Estimation following selection of the largest of two normal means

This paper considers the problem of estimation when one of a number of populations, assumed normal with known common variance, is selected on the basis of it having the largest observed mean. Conditional on selection of the population, the observed mean is a biased estimate of the true mean. This problem arises in the analysis of clinical trials in which selection is made between a number of experimental treatments that are compared with each other either with or without an additional control treatment. Attempts to obtain approximately unbiased estimates in this setting have been proposed by Shen [2001. An improved method of evaluating drug effect in a multiple dose clinical trial. Statist. Medicine 20, 1913–1929] and Stallard and Todd [2005. Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 135, 402–419]. This paper explores the problem in the simple setting in which two experimental treatments are compared in a single analysis. It is shown that in this case the estimate of Stallard and Todd is the maximum-likelihood estimate (m.l.e.), and this is compared with the estimate proposed by Shen. In particular, it is shown that the m.l.e. has infinite expectation whatever the true value of the mean being estimated. We show that there is no conditionally unbiased estimator, and propose a new family of approximately conditionally unbiased estimators, comparing these with the estimators suggested by Shen.

Ant semiochemicals limit apterous aphid dispersal

Some organisms can manipulate the nervous systems of others or alter their physiology in order to obtain benefit. Ants are known to limit alate aphid dispersal by physically removing wings and also through chemical manipulation of the alate developmental pathway. This results in reduced dispersal and higher local densities of aphids, which benefit ants in terms of increased honeydew and prey availability. Here, we show that the walking movement of mutualistic apterous aphids is also reduced by ant semiochemicals. Aphids walk slower and their dispersal from an unsuitable patch is hampered by ants. If aphid walking dispersal has evolved as a means of natural enemy escape, then ant chemicals may act as a signal indicating protection; hence, reduced dispersal could be adaptive for aphids. If, however, dispersal is primarily a means to reduce competition or to maintain persistent metapopulations, then manipulation by ants could be detrimental. Such manipulation strategies, common in host-parasite and predator-prey interactions, may be more common in mutualism than expected.

Characterization of the phytochemicals and antioxidant properties of extracts from Teaw (Cratoxylum formosum Dyer)

The leaves of the Thai vegetable, Teaw (Cratoxylum formosum Dyer) were extracted with ethanol to provide an extract that had antioxidant properties. The composition of the extract was studied by high-performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector, and by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry. The main antioxidant component (peak 1) was chlorogenic acid, which was present at 60% of the extract. Three minor components were present at 7%, 3% and 2%, and other components that were present at lower concentrations were also observed. Treatment of the Teaw extract with 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical (DPPH center dot) caused a similar reduction in peak area of 55.2-58.1% for chlorogenic acid and the three minor components, indicating that these components had common structural features. Component 2 was identified as dicaffeoylquinic acid, and compounds 3 and 4 were identified as ferulic acid derivatives. The radical-scavenging activity of the Teaw extract was compared with alpha-tocopherol, BHT and chlorogenic acid, using the DPPH center dot and 2,2'-azinobis (3-ethylbenzothialozinesulfonic acid) radical cation (ABTS(center dot+)) assays. The Teaw extract scavenged both free radicals more strongly than did a-tocopherol and BHT, and the activity of the extract was consistent with the concentration of chlorogenic acid that was present, confirming that this component is a major contributor to the antioxidant activity. The acute toxicity of the Teaw leaf extract was investigated in mice, and it was found that the LD50 of the extract was > 32 g/kg. Consequently, this plant is a promising source of a natural food antioxidant. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of vitamin E and fish oil inclusion in broiler diets on meat fatty acid composition and on the flavour of a composite sample of breast meat

BACKGROUND: Enriching poultry meat with long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFA) can increase low population intakes of LC n-3 PUFA, but fishy taints can spoil reheated meat. This experiment determined the effect of different amounts of LC n-3 PUFA and vitamin E in the broiler diet on the fatty acid composition and sensory characteristics of the breast meat. Ross 308 broilers (120) were randomly allocated to one of five treatments from 21 to 42 days of age. Diets contained (g kg−1) 0, 9 or 18 LC n-3 PUFA (0LC, 9LC, 18LC), and 100, 150 or 200 mg LD--tocopherol acetate kg−1 (E). The five diets were 0LC100E, 9LC100E, 18LC100E, 18LC150E, 18LC200E, with four pens per diet, except 18LC100E (eight pens). Breast meat was analysed for fatty acids (uncooked) and sensory analysis by R-index (reheated). RESULTS: LC n-3 PUFA content (mg kg−1 meat) was 514 (0LC100E) and 2236 (9LC and 18LC). Compared with 0LC100E, meat from 18LC100E and 18LC150E tasted significantly different, while 23% of panellists detected fishy taints in 9LC100E and 18LC200E. CONCLUSION: Chicken meat can be enriched with nutritionally meaningful amounts of LC n-3 PUFA, but > 100 mg dl--tocopherol acetate kg−1 broiler diet is needed to protect reheated meat from oxidative deterioration. Copyright © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry

Output envelope adjustment for an environmental fuzzy logic controller

A two-level fuzzy logic controller for use in air-conditioning systems is outlined in this paper. At the first level a simplified controller is produced from expert knowledge and envelope adjustment is introduced, while the second level provides a means for adapting this controller to different working spaces. The mechanism for adaption is easily implemented and can be used in real time. A series of simulations is presented to illustrate the proposed schema.

Intact automatic imitation of human and robot actions in autism spectrum disorders

The existence of a specialized imitation module in humans is hotly debated. Studies suggesting a specific imitation impairment in individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) support a modular view. However, the voluntary imitation tasks used in these studies (which require socio-cognitive abilities in addition to imitation for successful performance) cannot support claims of a specific impairment. Accordingly, an automatic imitation paradigm (a ‘cleaner’ measure of imitative ability) was used to assess the imitative ability of 16 adults with ASD and 16 non-autistic matched control participants. Participants performed a prespecified hand action in response to observed hand actions performed either by a human or a robotic hand. On compatible trials the stimulus and response actions matched, while on incompatible trials the two actions did not match. Replicating previous findings, the Control group showed an automatic imitation effect: responses on compatible trials were faster than those on incompatible trials. This effect was greater when responses were made to human than to robotic actions (‘animacy bias’). The ASD group also showed an automatic imitation effect and a larger animacy bias than the Control group. We discuss these findings with reference to the literature on imitation in ASD and theories of imitation.

Space heating and hot water demand analysis of dwellings connected to district heating scheme in UK

To achieve CO2 emissions reductions the UK Building Regulations require developers of new residential buildings to calculate expected CO2 emissions arising from their energy consumption using a methodology such as Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP 2005) or, more recently SAP 2009. SAP encompasses all domestic heat consumption and a limited proportion of the electricity consumption. However, these calculations are rarely verified with real energy consumption and related CO2 emissions. This paper presents the results of an analysis based on weekly head demand data for more than 200 individual flats. The data is collected from recently built residential development connected to a district heating network. A methodology for separating out the domestic hot water use (DHW) and space heating demand (SH) has been developed and compares measured values to the demand calculated using SAP 2005 and 2009 methodologies. The analysis shows also the variance in DHW and SH consumption between both size of the flats and tenure (privately owned or housing association). Evaluation of the space heating consumption includes also an estimation of the heating degree day (HDD) base temperature for each block of flats and its comparison to the average base temperature calculated using the SAP 2005 methodology.

Attic pottery in early Classical Thessaly. A case study from Achaia Phthiotis

This paper attributes a previously unnoticed Attic black-figured lekythos kept in the Archaeological Museum of Volos to the Pholos Group (ca. 470 BC) and discusses its findspot in the peripheral Thessalian district of Achaia Phthiotis. Beyond an art-historical appreciation of the hastily-drawn chariot scene on this lekythos and a discussion of stylistic parallels, which include a lekythos in Prague, it is argued that such lekythoi were socially important for their shape and small size that made them easily transportable. The assumed scarcity of Attic pottery in Thessaly can be questioned given that a considerable amount of Attic pottery from Thessalian locations is mentioned only in passing or remains unpublished in museum storage. Small late black-figured lekythoi predominate amongst Attic pottery shapes in Thessaly. The popularity of such lekythoi can become indicative of human mobility across the landscape and the consumption of imported (grave) goods by social groups other than elites.

The division of labour under uncertainty

Reductions in the division of labour are a significant feature of modern developments in work organisation. It has been recognised that a reduced division of labour can have the advantages of job enrichment and lower coordination costs. In this paper it is shown how advantages from a lesser division of labour can stem from the flow of work between different sets of resources where the work rates of individual production stages are subject to uncertainties. Both process and project-based work are considered. Implications for the boundaries of the firm and for innovation processes are noted.

Cannabidivarin is anticonvulsant in mouse and rat in vitro and in seizure models

Summary Background and purpose: Phytocannabinoids in Cannabis sativa have diverse pharmacological targets extending beyond cannabinoid receptors and several exert notable anticonvulsant effects. For the first time, we investigated the anticonvulsant profile of the phytocannabinoid cannabidivarin (CBDV) in vitro and in in vivo seizure models. Experimental approach: The effect of CBDV (1-100μM) on epileptiform local field potentials (LFPs) induced in rat hippocampal brain slices by 4-AP application or Mg2+-free conditions was assessed by in vitro multi-electrode array recordings. Additionally, the anticonvulsant profile of CBDV (50-200 mg kg-1) in vivo was investigated in four rodent seizure models: maximal electroshock (mES) and audiogenic seizures in mice, and pentylenetetrazole (PTZ) and pilocarpine-induced seizures in rat. CBDV effects in combination with commonly-used antiepileptic drugs were investigated in rat seizures. Finally, the motor side effect profile of CBDV was investigated using static beam and gripstrength assays. Key results: CDBV significantly attenuated status epilepticus-like epileptiform LFPs induced by 4-AP and Mg2+-free conditions. CBDV had significant anticonvulsant effects in mES (≥100 mg kg-1), audiogenic (≥50 mg kg-1) and PTZ-induced seizures (≥100 mg kg-1). CBDV alone had no effect against pilocarpine-induced seizures, but significantly attenuated these seizures when administered with valproate or phenobarbital at 200 mg kg-1 CBDV. CBDV had no effect on motor function. Conclusions and Implications: These results indicate that CBDV is an effective anticonvulsant across a broad range of seizure models, does not significantly affect normal motor function and therefore merits further investigation in chronic epilepsy models to justify human trials.