Expert system aid for design of overload line distribution networks

The use of expert system techniques in power distribution system design is examined. The selection and siting of equipment on overhead line networks is chosen for investigation as the use of equipment such as auto-reclosers, etc., represents a substantial investment and has a significant effect on the reliability of the system. Through past experience with both equipment and network operations, most decisions in selection and siting of this equipment are made intuitively, following certain general guidelines or rules of thumb. This heuristic nature of the problem lends itself to solution using an expert system approach. A prototype has been developed and is currently under evaluation in the industry. Results so far have demonstrated both the feasibility and benefits of the expert system as a design aid.

Measurement and prediction of the effect of students activities on airborne particulate concentration in a classroom.

Epidemiological studies have shown links between human exposure to indoor airborne particles and adverse health affects. Several recent studies have also reported that the classroom environment has an impact on students’ health and performance. In this study particle concentration in a university classroom is assessed experimentally for different occupancy periods. The mass concentrations of different particle size ranges (0.3 – 20 µm), and the three particulate matter fractions (PM10, PM2.5, and PM1) were measured simultaneously in a classroom with different occupancy periods including occupied and unoccupied periods in the University of Reading, UK, during the winter period of 2010. The results showed that students’ presence is a significant factor affecting particles concentration for the fractions above PM1 in the measured range of 0.3 to 20 µm. The resuspension of the three PM fractions was also determined in the study.

Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet

The consistency of ensemble forecasts from three global medium-range prediction systems with the observed transition behaviour of a three-cluster model of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is examined. The three clusters consist of a mid jet cluster taken to represent an undisturbed jet and south and north jet clusters representing southward and northward shifts of the jet. The ensemble forecasts span a period of three extended winters (October–February) from October 2007–February 2010. The mean probabilities of transitions between the clusters calculated from the ensemble forecasts are compared with those calculated from a 23-extended-winter climatology taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-Year Re-analysis (ERA40) dataset. No evidence of a drift with increasing lead time of the ensemble forecast transition probabilities towards values inconsistent with the 23-extended-winter climatology is found. The ensemble forecasts of transition probabilities are found to have positive Brier Skill at 15 day lead times. It is found that for the three-extended-winter forecast set, probabilistic forecasts initialized in the north jet cluster are generally less skilful than those initialized in the other clusters. This is consistent with the shorter persistence time-scale of the north jet cluster observed in the ERA40 23-extended-winter climatology. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Prediction of the thermal performance of horizontal-coupled ground source heat exchangers

The thermal performance of a horizontal-coupled ground-source heat pump system has been assessed both experimentally and numerically in a UK climate. A numerical simulation of thermal behaviour of the horizontal-coupled heat exchanger for combinations of different ambient air temperatures, wind speeds, refrigerant temperature and soil thermal properties was studied using a validated 2D transient model. The specific heat extraction by the heat exchanger increased with ambient temperature and soil thermal conductivity, however it decreased with increasing refrigerant temperature. The effect of wind speed was negligible.

Influence of curd cutting programme and stirring speed on the prediction of syneresis indices in cheese-making using NIR light backscatter

An NIR reflectance sensor, with a large field of view and a fibre-optic connection to a spectrometer for measuring light backscatter at 980 nm, was used to monitor the syneresis process online during cheese-making with the goal of predicting syneresis indices (curd moisture content, yield of whey and fat losses to whey) over a range of curd cutting programmes and stirring speeds. A series of trials were carried out in an 11 L cheese vat using recombined whole milk. A factorial experimental design consisting of three curd stirring speeds and three cutting programmes, was undertaken. Milk was coagulated under constant conditions and the casein gel was cut when the elastic modulus reached 35 Pa. Among the syneresis indices investigated, the most accurate and most parsimonious multivariate model developed was for predicting yield of whey involving three terms, namely light backscatter, milk fat content and cutting intensity (R2 = 0.83, SEy = 6.13 g/100 g), while the best simple model also predicted this syneresis index using the light backscatter alone (R2 = 0.80, SEy = 6.53 g/100 g). In this model the main predictor was the light backscatter response from the NIR light back scatter sensor. The sensor also predicted curd moisture with a similar accuracy.

Detection and identification of species-specific bacteria associated with synanthropic mites

Internal bacterial communities of synanthropic mites Acarus siro, Dermatophagoides farinae, Lepidoglyphus destructor, and Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Acari: Astigmata) were analyzed by culturing and culture-independent approaches from specimens obtained from laboratory colonies. Homogenates of surface-sterilized mites were used for cultivation on non-selective agar and DNA extraction. Isolated bacteria were identified by sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. PCR amplified 16S rRNA genes were analyzed by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis (T-RFLP) and cloning sequencing. Fluorescence in situ hybridization using universal bacterial probes was used for direct bacterial localization. T-RFLP analysis of 16S rRNA gene revealed distinct species-specific bacterial communities. The results were further confirmed by cloning and sequencing (284 clones). L. destructor and D. farinae showed more diverse communities then A. siro and T. putrescentiae. In the cultivated part of the community, the mean CFUs from four mite species ranged from 5.2 × 102 to 1.4 × 103 per mite. D. farinae had significantly higher CFUs than the other species. Bacteria were located in the digestive and reproductive tract, parenchymatical tissue, and in bacteriocytes. Among the clones, Bartonella-like bacteria occurring in A. siro and T. putresecentiae represented a distinct group related to Bartonellaceae and to Bartonella-like symbionts of ants. The clones of high similarity to Xenorhabdus cabanillasii were found in L. destructor and D. farinae, and one clone related to Photorhabdus temperata in A. siro. Members of Sphingobacteriales cloned from D. farinae and A. siro clustered with the sequences of “Candidatus Cardinium hertigii” and as a separate novel cluster.

Binaural prediction of speech intelligibility in reverberant rooms with multiple noise sources

When speech is in competition with interfering sources in rooms, monaural indicators of intelligibility fail to take account of the listener’s abilities to separate target speech from interfering sounds using the binaural system. In order to incorporate these segregation abilities and their susceptibility to reverberation, Lavandier and Culling [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 127, 387–399 (2010)] proposed a model which combines effects of better-ear listening and binaural unmasking. A computationally efficient version of this model is evaluated here under more realistic conditions that include head shadow, multiple stationary noise sources, and real-room acoustics. Three experiments are presented in which speech reception thresholds were measured in the presence of one to three interferers using real-room listening over headphones, simulated by convolving anechoic stimuli with binaural room impulse-responses measured with dummy-head transducers in five rooms. Without fitting any parameter of the model, there was close correspondence between measured and predicted differences in threshold across all tested conditions. The model’s components of better-ear listening and binaural unmasking were validated both in isolation and in combination. The computational efficiency of this prediction method allows the generation of complex “intelligibility maps” from room designs. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America

TIGGE: comparison of the prediction of Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems.

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical cyclones by nine different ensemble prediction systems(EPSs), archived as part of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), has recently been explored using a cyclone tracking approach. This paper provides a continuation of this work, extending the analysis to the Southern Hemisphere (SH). While the EPSs have larger error in all cyclone properties in the SH, the relative performance of the different EPSs remains broadly consistent between the two hemispheres. Some interesting differences are also shown. The Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) EPS has a significantly lower level of performance in the SH compared to the NH. Previous NH results showed that the Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos (CPTEC) EPS underpredicts cyclone intensity. The results of this current study show that this bias is significantly larger in the SH. The CPTEC EPS also has very little spread in both hemispheres. As with the NH results, cyclone propagation speed is underpredicted by all the EPSs in the SH. To investigate this further, the bias was also computed for theECMWFhigh-resolution deterministic forecast. The bias was significantly smaller than the lower resolution ECMWF EPS.

Collision prediction of a moving object within a virtual world

This paper provides a solution for predicting moving/moving and moving/static collisions of objects within a virtual environment. Feasible prediction in real-time virtual worlds can be obtained by encompassing moving objects within a sphere and static objects within a convex polygon. Fast solutions are then attainable by describing the movement of objects parametrically in time as a polynomial.

Prediction of novel and analogous folds using fragment assembly and fold recognition

A number of new and newly improved methods for predicting protein structure developed by the Jones–University College London group were used to make predictions for the CASP6 experiment. Structures were predicted with a combination of fold recognition methods (mGenTHREADER, nFOLD, and THREADER) and a substantially enhanced version of FRAGFOLD, our fragment assembly method. Attempts at automatic domain parsing were made using DomPred and DomSSEA, which are based on a secondary structure parsing algorithm and additionally for DomPred, a simple local sequence alignment scoring function. Disorder prediction was carried out using a new SVM-based version of DISOPRED. Attempts were also made at domain docking and “microdomain” folding in order to build complete chain models for some targets.

The DISOPRED server for the prediction of protein disorder

Dynamically disordered regions appear to be relatively abundant in eukaryotic proteomes. The DISOPRED server allows users to submit a protein sequence, and returns a probability estimate of each residue in the sequence being disordered. The results are sent in both plain text and graphical formats, and the server can also supply predictions of secondary structure to provide further structural information.