Does the UK Local Finance Improvement Trust (Lift) Initiative Improve Risk Management in Public-Private Procurement?

The UK government introduced the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and, latterly, the Local Improvement Finance Trust (LIFT) in an attempt to improve public service provision. As a variant of PFI, LIFT seeks to create a framework for the effective provision of primary care facilities. Like conventional PFI procurement, LIFT projects involve long-term contracts, complex multi-party interactions and thus create various risks to public sector clients. This paper investigates the advantages and disadvantages of LIFT with a focus on how this approach facilitates or impedes risk management from the public sector client perspective. Our paper concludes that LIFT has a potential for creating additional problems, including the further reduction of public sector control, conflicts of interest, the inappropriate use of enabling funds, and higher than market rental costs affecting the uptake of space in the buildings by local health care providers. However, there is also evidence that LIFT has facilitated new investment and that Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) have themselves started addressing some of the weaknesses of this procurement format through the bundling of projects and other forms of regional co-operation.

Oral rehabilitation for partially dentate elders: a qualitative analysis

Aims: This study aimed to gain insight into patient’s perceptions of natural tooth loss and explored their experiences of oral rehabilitation according to a functionally orientated approach (SDA) and Removable Partial Dentures (RPD).
Study Design: For this qualitative study, a purposive sample of 15 partially dentate older patients
were recruited from Cork Dental School and Hospital. These patients had previously participated in a randomised controlled clinical trial (RCT) where they were provided with either SDA treatment using adhesive bridgework or provided with Cobalt Chromium framework RPDs. In- depth interviews were undertaken and thematic analysis was utilised to interpret the data.
Results: The findings of this study indicated strong satisfaction with SDA treatment. Patients referred to the ease in which they adapted to the adhesive prostheses as they were “lightweight”, “neat” and “fixed”. Irrespective of treatment option, patients indicated that they felt
their new prostheses were durable and an improvement on previous treatments. Most patients indicated that, previous to the RCT, they had not attended a general dentist for a number of years and only then for acute issues. They had concerns that treatment which was provided to them as part of the RCT would not be available to them in primary care. Interestingly, although they do not want their condition to dis-improve, if their prostheses failed they stated that they would not seek alternative treatment but would revert back
to adopting previous coping mechanisms.
Conclusion: This study illustrates that partially dentate older patients were very satisfied with oral rehabilitation according to a functionally orientated approach. Unfortunately they did not believe that this treatment would currently be made available to them in a primary care setting.

Six-year follow-up of the SPHERE RCT: secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice.

Objective: To determine the long-term effectiveness of a complex intervention in primary care aimed at improving outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease.

Design: A 6-year follow-up of a cluster randomised controlled trial, which found after 18 months that both total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were significantly reduced in intervention practices (8% absolute reduction).

Setting: 48 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease at baseline in the original trial.

Intervention: The original intervention consisted of tailored practice and patient plans; training sessions for practitioners in medication prescribing and behavioural change; and regular patient recall system. Control practices provided usual care. Following the intervention period, all supports from the research team to intervention practices ceased.

Outcome measures: Primary outcome: hospital admissions, all cause and cardiovascular; secondary outcomes: mortality; blood pressure and cholesterol control.

Results: At 6-year follow-up, data were collected from practice records of 696 patients (77%). For those who had died, we censored their data at the point of death and cause of death was established. There were no significant differences between the intervention and control practices in either total (OR 0.83 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.28)) or cardiovascular hospital admissions (OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.65)). We confirmed mortality status of 886 of the original 903 patients (98%). There were no significant differences in mortality (15% in intervention and 16% in control) or in the proportions of patients above target control for systolic blood pressure or total cholesterol.

Conclusions: Initial significant differences in the numbers of total and cardiovascular hospital admissions were not maintained at 6 years and no differences were found in mortality or blood pressure and cholesterol control. Policymakers need to continue to assess the effectiveness of previously efficacious programmes.

Trial registration number: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

Potentially inappropriate prescribing in two populations with differing socio-economic profiles: a cross-sectional database study using the PROMPT criteria

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to establish the prevalence of potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) in middle-aged adults (45-64 years) in two populations with differing socio-economic profiles, and to investigate factors associated with PIP, using the PROMPT (PRescribing Optimally in Middle-aged People's Treatments) criteria.METHODS: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted using 2012 data from the Enhanced Prescribing Database (EPD), covering the full population in Northern Ireland and the Health Services Executive Primary Care Reimbursement Service (HSE-PCRS) database, covering the most socio-economically deprived third of the population in this age group in the Republic of Ireland. The prevalence for each PROMPT criterion and overall prevalence of PIP were calculated. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between PIP and gender, age group and polypharmacy.RESULTS: This study included 441,925 patients from the EPD and 309,748 patients from the HSE-PCRS database. Polypharmacy was common in both datasets (46.7 % in the HSE-PCRS and 20.3 % in the EPD). The prevalence of PIP was 42.9 % (95%CI 42.7, 43.1) in the HSE-PCRS and 21.1 % (95%CI 21.0, 21.2) in the EPD. Age group, female gender and polypharmacy were significantly associated with PIP in both populations (p < 0.05) and polypharmacy had the strongest association.CONCLUSIONS: PIP is common amongst middle-aged people with the risk of PIP increasing with polypharmacy. Differences in the prevalence of polypharmacy and PIP between the two populations may relate to heterogeneity in healthcare services and different socio-economic profiles, with higher rates of multimorbidity and associated polypharmacy in more deprived groups.

Systematic review of interventions to improve the psychological well-being of general practitioners

BACKGROUND: The health of doctors who work in primary care is threatened by workforce and workload issues. There is a need to find and appraise ways in which to protect their mental health, including how to achieve the broader, positive outcome of well-being. Our primary outcome was to evaluate systematically the research evidence regarding the effectiveness of interventions designed to improve General Practitioner (GP) well-being across two continua; psychopathology (mental ill-health focus) and 'languishing to flourishing' (positive mental health focus). In addition we explored the extent to which developments in well-being research may be integrated within existing approaches to design an intervention that will promote mental health and prevent mental illness among these doctors.

METHODS: Medline, Embase, Cinahl, PsychINFO, Cochrane Register of Trials and Web of Science were searched from inception to January 2015 for studies where General Practitioners and synonyms were the primary participants. Eligible interventions included mental ill-health prevention strategies (e.g. promotion of early help-seeking) and mental health promotion programmes (e.g. targeting the development of protective factors at individual and organizational levels). A control group was the minimum design requirement for study inclusion and primary outcomes had to be assessed by validated measures of well-being or mental ill-health. Titles and abstracts were assessed independently by two reviewers with 99 % agreement and full papers were appraised critically using validated tools.

RESULTS: Only four studies (with a total of 997 GPs) from 5392 titles met inclusion criteria. The studies reported statistically significant improvement in self-reported mental ill-health. Two interventions used cognitive-behavioural techniques, one was mindfulness-based and one fed-back GHQ scores and self-help information.

CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need for high quality, controlled studies in GP well-being. Research on improving GP well-being is limited by focusing mainly on stressors and not giving systematic attention to the development of positive mental health.

Patterns and predictors of help-seeking contacts with health services and general practitioner detection of suicidality prior to suicide: a cohort analysis of suicides occurring over a two-year period

Background: Contact with primary care and psychiatric services prior to suicide may be considerable, presenting
opportunities for intervention. However, there is scant knowledge on the frequency, nature and determinants of
contact.
Method: Retrospective cohort study-an analysis of deaths recorded as suicide by the Northern Ireland Coroner’s
Office linked with data from General Practice patient records over a 2 year period
Results: Eighty-seven per cent of suicides were in contact with General Practice services in the 12 months before
suicide. The frequency of contact with services was considerable, particularly among patients with a common
mental disorder or substance misuse problems. A diagnosis of psychiatric problems was absent in 40 % of suicides.
Excluding suicide attempts, the main predictors of a noted general practitioner concern for patient suicidality are
male gender, frequency of consultations, diagnosis of mental illness and substance misuse.
Conclusions: Despite widespread and frequent contact, a substantial proportion of suicidal people were
undiagnosed and untreated for mental health problems. General Practitioner alertness to suicidality may be too
narrowly focused.

Rastreio do cancro da mama no concelho de Aveiro: do estudo dos fatores determinantes da adesão às propostas educativas emergentes

O cancro da mama feminino pela sua magnitude merece uma especial atenção ao nível das políticas de saúde. Emerge, pois uma visão abrangente que, por um lado, deve atentar para o encargo que esta representa para qualquer sistema de saúde, pelos custos que acarreta, como também, para a qualidade de vida das mulheres portadoras da mesma. Desta forma, a Liga Portuguesa Contra o Cancro (LPCC) tem desenvolvido, em colaboração com as Administrações Regionais de Saúde (ARS), o Programa de Rastreio do Cancro da Mama (PRCM), o qual apresenta, no Concelho de Aveiro, taxas de adesão na ordem dos 50%, ainda distantes dos 70%, objetivo recomendado pelas guidelines da Comissão Europeia. A não adesão tem sido considerada como um dos principais problemas do sistema de saúde, tanto pelas repercussões ao nível de ganhos em saúde, como também na qualidade de vida e na satisfação dos pacientes com os cuidados de saúde, constituindo-se como um fenómeno multifatorial e multidimensional. É neste sentido que o presente trabalho se propõe identificar os fatores, de cariz individual e do meio envolvente, determinantes da adesão ao PRCM, numa amostra de mulheres residentes no Concelho de Aveiro, com idades compreendidas entre os 45 e os 69 anos e, a partir dos resultados emergentes, propor estratégias de educação em saúde. Como procedimentos metodológicos e, numa primeira fase, entre outubro 2009 e maio 2010 foi aplicado um survey, o qual foi complementado com notas de campo dos entrevistadores a uma amostra não aleatória de 805 mulheres, em dois contextos distintos: no centro de saúde às aderentes à mamografia e, no domicílio, às não aderentes. Numa segunda fase, realizamos duas sessões de Focus Group (FG), num total de 12 elementos, um grupo heterogéneo com enfermeiros, médicos e utentes, e um outro grupo homogéneo, apenas com profissionais de saúde. O tratamento dos dados do survey foi efetuado através de procedimentos estatísticos, com utilização do SPSS® versão 17 e realizadas análises bivariadas (qui-quadrado) e multivariadas (discriminação de função e árvore de decisão através do algoritmo Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector) com o intuito de determinar as diferenças entre os grupos e predizer as variáveis exógenas. No que diz respeito a indicadores sociodemográficos, os resultados mostram que aderem mais, as mulheres com idades <50 anos e ≥ 56 anos, as que vivem em localidades urbanas, as trabalhadoras não qualificadas e as reformadas. As que aderem menos ao PRCM têm idades compreendidas entre os 50-55 anos, vivem nas zonas periurbanas, são licenciadas, apresentam categoria profissional superior ou estão desempregadas. Em relação às restantes variáveis exógenas, aderem ao PRCM, as mulheres que apresentam um Bom Perfil de Conhecimentos (46.6%), enquanto as não aderentes apresentam um Fraco Perfil de Conhecimentos (50.6%), sendo esta relação estatisticamente significativa (X2= 10.260; p=0.006).Cerca de 59% das mulheres aderentes realiza o seu rastreio de forma concordante com as orientações programáticas presentes no PRCM, comparativamente com 41.1% das mulheres que não o faz, verificando-se uma relação de dependência bastante significativa entre as variáveis Perfil de Comportamentos e adesão(X2= 348.193; p=0.000). Apesar de não existir dependência estatisticamente significativa entre as Motivações e a adesão ao PRCM (X2= 0.199; p=0.656), se analisarmos particularmente, os motivos de adesão, algumas inquiridas demonstram preocupação, tanto na deteção precoce da doença, como na hereditariedade. Por outro lado, os motivos de não adesão, também denotam aspetos de nível pessoal como o desleixo com a saúde, o desconhecimento e o esquecimento da marcação. As mulheres que revelam Boa Acessibilidade aos Cuidados de Saúde Primários e um Bom Atendimento dos Prestadores de Cuidados aderem mais ao PRCM, comparativamente com as inquiridas que relatam Fraca Acessibilidade e Atendimento, não aderindo. A partir dos resultados da análise multivariada podemos inferir que as variáveis exógenas estudadas possuem um poder discriminante significativo, sendo que, o Perfil de Comportamentos é a variável que apresenta maior grau de diferenciação entre os grupos das aderentes e não aderentes. Como variáveis explicativas resultantes da árvore de decisão CHAID, permaneceram, o Perfil de Comportamentos (concordantes e não concordantes com as guidelines), os grupos etários (<50 anos, 50-55anos e ≥56anos) e o Atendimento dos prestadores de cuidados de saúde. As mulheres mais novas (<50 anos) com Perfil de comportamentos «concordantes» com as guidelines são as que aderem mais, comparativamente com os outros grupos etários. Por outro lado, as não aderentes necessitam de um «bom» atendimento dos prestadores de cuidados para se tornarem aderentes ao PRCM. Tanto as notas de campo, como a discussão dos FG foram sujeitas a análise de conteúdo segundo as categorias em estudo obtidas na primeira fase e os relatos mostram a importância de fatores de ordem individual e do meio envolvente. No que se refere a aspetos psicossociais, destaca-se a importância das crenças e como fatores ambientais menos facilitadores para a adesão apontam a falta de transportes, a falta de tempo das pessoas e a oferta de recursos, principalmente se existirem radiologistas privados como alternativa ao PRCM. Tal como na primeira fase do estudo, uma das motivações para a adesão é a recomendação dos profissionais de saúde para o PRCM, bem como a marcação de consultas pela enfermeira, que pode ser uma oportunidade de contacto para a sensibilização. Os hábitos de vigilância de saúde, a perceção positiva acerca dos programas de saúde no geral, o acesso à informação pertinente sobre o PRCM e a operacionalização deste no terreno parecem ser fatores determinantes segundo a opinião dos elementos dos FG. O tipo e a regularidade no atendimento por parte dos profissionais de saúde, a relação entre profissional de saúde/paciente, a personalização das intervenções educativas, a divulgação que estes fazem do PRCM junto das suas pacientes, bem como, a organização do modelos de cuidados de saúde das unidades de saúde e a forma como os profissionais se envolvem e tomam a responsabilização por um programa desta natureza são fatores condicionantes da adesão. Se atendermos aos resultados deste estudo, verificamos um envolvimento de fatores que integram múltiplos níveis de intervenção, sendo um desafio para as equipas de saúde que pretendam intervir no âmbito do programa de rastreio do cancro da mama. Com efeito, os resultados também apontam para a combinação de múltiplas estratégias que são transversais a vários programas de promoção da saúde, assumindo, desta forma, uma perspetiva multidimensional e dinâmica que visa, essencialmente, a construção social da saúde e do bem-estar (i.e. responsabilização do cidadão pela sua própria saúde e o seu empowerment).

A telematic platform towards regional connected healthcare

As tecnologias de informação e comunicação na área da saúde não são só um instrumento para a boa gestão de informação, mas antes um fator estratégico para uma prestação de cuidados mais eficiente e segura. As tecnologias de informação são um pilar para que os sistemas de saúde evoluam em direção a um modelo centrado no cidadão, no qual um conjunto abrangente de informação do doente deve estar automaticamente disponível para as equipas que lhe prestam cuidados, independentemente de onde foi gerada (local geográfico ou sistema). Este tipo de utilização segura e agregada da informação clínica é posta em causa pela fragmentação generalizada das implementações de sistemas de informação em saúde. Várias aproximações têm sido propostas para colmatar as limitações decorrentes das chamadas “ilhas de informação” na saúde, desde a centralização total (um sistema único), à utilização de redes descentralizadas de troca de mensagens clínicas. Neste trabalho, propomos a utilização de uma camada de unificação baseada em serviços, através da federação de fontes de informação heterogéneas. Este agregador de informação clínica fornece a base necessária para desenvolver aplicações com uma lógica regional, que demostrámos com a implementação de um sistema de registo de saúde eletrónico virtual. Ao contrário dos métodos baseados em mensagens clínicas ponto-a-ponto, populares na integração de sistemas em saúde, desenvolvemos um middleware segundo os padrões de arquitetura J2EE, no qual a informação federada é expressa como um modelo de objetos, acessível através de interfaces de programação. A arquitetura proposta foi instanciada na Rede Telemática de Saúde, uma plataforma instalada na região de Aveiro que liga oito instituições parceiras (dois hospitais e seis centros de saúde), cobrindo ~350.000 cidadãos, utilizada por ~350 profissionais registados e que permite acesso a mais de 19.000.000 de episódios. Para além da plataforma colaborativa regional para a saúde (RTSys), introduzimos uma segunda linha de investigação, procurando fazer a ponte entre as redes para a prestação de cuidados e as redes para a computação científica. Neste segundo cenário, propomos a utilização dos modelos de computação Grid para viabilizar a utilização e integração massiva de informação biomédica. A arquitetura proposta (não implementada) permite o acesso a infraestruturas de e-Ciência existentes para criar repositórios de informação clínica para aplicações em saúde.

Processos de cuidar em enfermagem:idosos com hipertenção arterial

Tese de doutoramento, Enfermagem, Universidade de Lisboa, com a participação da Escola Superior de Enfermagem, 2014

Captura-recaptura como método epidemiológico a aplicarà esclerose múltipla

Tese de Doutoramento, Neurologia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Psychological impact of diagnostic exams

Introduction: Anxiety is a common problem in primary care and specialty medical settings. Treating an anxious patient takes more time and adds stress to staff. Unrecognized anxiety may lead to exam repetition, and impedance of exam performance. Objective: The aim of the study was to examine the anxiety levels of patients who are to undergo diagnostic exams related to cancer diagnostic: PET/CT and mammography. Methods: Two hundred and thirty two patients who undergo PET/CT and one hundred thirteen women who undergo mammography filled out one questionnaire after the procedure to determine their concerns, expectations and perceptions of anxiety. Results: Our results show that the main causes of anxiety in patients who are having a PET/CT is the fear of the procedure itself and fear of the results. Patients who suffered from greater anxiety were those who were scanned during the initial stage of an oncological disease. On the other hand, the diagnostic is the main cause of anxiety in women who are requiring a mammography. 28% of the women reported having experienced pain or intense pain. Conclusions: The performance of diagnostic exams related to cancer diagnostic like a PET/CT and a mammography are important and statistically generators of anxiety. Patients are often poorly informed and present with a range of anxieties that may ultimately affect examination quality. These results provide expertise that can be used in the development of future training programs to integrate post-graduate courses of health professionals.

Performing PET/CT studies: do they create anxiety?

Introduction: Anxiety is a common problem in primary care and specialty medical settings. Treating an anxious patient takes more time and adds stress to staff. Unrecognised anxiety may lead to exam repetition, image artifacts and hinder the scan performance. Reducing patient anxiety at the onset is probably the most useful means of minimizing artifactual FDG uptake, both fat brown and skeletal muscle uptake, as well patient movement and claustrophobia. The aim of the study was to examine the effects of information giving on the anxiety levels of patients who are to undergo a PET/CT and whether the patient experience is enhanced with the creation of a guideline. Methodology: Two hundred and thirty two patients were given two questionnaires before and after the procedure to determine their prior knowledge, concerns, expectations and experiences about the study. Verbal information was given by one of the technologists after the completion of the first questionnaire. Results: Our results show that the main causes of anxiety in patients who are having a PET/CT is the fear of the procedure itself, and fear of the results. The patients who suffered from greater anxiety were those who were scanned during the initial stage of a disease. No significant differences were found between the anxiety levels pre procedural and post procedural. Findings with regard to satisfaction show us that the amount of information given before the procedure does not change the anxiety levels and therefore, does not influence patient satisfaction. Conclusions: The performance of a PET/CT scan is an important and statistically generator of anxiety. PET/CT patients are often poorly informed and present with a range of anxieties that may ultimately affect examination quality. The creation of a guideline may reduce the stress of not knowing what will happen, the anxiety created and may increase their satisfaction in the experience of having a PET/CT scan.

Utilização das urgências hospitalares e acesso aos cuidados de saúde primários : o impacto da implementação das USF na procura dos serviços de urgência : estudo preliminar

RESUMO - A sobrelotação das urgências resultante da utilização inadequada tem como consequências a diminuição na qualidade dos cuidados. As causas da utilização inadequada são várias. Entre elas, a utilização dos Cuidados de saúde Primários merece uma atenção particular. De facto, as barreiras no acesso aos cuidados de saúde primários estão associadas com uma maior inadequação. Assim, ter um prestador regular, acessível, que presta cuidados contínuos e regulares está associado com uma menor utilização inadequada dos csp. Contudo, é necessário ter em conta as características dos utilizadores de forma a desenvolver estratégias que permitam a prestação de cuidados acessíveis. Em Portugal, foi implementada em 2006 uma Reforma dos CSP cuja face mais visíveis são as USF, que deverão prestar cuidados personalizados, garantido a acessibilidade, globalidade e continuidade dos mesmos. Assim, da revisão da literatura e existindo uma associação entre a utilização inadequada das urgências observou-se a variação das urgências hospitalares entre 2005 (ano anterior à implementação das USF) e 2008 (últimos dados disponibilizados) e o nº de USF implementadas. Ao contrário do expectável, verificou-se haver uma associação positiva entre o nº de USF e o nº de urgências hospitalares. Os hospitais com maior nº de USF tiveram um aumento da utilização das urgências hospitalares, enquanto nos hospitais sem nenhuma USF associada, houve uma diminuição das urgências hospitalares. Contudo, existiram factores que não considerados, como criação da Linha Saúde 24, encerramento dos SAP, dimensão dos hospitais, etc., que poderão ter influenciado os resultados. Os resultados em saúde resultantes da implementação das USF não foram considerados. Assim sugere- se futura investigação. ------------------------------ABSTRACT - Crowded emergency department resulting from inappropriate use may compromise the quality of care . Several causes explain the inadequate use of emergency care. Among them, the association between primary care and inappropriate use of emergency departments is of particular interest. Indeed, studies show that fact, barriers in access to Primary Health Care ( PHC) are associated with more inappropriate use. Therefore having a regular, accessible, continuous, source of care is associated with a decrease in inappropriate use of Emergency department. Though, patient’s preferences have to be considered in order to develop strategies that allow accessible care. In Portugal, a reform of primary care has been launched in 2006, through the implementation of Family Health Units ( FHU) that are responsible for giving personalized, accessible, global and continuous care. A vast literature shows an association between inappropriate use of emergency departments and primary health care access. In the present work we observed the variation in emergency department use between 2005 (previous year to Family Health Units implementation) and 2008 (last available data) and the number of Family Health Units implemented. Contrary to our expectations, results showed a positive association between the number of Health Family Units and emergency department use. The Hospitals with more Health Family Units experienced an increase of emergency department use while hospitals with none Health Family units experienced a decrease of emergency department use. Although there were several factors that could have influenced the results (creation of Health 24 Line, SAP closure, Hospital Dimension, etc) .Health outcomes that result fr

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.