875 resultados para Probability of choice
Resumo:
Underpinning current models of the mechanisms of the action of radiation is a central role for DNA damage and in particular double-strand breaks (DSBs). For radiations of different LET, there is a need to know the exact yields and distributions of DSBs in human cells. Most measurements of DSB yields within cells now rely on pulsed-field gel electrophoresis as the technique of choice. Previous measurements of DSB yields have suggested that the yields are remarkably similar for different types of radiation with RBE values less than or equal to1.0. More recent studies in mammalian cells, however, have suggested that both the yield and the spatial distribution of DSBs are influenced by radiation quality. RBE values for DSBs induced by high-LET radiations are greater than 1.0, and the distributions are nonrandom. Underlying this is the interaction of particle tracks with the higher-order chromosomal structures within cell nuclei. Further studies are needed to relate nonrandom distributions of DSBs to their rejoining kinetics. At the molecular level, we need to determine the involvement of clustering of damaged bases with strand breakage, and the relationship between higher-order clustering over sizes of kilobase pairs and above to localized clustering at the DNA level. Overall, these studies will allow us to elucidate whether the nonrandom distributions of breaks produced by high-LET particle tracks have any consequences for their repair and biological effectiveness. (C) 2001 by Radiation Research Society.
Resumo:
Throughout design development of satellite structure, stress engineer is usually challenged with randomness in applied loads and material properties. To overcome such problem, a risk-based design is applied which estimates satellite structure probability of failure under static and thermal loads. Determining probability of failure can help to update initially applied factors of safety that were used during structure preliminary design phase. These factors of safety are related to the satellite mission objective. Sensitivity-based analysis is to be implemented in the context of finite element analysis (probabilistic finite element method or stochastic finite element method (SFEM)) to determine the probability of failure for satellite structure or one of its components.
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For over 50 years bridge plugs and cement have been used for well abandonment and work over and are still the material of choice. However the failures of cement abandonments using bridge plugs has been reported on many occasions, some of which have resulted in fatal consequences. A new patented product is designed to address the shortcomings associated with using bridge plugs and cement. The new developed tools use an alloy based on bismuth that is melted in situ using Thermite reaction. The tool uses the expansion properties of bismuth to seal the well. Testing the new technology in real field under more than 2 km deep sea water can be expensive. Virtual simulation of the new device under simulated thermal and mechanical environment can be achieved using nonlinear finite element method to validate the product and reduce cost. Experimental testing in the lab is performed to measure heat generated due to thermite reaction. Then, a sequential thermal mechanical explicit/implicit finite element solver is used to simulate the device under both testing lab and deep water conditions.
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The results of calculations investigating the effects of autodetaching resonances on the multiphoton detachment spectra of H are presented. The R-matrix Floquet method is used, in which the coupling of the ion with the laser field is described non-perturbatively. The laser field is fixed at an intensity of 10 W cm, while frequency ranges are chosen such that the lowest autodetaching states of the ion are excited through a two- or three-photon transition from the ground state. Detachment rates are compared, where possible, to previous results obtained using perturbation theory. An illustration of how non-lowest-order processes, involving autodetaching states, can lead to light-induced continuum structures is also presented. Finally, it is demonstrated that by using a frequency connecting the 1s and 2s states, the probability of exciting the residual hydrogen atom is significantly enhanced.
Resumo:
This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimisation (RRM) to the field of health economics. The RRM is a regret-based model that explores a driver of choice different from the traditional utility-based Random Utility Maximisation (RUM). The RRM approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimise their regret–regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. Analysing data from a discrete choice experiment on diet, physical activity and risk of a fatal heart attack in the next ten years administered to a sample of the Northern Ireland population, we find that the combined use of RUM and RRM models offer additional information, providing useful behavioural insights for better informed policy appraisal.
Resumo:
Aim:
The distribution of the Lusitanian flora and fauna, species which are found only in southern and western Ireland and in northern Spain and Portugal but which are absent from intervening countries, represents one of the classic conundrums of biogeography. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the distribution of the Lusitanian plant species Daboecia cantabrica was due to persistence in separate Irish and Iberian refugia, or has resulted from post-glacial recolonization followed by subsequent extinction of intervening populations.
Location:
Northern Spain and Co. Galway, western Ireland.
Methods:
Palaeodistribution modelling using Maxent was employed to identify putative refugial areas for D. cantabrica at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Phylogeographical analysis of samples from 64 locations in Ireland and Spain were carried out using a chloroplast marker (atpB–rbcL), the nuclear ITS region, and an anonymous nuclear single-copy locus.
Results:
The palaeodistribution model indicated areas with a high probability of survival for D. cantabrica at the LGM off the western coast of Galicia in Spain, and in the Bay of Biscay. Spanish populations exhibited substantially higher genetic diversity than Irish populations at all three loci, as well as geographical structuring of haplotypes within Spain consistent with divergence in separate refugia. Spanish populations also exhibited far more endemic haplotypes. Divergence time between Irish and Spanish populations associated with the putative Biscay refugium was estimated as 3.333–32 ka.
Main conclusions:
Our data indicate persistence by D. cantabrica throughout the LGM in two separate southern refugia: one in western Galicia and one in the area off the coast of western France which now lies in the Bay of Biscay. Spain was recolonized from both refugia, whilst Ireland was most likely recolonized from the Biscay refugium. On the balance of evidence across the three marker types and the palaeodistribution modelling, our findings do not support the idea of in situ survival of D. cantabrica in Ireland, contrary to earlier suggestions. The fact that we cannot conclusively rule out the existence of a small, more northerly refugium, however, highlights the need for further analysis of Lusitanian plant species.
Resumo:
Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are predicted to supersede microsatellites as the marker of choice for population genetic studies in the near future. To date, however, very few studies have directly compared both marker systems in natural populations, particularly in non-model organisms. In the present study, we compared the utility of SNPs and microsatellites for population genetic analysis of the red seaweed Chondrus crispus (Florideophyceae). Six SNP loci yielded very different patterns of intrapopulation genetic diversity compared to those obtained using seven moderately (mean 5.2 alleles) polymorphic microsatellite loci, although Bayesian clustering analysis gave largely congruent results between the two marker classes. A weak but significant pattern of isolation-by-distance was observed across scales from a few hundred metres to approximately 200?km using the combined SNP and microsatellite data set of 13 loci. Over larger scales, however, there was little correlation between genetic divergence and geographical distance. Our findings suggest that even a moderate number of SNPs is sufficient to determine patterns of genetic diversity across natural populations, and also highlight the fact that patterns of genetic variation in seaweeds arise through a complex interplay of short- and long-term natural processes, as well as anthropogenic influence.
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In this paper we seek to establish if earlier findings relating to the relationship between income poverty persistence and deprivation persistence could be due to a failure to take measurement error into account. To address this question, we apply a model of dynamics incorporating structural and error components. Our analysis shows a general similarity between latent poverty and deprivation dynamics. In both cases we substantially over-estimate the probability of exiting from poverty or deprivation. We observe a striking similarity across dimensions for both observed and latent outcomes. In both cases levels of poverty and deprivation persistence are higher for the latent case. However, there is no evidence that earlier results relating to the differences in the determinants of poverty and deprivation persistence are a consequence of differential patterns of reliability. Taking measurement error into account seems more likely to accentuate rather than diminish the contrasts highlighted by earlier research. Since longitudinal differences relating to poverty and deprivation cannot be accounted for by measurement error, it seems that we must accept that we are confronted with issues relating to validity rather than reliability. Even where we measure these dimensions over reasonable periods of time and allow for measurement error, they continue to tap relatively distinct phenomenon. Thus, if measures of persistent poverty are to constitute an important component of EU social indicators, a strong case can be made for including parallel measures of deprivation persistence and continuing to explore the relationship between them. © Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2006.
Resumo:
Hierarchical Fe/ZSM-5 zeolites were synthesized with a diquaternary ammonium surfactant containing a hydrophobic tail and extensively characterized by XRD, Ar porosimetry, TEM, DRUV-Vis, and UV-Raman spectroscopy. Their catalytic activities in catalytic decomposition of NO and the oxidation of benzene to phenol with NO as the oxidant were also determined. The hierarchical zeolites consist of thin sheets limited in growth in the b-direction (along the straight channels of the MFI network) and exhibit similar high hydrothermal stability as a reference Fe/ZSM-5 zeolite. Spectroscopic and catalytic investigations point to subtle differences in the extent of Fe agglomeration with the sheet-like zeolites having a higher proportion of isolated Fe centers than the reference zeolite. As a consequence, these zeolites have a somewhat lower activity in catalytic NO decomposition (catalyzed by oligomeric Fe), but display higher activity in benzene oxidation (catalyzed by monomeric Fe). The sheet-like zeolites deactivate much slower than bulk Fe/ZSM-5, which is attributed to the much lower probability of secondary reactions of phenol in the short straight channels of the sheets. The deactivation rate decreases with decreasing Fe content of the Fe/ZSM-5 nanosheets. It is found that carbonaceous materials are mainly deposited in the mesopores between the nanosheets and much less so in the micropores. This contrasts the strong decrease in the micropore volume of bulk Fe/ZSM-5 due to rapid clogging of the continuous micropore network. The formation of coke deposits is limited in the nanosheet zeolites because of the short molecular trafficking distances. It is argued that at high Si/Fe content, coke deposits mainly form on the external surface of the nanosheets. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Objective: To describe the incidence, prevalence, and natural history of proliferative sickle cell retinopathy (PSR). Design: Prospective longitudinal study over 20 years. Participants: Newborn screening of 100000 consecutive deliveries from 1973 to 1981 identified 315 children with homozygous sickle cell (SS) disease and 201 with SS-hemoglobin C (SC) disease. By the age of 5 years, 307 SS patients and 166 SC patients were alive and living in Jamaica and were recruited for this ophthalmic study. Methods: Description of retinal vascular changes on annual angiography and angioscopy. Main Outcome Measures: Incidence and prevalence of PSR and its behavior on follow-up. Progression of PSR was investigated using the number of eyes affected (none, one, both) and the interval until PSR onset. Results: At last review in January 2000, PSR had developed in 59 patients (14 SS, 45 SC), unilaterally in 36 patients and bilaterally in 23. Incidence increased with age in both genotypes, with crude annual incidence rates of 0.5 cases (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3-0.8) per 100 SS subjects and 2.5 cases (95% CI, 1.9-3.3) per 100 SC subjects. Prevalence was greater in SC disease, and by the ages of 24 to 26 years, PSR had occurred in 43% subjects with SC disease and in 14% subjects with SS disease. Patients with unilateral PSR had a 16% (11% SS, 17% SC) probability of regressing to no PSR and a 14% (16% SS, 13% SC) probability of progressing to bilateral PSR. Those with bilateral PSR had an 8% (8% SS, 8% SC) probability of regressing to unilateral PSR and a 1% (0 SS, 2% SC) probability of regressing to a PSR-free state. Irretrievable visual loss occurred in only 1 of 82 PSR-affected eyes, and 1 required detachment surgery and recovered normal visual acuity. Conclusions: Longitudinal observations over 20 years in a cohort of patients followed from birth confirms a greater incidence and severity of PSR in SC disease, and shows that spontaneous regression occurred in 32% of PSR-affected eyes. Permanent visual loss was uncommon in subjects observed up to the age of 26 years. © 2005 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.
Resumo:
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the outcome of Baerveldt implantation with adjunctive mitomycin-C in cases of complicated glaucoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The authors reviewed the charts of all patients who had undergone Baerveldt implantation with mitomycin-C between January 1993 and March 1995. Success was defined before data collection as an intraocular pressure (IOP) between 5 and 21 mm Hg, with or without medications. The success rate was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier actuarial method. RESULTS: Twenty-nine patients were identified. The mean preoperative IOP was 33.6 mm Hg, with an average of 2.0 antiglaucoma medications. The probability of success at 6 and 12 months for patients who received mitomycin-C during Baerveldt implantation was 82.4% and 73.3%, respectively. Choroidal effusion with a flat anterior chamber (10.3%), corneal edema (6.8%), and conjunctival erosion (6.8%) were the most frequent complications. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective series of complicated glaucoma, the implantation of a Baerveldt drainage device with adjunctive mitomycin-C had a satisfactory outcome. The complications encountered and the clinical efficacy were comparable to those of previously reported series in which mitomycin-C was not used.
Resumo:
Aims - To evaluate the outcome of filtering procedures supplemented with mitomycin C in children with glaucoma. Methods - All patients aged 17 or younger with glaucoma who underwent filtering surgery supplemented with mitomycin C at a tertiary care centre (n = 21) during a 5 year interval (1992 and 1996) were included. One eye for each patient was entered into the analysis. The postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP), use of antiglaucoma medications, clinical stability of glaucoma, complications, and visual acuity were retrospectively evaluated. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate the probability of success. Results - At the time of surgery mean age was 5.7 (SD 5.0) years. The most common diagnoses were trabeculodysgenesis (n = 6) and aphakic glaucoma (n = 8). Mean IOP before surgery was 35.7 (10.5) mmHg. Average length of follow up was 18.6 (14.7) months. The probability of having IOP less than 21 mmHg with no antiglaucoma medications and with clinically stable glaucoma 1 year after surgery was 76.9% in phakic eyes (n = 13) and 0% in aphakic eyes (n = 8). A phakic patient with Sturge-Weber's syndrome had choroidal effusion after surgery that resolved spontaneously. In the aphakic group one patient had retinal detachment and another developed an encapsulated bleb. Visual acuity deteriorated in one patient. Conclusion - A guarded filtration procedure with mitomycin C is relatively successful in phakic children with glaucoma, but unsuccessful in aphakic ones.
Resumo:
Purpose: A peripheral iridotomy (PI) is the treatment of choice for pupillary block. In this study we investigated the effect of enlarging the size of a small PI on the anterior chamber angle in patients with angle closure using ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM). Patients and Methods: Patients who had been treated with laser peripheral iridotomy for angle closure and were identified to have a small patent PI (<100 µm) with still appositionally closed anterior chamber angle were selected prospectively. The anterior chamber angle was assessed using UBM. The angle opening distance 500 µm from the scleral spur (AOD500) as well as the anterior and posterior chamber depth (ACD and PCD) 1000 µm from the scleral spur was measured. In addition, the ACD/PCD ratio was calculated. Afterwards, the PI was enlarged using an Nd: YAG laser and the UBM measurements were repeated as described above. Results: Six eyes of six patients were examined. After the enlargement of the PI the average AOD500 increased from 109 µm (±36) to 147 µm (±40) (p
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate and compare the outcome of functioning filtration surgery followed by cataract surgery with posterior intraocular lens implantation by both phacoemulsification and extracapsular cataract extraction (ECCE) techniques in glaucomatous eyes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated the clinical course of 77 eyes (68 patients) that after successful trabeculectomy, underwent cataract surgery by either phacoemulsification or ECCE techniques. We determined the frequency of partial and absolute failure following cataract surgery by either phacoemulsification or ECCE in eyes with functioning trabeculectomies. Partial failure of intraocular pressure (IOP), control after cataract extraction was defined as the need for an increased number of antiglaucoma medications or argon laser trabeculoplasty to maintain IOP =21mm Hg. Complete failure of IOP control after cataract surgery was defined as an IOP >21 mm Hg on at least two consecutive measurements one or more weeks apart or the performance of additional filtration surgery. Failure rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier actuarial method. Failure rates between phacoemulsification and ECCE subgroups were compared using the log rank test. RESULTS: The probability of partial failure by the third postoperative year after cataract surgery was 39.5% in the phacoemulsification subgroup and 37.3% in the ECCE subgroup. This small difference is not statistically significant (P = 0.48). The probability of complete failure by the fourth postoperative year after cataract surgery was 12.0% in the phacoemulsification subgroup and 12.5% in the ECCE subgroup. This difference is also not statistically significant (P = 0.77). At the 6-month follow-up visit, visual acuity of both groups improved one or more lines in 87.0% of patients, and worsened one or more lines in 3.9% of patients. Sixty-one percent achieved visual acuity of 20/40 or better. The most frequent complication was posterior capsular opacification requiring laser capsulotomy that occurred in 31.2% of patients. CONCLUSION: Cataract extraction by either phacoemulsification or ECCE following trabeculectomy surgery may be associated with a partial loss of the previously functioning filter and the need for more antiglaucoma medications to control IOP.
Resumo:
Purpose To evaluate the efficacy and safety of intraoperative mitomycin C (MMC) in eyes undergoing Ahmed Glaucoma Valve implantation. Design Randomized controlled clinical trial. Participants Sixty patients with refractory glaucoma. Intervention Sixty eyes of 60 patients with refractory glaucoma were randomized to receive intraoperative MMC (0.5 mg/ml for 5 minutes) (n = 34) or balanced salt solution (n = 26) during Ahmed Glaucoma Valve implantation. Main outcome measures Surgical success was defined according to 2 different criteria: (1) postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) between 6 and 21 mmHg, with or without antiglaucoma medications, and (2) IOP reduction of at least 30% relative to preoperative values. Eyes requiring additional glaucoma surgery, developing phthisis, or showing loss of light perception were classified as failures. Success rates in both groups were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and the log rank test. Other outcome measures were mean IOP, number of glaucoma medications, and complications. Results After a mean follow-up of 12.3 months, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a probability of success of 59% at 18 months for the MMC group and 61% for the control group when the first criterion for success was used (IOP between 6 and 21 mmHg). When an IOP reduction of at least 30% was used as the criterion to define success, the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated a probability of success at 18 months of 62% for the MMC group and 67% for the control group. There were no significant differences in survival rates between the 2 groups with either criterion (P = 0.75 and P = 0.37, respectively). After 15 days postoperatively, the mean IOP did not significantly differ for both MMC and control eyes. Mean numbers of postoperative antiglaucoma medications were similar in MMC-treated eyes and controls. There was no significant difference between the incidences of postoperative complications in both groups. Conclusion Mitomycin C did not increase the short- or intermediate-term success rates of Ahmed Glaucoma Valve implantation. © 2004 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.