How should pathogen transmission be modelled?

Host-pathogen models are essential for designing strategies for managing disease threats to humans, wild animals and domestic animals. The behaviour of these models is greatly affected by the way in which transmission between infected and susceptible hosts is modelled. Since host-pathogen models were first developed at the beginning of the 20th century, the 'mass action' assumption has almost always been used for transmission. Recently, however, it has been suggested that mass action has often been modelled wrongly. Alternative models of transmission are beginning to appear, as are empirical tests of transmission dynamics.

Taeniogonalos raymenti Carmean & Kimsey (Hymenoptera : Trigonalidae) reared as a hyperparasite of Sturmia convergens (Weidemann) (Diptera : Tachinidae), a primary parasite of Danaus plexippus (L.) (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae)

Taeniogonalos raymenti is confirmed as a hyperparasitoid of the tachinid Sturmia convergens which parasitises larval Danaus plexippus. Trigonalids are indirect parasitoids and in this case we have direct evidence that wasp eggs must have been laid on the caterpillar's host plant. Asclepias fruticosa. before the secondary host, but not necessarily before the primary tachinid host, was present. Levels of hyperparasitism during our sampling period were very low at less than two percent.

Liveweight gains of steers at different stocking rates on monospecific Gatton panic and Estrella grass pastures in the Chaco Central region of Paraguay

A grazing trial to study the effect of stocking rate on animal production and botanical composition of Gallon panic (Panicum maximum) and Estrella grass (Cynodon nlemfuensis) was conducted in the central region of the Paraguayan Chaco between 1992 and 1998. The experiment included 6 stocking rates (0.5, 0.8. 1.1, 1.4. 1.7 and 2.0 AU/ha) on individual 4-ha paddocks. The pasture treatments were continuously grazed by yearling steers. replaced annually, over a 4-year grazing period. No fertiliser was used. Botanical composition was recorded annually in autumn from 1992 to 1998 while animal production data were recorded monthly from 1992 to 1996. Relationships between animal productivity and stocking rates were determined by regression analysis. Gallon panic produced greater liveweight gains per head than Estrella grass at low and intermediate stocking rates. However, the slope of the linear relationship between liveweight gain per head and stocking rate increased each year in Gallon panic indicating that the productivity of this grass progressively declined at higher stocking rates over the period of observation. Estrella grass showed less sensitivity to stocking rate but was affected severely by periods of low rainfall.

Host plant specificity in several species of generalist mite predators

1. Species in the genus Neoseiulus are considered to be generalist predators. with some species used in biological control programmes against phytophagous mites and insects. 2. A general survey of Neoseiulus species in inland Australia indicated that different species are associated with particular tree species. This pattern of host plant use was investigated for four Neoseiulus species (N. buxeus, N. cappari, N. brigarinus, N. eremitus) by means of a sampling programme through time and across space. 3. Each species of Neoseiulus was collected entirely or mostly from one species of tree: little or no overlap was detected despite the tree species growing in well-mixed stands. Host plant specificity thus appears to be strong in this genus. 4. Species in two other genera (Pholaseius and Australiseiulus), also considered to be predatory, showed a similar association with particular tree species. 5. The implications for the use of these predators in biological control are considerable. In particular, phytoseiid species with specific needs in terms of host plants may not be suitable for use as general purpose predators. Meeting the needs of phytoseiids through the modification of host plant attributes may be a step towards enhancing their efficacy as biological control agents.

Breeding for low input conditions and consequences for participatory plant breeding: Examples from tropical maize and wheat

Participatory plant breeding (PPB) has been suggested as an effective alternative to formal plant breeding (FPB) as a breeding strategy for achieving productivity gains under low input conditions. With genetic progress through PPB and FPB being determined by the same genetic variables, the likelihood of success of PPB approaches applied in low input target conditions was analyzed using two case studies from FPB that have resulted in significant productivity gains under low input conditions: (1) breeding tropical maize for low input conditions by CIMMYT, and (2) breeding of spring wheat for the highly variable low input rainfed farming systems in Australia. In both cases, genetic improvement was an outcome of long-term investment in a sustained research effort aimed at understanding the detail of the important environmental constraints to productivity and the plant requirements for improved adaptation to the identified constraints, followed up by the design and continued evaluation of efficient breeding strategies. The breeding strategies used differed between the two case studies but were consistent in their attention to the key determinants of response to selection: (1) ensuring adequate sources of genetic variation and high selection pressures for the important traits at all stages of the breeding program, (2) use of experimental procedures to achieve high levels of heritability in the breeding trials, and (3) testing strategies that achieved a high genetic correlation between performance of germplasm in the breeding trials and under on-farm conditions. The implications of the outcomes from these FPB case studies for realizing the positive motivations for adopting PPB strategies are discussed with particular reference for low input target environment conditions.

Lucerne biology and genetic improvement - an analysis of past activities and future goals in Australia

Breeding methodologies for cultivated lucerne (Medicago sativa L.), an autotetraploid, have changed little over the last 50 years, with reliance on polycross methods and recurrent phenotypic selection. There has been, however, an increase in our understanding of lucerne biology, in particular the genetic relationships between members of the M. sativa complex, as deduced by DNA analysis. Also, the differences in breeding behaviour and vigour of diploids versus autotetraploids, and the underlying genetic causes, are discussed in relation to lucerne improvement. Medicago falcata, a member of the M. sativa complex, has contributed substantially to lucerne improvement in North America, and its diverse genetics would appear to have been under-utilised in Australian programs over the last two decades, despite the reduced need for tolerance to freezing injury in Australian environments. Breeding of lucerne in Australia only commenced on a large scale in 1977, driven by an urgent need to introgress aphid resistance into adapted backgrounds. The release in the early 1980s of lucernes with multiple pest and disease resistance (aphids, Phytophthora, Colletotrichum) had a significant effect on increasing lucerne productivity and persistence in eastern Australia, with yield increases under high disease pressure of up to 300% being recorded over the predominant Australian cultivar, up to 1977, Hunter River. Since that period, irrigated lucerne yields have plateaued, highlighting the need to identify breeding objectives, technologies, and the germplasm that will create new opportunities for increasing performance. This review discusses major goals for lucerne improvement programs in Australia, and provides indications of the germplasm sources and technologies that are likely to deliver the desired outcomes.

Can long-distance dispersal be inferred from the New Zealand plant fossil record?

New Zealand is generally thought to have been physically isolated from the rest of the world for over 60 million years. But physical isolation may not mean biotic isolation, at least on the time scale of millions of years. Are New Zealand's present complement of plants the direct descendants of what originally rafted from Gondwana? Or has there been total extinction of this initial flora with replacement through long-distance dispersal (a complete biotic turnover)? These are two possible extremes which have come under recent discussion. Can the fossil record be used to decide the relative importance of the two endpoints, or is it simply too incomplete and too dependent on factors of chance? This paper suggests two approaches to the problem-the use of statistics to apply levels of confidence to first appearances in the fossil record and the analysis of trends based on the entire palynorecord. Statistics can suggest that the first appearance of a taxon was after New Zealand broke away from Gondwana-as long as the first appearance in the record was not due to an increase in biomass from an initially rare state. Two observations can be drawn from the overall palynorecord that are independent of changes in biomass: (1) The first appearance of palynotaxa common to both Australia and New Zealand is decidedly non-random. Most taxa occur first in Australia. This suggests a bias in air or water transport from west to east. (2) The percentage of endemic palynospecies in New Zealand shows no simple correlation with the time New Zealand drifted into isolation. The conifer macrorecord also hints at complete turnover since the Cretaceous.

Saprophytic microorganisms with potential for biological control of Botrytis cinerea on Geraldton waxflower flowers

Saprophytic bacteria, yeasts and filamentous fungi were isolated from Geraldton waxflower flowers and screened to identify potential antagonism towards Botrytis cinerea. Isolates from other sources (e.g. avocado) were also tested. Isolates were initially screened in vitro for inhibition of B. cinerea conidial germination, germ tube elongation and mycelial growth. The most antagonistic bacteria, yeasts and fungi were selected for further testing on detached waxflower flowers. Conidia of the pathogen were mixed with conidia or cells of the selected antagonists, co-inoculated onto waxflower flowers, and the flowers were sealed in glass jars and incubated at 20 degreesC. The number of days required for the pathogen to cause flower abscission was determined. The most antagonistic bacterial isolate, Pseudomonas sp. 677, significantly reduced conidial germination and retarded germ tube elongation of B. cinerea. None of the yeast or fungal isolates tested was found to significantly reduce conidial germination or retard germ tube elongation, but several significantly inhibited growth of B. cinerea. Fusarium sp., Epicoccum sp. and Trichoderma spp. were the most antagonistic of these isolates. Of the isolates tested on waxflower, Pseudomonas sp. 677 was highly antagonistic towards B. cinerea and delayed waxflower abscission by about 3 days. Trichoderma harzianum also significantly delayed flower abscission. However, as with most of the fungal antagonists used, inoculation of waxflower flowers with this isolate resulted in unsightly mycelial growth.

Effects of phosphonate and salicylic acid treatments on anthracnose disease development and ripening of 'Kensington Pride' mango fruit

This study investigated treatment of mango (Mangifera indica L.) fruit with 2 host defence-promoting compounds for suppression of anthracnose disease (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides). Cultivar 'Kensington Pride' fruit were treated at concentrations of up to 1000 mg/L with either potassium phosphonate or salicylic acid. Applications were by various combinations of pre- and postharvest dips and vacuum infiltration. Postharvest treatments at up to 2000 mg/L salicylic acid were evaluated in a second fruiting season. Fruit were either uninoculated or inoculated with the fungal pathogen. Colour, firmness and disease-severity were assessed during shelf life at 23 degreesC. There were no significant (P>0.05) effects of potassium phosphonate or salicylic acid on anthracnose disease severity in the first season. Moreover, phosphonate or salicylic acid treatment did not significantly affect fruit colour or firmness changes. There were significant (P

Influence of fungal pathogens and environmental conditions on disease severity, flower fall and desiccation of harvested Geraldton waxflower - 2. Studies with commercial packages

Relationships were examined between environmental conditions mediated by packaging and handling and the deterioration of harvested Geraldton waxflower cv. 'Fortune Cookie'. Disease severity plus flower and leaf drop caused by inoculation with Botrytis cinerea were reduced by lowering handling temperatures to 0, 5 or 5/20 degreesC alternated daily, versus 20 degreesC. They were also reduced by inhibition of ethylene action with a silver thiosulfate pulse pretreatment. Additionally, treatments that enhanced water loss, such as packing dry, keeping forced air-cooling holes open and strategic placement of extra ventilation holes may also reduce disease severity and flower plus leaf fall. Inclusion of KMnO4-based Bloomfresh ethylene scrubbing sachets in packages did not reduce disease severity or lessen flower plus leaf fall. Thus, deterioration of waxflower packaged in commercial cartons can be minimised by keeping temperatures low, packing plant material dry, use of cartons with strategically placed ventilation holes and/or pretreatment with silver thiosulfate.

Estimating economic relationships subject to firm- and time-varying equality and inequality constraints

Applied econometricians often fail to impose economic regularity constraints in the exact form economic theory prescribes. We show how the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used to rigorously impose time- and firm-varying equality and inequality constraints. To illustrate the technique we estimate a system of translog input demand functions subject to all the constraints implied by economic theory, including observation-varying symmetry and concavity constraints. Results are presented in the form of characteristics of the estimated posterior distributions of functions of the parameters. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.