An Empirical Analysis of the Spanish Gas Price Structure

We can say without hesitation that in energy markets a throughout data analysis is crucial when designing sophisticated models that are able to capture most of the critical market drivers. In this study we will attempt to investigate into Spanish natural gas prices structure to improve understanding of the role they play in the determination of electricity prices and decide in the future about price modelling aspects. To further understand the potential for modelling, this study will focus on the nature and characteristics of the different gas price data available. The fact that the existing gas market in Spain does not incorporate enough liquidity of trade makes it even more critical to analyze in detail available gas price data information that in the end will provide relevant information to understand how electricity prices are affected by natural gas markets. In this sense representative Spanish gas prices are typically difficult to explore given the fact that there is not a transparent gas market yet and all the gas imported in the country is negotiated and purchased by private companies at confidential terms.

Electricity price forecasting accounting for renewable energies: optimal combined forecasts

Electricity price forecasting is an interesting problem for all the agents involved in electricity market operation. For instance, every profit maximisation strategy is based on the computation of accurate one-day-ahead forecasts, which is why electricity price forecasting has been a growing field of research in recent years. In addition, the increasing concern about environmental issues has led to a high penetration of renewable energies, particularly wind. In some European countries such as Spain, Germany and Denmark, renewable energy is having a deep impact on the local power markets. In this paper, we propose an optimal model from the perspective of forecasting accuracy, and it consists of a combination of several univariate and multivariate time series methods that account for the amount of energy produced with clean energies, particularly wind and hydro, which are the most relevant renewable energy sources in the Iberian Market. This market is used to illustrate the proposed methodology, as it is one of those markets in which wind power production is more relevant in terms of its percentage of the total demand, but of course our method can be applied to any other liberalised power market. As far as our contribution is concerned, first, the methodology proposed by García-Martos et al(2007 and 2012) is generalised twofold: we allow the incorporation of wind power production and hydro reservoirs, and we do not impose the restriction of using the same model for 24h. A computational experiment and a Design of Experiments (DOE) are performed for this purpose. Then, for those hours in which there are two or more models without statistically significant differences in terms of their forecasting accuracy, a combination of forecasts is proposed by weighting the best models(according to the DOE) and minimising the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE is the most popular accuracy metric for comparing electricity price forecasting models. We construct the combi nation of forecasts by solving several nonlinear optimisation problems that allow computation of the optimal weights for building the combination of forecasts. The results are obtained by a large computational experiment that entails calculating out-of-sample forecasts for every hour in every day in the period from January 2007 to Decem ber 2009. In addition, to reinforce the value of our methodology, we compare our results with those that appear in recent published works in the field. This comparison shows the superiority of our methodology in terms of forecasting accuracy.

Impact of introducing longer and heavier vehicles on regional consumer price index and Spanish road freight transport system

This paper applies an integrated modeling approach to the case of Spain; the approach is based on a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model for assessing the effect of introducing longer and heavier vehicles (LHVs) on the regional consumer price index (CPI) and on the transportation system. The approach strongly supports the concept that changes in transport costs derived from the LHV allowance as well as the economic structure of regions have direct and indirect effects on the economy and on the transportation system. Results show that the introduction of LHVs might reduce prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services in the regions of Spain and would also lead to a reduction in the regional CPI. In addition, the magnitude and extent of changes in the transportation system are estimated by using the commodity-based structure of the approach to identify the effect of traffic changes on traffic flows and on pollutant emissions over the whole network.

Hacia una arquitectura de procesos : transformaciones disciplinares a través de la Computación en los modelos de Alexander, Negroponte y Price

La premisa inicial de la tesis examina cómo las secuelas de Segunda Guerra mundial motivaron una revisión general de la Ciencia y procuraron una nueva relación entre el hombre y su entorno. Matemáticas, Física y Biología gestaron las Ciencias de la Computación como disciplina de convergencia. En un momento de re-definición del objeto científico, una serie de arquitectos vislumbraron la oportunidad para transformar ciertas convenciones disciplinares. Mediante la incorporación de ontologías y procedimientos de cibernética y computación, trazaron un nuevo espacio arquitectónico. Legitimados por un despegue tecnológico incuestionable, desafían los límites de la profesión explorando campos abiertos a nuevos programas y acciones; amplían el dominio natural de la Arquitectura más allá del objeto(terminado) hacia el proceso(abierto). Se da inicio a la tesis describiendo los antecedentes que conducen a ese escenario de cambio. Se anotan aspectos de Teoría de Sistemas, Computación, Biología y de ciertos referentes de Arquitectura con relevancia para esa nuevo planteamiento. En esos antecedentes residen los argumentos para orientar la disciplina hacia el trabajo con procesos. La linea argumental central del texto aborda la obra de Christopher Alexander, Nicholas Negroponte y Cedric Price a través de una producción teórica y práctica transformada por la computación, y examina la contribución conceptual de cada autor. El análisis comparado de sus modelos se dispone mediante la disección de tres conceptos convergentes: Sistema, Código y Proceso. La discusión crítica se articula por una triangulación entre los autores, donde se identifican comparando por pares las coincidencias y controversias entre ellos. Sirve este procedimiento al propósito de tender un puente conceptual con el escenario arquitectónico actual estimando el impacto de sus propuestas. Se valora su contribución en la deriva del programa cerrado a la especulación , de lo formal a lo informal, de lo único a lo múltiple; del estudio de arquitectura al laboratorio de investigación. Para guiar ese recorrido por la significación de cada autor en el desarrollo digital de la disciplina, se incorporan a la escena dos predicados esenciales; expertos en computación que trabajaron de enlace entre los autores, matizando el significado de sus modelos. El trabajo de Gordon Pask y John Frazer constituye el vehículo de transmisión de los hallazgos de aquellos años, prolonga los caminos iniciados entonces, en la arquitectura de hoy y la que ya se está diseñando para mañana. ABSTRACT The initial premise of the thesis examines how the aftermath of second world war motivated a general revision of science and procure the basis of a new relation between mankind and its environment. Mathematics, Physics, and Biology gave birth to the Computer Sciences as a blend of different knowledge and procedures. In a time when the object of major sciences was being redefined, a few architects saw a promising opportunity for transforming the Architectural convention. By implementing the concepts, ontology and procedures of Cybernetics, Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology, they envisioned a new space for their discipline. In the verge of transgression three prescient architects proposed complete architectural systems through their writings and projects; New systems that challenged the profession exploring open fields through program and action, questioning the culture of conservatism; They shifted architectural endeavor from object to process. The thesis starts describing the scientific and architectural background that lead to that opportunity, annotating aspects of Systems Theory, Computing, Biology and previous Architecture form the process perspective. It then focuses on the Works of Christopher Alexander, Nicholas Negroponte and Cedric Price through their work, and examines each authors conceptual contribution. It proceeds to a critical analysis of their proposals on three key converging aspects: system, architectural encoding and process. Finally, the thesis provides a comparative discussion between the three authors, and unfolds the impact of their work in todays architectural scenario. Their contribution to shift from service to speculation, from formal to informal , from unitary to multiple; from orthodox architecture studio to open laboratories of praxis through research. In order to conclude that triangle of concepts, other contributions come into scene to provide relevant predicates and complete those models. A reference to Gordon Pask and John Frazer is then provided with particular interest in their role as link between those pioneers and todays perspective, pushing the boundaries of both what architecture was and what it could become.

Experimentación radical italiana en torno al night-club. Warhol-MacLuhan-Price y la arquitectura eléctrica de los años 60.

La segunda mitad de los años 60, ese convulso periodo generador de experiencias largamente revisitadas, es testigo también de un curioso fenómeno en Italia que, vinculado al auge de los locales nocturnos en Estados Unidos y a un intenso clima de emancipación social, utiliza estos nuevos “palacios de la diversión” como fuente de inspiración ideológica al ser percibidos entre los jóvenes arquitectos y diseñadores radicales italianos como un laboratorio experimental estilístico y funcional capaz de generar modelos para un nuevo orden social ligado al entretenimiento. La intensidad productiva de estos años da como resultado multitud de propuestas donde la arqui­tectura actúa como catalizadora de una pulsión social que mezcla en el mismo espa­cio la vanguardia cultural y experimental más radical con el fenómeno de masas de la sociedad del espectáculo, permitiendo a la industria del placer ocupar sin complejos una posición clave en el discurso de una nueva generación que traslada intenciona­damente su interés desde la forma construida a la producción de ambientes artificia­les, electrónicamente amplificados, demostrando al mismo tiempo su compromiso con las formas y la lógica de las nuevas tecnologías.

The structure and precision of retinal spike trains

Assessing the reliability of neuronal spike trains is fundamental to an understanding of the neural code. We measured the reproducibility of retinal responses to repeated visual stimuli. In both tiger salamander and rabbit, the retinal ganglion cells responded to random flicker with discrete, brief periods of firing. For any given cell, these firing events covered only a small fraction of the total stimulus time, often less than 5%. Firing events were very reproducible from trial to trial: the timing jitter of individual spikes was as low as 1 msec, and the standard deviation in spike count was often less than 0.5 spikes. Comparing the precision of spike timing to that of the spike count showed that the timing of a firing event conveyed several times more visual information than its spike count. This sparseness and precision were general characteristics of ganglion cell responses, maintained over the broad ensemble of stimulus waveforms produced by random flicker, and over a range of contrasts. Thus, the responses of retinal ganglion cells are not properly described by a firing probability that varies continuously with the stimulus. Instead, these neurons elicit discrete firing events that may be the fundamental coding symbols in retinal spike trains.

Characterization of a high-voltage-activated IA current with a role in spike timing and locomotor pattern generation

Transient A-type K+ channels (IA) in neurons have been implicated in the delay of the spike onset and the decrease in the firing frequency. Here we have characterized biophysically and pharmacologically an IA current in lamprey locomotor network neurons that is activated by suprathreshold depolarization and is specifically blocked by catechol at 100 μM. The biophysical properties of this current are similar to the mammalian Kv3.4 channel. The role of the IA current both in single neuron firing and in locomotor pattern generation was analyzed. The IA current facilitates Na+ channel recovery from inactivation and thus sustains repetitive firing. The role of the IA current in motor pattern generation was examined by applying catechol during fictive locomotion induced by N-methyl-d-aspartate. Blockade of this current increased the locomotor burst frequency and decreased the firing of motoneurons. Although an alternating motor pattern could still be generated, the cycle duration was less regular, with ventral roots bursts failing on some cycles. Our results thus provide insights into the contribution of a high-voltage-activated IA current to the regulation of firing properties and motor coordination in the lamprey spinal cord.

Calcium regulation of a slow post-spike hyperpolarization in vagal afferent neurons

Activation of distinct classes of potassium channels can dramatically affect the frequency and the pattern of neuronal firing. In a subpopulation of vagal afferent neurons (nodose ganglion neurons), the pattern of impulse activity is effectively modulated by a Ca2+-dependent K+ current. This current produces a post-spike hyperpolarization (AHPslow) that plays a critical role in the regulation of membrane excitability and is responsible for spike-frequency accommodation in these neurons. Inhibition of the AHPslow by a number of endogenous autacoids (e.g., histamine, serotonin, prostanoids, and bradykinin) results in an increase in the firing frequency of vagal afferent neurons from <0.1 to >10 Hz. After a single action potential, the AHPslow in nodose neurons displays a slow rise time to peak (0.3–0.5 s) and a long duration (3–15 s). The slow kinetics of the AHPslow are due, in part, to Ca2+ discharge from an intracellular Ca2+-induced Ca2+ release (CICR) pool. Action potential-evoked Ca2+ influx via either L or N type Ca2+ channels triggers CICR. Surprisingly, although L type channels generate 60% of action potential-induced CICR, only Ca2+ influx through N type Ca2+ channels can trigger the CICR-dependent AHPslow. These observations suggest that a close physical proximity exists between endoplasmic reticulum ryanodine receptors and plasma membrane N type Ca2+ channels and AHPslow potassium channels. Such an anatomical relation might be particularly beneficial for modulation of spike-frequency adaptation in vagal afferent neurons.

Specific infection of CD4+ target cells by recombinant rabies virus pseudotypes carrying the HIV-1 envelope spike protein.

A recombinant rabies virus (RV) mutant deficient for the surface spike glycoprotein (G) gene was used to study the incorporation of envelope proteins from HIV-1 expressed from transfected plasmids. A hybrid HIV-1 protein in which the cytoplasmic domain was replaced with that of RV G was incorporated into the virus envelope and rescued the infectivity of the RV mutant. The RV(HIV-1) pseudotype viruses could infect only CD4+ cells, and their infectivity was neutralized specifically by anti-HIV-1 sera. In contrast to the chimeric protein, wild-type HIV-1 envelope protein or mutants with truncated cytoplasmic domains failed to produce pseudotyped particles. This indicates the presence of a specific signal in the RV G cytoplasmic domain, allowing correct incorporation of a spike protein into the envelope of rhabdovirus particles. The possibility of directing the cell tropism of RV by replacement of the RV G with proteins of defined receptor specificity should prove useful for future development of targetable gene delivery vectors.

Price sensitivity to tourism activities: looking for determinant factors

The literature contains evidence that there is a marked heterogeneity in price responses to tourism products, leading to a great variety of tourist sensitivities to price. Thus the role price plays is complex, and a particularly challenging aspect of this complexity is that its effect is not unambiguous, thereby negating the idea that the demand for tourism products and tourist activities can always be regarded as demand for ordinary goods. This article identifies and explains, as a novelty for the tourism industry, price sensitivities to tourism activities individual by individual. The operative formalization uses a mixed logit model to estimate the individual sensitivities to price, and then a regression analysis is applied to detect their determinants. The empirical application finds that motivations, influenced by age, and length of stay with a non-linear effect, are explanatory factors of tourists’ price sensitivity to activities.

Price promotions effects of virtue and vice products

Purpose: This paper aims to propose models that capture the own effect of price promotions of virtue and vice products on sales and cross effects within the subcategory, between subcategories and between periods. The hypotheses assume that, due to reverse consumption self-control, the demand for vice products is more price-sensitive than demand for virtue products, but the demand for vice products is less price-sensitive between periods than demand for virtue products; furthermore, due to the degree of impulse-buying and to licensing, the demand sensitivity of the products of a subcategory and of those of other subcategories varies according to the type of promoted product (vice or virtue). Design/methodology/approach: The methodology is based on different econometrical models that estimate the total net effect of price promotions of virtue and vice products on sales. Findings: The results show a greater own effect for price promotions of vice products than for virtue products. However, the complementary sales effect between subcategories for virtue products facilitates greater expansion of the subcategory in virtue products than in vice products. Originality/value: Although price promotions of virtue products (light) and vice products (regular) have proliferated in recent years, researchers have only estimated their own sales effect. Alternatively, the paper contributes by considering own and cross effects.