Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

Examining Moderators of the Hindsight Bias in the Context of Civil Legal Decision-Making: Counterfactuals, Causal Proximity, and Self-Referencing

The current research sought to clarify the diverging relationships between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias observed in the literature thus far. In a non-legal context, Roese and Olson (1996) found a positive relationship between counterfactuals and hindsight bias, such that counterfactual mutations that undid the outcome also increased participants’ ratings of the outcome’s a priori likelihood. Further, they determined that this relationship is mediated by causal attributions about the counterfactually mutated antecedent event. Conversely, in the context of a civil lawsuit, Robbennolt and Sobus (1997) found that the relationship between counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias is negative. The current research sought to resolve the conflicting findings in the literature within a legal context. In Experiment One, the manipulation of the normality of the defendant’s target behavior, designed to manipulate participants’ counterfactual thoughts about said behavior, did moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge on mock jurors’ judgments of the foreseeability of that outcome as well as their negligence verdicts. Although I predicted that counterfactual thinking would increase, or exacerbate, the hindsight bias, as found by Roese and Olson (1996), my results provided some support for Robbenolt and Sobus’s (1997) finding that counterfactual thinking decreases the hindsight bias. Behavior normality did not moderate the hindsight effect of outcome knowledge in Experiment Two, nor did causal proximity in Experiment Three. Additionally, my hypothesis that self-referencing may be an effective hindsight debiasing technique received little support across the three experiments. Although both the self-referencing instructions and self-report measure consistently decreased mock jurors’ likelihood of finding the defendant negligent, and self-referencing instructions decreased their foreseeability ratings in studies two and three, the self-referencing manipulation did not interact with outcome knowledge to moderate a hindsight bias effect on either foreseeability or negligence judgments. The consistent pattern of results across the three experiments, however, suggests that self-referencing may be an effective technique in reducing the likelihood of negligence verdicts.

Examination of Personality, Social and Cognitive Factors on the Co-Occurrence of Health Risk Behaviors among Multi-Problem Youth: The Utility of An Integrative Framework

Research has identified a number of putative risk factors that places adolescents at incrementally higher risk for involvement in alcohol and other drug (AOD) use and sexual risk behaviors (SRBs). Such factors include personality characteristics such as sensation-seeking, cognitive factors such as positive expectancies and inhibition conflict as well as peer norm processes. The current study was guided by a conceptual perspective that support the notion that an integrative framework that includes multi-level factors has significant explanatory value for understanding processes associated with the co-occurrence of AOD use and sexual risk behavior outcomes. This study evaluated simultaneously the mediating role of AOD-sex related expectancies and inhibition conflict on antecedents of AOD use and SRBs including sexual sensation-seeking and peer norms for condom use. The sample was drawn from the Enhancing My Personal Options While Evaluating Risk (EMPOWER: Jonathan Tubman, PI), data set (N = 396; aged 12-18 years). Measures used in the study included Sexual Sensation-Seeking Scale, Inhibition Conflict for Condom Use, Risky Sex Scale. All relevant measures had well-documented psychometric properties. A global assessment of alcohol, drug use and sexual risk behaviors was used. Results demonstrated that AOD-sex related expectancies mediated the influence of sexual sensation-seeking on the co-occurrence of alcohol and other drug use and sexual risk behaviors. The evaluation of the integrative model also revealed that sexual sensation-seeking was positively associated with peer norms for condom use. Also, peer norms predicted inhibition conflict among this sample of multi-problem youth. This dissertation research identified mechanisms of risk and protection associated with the co-occurrence of AOD use and SRBs among a multi-problem sample of adolescents receiving treatment for alcohol or drug use and related problems. This study is informative for adolescent-serving programs that address those individual and contextual characteristics that enhance treatment efficacy and effectiveness among adolescents receiving substance use and related problems services.

Impact of nutrition education on knowledge and eating patterns in HIV-infected individuals

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and impaired or threatened nutritional status seem to be closely related. It is now known that AIDS results in many nutritional disorders including anorexia, vomiting, protein-energy malnutrition (PEM), nutrient deficiencies, and gastrointestinal, renal, and hepatic dysfunction (1-7, 8). Reversibly, nutritional status may also have an impact on the development of AIDS among HIV-infected people. Not all individuals who have tested antibody positive for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) have developed AIDS or have even shown clinical symptoms (9, 10). A poor nutritional status, especially PEM, has a depressing effect on immunity which may predispose an individual to infection (11). It has been proposed that a qualitatively or quantitatively deficient diet could be among the factors precipitating the transition from HIV-positive to AIDS (12, 13). The interrelationship between nutrition and AIDS reveals the importance of having a multidisciplinary health care team approach to treatment (11), including having a registered dietitian on the medical team. With regards to alimentation, the main responsibility of a dietitian is to inform the public concerning sound nutritional practices and encourage healthy food habits (14). In individuals with inadequate nutritional behavior, a positive, long-term change has been seen when nutrition education tailored to specific physiological and emotional needs was provided along with psychological support through counseling (14). This has been the case for patients with various illnesses and may also be true in AIDS patients as well. Nutritional education specifically tailored for each AIDS patient could benefit the patient by improving the quality of life and preventing or minimizing weight loss and malnutrition (15-17). Also, it may influence the progression of the disease by delaying the onset of the most severe symptoms and increasing the efficacy of medical treatment (18, 19). Several studies have contributed to a dietary rationale for nutritional intervention in HIV-infected and AIDS patients (2, 4, 20-25). Prospective, randomized clinical research in AIDS patients have not yet been published to support this dietary rationale; however, isolated case reports show its suitability (3). Furthermore, only nutrition intervention as applied by a medical team in an institution or hospital has been evaluated. Research is lacking concerning the evaluation of nutritional education of either non-institutionalized or hospitalized groups of persons who are managing their own food choice and intake. This study compares nutrition knowledge and food intakes in HIV-infected individuals prior to and following nutrition education. It was anticipated that education would increase the knowledge of nutritional care of AIDS patients and lead to better implementation of nutrition education programs.

Perceived and actual sex differences in attributional style for affiliative behavior

The objectives of this thesis were threefold: (1) to review the concept of attributional style, (2) to demonstrate its applicability to affiliative behavior, and (3) to document the existence of actual and perceived sex differences in attributional style for affiliative behavior. To fulfill the first two objectives the development of attributional theory was traced from the Abramson, Seligman, and Teasdale (1978) presentation of the reformulated learned helplessness model through Weiner's (1979) examination of attributional style as a motivational feature of achievement behavior to the application of attribution theory to affiliative behavior. To fulfill the third objective the evidence detailing the sex differences in achievement and affiliative attributional styles was reviewed within the framework of perceptions of sex appropriate behavior. A study was then designed to assess both actual and perceived affiliative attributional sex differences. The Escovar, Brown, and Rodriguez Attributional Style Questionnaire for Affiliative Behavior was administered to 107 male and female University of Miami and Florida International University students. Each subject answered the questionnaire twice, once for themselves and once as if they were a member of the opposite sex. The results indicated that the EBR-ASQ maintained previous levels of internal consistency and reliability. Analyses performed on the covariate of the order of perspective presentation were negative; all further analyses were performed without a covariate. The data were analyzed using a 2(Sex) X 2(Perspective) X 2(Outcome) factorial, multivariate, repeated measures design with the three attributional dimensions serving as the dependent variable repeated measures. As expected all multivariate tests revealed that each of the three factors was a significant influence over all three of the dependent variables. Of the 21 univariate tests 12 of the main effect and two-way interactions were significant and one approached significance. Examination of the means revealed that of the eight significant main effects six were in the expected direction; of the four significant two-way interactions three were in the expected direction. Although the results were not totally supportive of the hypotheses they did support the thesis that affiliation is the female sex-role appropriate analogue to male achievement behavior.

The utility of an integrated qualitative/quantitative data analytic strategy (IQ-DAS) to evaluate the impact of youth development interventions on positive qualitative change in the life course

This study reports one of the first controlled studies to examine the impact of a school based positive youth development program (Lerner, Fisher, & Weinberg, 2000) on promoting qualitative change in life course experiences as a positive intervention outcome. The study built on a recently proposed relational developmental methodological metanarrative (Overton, 1998) and advances in use of qualitative research methods (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000). The study investigated the use the Life Course Interview (Clausen, 1998) and an integrated qualitative and quantitative data analytic strategy (IQDAS) to provide empirical documentation of the impact the Changing Lives Program on qualitative change in positive identity in a multicultural population of troubled youth in an alternative public high school. The psychosocial life course intervention approach used in this study draws its developmental framework from both psychosocial developmental theory (Erikson, 1968) and life course theory (Elder, 1998) and its intervention strategies from the transformative pedagogy of Freire's (1983/1970). Using the 22 participants in the Intervention Condition and the 10 participants in the Control Condition, RMANOVAs found significantly more positive qualitative change in personal identity for program participants relative to the non-intervention control condition. In addition, the 2X2X2X3 mixed design RMANOVA in which Time (pre, post) was the repeated factor and Condition (Intervention versus Control), Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors, also found significant interactions for the Time by Gender and Time by Ethnicity. Moreover, the directionality of the basic pattern of change was positive for participants of both genders and all three ethnic groups. The pattern of the moderation effects also indicated a marked tendency for participants in the intervention group to characterize their sense of self as more secure and less negative at the end of the their first semester in the intervention, that was stable across both genders and all three ethnicities. The basic differential pattern of an increase in the intervention condition of a positive characterization of sense of self relative to both pre test and relative to the directionality of the movement of the non-intervention controls, was stable across both genders and all three ethnic groups.

Attachment, psychological functioning, and resilience within the street involved youth populations: describing youth who access community agency support

Youth homelessness is defined within the literature as youth who have left their homes and are living independent of parental figures and/or caregivers, have no stable residence or source of income, and lack access to the supports needed to make the challenging transition into adulthood (Canadian Observatory on Homelessness, 2015). Previous research studying homeless (or street-involved) youth has primarily focused on risk factors hindering the development of this population, and has largely ignored resilience, coping, and help-seeking behaviours. The current study examined the attachment styles (both categorically and dimensionally), psychological functioning, resilience, and help-seeking behaviours in street-involved youth of St. John’s, Newfoundland. Face-to face interviews were completed over a four-month period with 63 youth (42 males, 21 females) aged 15-29 (Mage = 20.00), recruited from a local community organization providing outreach services to street-involved youth. Results revealed the disproportionate struggles of the street-involved youth population, and highlighted higher levels of attachment insecurity, psychological distress and lower resilience compared to normative peers. Findings also showed a significant difference in psychological functioning, overall resilience, and emotional reactivity based on individual attachment style. In an exploratory model of help-seeking, a positive relationship was found between overall resilience (defined as a sense of mastery and sense of relatedness) and frequency of community service access. However, contrary to predictions, no relationships were found between frequency of community service access and attachment, psychological functioning, or emotional reactivity. Implications of the present findings in development of interventions for street-involved youth are discussed, in addition to strengths and limitations of the present research, and suggested areas of future inquiry.

Student Independent Projects Environmental Studies 2011: Creating Federal Policies to Support Environmental Education in Canada.

Environmental Education is an essential component of childhood education and can play a vital role in the development of positive environmental attitudes, community involvement and environmental awareness. One of the main challenges faced by Canadian educators is the lack of support and funding to fully engage and participate in Environmental Education programs that are locally available. To better understand the viewpoint and challenges of educators and Environmental Education programs, this paper includes an interview series with three Environmental Education leaders, followed by a discussion section on significant commonalities. Through the research of peer-reviewed literature, federal documents, and environmental networks, this research paper aims to interpret the development and challenges of K-12 environmental education in North America as well as to review the established programs, networks, and resources availble to Canadian educators.

Windscapes shape seabird instantaneous energy costs but adult behavior buffers impact on offspring

Acknowledgements K. Ashbrook, M. Barrueto, K. Elner, A. Hargreaves, S. Jacobs, G. Lancton, M. LeVaillant, E. Grosbellet, A. Moody, A. Ronston, J. Provencher, P. Smith, K. Woo and P. Woodward helped in the field. J. Nakoolak kept us safe from bears. N. Sapir and two anonymous reviewers provided very useful comments on an earlier version of our manuscript. R. Armstrong at the Nunavut Research Institute, M. Mallory at the Canadian Wildlife Service Northern Research Division and C. Eberl at National Wildlife Research Centre in Ottawa provided logistical support. F. Crenner, N. Chatelain and M. Brucker customized the GPS at the IPHC-CNRS. KHE received financial support through a NSERC Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship, ACUNS Garfield Weston Northern Studies scholarship and AINA Jennifer Robinson Scholarship and JFH received NSERC Discovery Grant funding. J. Welcker generously loaned some accelerometers. All procedures were approved under the guidelines of the Canadian Council for Animal Care.

The Relation Between Civic Education and Political Attitudes and Behavior

It is generally assumed that civic education efforts will have a positive effect on the political attitudes and behaviors of adolescents and young adults. There is less agreement, however, on the most effective forms of civic education. In the present study, we distinguish between formal civic education, an open classroom climate and active learning strategies, and we explore their effect on political interest, efficacy, trust and participation. To analyze these effects, we rely on the results of a two-year panel study among late adolescents in Belgium. The results indicate that formal civic education (classroom instruction) and active learning strategies (school council membership and, to a lesser extent, group projects) are effective in shaping political attitudes and behavior. An open classroom climate, on the other hand, has an effect on political trust. We conclude that there is no reason to privilege specific forms of civic education, as each form contributes to different relevant political attitudes and behaviors.

Hope comes in many forms:out-group expressions of hope override low support and promote reconciliation in conflicts

In conflicts, political attitudes are based to some extent on the perception of the outgroup as sharing the goal of peace and supporting steps to achieve it. However, intractable conflicts are characterized by inconsistent and negative interactions, which prevent clear messages of outgroup support. This problem calls for alternative ways to convey support between groups in conflict. One such method is emotional expressions. The current research tested whether, in the absence of outgroup support for peace, observing expressions of outgroup hope induces conciliatory attitudes. Results from two experimental studies, conducted within the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, revealed support for this hypothesis. Expressions of Palestinian hope induced acceptance of a peace agreement through Israeli hope and positive perceptions of the proposal when outgroup support expressions were low. Findings demonstrate the importance of hope as a means of conveying information within processes of conflict resolution, overriding messages of low outgroup support for peace.

Policy support for business R&D

Research and development (R&D) has a well-documented positive impact on growth and productivity; private and spillover R&D benefits to the UK economy are estimated at £9.8 billion annually. Governments increasingly recognise the benefits of supporting private R&D investment, but with constrained public spending the available funds have to be targeted effectively.

Pharmacological enhancement of naltrexone treatment for opioid dependence: a review.

PURPOSE: Opioid dependence (OD) is a serious and growing clinical condition with increasing social costs that requires expanding treatment beyond opioid agonist substitution. The opioid antagonist naltrexone has displayed a remarkable association of theoretical effectiveness and poor clinical utility in treating OD due to noncompliant behavior and low acceptability among patients, only partly modified by psychosocial interventions. We reviewed pharmacological studies, including naltrexone depot formulations and combination treatments. METHOD: We searched PubMed for clinical studies on the use of naltrexone implants and slow-release injections in OD, and investigations using adjunct medications to improve naltrexone maintenance therapy of OD. We discussed the results in view of their application to the clinical practice. RESULTS: Significant reduction in opioid use and improved retention in treatment have been found in several studies using depot naltrexone formulations, some of which are controlled clinical trials. Pilot investigations have gathered initial positive results on the use of naltrexone in combination with serotonin reuptake inhibitors, α-2 adrenergic, opioid, and γ-aminobutyric acid agonist medications. CONCLUSION: Current evidence suggests that more research on effectiveness and safety is needed in support of depot naltrexone treatment for OD. Further research comparing slow-release with oral naltrexone and opioid agonist medications will help characterize the role of opioid antagonist-mediated treatment of OD. Preliminary investigations on naltrexone combination treatments suggest the opportunity to continue study of new mixed receptor activities for the treatment of OD and other drug addictions.

Institutional Persistence in Eastern Europe: Economic and Political Legacies of Empires and Communism

This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of the roles that institutions play in economic development. How do institutions evolve? What mechanisms are responsible for their persistence? What effects do they have on economic development?

I address these questions using historical and contemporary data from Eastern Europe and Russia. This area is relatively understudied by development economists. It also has a very interesting history. For one thing, for several centuries it was divided between different empires. For another, it experienced wars and socialism in the 20th century. I use some of these exogenous shocks as quasi-natural social experiments to study the institutional transformations and its effects on economic development both in the short and long run.

This first chapter explores whether economic, social, and political institutions vary in their resistance to policies designed to remove them. The empirical context for the analysis is Romania from 1690 to the 2000s. Romania represents an excellent laboratory for studying the persistence of different types of historical institutional legacies. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Romania was split between the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, where political and economic institutions differed. The Habsburgs imposed less extractive institutions relative to the Ottomans: stronger rule of law, a more stable and predictable state, a more developed civil society, and less corruption. In the 20th century, the Romanian Communist regime tried deliberately to homogenize the country along all relevant dimensions. It was only partially successful. Using a regression discontinuity design, I document the persistence of economic outcomes, social capital, and political attitudes. First, I document remarkable convergence in urbanization, education, unemployment, and income between the two former empires. Second, regarding social capital, no significant differences in organizational membership, trust in bureaucracy, and corruption persist today. Finally, even though the Communists tried to change all political attitudes, significant discontinuities exist in current voting behavior at the former Habsburg-Ottoman border. Using data from the parliamentary elections of 1996-2008, I find that former Habsburg rule decreases by around 6 percentage points the vote share of the major post-Communist left party and increases by around 2 and 5 percentage points the vote shares of the main anti-Communist and liberal parties, respectively.

The second chapter investigates the effects of Stalin’s mass deportations on distrust in central authority. Four deported ethnic groups were not rehabilitated after Stalin’s death; they remained in permanent exile until the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This allows one to distinguish between the effects of the groups that returned to their homelands and those of the groups that were not allowed to return. Using regional data from the 1991 referendum on the future of the Soviet Union, I find that deportations have a negative interim effect on trust in central authority in both the regions of destination and those of origin. The effect is stronger for ethnic groups that remained in permanent exile in the destination regions. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, the chapter also documents a long-term effect of deportations in the destination regions.

The third chapter studies the short-term effect of Russian colonization of Central Asia on economic development. I use data on the regions of origin of Russian settlers and push factors to construct an instrument for Russian migration to Central Asia. This instrument allows me to interpret the outcomes causally. The main finding is that the massive influx of Russians into the region during the 1897-1926 period had a significant positive effect on indigenous literacy. The effect is stronger for men and in rural areas. Evidently, interactions between natives and Russians through the paid labor market was an important mechanism of human capital transmission in the context of colonization.

The findings of these chapters provide additional evidence that history and institutions do matter for economic development. Moreover, the dissertation also illuminates the relative persistence of institutions. In particular, political and social capital legacies of institutions might outlast economic legacies. I find that most economic differences between the former empires in Romania have disappeared. By the same token, there are significant discontinuities in political outcomes. People in former Habsburg Romania provide greater support for liberalization, privatization, and market economy, whereas voters in Ottoman Romania vote more for redistribution and government control over the economy.

In the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s deportations during World War II have a long-term negative effect on social capital. Today’s residents of the destination regions of deportations show significantly lower levels of trust in central authority. This is despite the fact that the Communist regime tried to eliminate any source of opposition and used propaganda to homogenize people’s political and social attitudes towards the authorities. In Central Asia, the influx of Russian settlers had a positive short-term effect on human capital of indigenous population by the 1920s, which also might have persisted over time.

From a development perspective, these findings stress the importance of institutions for future paths of development. Even if past institutional differences are not apparent for a certain period of time, as was the case with the former Communist countries, they can polarize society later on, hampering economic development in the long run. Different institutions in the past, which do not exist anymore, can thus contribute to current political instability and animosity.

The Role of TET Proteins in the Epigenetic Regulation of Neural Gene Expression and Behavior

Understanding how genes affect behavior is critical to develop precise therapies for human behavioral disorders. The ability to investigate the relationship between genes and behavior has been greatly advanced over the last few decades due to progress in gene-targeting technology. Recently, the Tet gene family was discovered and implicated in epigenetic modification of DNA methylation by converting 5-methylcytosine to 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC). 5hmC and its catalysts, the TET proteins, are highly abundant in the postnatal brain but with unclear functions. To investigate their neural functions, we generated new lines of Tet1 and Tet3 mutant mice using a gene targeting approach. We designed both mutations to cause a frameshift by deleting the largest coding exon of Tet1 (Tet1Δe4) and the catalytic domain of Tet3 (Tet3Δe7-9). As Tet1 is also highly expressed in embryonic stem cells (ESCs), we generated Tet1 homozygous deleted ESCs through sequential targeting to compare the function of Tet1 in the brain to its role in ESCs. To test our hypothesis that TET proteins epigenetically regulate transcription of key neural genes important for normal brain function, we examined transcriptional and epigenetic differences in the Tet1Δe4 mouse brain. The oxytocin receptor (OXTR), a neural gene implicated in social behaviors, is suggested to be epigenetically regulated by an unknown mechanism. Interestingly, several human studies have found associations between OXTR DNA hypermethylation and a wide spectrum of behavioral traits and neuropsychiatric disorders including autism spectrum disorders. Here we report the first evidence for an epigenetic mechanism of Oxtr transcription as expression of Oxtr is reduced in the brains of Tet1Δe4-/- mice. Likewise, the CpG island overlapping the promoter of Oxtr is hypermethylated during early embryonic development and persists into adulthood. We also discovered altered histone modifications at the hypermethylated regions, indicating the loss of TET1 has broad effects on the chromatin structure at Oxtr. Unexpectedly, we discovered an array of novel mRNA isoforms of Oxtr that are selectively reduced in Tet1Δe4-/- mice. Additionally, Tet1Δe4-/- mice display increased agonistic behaviors and impaired maternal care and short-term memory. Our findings support a novel role for TET1 in regulating Oxtr expression by preventing DNA hypermethylation and implicate TET1 in social behaviors, offering novel insight into Oxtr epigenetic regulation and its role in neuropsychiatric disorders.