A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Vitamin D intake, sun exposure and 25-hydroxy vitamin D status in Peritoneal dialysis (PD) and Haemodialysis (HD) patients

Inadequate vitamin D levels have been linked to bone disease but more recently have been associated with wider health implications. Limited studies suggest a high prevalence of Vitamin D deficiency in dialysis patients, although evidence is lacking on whether this is due to dietary restrictions, limited mobility and time outdoors or a combination of these. The aim of this study was to assess the contributions of diet, supplements and sunlight exposure to serum Vitamin D (25(OH)D) levels in dialysis patients. Cross-sectional data were obtained from 30 PD (Mean±SD age 56.9±16.2 y; n=13 male) and 22 HD (Mean±SD age 65.4±14.0 y; n=18 male) patients between 2009 and 2010. Serum 25(OH)D was measured and oral vitamin D intake estimated through a food-frequency-questionnaire and quantifying inactive supplementation. Sunlight exposure was assessed using a validated questionnaire. Prevalence of inadequate/insufficient vitamin D differed between dialysis modality (31% and 43% insufficient (<50nmol/L); 4% and 34% deficient (<25nmol/L) in HD and PD patients respectively (p=0.002)). In HD patients, there was a significant correlation between diet plus supplemental vitamin D intake and 25(OH)D (ρ=0.84, p<0.001). Results suggest a higher frequency of 25(OH)D inadequacy/deficiency in PD compared to HD patients. No other relationships between intake, sun exposure and 25(OH)D were seen. This could reflect limitations of the study design or the importance of other factors such as age, ethnicity and sun protection as interactions in the analysis. Understanding these factors is important given Vitamin D���s emerging status as a biomarker of systemic ill health.

Couture Academy Exhibition : a curation of the story behind a couture design

Research background: The general public is predominantly unaware of the complexities and skills involved in the fashion supply chain (design, manufacture and retail) of couture/bespoke garments. As cited in McMahon and Morley (2011) “While a high price tag is widely accepted as a necessary element of luxury products (Fionda &Moore, 2009) this must be accompanied by a story that gives the items intrinsic as well as extrinsic value (Keller, 2009). Research question: Is it possible to simulate a fashion couture studio environment in a non-traditional public space in order to produce and promote the processes involved in couture designs; each with their own story and aligned to the aesthetic of six collaborating high profile couture fashion retailers? Research contribution: The Couture Academy project allowed the team to curate the story behind the couture design and supply chain process. It was an experimental, curated, ‘hot-house’ fashion design project undertaken in real time to create one-off couture garments, inspired by key seasonal fashion trends as determined by leading Westfield retailers. The project was industry based, with Westfield Chermside as the launch pad for six QUT fashion students to experiment with design nuances aligned to renowned national fashion industry retailers; Cue, Dissh, Kitten D'Amour, Mombasa and Pink Mint. Industry mentors were assigned to each student designer, in order to heighten the design challenge. The exhibition consisted of a pop-up couture workshop based at Westfield Chermside. A complete fashion studio (sewing machines, pattern-cutting tables and mannequins) was set up for a seven day period in the foyer of the shopping centre with the public watching as the design process unfolded in real-time. The final design outcomes were paraded at the Southbank Precinct to a prominent industry and media panel, with the winner receiving a $2000 prize to fund a research trip to an international fashion capital of their choice. Research significance: This curated fashion project was funded by Westfield Group Australia. "It was the most successful season launch Westfield Chermside has ever had from both an average volume for exposure perspective, and in terms of the level of engagement with retailers and shoppers," said Laura Walls, Westfield Public Relations Consultant. Significant media coverage was generated; including three full pages of editorial in Brisbane’s Sunday Mail, with an estimated publicity value of $95,000. And public exposure through the live project/exhibition was estimated at 7,000 people over the 7 days.

Comparing the availability, price, variety and quality of fruits and vegetables across retail outlets and by area level socioeconomic position

Abstract Objective: To explore whether area-level socioeconomic position or the form of retail stream (conventional versus farmers’ market) are associated with differences in the price, availability, variety and quality of a range of fresh fruit and vegetables. Design: A multi-site cross-sectional pilot study of farmers’ markets, supermarkets and independent fruit and vegetable retailers. Each was surveyed to assess the price, availability, variety and quality of 15 fruit and 18 vegetable items. Setting: Retail outlets were located in South-East Queensland. Subjects: Fifteen retail outlets were surveyed (five of each retail stream). Results: Average basket prices were not significantly different across the socioeconomic spectrum however prices in low socioeconomic areas were cheapest. Availability, variety, and quality did not differ across levels of socioeconomic position however the areas with the most socioeconomic disadvantage scored poorest for quality and variety. Supermarkets had significantly better fruit and vegetable availability than farmers’ markets however price, variety and quality scores were not different across retail streams. Results demonstrate a trend to fruit and vegetable prices being more expensive at farmers’ markets, with the price of the Fruit basket being significantly greater at the organic farmer’s market compared with the non-organic farmers’ markets. Conclusions: Neither area-level socioeconomic position nor the form of retail stream was significantly associated with differences in the availability, price, variety and quality of fruit and vegetables, except for availability which was higher in supermarkets than farmers’ markets. Further research is needed to determine what role farmers’ markets can play in affecting fruit and vegetable intake.

Collective dynamics and control of a 3-D small-world network with time delays

The paper presents a detailed analysis on the collective dynamics and delayed state feedback control of a three-dimensional delayed small-world network. The trivial equilibrium of the model is first investigated, showing that the uncontrolled model exhibits complicated unbounded behavior. Then three control strategies, namely a position feedback control, a velocity feedback control, and a hybrid control combined velocity with acceleration feedback, are then introduced to stabilize this unstable system. It is shown in these three control schemes that only the hybrid control can easily stabilize the 3-D network system. And with properly chosen delay and gain in the delayed feedback path, the hybrid controlled model may have stable equilibrium, or periodic solutions resulting from the Hopf bifurcation, or complex stranger attractor from the period-doubling bifurcation. Moreover, the direction of Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcation periodic solutions are analyzed. The results are further extended to any "d" dimensional network. It shows that to stabilize a "d" dimensional delayed small-world network, at least a "d – 1" order completed differential feedback is needed. This work provides a constructive suggestion for the high dimensional delayed systems.

Comparison of robust criteria for D-optimal design

This study compared the performance of a local and three robust optimality criteria in terms of the standard error for a one-parameter and a two-parameter nonlinear model with uncertainty in the parameter values. The designs were also compared in conditions where there was misspecification in the prior parameter distribution. The impact of different correlation between parameters on the optimal design was examined in the two-parameter model. The designs and standard errors were solved analytically whenever possible and numerically otherwise.

Prenatal Vitamin D deficiency induces an early and more severe experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis in the second generation

In a previous study, we demonstrated that mouse adult F(1) offspring, exposed to a vitamin d deficiency during pregnancy, developed a less severe and delayed Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis (EAE), when compared with control offspring. We then wondered whether a similar response was observed in the subsequent generation. To answer this question, we assessed F(2) females whose F(1) parents (males or females) were vitamin d-deprived when developing in the uterus of F(0) females. Unexpectedly, we observed that the vitamin d deficiency affecting the F(0) pregnant mice induced a precocious and more severe EAE in the F(2) generation. This paradoxical finding led us to assess its implications for the epidemiology of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) in humans. Using the REFGENSEP database for MS trios (the patient and his/her parents), we collected the parents' dates of birth and assessed a potential season of birth effect that could potentially be indicative of the vitamin d status of the pregnant grandmothers. A trend for a reduced number of births in the Fall for the parents of MS patients was observed but statistical significance was not reached. Further well powered studies are warranted to validate the latter finding.

Dutch tilt, Aussie auteur : the films of Rolf de Heer. 2nd ed.

Dutch-born Australian director, Rolf de Heer, is Australia's most successful and unpredictable film-maker, with thirteen feature films of widely varying style and genre to his name. Arising from the author's 2006 - 2009 PhD research at the Queensland University of Technology (which focussed on the psychoanalytic use of sound in his films), and a fixed term Research Fellowship at the National Film and Sound Archive in Canberra, Australia, "Dutch Tilt, Aussie Auteur: The Films of Rolf de Heer" was first published in 2009 by VDM in Saarbrucken, Germany. This second edition addresses de Heer's additional film-making since 2009, and as with the first edition, is an auteur analysis of the thirteen feature films he has directed (and mostly written and produced). The book explores the theoretical instability of the concept of auteurism and concludes that there is a signature world view to be detected in his oeuvre, and that de Heer (quite possibly unconsciously) promotes unlikely protagonists who are non-hyper masculine, child-like and nurturing, as opposed to the typical Hollywood hero who is macho, exploitative and hyper masculine. Rolf de Heer was born in Heemskerk, Holland, in 1951 and migrated to Australia with his family in 1959. He spent seven years working for the ABC before gaining entry to Australia's Film, Television and Radio School, where he studied Producing and Directing. From his debut feature film after graduating, the children's story about the restoration of a Tiger Moth biplane, "Tail of a Tiger" (1984) to his breakout cult sensation "Bad Boy Bubby" (1993) which "tore Venice [Film Festival] apart" to the first Aboriginal Australian language film "Ten Canoes" (2006) which scooped the pool at the Australian Film Institute awards, de Heer has consistently proven himself unpredictable. This analysis of his widely disparate films, however, suggests that Australia's most innovative film-maker has a signature pre-occupation with giving a voice to marginalised, non-hyper masculine protagonists. Demonstrating a propensity to write and direct in a European-like style, his 'Dutch tilt' is very much not Hollywood, but is nevertheless representative of a typically Aussie world-view.

Brokering innovation to better leverage R&D investment

What is the contribution of innovation brokers in leveraging research and development (R&D) investment to enhance industry-wide capabilities? The case of the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation (CRC CI) is considered in the context of motivating supply chain firms to improve their organizational capabilities in order to acquire, assimilate, transfer and exploit R&D outcomes to their advantage, and to create broader industry and national benefits. A previous audit and analysis has shown an increase in business R&D investment since 2001. The role of the CRC CI in contributing to growth in the absorptive capacity of the Australian construction industry as a whole is illustrated through two programmes: digital modelling building information modelling (BIM) and construction site safety. Numerous positive outcomes in productivity, quality, improved safety and competitiveness were achieved between 2001 and 2009.

Recruitment and results of a pilot trial of vitamin D supplementation in the general population of Australia

Context: The benefits of high serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] are unclear. Trials are needed to establish an appropriate evidence base. Objective: We plan to conduct a large-scale trial of vitamin D supplementation for the reduction of cancer incidence and overall mortality and report here the methods and results of a pilot trial established to inform its design. Design: Pilot D-Health was a randomized trial carried out in a general community setting with 12 months intervention and follow-up. Participants: Participants were 60- to 84-yr-old residents of one of the four eastern Australian states who did not have any vitamin D-related disorders and who were not taking more than 400 IU supplementary vitamin D per day. A total of 644 participants were randomized, and 615 completed the study (two persons withdrew because of nonserious adverse events). Interventions: The interventions were monthly doses of placebo or 30,000 or 60,000 IU vitamin D3. Main Outcomes: The main outcomes were the recruitment rate and changes in serum 25(OH)D. Results: Ten percent of those approached were recruited. At baseline, the mean 25(OH)D was 42 nmol/liter in all three study arms. The mean change in 25(OH)D in the placebo group was 0.12 nmol/liter, compared with changes of 22 and 36 nmol/liter in the 30,000- and 60,000-IU groups, respectively. Conclusions: The D-Health pilot has shown that a large trial is feasible in Australia and that a dose of 2000 IU/d will be needed to ensure that a large proportion of the population reaches the target serum 25(OH)D level. Copyright © 2012 by The Endocrine Society.

Regulation of emissions under the carbon pricing mechanism : a case study of Australia’s coal fired electricity sector

On 1 July 2012, the carbon pricing mechanism commenced in Australia with the aim of reducing emissions and encouraging investment in clean energy. A substantial proportion of Australia’s emissions are attributable to the coal-fired electricity generation sector. This article examines whether the carbon pricing mechanism will effectively facilitate emissions reduction from the coal-fired electricity sector. Aspects analysed include the legislative constraints placed on the carbon price, the carbon pollution cap and provisions specific to the coal-fired electricity sector, such as transitional assistance. It is concluded that, in practice, the carbon pricing mechanism may not be sufficient in itself to achieve significant reduction in emissions from coal-fired electricity generation or significant investment in clean energy, and that a suite of additional regulatory measures, such as the federal Renewable Energy Target, should operate in conjunction with the mechanism.

An in-vitro 3-D cell culture model for studying pathomechanisms in AMD

Purpose To develop a novel 3-D cell culture model with the view to studying the pathomechanisms underlying the development of age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Our central hypothesis is that the silk structural protein fibroin used in conjunction with cultured human cells can be used to mimic the structural relationships between the RPE and choriocapillaris in health and disease. Methods Co-cultures of human RPE cells (ARPE-19 cells grown in Miller’s medium) and microvascular endothelial cells (HMEC-1 cells grown in endothelial culture medium) were established on opposing sides of a synthetic Bruch’s membrane (3 microns thick) constructed from B mori silk fibroin. Cell attachment was facilitated by pre-coating the fibroin membrane with vitronectin (for ARPE-19 cells) and gelatin (for HMEC-1 cells) respectively. The effects of tropoelastin on attachment of ARPE-19 cells was also examined. Barrier function was examined by measurement of trans-epithelial resistance (TER) using a voltohmmeter (EVOM-2). The phagocytic activity of the synthetic RPE was tested using vitronectin-coated microspheres (2 micron diameter FluoSpheres). In some cultures, membrane defects were created by puncturing within a 24 G needle. The architecture of the synthetic tissue before and after wounding was examined by confocal microscopy after staining for ZO-1 and F-actin. Results The RPE layer of the 3D model developed a cobblestoned morphology (validated by staining for ZO-1 and F-actin), displayed barrier function (validated by measurement of TER) and demonstrated cytoplasmic uptake of vitronectin-coated microspheres. Attachment of ARPE-19 cells to fibroin was unaffected by tropoelastin. Microvascular endothelial cells attached well to the gelatin-coated surface of the fibroin membrane and remained physically separated from the overlaying RPE layer. The fibroin membranes were amenable to puncturing without collapse thus providing the opportunity to study transmembrane migration of the endothelial cells. Conclusions Synthetic Bruch’s membranes constructed from silk fibroin, vitronectin and gelatin, support the co-cultivation of RPE cells and microvascular endothelial cells. The resulting RPE layer displays functions similar to that of native RPE and the entire tri-layered structure displays potential to be used as an in vitro model of choroidal neovascularization.