Általános egyensúlyi modellek alkalmazása gazdaságpolitikai elemzésekre (Application of general equilibrium models to economic policy analyses)

A szerző az alkalmazott többszektoros modellezés területén a lineáris programozási modellektől a számszerűsített általános egyensúlyi modellekig végbement változásokat tekinti át. Egy rövid történeti visszapillantás után a lineáris programozás módszereire épülő nemzetgazdasági szintű modellekkel összevetve mutatja be az általános egyensúlyi modellek közös, illetve eltérő jellemzőit. Egyidejűleg azt is érzékelteti, hogyan lehet az általános egyensúlyi modelleket a gazdaságpolitikai célok konzisztenciájának, a célok közötti átváltási lehetőségek elemzésére és általában a gazdaságpolitikai elképzelések érzékenységi vizsgálatára felhasználni. A szerző az elméleti-módszertani kérdések taglalását számszerűsített általános egyensúlyi modell segítségével illusztrálja. _______ The author surveys the changes having taken place in the field of multi-sector modeling, from the linear programming models to the quantified general equilibrium models. After a brief historical retrospection he presents the common and different characteristic features of the general equilibrium models by comparing them with the national economic level models based on the methods of linear programming. He also makes clear how the general equilibrium models can be used for analysing the consistency of economic policy targets, for the investigation of trade-off possibilities among the targets and, in general, for sensitivity analyses of economic policy targets. The discussion of theoretical and methodological quuestions is illustrated by the author with the aid of a quantified general equilibrium model.

A disztribúció kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó ellátási és működési kockázatok (Supply and operational risks in the outsourcing of distribution management)

A cikk célja, hogy elemző bemutatását adja az ellátási láncok működéséhez, különösen a disztribúciós tevékenység kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó működési kockázatoknak. Az írás első része az irodalomkutatás eredményeit feldolgozva az ellátási láncok kockázati kitettségének növekedése mögött rejlő okokat törekszik feltárni, s röviden bemutatja a vállalati kockázatkezelés lehetséges lépéseit e téren. A cikk második gondolati egysége mélyinterjúk segítségével összefoglalja és rendszerezi a disztribúció kiszervezéséhez kapcsolódó kockázatokat, számba veszi a kapcsolódó kockázatkezelési lehetőségeket, s bemutatja a megkérdezett vállalatok által alkalmazott kockázat-megelőzési alternatívákat. ______ The aim of this paper is to introduce operational risks of supply chains, especially risks deriving from the outsourcing of distribution management. Based on literature review the first part of the paper talks about the potential reasons of increasing global supply chain risks, and the general business activities of risk assessment. Analyzing the results of semi-structured qualitative interviews, the second part summarizes the risks belonging to the outsourcing of distribution and introduces the potential risk assessment and avoidance opportunities and alternatives in practice.

Links between migration and the presence of foreign combatants in armed conflict

This article explores the connections between migration and foreign combat, offering an improved definition of „foreign fighters,” and a general concept of foreign combatants’ behaviour as an anomalous form of migration. In contrast with the popular discourse and terrorism-related concerns about present-day Western European foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria (and their return to Europe) and Middle Eastern migrant refugees (and their arrival in Europe), the intention of this article is to offer a conceptually thorough consideration of the causal connections between movements of migration and the presence of foreign combatants in armed conflict, informed by a wide sample of cases. Such an assessment has to take place with a view to all forms of migration (including forced migration), all forms of foreign combat (not only foreign combat on the side of non-state actors as David Malet's oft-cited but overly restrictive definition would imply), and regions of the world beyond the Middle East and Islamic countries. Along these guiding lines, the article points out many comparatively rarely considered cases of foreign combat as well as the underestimated obstacles in the way of fighting abroad. Taking account of the latter allows refutation of a key implication of „new war theory” (its focus on „greed” as a motive of combatants), in light of the continued importance of cultural factors and ideological motives for participation in foreign combat.

Effects of special educator peer coaching on general educator effectiveness in inclusive classroom settings

This dissertation investigated the effects of a peer coaching relationship between a special education teacher and two general education teachers. More specifically, a two-tier multiple baseline design across subjects was used to evaluate the effects of peer coaching on the general education teachers' use of effective instructional practices (EIPs) and subsequent effects on the engagement rate and academic performance of students with and without disabilities. The peer coaching process included modeling, direct support, and feedback on the use of effective instructional practices including getting student attention, giving specific directions, asking specific questions with wait time, contingent positive reinforcement, positive error correction, precorrection, prompting, and proximity control. A 30-second partial interval recording procedure was used to observe the general education teachers' use of effective instructional practices and student engagement rates. Student participants' academic performance was measured using weekly quizzes. ^ Peer coaching resulted in an overall increase in the teachers' use of EIPs. One general education teacher had a 30% increase in average EIP use from 46% during the baseline phase to 76% during intervention. Student engagement for her two student participants with and without disabilities indicated an increase from 54% to 69% and from 47% to 65% respectively. Results for the second general education teacher indicated a 34% increase in average EIP use from 55% during the baseline to 89% during intervention. Student engagement for the two student participants with and without disabilities in her class increased from 48% to 83% and from 29% to 71% respectively. Student academic performance showed a small increase. In follow-up observations, the effects of peer coaching on teacher use of EIPs and student engagement and academic performance were maintained. ^ The results of this study suggest that using peer coaching to support general education teachers can be an effective method to improve the educational outcomes of students with and without disabilities in general education. Further research is needed to investigate the effects of peer coaching with other special and general educator partnerships and other student participants. ^

Black middle school students' perceptions of success and their influence on academic performance

The purpose of the study was to investigate the perceptions of success held by Black middle school students in a Miami-Dade County (FL) public school and how these perceptions influence academic performance. The study sought to determine if differences exist among African-American, Haitian-American, and Haitian immigrant subgroups of the Black student population. ^ The study combined qualitative and quantitative methodology in data collection and analysis. The qualitative data consisted of three focus group interviews. Using a semi-structured protocol, questions focused on the student's perceptions of the characteristics of successful people, definitions of success, behaviors associated with achieving success, and peer, family and school support. The quantitative data comprised the responses of 352 Black middle school students to the Inventory of Student Motivation (ISM) developed to measure mastery, performance and social goal orientations. Response similarities and differences were examined using a series of two-way ANOVAs on the success scales by gender and culture. A three-way repeated measures ANOVA was conducted on mastery, performance and social general goal scales by culture and gender. ^ The results of the ISM revealed no statistically significant differences among African-American, Haitian-American, and Haitian students in their mastery, performance or social goal orientations. All three cultural groups scored significantly high on the mastery goal scale. There was a significant effect for gender on the mastery general scale with the females being more concerned with mastery than the males. Qualitative focus group interview results included varying definitions of success. African-American and Haitian-American students defined success in materialistic terms. Haitian students defined success in scholastic achievement terms. All students indicated hard work, persistence and goal setting through completion as important to achieving success. Negative influences included peer pressure, teacher and societal expectations, and classroom environment. Parental reaction to low academic performance varied by culture. ^

Exploring the goals, content, and methods of entrepreneurship professors: A multiple case study

Along with the accumulation of evidence supporting the role of entrepreneurship in economic development (Acs & Armington, 2006; Kuratko, 2005, Reynolds, 2007), governments have persisted in encouraging people to become entrepreneurs (Acs & Stough, 2008; Brannback & Carsrud, 2008). These efforts have tried to reproduce the conditions under which entrepreneurship emerges. One of these conditions is to develop entrepreneurial skills among students and scientists (Fan & Foo, 2004). Entrepreneurship education within higher education has experienced a remarkable expansion in the last 20 years (Green, 2008). To develop entrepreneurial skills among students, scholars have proposed different teaching approaches. However, no clear relationship has been demonstrated between entrepreneurship education, learning outcomes, and business creation (Hostager & Decker, 1999). Despite policy makers demands for more accountability from educational institutions (Klimoski, 2007) and entrepreneurship instructors demands for consistency about what should be taught and how (Maidment, 2009), the appropriate content for entrepreneurship programs remains under constant discussion (Solomon, 2007). Entrepreneurship education is still in its infancy, professors propose diverse teaching goals and radically different teaching methods. This represents an obstacle to development of foundational and consistent curricula across the board (Cone, 2008). Entrepreneurship education is in need of a better conceptualization of the learning outcomes pursued in order to develop consistent curriculum. Many schools do not have enough qualified faculty to meet the growing student demand and a consistent curriculum is needed for faculty development. Entrepreneurship instructors and their teaching practices are of interest because they have a role in producing the entrepreneurs needed to grow the economy. This study was designed to understand instructors’ perspectives and actions related to their teaching. The sample studied consisted of eight college and university entrepreneurship instructors. Cases met predetermined criteria of importance followed maximum variation strategies. Results suggest that teaching content were consistent across participants while different teaching goals were identified: some instructors inspire and develop general skills of students while others envision the creation of a real business as the major outcome of their course. A relationship between methods reported by instructors and their disciplinary background, teaching perspective, and entrepreneurial experience was found.

General Managers in Mid-scale Hotels: Are they Plateaued?

This research investigated the career-plateau patterns of general managers (GMs) in mid-scale hotels. In regard to plateau categories, by far the largest number of GMs reported that they were in the productively plateaued category. The hotel industry can use this research to view the career satisfaction and productivity of GMs in light of the plateau pattern into which they are classified.

Sea-surface temperature and sea ice distribution of the Southern Ocean at the EPILOG Last Glacial Maximum

Based on the quantitative study of diatoms and radiolarians, summer sea-surface temperature (SSST) and sea ice distribution were estimated from 122 sediment core localities in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean to reconstruct the last glacial environment at the EPILOG (19.5-16.0 ka or 23 000-19 000 cal yr. B.P.) time-slice. The statistical methods applied include the Imbrie and Kipp Method, the Modern Analog Technique and the General Additive Model. Summer SSTs reveal greater surface-water cooling than reconstructed by CLIMAP (Geol. Soc. Am. Map Chart. Ser. MC-36 (1981) 1), reaching a maximum (4-5 °C) in the present Subantarctic Zone of the Atlantic and Indian sector. The reconstruction of maximum winter sea ice (WSI) extent is in accordance with CLIMAP, showing an expansion of the WSI field by around 100% compared to the present. Although only limited information is available, the data clearly show that CLIMAP strongly overestimated the glacial summer sea ice extent. As a result of the northward expansion of Antarctic cold waters by 5-10° in latitude and a relatively small displacement of the Subtropical Front, thermal gradients were steepened during the last glacial in the northern zone of the Southern Ocean. Such reconstruction may, however, be inapposite for the Pacific sector. The few data available indicate reduced cooling in the southern Pacific and give suggestion for a non-uniform cooling of the glacial Southern Ocean.

Drying kinetic analysis of municipal solid waste using modified page model and pattern search method

This work studied the drying kinetics of the organic fractions of municipal solid waste (MSW) samples with different initial moisture contents and presented a new method for determination of drying kinetic parameters. A series of drying experiments at different temperatures were performed by using a thermogravimetric technique. Based on the modified Page drying model and the general pattern search method, a new drying kinetic method was developed using multiple isothermal drying curves simultaneously. The new method fitted the experimental data more accurately than the traditional method. Drying kinetic behaviors under extrapolated conditions were also predicted and validated. The new method indicated that the drying activation energies for the samples with initial moisture contents of 31.1 and 17.2 % on wet basis were 25.97 and 24.73 kJ mol−1. These results are useful for drying process simulation and industrial dryer design. This new method can be also applied to determine the drying parameters of other materials with high reliability.

Bacteria and tumours: causative agents or opportunistic inhabitants?

Associations between different bacteria and various tumours have been reported in patients for decades. Studies involving characterisation of bacteria within tumour tissues have traditionally been in the context of tumourigenesis as a result of bacterial presence within healthy tissues, and in general, dogma holds that such bacteria are causative agents of malignancy (directly or indirectly). While evidence suggests that this may be the case for certain tumour types and bacterial species, it is plausible that in many cases, clinical observations of bacteria within tumours arise from spontaneous infection of established tumours. Indeed, growth of bacteria specifically within tumours following deliberate systemic administration has been demonstrated for numerous bacterial species at preclinical and clinical levels. We present the available data on links between bacteria and tumours, and propose that besides the few instances in which pathogens are playing a pathogenic role in cancer, in many instances, the prevalent relationship between solid tumours and bacteria is opportunistic rather than causative, and discuss opportunities for exploiting tumour-specific bacterial growth for cancer treatment.

Putting together phylogenetic and ontogenetic perspectives on empathy.

The ontogeny of human empathy is better understood with reference to the evolutionary history of the social brain. Empathy has deep evolutionary, biochemical, and neurological underpinnings. Even the most advanced forms of empathy in humans are built on more basic forms and remain connected to core mechanisms associated with affective communication, social attachment, and parental care. In this paper, we argue that it is essential to consider empathy within a neurodevelopmental framework that recognizes both the continuities and changes in socioemotional understanding from infancy to adulthood. We bring together neuroevolutionary and developmental perspectives on the information processing and neural mechanisms underlying empathy and caring, and show that they are grounded in multiple interacting systems and processes. Moreover, empathy in humans is assisted by other abstract and domain-general high-level cognitive abilities such as executive functions, mentalizing and language, as well as the ability to differentiate another's mental states from one's own, which expand the range of behaviors that can be driven by empathy.

Mechanochemistry for Active Materials and Devices

The coupling of mechanical stress fields in polymers to covalent chemistry (polymer mechanochemistry) has provided access to previously unattainable chemical reactions and polymer transformations. In the bulk, mechanochemical activation has been used as the basis for new classes of stress-responsive polymers that demonstrate stress/strain sensing, shear-induced intermolecular reactivity for molecular level remodeling and self-strengthening, and the release of acids and other small molecules that are potentially capable of triggering further chemical response. The potential utility of polymer mechanochemistry in functional materials is limited, however, by the fact that to date, all reported covalent activation in the bulk occurs in concert with plastic yield and deformation, so that the structure of the activated object is vastly different from its nascent form. Mechanochemically activated materials have thus been limited to “single use” demonstrations, rather than as multi-functional materials for structural and/or device applications. Here, we report that filled polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) elastomers provide a robust elastic substrate into which mechanophores can be embedded and activated under conditions from which the sample regains its original shape and properties. Fabrication is straightforward and easily accessible, providing access for the first time to objects and devices that either release or reversibly activate chemical functionality over hundreds of loading cycles.

While the mechanically accelerated ring-opening reaction of spiropyran to merocyanine and associated color change provides a useful method by which to image the molecular scale stress/strain distribution within a polymer, the magnitude of the forces necessary for activation had yet to be quantified. Here, we report single molecule force spectroscopy studies of two spiropyran isomers. Ring opening on the timescale of tens of milliseconds is found to require forces of ~240 pN, well below that of previously characterized covalent mechanophores. The lower threshold force is a combination of a low force-free activation energy and the fact that the change in rate with force (activation length) of each isomer is greater than that inferred in other systems. Importantly, quantifying the magnitude of forces required to activate individual spiropyran-based force-probes enables the probe behave as a “scout” of molecular forces in materials; the observed behavior of which can be extrapolated to predict the reactivity of potential mechanophores within a given material and deformation.

We subsequently translated the design platform to existing dynamic soft technologies to fabricate the first mechanochemically responsive devices; first, by remotely inducing dielectric patterning of an elastic substrate to produce assorted fluorescent patterns in concert with topological changes; and second, by adopting a soft robotic platform to produce a color change from the strains inherent to pneumatically actuated robotic motion. Shown herein, covalent polymer mechanochemistry provides a viable mechanism to convert the same mechanical potential energy used for actuation into value-added, constructive covalent chemical responses. The color change associated with actuation suggests opportunities for not only new color changing or camouflaging strategies, but also the possibility for simultaneous activation of latent chemistry (e.g., release of small molecules, change in mechanical properties, activation of catalysts, etc.) in soft robots. In addition, mechanochromic stress mapping in a functional actuating device might provide a useful design and optimization tool, revealing spatial and temporal force evolution within the actuator in a way that might also be coupled to feedback loops that allow autonomous, self-regulation of activity.

In the future, both the specific material and the general approach should be useful in enriching the responsive functionality of soft elastomeric materials and devices. We anticipate the development of new mechanophores that, like the materials, are reversibly and repeatedly activated, expanding the capabilities of soft, active devices and further permitting dynamic control over chemical reactivity that is otherwise inaccessible, each in response to a single remote signal.

Transitioning Towards a Development Permit System: Recommendations for the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing

Since 2007, Ontario Regulation 608/06 now provides all municipalities with the authority to establish a development permit system (DPS); however, much of this regulatory power and its functions are largely misunderstood by both professionals and the general public, which has led to a lack of widespread municipal implementation. One main contributor to the uncertainty is the lack of academic literature. Currently, the most comprehensive document has been produced by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (MMAH), Development Permit System: A Handbook for Municipal Implementation. The study’s key objective is to identify, analyze, and evaluate the MMAH Handbook in order to effectively provide an updated set of recommendations within the context of Ontario.

Formal evolution and content in Asturian newspapers. From World War One to the Primo de Rivera Dictatorship

Between 1914 and 1923, and in general during the 1910s and 1920s, important changes occurred in the Asturian press that can be seen, for example, in the type of dailies which achieved certain readership levels. The form and number of pages evolved, images became more common, so-called citizen journalism was more freely practised, and there was a trend -when there was an opportunity- towards publishing articles which involved the author travelling to distant lands. Simultaneously, the consideration of sport as a show and the treatment given to other content both helped outline a new media scenario.

Still Rising: The Career Politician in the British House of Commons, the Cabinet and the Shadow Cabinet

There is a public perception that politicians in the United Kingdom are increasingly detached from the electorate due to the apparent increase in the number of ‘career politicians’ with a professional background in politics. This article examines the occupational backgrounds of successful candidates to the House of Commons of the United Kingdom between the 1997 and 2010 general elections, comparing the parliamentary compositions of the three main political parties (Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats) during this period, and the Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet as of 2014. By evaluating original and secondary quantitative data, it is argued that professionalised politicians have increased in the House of Commons relative to other occupational backgrounds, and are even further disproportionately represented in the senior teams of each major party.