Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 and 0.2 k BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i) potential natural vegetation (V) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (V + H3.1), and (iii) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (V + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from −1 °C in south-western Europe to +1 °C in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.

Theoretical framework for the assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change [in Europe]

Reducing risk that emerges from hazards of natural origin and societal vulnerability is a key challenge for the development of more resilient communities and the overall goal of sustainable development. The following chapter outlines a framework for multidimensional, holistic vulnerability assessment that is understood as part of risk evaluation and risk management in the context of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). As a heuristic, the framework is a thinking tool to guide systematic assessments of vulnerability and to provide a basis for comparative indicators and criteria development to assess key factors and various dimensions of vulnerability, particularly in regions in Europe, however, it can also be applied in other world regions. The framework has been developed within the context of the research project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe; ) sponsored by the European Commission within the framework of the FP 7 program.

The prevalence and predictive value of dipstick urine protein in HIV-positive persons in Europe.

INTRODUCTION Proteinuria (PTU) is an important marker for the development and progression of renal disease, cardiovascular disease and death, but there is limited information about the prevalence and factors associated with confirmed PTU in predominantly white European HIV+ persons, especially in those with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). PATIENTS AND METHODS Baseline was defined as the first of two consecutive dipstick urine protein (DPU) measurements during prospective follow-up >1/6/2011 (when systematic data collection began). PTU was defined as two consecutive DUP >1+ (>30 mg/dL) >3 months apart; persons with eGFR <60 at either DPU measurement were excluded. Logistic regression investigated factors associated with PTU. RESULTS A total of 1,640 persons were included, participants were mainly white (n=1,517, 92.5%), male (n=1296, 79.0%) and men having sex with men (n=809; 49.3%). Median age at baseline was 45 (IQR 37-52 years), and CD4 was 570 (IQR 406-760/mm(3)). The median baseline date was 2/12 (IQR 11/11-6/12), and median eGFR was 99 (IQR 88-109 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Sixty-nine persons had PTU (4.2%, 95% CI 3.2-4.7%). Persons with diabetes had increased odds of PTU, as were those with a prior non-AIDS (1) or AIDS event and those with prior exposure to indinavir. Among females, those with a normal eGFR (>90) and those with prior abacavir use had lower odds of PTU (Figure 1). CONCLUSIONS One in 25 persons with eGFR>60 had confirmed proteinuria at baseline. Factors associated with PTU were similar to those associated with CKD. The lack of association with antiretrovirals, particularly tenofovir, may be due to the cross-sectional design of this study, and additional follow-up is required to address progression to PTU in those without PTU at baseline. It may also suggest other markers are needed to capture the deteriorating renal function associated with antiretrovirals may be needed at higher eGFRs. Our findings suggest PTU is an early marker for impaired renal function.

State of the art of integrated therapy approaches in the treatment of schizophrenia: empirical evidence and clinical relevance

Objective: Integrated behavior therapy approaches are defined by the combination of behavioral and or cognitive interventions targeting neurocognition combined with other goal-oriented treatment targets such as social cognition, social skills, or educational issues. The Integrated Psychological Therapy Program (IPT) represents one of the very first behavior therapy approaches combining interventions of neurocognition, social cognition, and social competence. This comprehensive group-based bottom-up and top-down approach consists of five subprograms, each with incremental steps. IPT has been successfully implemented in several countries in Europe, America, Australia and in Asia. IPT worked as a model for some other approaches designed in the USA. IPT was undergone two further developments: based on the social competence part of IPT, the three specific therapy programs focusing residential, occupational or recreational topics were developed. Recently, the cognitive part of INT was rigorously expanded into the Integrated Neurocognitive Therapy (INT) designed exclusively for outpatient treatment: INT includes interventions targeting all neurocognitive and social cognitive domains defined by the NIMH-MATRICS initiative. These group and partially PC-based exercises are structured into four therapy modules, each starting with exercises on neurocognitive domains followed by social cognitive targets. Efficacy: The evidence of integrated therapy approaches and its advantage compared to of one-track interventions was becoming a discussion tool in therapy research as well as in mental health systems. Results of meta-analyses support superiority of integrated approaches compared to one-track interventions in more distal outcome areas such as social functioning. These results are in line with the large body of 37 independent IPT studies in 12 countries. Moreover, IPT research indicates the maintenance of therapy effects after the end of therapy and some evidence generalization effects. Additionally, the international randomized multi-center study on INT with 169 outpatients strongly supports the successful therapy of integrated therapy in proximal and distal outcome such as significant effects in cognition, functioning and negative symptoms. Clinical implication: therapy research as well as expert’s clinical experience recommends integrated therapy approaches such as IPT to be successful agents within multimodal psychiatric treatment concepts. Finally, integrated group therapy based on cognitive remediation seems to motivate and stimulate schizophrenia inpatients and outpatients to more successful and independent life also demanded by the recovery movement.

Current trends in cannulation and neuroprotection during surgery of the aortic arch in Europe†‡

OBJECTIVES To conduct a survey across European cardiac centres to evaluate the methods used for cerebral protection during aortic surgery involving the aortic arch. METHODS All European centres were contacted and surgeons were requested to fill out a short, comprehensive questionnaire on an internet-based platform. One-third of more than 400 contacted centres completed the survey correctly. RESULTS The most preferred site for arterial cannulation is the subclavian-axillary, both in acute and chronic presentation. The femoral artery is still frequently used in the acute condition, while the ascending aorta is a frequent second choice in the case of chronic presentation. Bilateral antegrade brain perfusion is chosen by the majority of centres (2/3 of cases), while retrograde perfusion or circulatory arrest is very seldom used and almost exclusively in acute clinical presentation. The same pumping system of the cardio pulmonary bypass is most of the time used for selective cerebral perfusion, and the perfusate temperature is usually maintained between 22 and 26°C. One-third of the centres use lower temperatures. Perfusate flow and pressure are fairly consistent among centres in the range of 10-15 ml/kg and 60 mmHg, respectively. In 60% of cases, barbiturates are added for cerebral protection, while visceral perfusion still receives little attention. Regarding cerebral monitoring, there is a general tendency to use near-infrared spectroscopy associated with bilateral radial pressure measurement. CONCLUSIONS These data represent a snapshot of the strategies used for cerebral protection during major aortic surgery in current practice, and may serve as a reference for standardization and refinement of different approaches.

Saving the Australian War Effort in 1916? The Significance and Impact of Global Climatic Conditions and Pests on William Morris Hughes’ Negotiations with the British Government

Taking up the thesis of Dipesh Chakrabarty (2009) that human history (including cultural history) on the one hand and natural history on the other must be brought into conversation more than has been done so in the past, this presentation will focus more closely on the significance and the impact of global climatic conditions and pests on the negotiations that Australian Prime Minister William Morris Hughes carried on with the British government between March and November 1916. Whereas Australia had been able to sell most of its produce in 1914 and 1915 the situation looked more serious in 1916, not least due to the growing shortage in shipping. It was therefore imperative for the Australian government to find a way to solve this problem, not least because it wanted to keep up its own war effort at the pace it had been going so far. In this context intentions to make or press ahead with a contribution to a war perceived to be more total those of the past interacted with natural phenomena such as the declining harvest in many parts of the world in 1916 as a consequence of climatic conditions as well as pests in many parts of the world.

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant-functional types and land-cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling

We present quantitative reconstructions of regional vegetation cover in north-western Europe, western Europe north of the Alps, and eastern Europe for five time windows in the Holocene around 6k, 3k, 0.5k, 0.2k, and 0.05k calendar years before present (bp)] at a 1 degrees x1 degrees spatial scale with the objective of producing vegetation descriptions suitable for climate modelling. The REVEALS model was applied on 636 pollen records from lakes and bogs to reconstruct the past cover of 25 plant taxa grouped into 10 plant-functional types and three land-cover types evergreen trees, summer-green (deciduous) trees, and open land]. The model corrects for some of the biases in pollen percentages by using pollen productivity estimates and fall speeds of pollen, and by applying simple but robust models of pollen dispersal and deposition. The emerging patterns of tree migration and deforestation between 6k bp and modern time in the REVEALS estimates agree with our general understanding of the vegetation history of Europe based on pollen percentages. However, the degree of anthropogenic deforestation (i.e. cover of cultivated and grazing land) at 3k, 0.5k, and 0.2k bp is significantly higher than deduced from pollen percentages. This is also the case at 6k in some parts of Europe, in particular Britain and Ireland. Furthermore, the relationship between summer-green and evergreen trees, and between individual tree taxa, differs significantly when expressed as pollen percentages or as REVEALS estimates of tree cover. For instance, when Pinus is dominant over Picea as pollen percentages, Picea is dominant over Pinus as REVEALS estimates. These differences play a major role in the reconstruction of European landscapes and for the study of land cover-climate interactions, biodiversity and human resources.

Stuck in Mobility? Fragmented Journeys of Migrants without Chances of Admission in Europe

This paper is about young migrants without chance of being granted legal residence status in the Schengen zone. Previous observations suggest that some migrants, whose country of origin leaves them with low chances of receiving asylum or in fact any type of residence permit, exhibit a highly complex migration pattern that is characterised by 1) durable “transit” across Europe, which is a multi-linear movement according to opportunities that open up along the journey; 2) a high degree of flexibility, as they have to respond to suddenly changing conditions, such as work opportunities, rejection of asylum claims, detention or deportation, and 3) switching between different legal statuses, such as asylum seeker, sans papiers or detainee. The experiences of these young adults thus show a deep ambivalence between a sense of autonomy, on the one hand, and of profound hope and powerlessness, on the other. The Dublin Convention intends to limit such a hypermobility of migrants but seems to fail in many cases. Simultaneously it provokes some of the movements by sending asylum seekers and irregular migrants back to their first country of arrivals. Given the fact that little is known about these fragmented journeys inside of the Schengen area, this ethnographic study produces novel data on a highly pertinent migration pattern, the impact of the European migration management on individual migrants as well as the inter-relatedness of the asylum regime and irregular migration in Europe. At the same time these fragmented journeys are an excellent example to discuss mobility as a resource on the one hand (since it enables this specific migrant group to extend their presence in Europe) and as a handicap on the other (since it impedes the building of stable social networks, the planning of the future, etc.).

Childhood cancer survivor cohorts in Europe.

With the advent of multimodality therapy, the overall five-year survival rate from childhood cancer has improved considerably now exceeding 80% in developed European countries. This growing cohort of survivors, with many years of life ahead of them, has raised the necessity for knowledge concerning the risks of adverse long-term sequelae of the life-saving treatments in order to provide optimal screening and care and to identify and provide adequate interventions. Childhood cancer survivor cohorts in Europe. Considerable advantages exist to study late effects in individuals treated for childhood cancer in a European context, including the complementary advantages of large population-based cancer registries and the unrivalled opportunities to study lifetime risks, together with rich and detailed hospital-based cohorts which fill many of the gaps left by the large-scale population-based studies, such as sparse treatment information. Several large national cohorts have been established within Europe to study late effects in individuals treated for childhood cancer including the Nordic Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia study (ALiCCS), the British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS), the Dutch Childhood Oncology Group (DCOG) LATER study, and the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS). Furthermore, there are other large cohorts, which may eventually become national in scope including the French Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (FCCSS), the French Childhood Cancer Survivor Study for Leukaemia (LEA), and the Italian Study on off-therapy Childhood Cancer Survivors (OTR). In recent years significant steps have been taken to extend these national studies into a larger pan-European context through the establishment of two large consortia - PanCareSurFup and PanCareLIFE. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of the current large, national and pan-European studies of late effects after childhood cancer. This overview will highlight the strong cooperation across Europe, in particular the EU-funded collaborative research projects PanCareSurFup and PanCareLIFE. Overall goal. The overall goal of these large cohort studies is to provide every European childhood cancer survivor with better care and better long-term health so that they reach their full potential, and to the degree possible, enjoy the same quality of life and opportunities as their peers.

Catching-up: The educational mobility of migrants’ and natives’ children in Europe

Migrants into European countries are often less educated than European natives. We investigate whether migrants' children are able to catch up to their native counterparts in educational attainment, and analyze the drivers of differences in intergenerational educational upward mobility between natives' versus migrants' descendants. We find that migrants' children are more likely than natives' children to surpass their parents' educational attainment in the majority of countries studied. Their parents' low education is often the strongest determinant for their ability to move up in education class across generations.