Sources of selection bias in evaluating social programs: An interpretation of conventional measures and evidence on the effectiveness of matching as a program evaluation method

This paper decomposes the conventional measure of selection bias in observational studies into three components. The first two components are due to differences in the distributions of characteristics between participant and nonparticipant (comparison) group members: the first arises from differences in the supports, and the second from differences in densities over the region of common support. The third component arises from selection bias precisely defined. Using data from a recent social experiment, we find that the component due to selection bias, precisely defined, is smaller than the first two components. However, selection bias still represents a substantial fraction of the experimental impact estimate. The empirical performance of matching methods of program evaluation is also examined. We find that matching based on the propensity score eliminates some but not all of the measured selection bias, with the remaining bias still a substantial fraction of the estimated impact. We find that the support of the distribution of propensity scores for the comparison group is typically only a small portion of the support for the participant group. For values outside the common support, it is impossible to reliably estimate the effect of program participation using matching methods. If the impact of participation depends on the propensity score, as we find in our data, the failure of the common support condition severely limits matching compared with random assignment as an evaluation estimator.

Analysis and interpretation of cost data in randomised controlled trials: review of published studies

Objective To review critically the statistical methods used for health economic evaluations in randomised controlled trials where an estimate of cost is available for each patient in the study.

Cosmic velocity fields and their interpretation

We review the current status of our knowledge of cosmic velocity fields, on both small and large scales. A new statistic is described that characterizes the incoherent, thermal component of the velocity field on scales less than 2h−1 Mpc (h is H0/100 km·s−1·Mpc−1, where H0 is the Hubble constant and 1 Mpc = 3.09 × 1022 m) and smaller. The derived velocity is found to be quite stable across different catalogs and is of remarkably low amplitude, consistent with an effective Ω ∼ 0.15 on this scale. We advocate the use of this statistic as a standard diagnostic of the small-scale kinetic energy of the galaxy distribution. The analysis of large-scale flows probes the velocity field on scales of 10–60 h−1 Mpc and should be adequately described by linear perturbation theory. Recent work has focused on the comparison of gravity or density fields derived from whole-sky redshift surveys of galaxies [e.g., the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS)] with velocity fields derived from a variety of sources. All the algorithms that directly compare the gravity and velocity fields suggest low values of the density parameter, while the POTENT analysis, using the same data but comparing the derived IRAS galaxy density field with the Mark-III derived matter density field, leads to much higher estimates of the inferred density. Since the IRAS and Mark-III fields are not fully consistent with each other, the present discrepancies might result from the very different weighting applied to the data in the competing methods.

Desensitization of N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors: a problem of interpretation.

The phenomenon of desensitization is universal, but its mechanism is still ill-understood and controversial. A recently published study [Lin, F. & Stevens, C. F. (1994) J. Neurosci, 14, 2153-2160] attempted to cast light on the mechanism of desensitization of N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, in particular the vexed question of whether the channel must open before it can desensitize. During the desensitizing preexposure to agonist in those experiments, more desensitization was produced when channel openings were observed than when no openings were observed. The conclusion that "desensitization occurs more rapidly from the open state" unfortunately was based on a stochastic fallacy, and we present here a theoretical treatment and illustration showing that the observed behavior is predicted by a simple mechanism in which desensitization can occur only from a shut state.

Structural interpretation of the mutations in the beta-cardiac myosin that have been implicated in familial hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

In 10-30% of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy kindreds, the disease is caused by > 29 missense mutations in the cardiac beta-myosin heavy chain (MYH7) gene. The amino acid sequence similarity between chicken skeletal muscle and human beta-cardiac myosin and the three-dimensional structure of the chicken skeletal muscle myosin head have provided the opportunity to examine the structural consequences of these naturally occurring mutations in human beta-cardiac myosin. This study demonstrates that the mutations are related to distinct structural and functional domains. Twenty-four are clustered around four specific locations in the myosin head that are (i) associated with the actin binding interface, (ii) around the nucleotide binding site, (iii) adjacent to the region that connects the two reactive cysteine residues, and (iv) in close proximity to the interface of the heavy chain with the essential light chain. The remaining five mutations are in the myosin rod. The locations of these mutations provide insight into the way they impair the functioning of this molecular motor and also into the mechanism of energy transduction.

Joint interpretation of magnetotelluric, seismic, and well-log data in Hontomín (Spain)

Acknowledgements. This work is dedicated to the memory of Andrés Pérez-Estaún, brilliant scientist, colleague, and friend. The authors sincerely thank Ian Ferguson and an anonymous reviewer for their useful comments on the manuscript. Xènia Ogaya is currently supported in the Dublin Institute for Advanced Studies by a Science Foundation Ireland grant IRECCSEM (SFI grant 12/IP/1313). Juan Alcalde is funded by NERC grant NE/M007251/1, on interpretational uncertainty. Juanjo Ledo, Pilar Queralt and Alex Marcuello thank Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and EU Feder Funds through grant CGL2014- 54118-C2-1-R. Funding for this Project has been partially provided by the Spanish Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade, through the CIUDEN-CSIC-Inst. Jaume Almera agreement (ALM-09-027: Characterization, Development and Validation of Seismic Techniques applied to CO2 Geological Storage Sites), the CIUDEN-Fundació Bosch i Gimpera agreement (ALM-09-009 Development and Adaptation of Electromagnetic techniques: Characterisation of Storage Sites) and the project PIERCO2 (Progress In Electromagnetic Research for CO2 geological reservoirs CGL2009-07604). The CIUDEN project is co-financed by the European Union through the Technological Development Plant of Compostilla OXYCFB300 Project (European Energy Programme for Recovery).

"Another Way": The Pneumatology of Deleuzean Minoritarian Communal Interpretation in Scripture, the 16th Century Radical Reformation, and Alternative 21st Century Anabaptist Community

This dissertation proposes a constructive theology of the Holy Spirit called the "pneumatology of minoritarian communal interpretation," the alternative creation of meaning within an oppressive majority context. It illustrates the convergence of Deleuzean philosophy with Anabaptist pneumatology and media communal interpretation theory in three particular locations: 1) selected mentions of the Holy Spirit in the Hebrew Bible and Christian New Testament; 2) the 16th century Radical Reformation; and 3) "Another Way," a 21st century alternative Anabaptist group focused around the spiritual discussion of art and popular media. Chapter One outlines the three theories. Chapter Two examines the Holy Spirit in the Hebrew Bible, particularly 1 Samuel 8, the book of Ezekiel, and the Gospel narratives. Chapter Three examines the pneumatological writings of the Radical Reformers, concentrating particularly on their theologies of the intersection between church and the surrounding majoritarian culture. Chapter Four outlines my original field research with Another Way, and examines the tension between minoritarian communal interpretation and the 21st century semiotic regime. Chapter Five then summarizes the conversations between theory and illustration to propose the pneumatology of minoritarian communal interpretation for Christian theology.

The Effects of Father Absence Due to Divorce: A Systems Interpretation.

In American society, the incidence of divorce continues to rise. In 1974, the estimate was that 40% of all new marriages would end in divorce. When children are involved, the mother usually regains custody. Although the number of children of divorce living with their fathers is increasing, it is still a small percent. In addition, the rate of remarriages is lower when children are involved (Hetherington.et al.,1977). Consequently, a large number of children are being raised in father-absent homes, and indications are that the numbers are increasing. A recent Denver Post article predicted that 50% of all children now being born will spend some of their childhood in a single-parent home. In terms of frequency, the father-absent family is becoming quite common, even "normal," yet it often continues to be considered a "broken" home and, when compared to the two-parent family, an inadequate structure in which to raise healthy children. Since father-absent families are so common these days, this opinion is in need of review.This paper will present a review of the father absence research in three areas: sex role development, cognitive development and personality development. The role of moderator variables will be discussed. And, finally,an open systems model will be proposed as a vehicle to better understand the effects of father absence and as a guide for future research.