduling of operating rooms was studied. Surgeries were allocated to surgeons and the scheduling of operating rooms was analysed. The first part of the research was done in a Teaching hospital, and for the second part the interaction of uncertainty was added. Once the previous problem had been analysed a general framework to characterize the instance was built. In the final chapter a general conclusion is presented. FINDINGS AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS The first part of the contributions is an update of the decision-making literature review. Also an analysis of the possible savings resulting from a change in the decision process is made. Then, the results of the survey, which present a lack of consistency between what the managers believe and the reality of the integration of their decisions. In the next stage of the thesis, a contribution to the body of knowledge of the operation research, with the joint solution of the replenishment, sequencing and inventory problem in the assembly line is made, together with a parallel work with the operating rooms scheduling where different solutions approaches are presented. In addition to the contribution of the solving methods, with the use of different techniques, the main contribution is the framework that is proposed to pre-evaluate the problem before thinking of the techniques to solve it. However, there is no straightforward answer as to whether it is better to have joint or sequential solutions. Following the proposed framework with the evaluation of factors such as the flexibility of the answer, the number of actors, and the tightness of the data, give us important hints as to the most suitable direction to take to tackle the problem. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS AND AVENUES FOR FUTURE RESEARCH In the first part of the work it was really complicated to calculate the possible savings of different projects, since in many papers these quantities are not reported or the impact is based on non-quantifiable benefits. The other issue is the confidentiality of many projects where the data cannot be presented. For the car assembly line problem more computational power would allow us to solve bigger instances. For the operation research problem there was a lack of historical data to perform a parallel analysis in the teaching hospital. In order to keep testing the decision framework it is necessary to keep applying more case studies in order to generalize the results and make them more evident and less ambiguous. The health care field offers great opportunities since despite the recent awareness of the need to improve the decision-making process there are many opportunities to improve. Another big difference with the automotive industry is that the last improvements are not spread among all the actors. Therefore, in the future this research will focus more on the collaboration between academia and the health care sector.

Anti-nuclear antibody production and immune-complex glomerulonephritis in BALB/c mice treated with pristane.

The pathogenesis of systemic lupus erythematosus is thought to be primarily under genetic control, with environmental factors playing a secondary role. However, it has been shown recently that intraperitoneal injection of pristane (2,6,10,14-tetramethylpentadecane) induces autoantibodies typical of lupus in BALB/c mice, a strain not usually considered to be genetically susceptible to the disease. In this study, the induction of autoimmune disease by pristane was investigated. BALB/c mice receiving pristane were tested for autoantibody production and histopathological evidence of glomerulonephritis. Six of 11 mice developed IgM anti-single-stranded DNA antibodies shortly after receiving pristane and 4 developed IgM anti-histone antibodies, but anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies were absent. IgG anti-DNA and anti-histone antibodies were absent. In contrast, the lupus-associated anti-nuclear ribonucleoprotein/Sm and anti-Su autoantibodies produced by these mice were predominantly IgG. In addition to autoantibodies, most of the mice developed significant proteinuria. Light microscopy of the kidney showed segmental or diffuse proliferative glomerulonephritis. Electron microscopy showed subepithelial and mesangial immune-complex deposits and epithelial foot process effacement. Immunofluorescence revealed striking glomerular deposition of IgM, IgG, and C3 with a mesangial or mesangiocapillary distribution. Thus, pristane induces immune-complex glomerulonephritis in association with autoantibodies typical of lupus in BALB/c mice. These data support the idea that lupus is produced by an interplay of genetic and environmental factors and that unlike the MRL or (NZB x W)F1 mouse models, in which genetic susceptibility factors are of primary importance, environmental factors are of considerable importance in the autoimmune disease of pristane-treated BALB/c mice.

Gaseificação de microalgas: estudo termogravimétrico e modelagem matemática do processo em reator solar.

Devido ao esgotamento de recursos não renováveis e o aumento das preocupações sobre as alterações climáticas, a produção de combustível renovável a partir de microalgas continua a atrair muita a atenção devido ao seu potencial para taxas rápidas de crescimento, alto teor de óleo, capacidade de crescer em cenários não convencionais e a neutralidade de carbono, além de eliminar a preocupação da disputa com as culturas alimentares. Em virtude disso, torna-se importante o desenvolvimento de um processo de conversão das microalgas em gás combustível, em destaque o gás de síntese. Visando essa importância, estudou-se a reação de gaseificação da microalga Chlorella vulgaris através de experimentos de análise termogravimétrica para estimar os parâmetros cinéticos das reações e através da simulação de um modelo matemático dinâmico termoquímico do processo usando equações de conservação de massa e energia acoplados a cinética de reação. Análises termogravimétricas isotérmicas e dinâmicas foram realizadas usando dois diferentes tipos de modelos cinéticos: isoconversionais e reações paralelas independentes (RPI). Em ambos os modelos, os valores dos parâmetros cinéticos estimados apresentaram bons ajustes e permaneceram dentro daqueles encontrados na literatura. Também foram analisados os efeitos dos parâmetros cinéticos do modelo RPI sobre a conversão da microalga no intuito de observar quais mais se pronunciavam diante a variação de valores. Na etapa de simulação do sistema controlado pelo reator solar, o modelo matemático desenvolvido foi validado por meio da comparação dos valores de temperatura e concentrações de produtos obtidos medidos experimentalmente pela literatura, apresentando boa aproximação nos valores e viabilizando, juntamente com a etapa experimental de termogravimetria, a produção de gás de síntese através da gaseificação da microalga Chlorella vulgaris.

Schleiermacher's Doctrine of Biblical Authority: An Alternative to Content-Based/Supernaturalist and Function-Based Rationalist Models

Author: Kerry W. Holton Title: SCHLEIERMACHER’S DOCTRINE OF BIBLICAL AUTHORITY: AN ALTERNATIVE TO CONTENT-BASED/SUPERNATURALIST AND FUNCTION- BASED/RATIONALIST MODELS Advisor: Theodore M. Vial, Jr. Degree Date: August 2015 This dissertation examines Friedrich Schleiermacher’s understanding of biblical authority and argues that, as an alternative to strictly supernaturalistic and rationalistic models, his understanding allows the New Testament to speak authoritatively in Christian religion in an age of critical, historical awareness. After classifying Schleiermacher’s position in a typology of the doctrine of biblical authority, this dissertation explores his conception of divine revelation and inspiration vis-à-vis scripture. It demonstrates that although he did not believe there is warrant for the claim of a direct connection between divine revelation and scripture, or that scripture is the foundation of faith, he nonetheless asserted that the New Testament is authoritative. He asserted the normative authority of the New Testament on the basis that it is the first presentation of Christian faith. This dissertation examines Schleiermacher’s “canon within the canon,” as well as his denial that the Old Testament shares the same normative worth and inspiration of the New. Although this dissertation finds difficulty with some of Schleiermacher’s views regarding the Old Testament, it names two significant strengths of what is identified as his evangelical, content-based, and rationalist approach to biblical authority. First, it recognizes and values the co-presence and co-activity of the supernatural and the natural !ii in the production of the New Testament canon. This allows both scripture and the church to share religious authority. Second, it allows Christian faith and the historical-method to coexist, as it does not require people to contradict what they know to be the case about science, history, and philosophy. Thus, this dissertation asserts that Schleiermacher’s understanding of biblical authority is a robust one, since, for him, the authority of scripture does not lie in some property of the texts themselves that historians or unbelievers can take away.

Analyse de la distribution d'Escherichia coli, utilisée comme un marqueur microbiologique, dans un réseau de production porcin

La présence d’Escherichia coli pathogènes en élevages porcins entraine des retards de croissance et la mortalité. La transmission des E. coli pathogènes entre les élevages et l'abattoir d’un même réseau de production n'est pas bien décrite. La détection des gènes de virulence des E. coli pathogènes pourrait permettre d’identifier un marqueur de contamination dans le réseau. L’objectif de cette étude a été d’identifier un marqueur de contamination E. coli dans un réseau de production porcine défini afin de décrire certains modes de transmission des E. coli pathogènes. Pour ce faire, une région géographique comprenant 10 fermes d’engraissement, un abattoir et un réseau de transport a été sélectionnée. Trois lots de production consécutifs par ferme ont été suivis pendant 12 mois. Des échantillons environnementaux ont été prélevés à l’intérieur et à l’extérieur des fermes (3 visites d’élevage), dans la cour de l’abattoir (2 visites lors de sorties de lot) et sur le camion de transport. La détection des gènes de virulence (eltB, estA, estB, faeG, stxA, stx2A, eae, cnf, papC, iucD, tsh, fedA) dans les échantillons a été réalisée par PCR multiplexe conventionnelle. La distribution temporelle et spatiale des gènes de virulence a permis d’identifier le marqueur de contamination ETEC/F4 défini par la détection d’au moins un gène d’entérotoxine ETEC (estB, estA et eltB) en combinaison avec le gène de l’adhésine fimbriaire (faeG). La distribution des échantillons positifs ETEC/F4 qualifie la cour de l’abattoir comme un réservoir de contamination fréquenté par les transporteurs, vecteurs de contamination entre les élevages. Ceci suggère le lien microbiologique entre l’élevage, les transporteurs et l’abattoir jouant chacun un rôle dans la dissémination des microorganismes pathogènes et potentiellement zoonotiques en production porcine.

Factor Markets in General Computable Equilibrium Models. Factor Markets Working Document No. 47, May 2013

One objective of Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models is the analysis of economy-wide effects of policy measures. The focus of the Factor Markets project is to analyse the functioning of factor markets for agriculture in the EU-27, including the Candidate Countries. While agricultural and food markets are fully integrated in a European single market, subject to an EU-wide common policy, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), this is not the case for the agricultural factor markets capital, labour and land. There are partly serious differences with regard to member state regulations and institutions affecting land, labour and capital markets. The presentation of this heterogeneity of factor markets amongst EU Member States have been implemented in the CGE models to improve model-based analyses of the CAP and other policy measures affecting agricultural production. This final report comprises the outcome of a systematic extension and improvement of the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) model starting from an overview of the current state of the art to represent factor markets in CGE models to a description of work on labour, land and capital in MAGNET.

Production of Λ -hyperons in inelastic p+p interactions at 158 GeV/c

Inclusive production of Λ-hyperons was measured with the large acceptance NA61/SHINE spectrometer at the CERN SPS in inelastic p+p interactions at beam momentum of 158 GeV/c. Spectra of transverse momentum and transverse mass as well as distributions of rapidity and xF are presented. The mean multiplicity was estimated to be 0.120 ± 0.006 (stat.) ± 0.010 (sys.). The results are compared with previous measurements and predictions of the EPOS, UrQMD and FRITIOF models.

Measurements of π±, K±, K0s, Λ and proton production in proton–carbon interactions at 31 GeV/c with the NA61/SHINE spectrometer at the CERN SPS

Measurements of hadron production in p+C interactions at 31 GeV/c are performed using the NA61/SHINE spectrometer at the CERN SPS. The analysis is based on the full set of data collected in 2009 using a graphite target with a thickness of 4% of a nuclear interaction length. Inelastic and production cross sections as well as spectra of π±, K±, p, K0s and Λ are measured with high precision. These measurements are essential for improved calculations of the initial neutrino fluxes in the T2K long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment in Japan. A comparison of the NA61/SHINE measurements with predictions of several hadroproduction models is presented.

Age models and sedimentation rates of sites in the tropical Atlantic

Late Pleistocene signals of calcium carbonate, organic carbon, and opaline silica concentration and accumulation are documented in a series of cores from a zonal/meridional/depth transect in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean to reconstruct the regional sedimentary history. Spectral analysis reveals that maxima and minima in biogenous sedimentation occur with glacial-interglacial cyclicity as a function of both (1) primary production at the sea surface modulated by orbitally forced variation in trade wind zonality and (2) destruction at the seafloor by variation in the chemical character of advected intermediate and deep water from high latitudes modulated by high-latitude ice volume. From these results a pattern emerges in which the relative proportion of signal variance from the productivity signal centered on the precessional (23 kyr) band decreases while that of the destruction signal centered on the obliquity (41 kyr) and eccentricity (100 kyr) periods increases below ~3600-m ocean depth.

Scheduling periodic-time-critical jobs on single processor and multiprocessor computing systems /

Vita.

The State of the art in the routing and scheduling of vehicles and crews /

Mode of access: Internet.

Dynamic Models under Uncertainty for Large-Scale Enterprise Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Evaluating Neural Futures: Good Technoscience and the Challenge of Co-Production

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A metafrontier production function for estimation of technical efficiencies and technology gaps for firms operating under different technologies

This paper presents a metafrontier production function model for firms in different groups having different technologies. The metafrontier model enables the calculation of comparable technical efficiencies for firms operating under different technologies. The model also enables the technology gaps to be estimated for firms under different technologies relative to the potential technology available to the industry as a whole. The metafrontier model is applied in the analysis of panel data on garment firms in five different regions of Indonesia, assuming that the regional stochastic frontier production function models have technical inefficiency effects with the time-varying structure proposed by Battese and Coelli ( 1992).

The prevalence and concentration of Escherichia coli O157 in faeces of cattle from different production systems at slaughter

Aims: To determine the prevalence and concentration of Escherichia coli O157 shed in faeces at slaughter, by beef cattle from different production systems. Methods and Results: Faecal samples were collected from grass-fed (pasture) and lot-fed (feedlot) cattle at slaughter and tested for the presence of E. coli O157 using automated immunomagnetic separation (AIMS). Escherichia coli O157 was enumerated in positive samples using the most probable number (MPN) technique and AIMS and total E. coli were enumerated using Petrifilm. A total of 310 faecal samples were tested (155 from each group). The geometric mean count of total E. coli was 5 x 10(5) and 2.5 x 10(5) CFU g(-1) for lot- and grass-fed cattle, respectively. Escherichia coli O157 was isolated from 13% of faeces with no significant difference between grass-fed (10%) and lot-fed cattle (15%). The numbers of E. coli O157 in cattle faeces varied from undetectable (