Predicting relationships between speed and accuracy of targetting movements is important

While explaining a large proportion of any variance, accounts of the speed and accuracy of targetting movements use techniques (e.g., log transforms) that typically reduce variability before ''explaining'' the data. Therefore the predictive power of such accounts are important. We consider whether Plamondon's model can account for kinematics of targetting movements of clinical populations.

Very early prediction of response to HCV treatment with PEG-IFN-alfa-2a and ribavirin in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients

The objective of this study was to find very early viral kinetic markers to predict nonresponse to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy in a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients. Twenty-six patients (15 HCV genotype-1 and 11 genotype-3) were treated with a 48-week regimen of peginterferon-alfa-2a (PEG-IFN) (180 mu g/week) and weight-based ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). Samples were collected at baseline; 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 h; days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 22, 29, 43 and 57 then weekly and monthly. Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients (27%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Nadir HCV RNA levels were observed 1.6 +/- 0.3 days after initiation of therapy, followed by a 0.3- to 12.9-fold viral rebound until the administration of the second dose of PEG-IFN, which were not associated with SVR or HCV genotype. A viral decline < 1.19 log for genotype-1 and < 0.97 log for genotype-3, 2 days after starting therapy, had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for SVR. The day 2 virological response had a similar positive predictive value for SVR as a rapid virological response at week 4. In addition, a second-phase viral decline slope (i.e., measured from day 2 to 29) < 0.3 log/week had a NPV = 100% for SVR. We conclude that first-phase viral decline at day 2 and second-phase viral decline slope (< 0.3 log/week) are excellent predictors of nonresponse. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of nonresponse in patients with HCV and HIV.

Pharmacodynamics of PEG-IFN-alpha-2a in HIV/HCV co-infected patients: Implications for treatment outcomes

Background & Aims: The pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of pegylated-interferon-alpha-2a (PEG-IFN) have not been described in HCV/HIV co-infected patients. We sought to estimate the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of PEG-IFN and determine whether these parameters predict treatment outcome. Methods: Twenty-six HCV/human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-co-infected patients were treated with a 48-week regimen of PEG-IFN (180 mu g/week) plus ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). HCV RNA and PEG-IFN concentrations were obtained from samples collected until week 12. A modeling framework that includes pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters was developed. Results: Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). PEG-IFN concentrations at day 8 were similar to steady-state levels (p = 0.15) and overall pharmacokinetic parameters were similar in SVRs and non-SVRs. The maximum PEG-IFN effectiveness during the first PEG-IFN dose and the HCV-infected cell loss rate (delta), were significantly higher in SVRs compared to non-SVRs (median 95% vs. 86% [p = 0.013], 0.27 vs. 0.11 day(-1) [p = 0.006], respectively). Patients infected with HCV genotype 1 had a significantly lower average first-week PEG-IFN effectiveness (median 70% vs. 88% [p = 0.043]), however, 4- to 12-week PEG-IFN effectiveness was not significantly different compared to those with genotype 3 (p = 0.114). Genotype 1 had a significantly lower delta compared to genotype 3 (median 0.14 vs. 0.23 day(-1) [p = 0.021]). The PEG-IFN concentration that decreased HCV production by 50% (EC(50)) was lower in genotype 3 compared to genotype 1 (median 1.3 vs. 3.4 [p = 0.034]). Conclusions: Both the HCV-infected cell loss rate (delta) and the maximum effectiveness of the first dose of PEG-IFN-alpha-2a characterised HIV co-infected patients and were highly predictive of SVR. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of response in patients with HCV and HIV. (C) 2010 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mitochondrial DNA depletion and its correlation with TFAM, TFB1M, TFB2M and POLG in human diffusely infiltrating astrocytomas

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) alterations and their clinical and pathological implications have been analyzed in several human malignancies. A marked decrease in mtDNA copy number along with the increase in malignancy was observed in diffusely infiltrating astrocytomas (24 WHO grade II, 18 grade III, and 78 grade IV or GBM) compared to non-neoplastic brain tissues, being mostly depleted in GBM. Although high relative gene expression levels of mtDNA replication regulators (mitochondrial polymerase catalytic subunit (POLG), transcription factors A (TFAM), B1 (TFB1M) and B2 (TFB2M)) were detected, it cannot successfully revert the mtDNA depletion observed in our samples. On the other hand, a strong correlation among the expression levels of mitochondrial transcription factors corroborates with the TFAM role in the direct control of TFB1M and TFB2M during initiation of mtDNA replication. POLG expression was related to decreased mtDNA copy number, and its overexpression associated with TFAM expression levels also have an impact on long-term survival among GBM patients, interpreted as a potential predictive factor for better prognosis. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. and Mitochondria Research Society. All rights reserved.

The impact of gender, age and hearing loss on tinnitus severity

Tinnitus is a symptom present in approximately 15% of the world population. Most patients are between 40 and 80 years of age; the prevalence above 60 reaches 33%. About 20% have moderate to severe impact in the quality of life but the factors associated with the tinnitus annoyance are not completely known. Aim: The objective of this study is to evaluate the relationship between age, gender and hearing loss on tinnitus annoyance. Materials and methods: 68 patients were evaluated at the tinnitus center at our hospital, from March 2007 to march 2008, with a detailed interview, complete otolaryngological examination, the Portuguese version of the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory and pure tone audiometry. Results: Age varied from 24 to 83 (mean=59); the mean THI value was 39 (females: 36; males: 44). THI grades were: slight: 32.3%; mild: 19.1%; moderate: 20.6%; severe: 13.2% and catastrophic: 14.7%. No significant correlation was found between gender (p=0.30), age (p=0.77) hearing loss (p>0.05 for all averages analyzed) and tinnitus severity. Conclusion: Gender, age and hearing loss do not influence tinnitus annoyance, using the THI.

Risk Factors for Visual Field Progression in Treated Glaucoma

Objective: To determine intraocular pressure (IOP)-dependent and IOP-independent variables associated with visual field (VF) progression in treated glaucoma. Design: Retrospective cohort of the Glaucoma Progression Study. Methods: Consecutive, treated glaucoma patients with repeatable VF loss who had 8 or more VF examinations of either eye, using the Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm (24-2 SITA-Standard, Humphrey Field Analyzer II; Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc, Dublin, California), during the period between January 1999 and September 2009 were included. Visual field progression was evaluated using automated pointwise linear regression. Evaluated data included age, sex, race, central corneal thickness, baseline VF mean deviation, mean follow-up IOP, peak IOP, IOP fluctuation, a detected disc hemorrhage, and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy. Results: We selected 587 eyes of 587 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.9 [13.0] years). The mean (SD) number of VFs was 11.1 (3.0), spanning a mean (SD) of 6.4 (1.7) years. In the univariable model, older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.19 per decade; P = .01), baseline diagnosis of exfoliation syndrome (OR, 1.79; P = .01), decreased central corneal thickness (OR, 1.38 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.31; P < .01), presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.17; P < .01), and all IOP parameters (mean follow-up, peak, and fluctuation; P < .01) were associated with increased risk of VF progression. In the multivariable model, peak IOP (OR, 1.13; P < .01), thinner central corneal thickness (OR, 1.45 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.59; P < .01), and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.38; P < .01) were associated with VF progression. Conclusions: IOP-dependent and IOP-independent risk factors affect disease progression in treated glaucoma. Peak IOP is a better predictor of progression than is IOP mean or fluctuation.

Vascular endothelial growth factor and beta-human chorionic gonadotropin are associated with trophoblastic invasion into the tubal wall in ectopic pregnancy

Objective: To assess the association between the depth of trophoblastic penetration into the tubal wall with serum concentrations of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and beta-hCG and to assess its predictive value. Design: Prospective study. Setting: Tertiary care university hospital. Patient(s): Thirty patients with ampullary pregnancy undergoing salpingectomy were analyzed. Intervention(s): Trophoblastic invasion was histologically classified as stage I when limited to the tubal mucosa, stage II when extending to the muscle layer, and stage III in the case of complete tubal wall infiltration. Main Outcome Measure(s): The relation between depth of trophoblastic infiltration into the tubal wall with VEGF and beta-hCG serum concentrations on the day of surgery. Result(s): An association between the depth of trophoblastic invasion and maternal serum concentrations of VEGF and beta-hCG was observed. VEGF levels of 297.2 pg/mL showed 100.0% sensitivity and 90.0% specificity for stage I, and levels of 440.1 pg/mL showed 81.8% sensitivity and 88.8% specificity for stage III. Beta-hCG levels of 2590.0 mIU/mL showed 88.9% sensitivity and 80.0% specificity for stage I, and levels of 10,827.0 mUI/mL showed 72.7% sensitivity and 88.9% specificity for stage III. Conclusion(s): Maternal serum VEGF and beta-hCG concentrations are associated with depth of trophoblastic penetration into the tubal wall. (Fertil Steril (R) 2010;94:1595-600. (C) 2010 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

Bowel dilation as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis

Objectives This study was designed to evaluate bowel diameter as a predictor of adverse outcome in isolated fetal gastroschisis Methods Retrospective study involving 94 singleton pregnancies Ultrasound measurements of herniated bowel transverse diameter (BTD) were performed up to 3 weeks before delivery Adverse outcome was intrauterine/neonatal death and/or bowel complications Results Last BTD was recorded at 35 6 +/- 1 6 weeks and mean interval to delivery was 6 2 +/- 5 0 days Intrauterine/neonatal death occurred in 10 (10 6%) cases, bowel complications were observed in 8 (8 5%) BTD >= 15, >= 20, >= 25, and >= 30 mm were found in 87, 46, 13, and 4% of pregnancies with a favorable outcome. respectively BTD >= 25 mm sensitivity was 38%. and positive and negative predictive values were 38 and 87% For BTD >= 30 mm. the values were 19, 50, and 85% Observed/expected BTD ROC curve showed an area of 0 67, best cut-off value at 1 39, prediction values were similar to those for BTD >= 25 mm Bowel dilatation was also significantly associated with lower rate of primary surgical closure. longer period to full oral feeding, and prolonged hospital stay Conclusions Bowel dilatation demonstrated up to 3 weeks before delivery is a predictor of intestinal complications and is associated with lower late of primary surgical closure, longer period to achieve full oral feeding. and hospital stay Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Transvaginal ultrasonography with bowel preparation is able to predict the number of lesions and rectosigmoid layers affected in cases of deep endometriosis, defining surgical strategy

Successful surgical treatment of deep bowel endometriosis depends on obtaining detailed information about the lesions, prior to the procedure. The objective of this study was to determine the capability of transvaginal ultrasonography with bowel preparation (TVUS-BP) to predict the presence of one or more rectosigmoid nodules and the deepest bowel layer affected by the disease. A prospective study of 194 patients with clinical and TVUS-BP suspected deep endometriosis submitted to videolaparoscopy. Image data were compared with surgical and histological results. With respect to bowel nodule detection and presence of at least two rectosigmoid lesions, TVUS-BP had a sensitivity of 97 and 81%, specificity 100 and 99%, positive predictive value (PPV) 100 and 93% and negative predictive value (NPV) 98 and 96%, respectively. Regarding diagnosis of infiltration of the submucosal/mucosal layer, TVUS-BP had a sensitivity of 83%, specificity 94%, PPV 77%, NPV 96%. These findings show that TVUS-BP is an adequate exam for evaluating the presence of one or more rectosigmoid nodules and the deepest layer affected in deep infiltrating bowel endometriosis, confirming the importance of this technique for defining the most appropriate surgical strategy to be implemented.

Accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for diagnosis and preoperative assessment of deeply infiltrating endometriosis

Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings relative to surgical presence of deeply infiltrating endometriosis (DIE). Methods: This prospective study included 92 women with clinical suspicion of DIE. The MR images were compared with laparoscopy and pathology findings. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of MRI for diagnosis of DIE were assessed. Results: DIE was confirmed at histopathology in 77 of the 92 patients (83.7%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of MRI to diagnose DIE at each of the specific sites evaluated were as follows: retrocervical space (89.4%, 92.3%, 96.7%, 77.4%, 90.2%); rectosigmoid (86.0%, 92.9%, 93.5%, 84.8%, 89.1%); bladder (23.1%, 100%,100%, 88.8%, 89.1%); ureters (50.0%, 100%, 95.5%, 95.7%); and vagina (72.7%, 100%, 100%, 96.4%, 96.7%). Conclusion: MRI demonstrates high accuracy in diagnosing DIE in the retrocervical region, rectosigmoid. bladder, ureters, and vagina. (C) 2009 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Lid. All rights reserved.

Ultrasound detection rate of single umbilical artery in the first trimester of pregnancy

Objective To determine accuracy of first trimester detection of single umbilical artery (SUA). Methods The number of vessels in the umbilical cord was examined in a prospective cohort of 779 singleton, low-risk, unselected pregnancies, in the first (11-13 weeks) and second (17-24 weeks) trimesters, using both power and color Doppler and after delivery, by placental histopathologic exam. Concordance between first and second trimester findings to postnatal diagnoses was compared by calculating kappa coefficients. Results There was medium concordance between the findings in the first trimester and the postnatal diagnoses (kappa = 0.52) and high concordance (kappa = 0.89) for the second trimester scan. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the findings in the first trimester were 57.1, 98.9, 50.0 and 99.2% and for the second trimester were 86.6, 99.9, 92.9 and 99.7%. Conclusion Sensitivity and positive predictive value of first trimester scan to identify an isolated SUA in a prospective unselected population was poor. Diagnosis of isolated SUA as well as a definitive judgment about the presence of associated anomalies would still require a scan in the second trimester. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ipsilateral Lung Volumes Assessed by Three-Dimensional Ultrasonography in Fetuses with Isolated Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia

Objective: To evaluate the precision of three-dimensional ultrasonography (3DUS) in estimating the ipsilateral lung volume and the potential of this measurement to predict neonatal death in congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods: Between January 2002 and December 2004, the ipsilateral lung volumes were assessed by 3DUS using the technique of rotation of the multiplan imaging in 39 fetuses with CDH. The observed/ expected ipsilateral lung volume ratios (o/e-IpsiFLVR) were compared to the lung/head ratios (LHR) and to the observed/ expected total fetal lung volume ratios (o/e-TotFLVR) as well as to postnatal death. Results: Ipsilateral lung volumes (median 0.12, range 0.01-0.66) were more reduced than the total lung volumes (median 0.52, range 0.11-0.95, p < 0.001) in CDH. The bias and precision of 3DUS in estimating ipsilateral lung volumes were -0.61 and 0.99 cm 3, respectively, with absolute limits of agreement from -2.56 to +1.33 cm(3). The o/e-IpsiFLVR was lower in neonatal death cases (median 0.09, range 0.01-0.46) than in survivals (median 0.18, range 0.01-0.66), but this difference was not statistically significance (p > 0.05). The sensitivity, speci-ficity, (positive and negative) predictive values and accuracy of o/e-IpsiFLVR in predicting neonatal death was 52.6% (10/19), 83.3% (10/12), 83.3% (10/12), 52.6% (10/19) and 64.5% (20/31), respectively. Conclusion: Although the ipsilateral lung volume can be measured by 3DUS, it cannot be used to predict neonatal death when considering it alone. However, it is important to measure it to calculate the total fetal lung volumes as the o/e-TotFLVR has the best efficacy in predicting neonatal death in isolated CDH. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolic differences between male and female adolescents with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, as detected by ultrasound

Background: Age, developmental stage and gender are risk factors for paediatric non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Aims: The aim of this study was to identify differences in clinical or laboratory variables between sexes in adolescents with NAFLD. Methodology: Ninety obese adolescents including 36 males and 54 females were evaluated. Inclusion criteria for this study were a Body Mass Index above the 95th percentile, as set forth by the National Center for Health Statistics, and an age of 10-19 years. A clinical and laboratory evaluation was conducted for all adolescents. Results: The variables that were found to be predictive of NAFLD in adolescence were visceral fat, Aminotransferase, Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase, triglyderides, cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol. We also observed that cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol variables were influenced by gender, i.e. there was a significant statistical difference in the values of these variables between male and female adolescents. With regard to cholesterol serum concentrations, the risk was 6.99 times greater for females, compared with 1.2 times for males; and for LDL-cholesterol serum concentrations the risk was 8.15 times greater for females, compared with and 1.26 times for males. Conclusion: Female adolescents with NAFLD showed a significantly different metabolic behaviour than males.

Individual risk prediction of nodal and distant metastasis for patients with typical bronchial carcinoid tumors

Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.