954 resultados para Parametric bootstrap


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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

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Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

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The aim of this paper is to predict time series of SO2 concentrations emitted by coal-fired power stations in order to estimate in advance emission episodes and analyze the influence of some meteorological variables in the prediction. An emission episode is said to occur when the series of bi-hourly means of SO2 is greater than a specific level. For coal-fired power stations it is essential to predict emission epi- sodes sufficiently in advance so appropriate preventive measures can be taken. We proposed a meth- odology to predict SO2 emission episodes based on using an additive model and an algorithm for variable selection. The methodology was applied to the estimation of SO2 emissions registered in sampling lo- cations near a coal-fired power station located in Northern Spain. The results obtained indicate a good performance of the model considering only two terms of the time series and that the inclusion of the meteorological variables in the model is not significant.

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The suitability of a total-length-based, minimum capture-size and different protection regimes was investigated for the gooseneck barnacle Pollicipes pollicipes shellfishery in N Spain. For this analysis, individuals that were collected from 10 sites under different fishery protection regimes (permanently open, seasonally closed, and permanently closed) were used. First, we applied a non-parametric regression model to explore the relationship between the capitulum Rostro-Tergum (RT) size and the Total Length (TL). Important heteroskedastic disturbances were detected for this relationship, demon- strating a high variability of TL with respect to RT. This result substantiates the unsuitability of a TL-based minimum size by means of a mathematical model. Due to these disturbances, an alternative growth- based minimum capture size of 26.3 mm RT (23 mm RC) was estimated using the first derivative of a Kernel-based non-parametric regression model for the relationship between RT and dry weight. For this purpose, data from the permanently protected area were used to avoid bias due to the fishery. Second, the size-frequency distribution similarity was computed using a MDS analysis for the studied sites to evaluate the effectiveness of the protection regimes. The results of this analysis indicated a positive effect of the permanent protection, while the effect of the seasonal closure was not detected. This result needs to be interpreted with caution because the current harvesting based on a potentially unsuitable mini- mum capture size may dampen the efficacy of the seasonal protection regime.

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The institutionalization of children and adolescents has been an increasingly visible problem in modern society. Unfavourable socio-economic conditions have been joining the behavior problems and school absenteeism. When the family fails in its competence for education, social security or the Court withdraws the child or adolescent to a host institution. The aim of this research was to characterize self-esteem, assertiveness and resilience of institutionalized adolescents in the northern region of Portugal and to establish associations with these dependent variables and gender, scholar level and duration of the institutionalization. For the purpose of this study a wider questionnaire was carried out, and validated with a smaller group. It was a transversal study following a predominantly quantitative methodology, with a convenience sample. The sample included 101 adolescents (55 female and 46 males) from eight institutions, aged between 11 to 21 years old (average 15.45). For self-esteem the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965), already validate for Portuguese adolescents, was used. For assertiveness and resilience it was applied the Global Evaluation Scale of Assertiveness and the Global Evaluation Scale of Resilience (Jardim & Pereira, 2006) we previously adapted and validated for adolescents. Collected data was introduced in a SPSS database. A descriptive analysis was done to characterize the sample concerning all the variables. To establish associations between individual factors and dependent variables t test, correlations and non-parametric test were applied. Results indicated a relatively low self-esteem (28.03), with girls having a lower value than boys, without significant differences. No correlations were found between self-esteem and the time in the institution. Assertiveness of the sample is average (23.97) and higher for girls than boys, with a positive significant correlation with the scholar grade. Also the resilience is average (25.97), having girls a little lower mean than boys and no significant differences or correlations were found.

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Dissertação de mestrado em Ordenamento e Valorização de Recursos Geológicos

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The necessary information to distinguish a local inhomogeneous mass density field from its spatial average on a compact domain of the universe can be measured by relative information entropy. The Kullback-Leibler (KL) formula arises very naturally in this context, however, it provides a very complicated way to compute the mutual information between spatially separated but causally connected regions of the universe in a realistic, inhomogeneous model. To circumvent this issue, by considering a parametric extension of the KL measure, we develop a simple model to describe the mutual information which is entangled via the gravitational field equations. We show that the Tsallis relative entropy can be a good approximation in the case of small inhomogeneities, and for measuring the independent relative information inside the domain, we propose the R\'enyi relative entropy formula.

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The Smart Drug Search is publicly accessible at http://sing.ei.uvigo.es/sds/. The BIOMedical Search Engine Framework is freely available for non-commercial use at https://github.com/agjacome/biomsef

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Resumen del proyecto: Este resumen se incluirá en la base de datos de la Biblioteca Digital del Ministerio, por lo que se debe elaborar el mismo sobre la base de la siguiente estructura y completar todos los campos que se indican a continuación: identificación y caracterización del problema objeto del estudio, hipótesis, planteo de objetivos, materiales y métodos a utilizar, resultados esperados, importancia del proyecto (extensión del campo 4000 caracteres). Proyecto diseñado para aportar al conocimiento de los procesos adaptativos y la dinámica biosocial de las sociedades del pasado prehistórico argentino. Propone analizar y evaluar el potencial documental de los restos bioarqueológicos con fehaciente asociación contextual para posibilitar la realización de inferencias sobre procesos biosociales de naturaleza adaptativa o no adaptativa. Está centrado en el análisis osteológico y biocultural de materiales esqueletales (aproximadamente cien individuos) correspondientes a poblaciones aborígenes prehistóricas del actual territorio de la provincia de La Pampa (Médano Petroquímica, Departamento Puelén). Entre otros muchos aspectos, la importancia de estos materiales reside en que son asignables a sociedades con economía cazadora-recolectora y cuya cronología corresponde al Holoceno tardío final (Entierros datados en 393 ± 41 cal AP AMS.), una época particularmente interesante por la dinámica sucesión de eventos socioculturales y poblacionales que la caracterizan. La evidencia recuperada da cuenta de prácticas funerarias complejas que consisten en la realización de enterratorios colectivos, indirectos, secundarios, y presencia de eventos de violencia y/o tensión social. Los métodos y técnicas consisten en la descripción e identificación basados en observación y registro de marcadores esqueléticos conforme a prácticas estándares de nuestro laboratorio: Planillas de observación y registro durante excavaciones de la Archaeological Summer Field School (ASFS) de la Universidad de Chicago y planillas de los “Standards” de Buikstra y Ubelaker, modificadas y adaptadas por nuestro grupo de trabajo, entre otros). Los datos obtenidos serán empleados para graficación (estadística descriptiva) y también se realizará sobre ellos análisis multivariados y estadística no paramétrica (etapa inferencial). Se tendrán en cuenta aspectos descriptivos y analíticos vinculados con el reconocimiento de la edad y el sexo, hábitos dietarios (marcadores morfológicos y químicos de hueso y dientes), economía de subsistencia, patrones de diferenciación social, exploración de eventuales relaciones de parentesco, roles vinculados con el sexo, el uso del cuerpo, dieta, salud y enfermedad, en relación con la economía de subsistencia, etc. (Buikstra y Beck 2006, Larsen, 1997, White y Folkens 2000). Dado la naturaleza y complejidad de los hallazgos, caracterizados por la conformación de entierros colectivos secundarios e indirectos, un capítulo de interés lo constituye el análisis de las dimensiones sociales del comportamiento mortuorio y la discusión de los indicadores de violencia y/o tensión social asociados a los hallazgos (O´Shea 1984, Rakita et al. 2005, entre otros). Dado el hecho de que se cuenta con la disponibilidad de materiales adecuados para este tipo de estudios, la información relevante y los datos a analizar serán obtenidos mediante la aplicación de métodos y técnicas bioarqueológicas específicas antes mencionados, con la finalidad de observar y discutir tendencias y proponer modelos de interpretación sujetos a ulterior validación, particularmente toda vez que se cuente con una mayor representación numérica y casuística tanto a nivel de individuos como de sitios bioarqueológicos excavados. El proyecto se enmarca en la firma de un Convenio Específico de Trabajo entre la UNRC y el Gobierno de La Pampa. Palabras clave: Ingrese hasta 5 palabras clave, distintas de las utilizadas en el título del proyecto y que describan la naturaleza del objeto de estudio. bioarqueología economía cazadora-recolectora adaptación biosocial comportamiento mortuorio Violencia y tensión social. Abstract: Resumen del proyecto en inglés (extensión del campo 2000 caracteres). This project has been designed to improve the knoledge on adaptive processes and biosocial dynamics among aborigine past societies in Argentina. This research is focused on the analysis and evaluation of documentary potential of bioarchaeological skeletal remains with reliable contextual associations. It is specifically centered in the osteological as well as cultural analysis of more than one hundred skeletons from native prehistoric populations from a prehistoric collective burial site in La Pampa province. (Médano Petroquímica, Departamento Puelén). Among other aspects, the importance of the materials to be analyzed lies in the fact that they correspond to a subsistence economy based on hunting and gathering, and have been chronologically assigned to Late Holocene times (burials dated 393 ± 41 cal AP AMS), a period denoting particular interest due to the dynamic succession of sociocultural events that characterized it. Evidence so far recovered accounts for complex funerary practices consisting of indirect, secondary collective burials, as well as the presence of events of violence and/o social tension. Methods and techniques consist in the description and identification based on the observation, and recording of skeletal markers, according to laboratory as well as field work standards: The University of Chicago Archaeological Summer Field School (ASFS) forms, and the “Standards” forms from Buikstra y Ubelaker (1994), modified and adapted by our research team, among others. Data obtained shall be used for graphic (descriptive statistics) as well as multivariate analyses and non parametric statistics (inferential stage). Descriptive as well as analytical aspects such as those related to age and sex determination, feeding habits (morphological as well as chemical markers of bones and teeth), subsistence economy, patterns of social differentiation, kinship patterns, sex-linked roles, body use, diet, health and disease, all of them in close relationship with the hunter-gatherer subsistence economy (Buikstra y Beck 2006, Larsen, 1997, White y Folkens 2000). Given the nature and complexity of the burial disposals, characterized by complex collective burials, a core chapter of our interest is that of social dimensions of mortuary behavior as well as the discussion and interpretation of markers of violence and/or social tension. Given the amount of evidence gathered so far, relevant information as well as data to be analyzed will be obtained by specific bioarchaeological methods and techniques, trying to observe and discuss possible trends as well as to formulate interpretive models to be verified or rejected with the arrival of new, reliable data both at individual level as well as at the archaeological sites to be excavated. This project has been particularly considered in a bilateral agreement between UNRC and the Government of La Pampa Province.

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El virus del papiloma humano (VPH) es una de las de infecciones de transmisión sexual (ITS) más frecuentes [1]. Varios genotipos de VPH pueden generar verrugas genitales, y otros están fuertemente asociados a displasia cervical, cáncer de cuello uterino, de vulva, ano, pene y de orofaringe. La alta prevalencia de la infección por este virus en caso de lesiones bucal premalignas indica que la infección podría ser un evento temprano en el proceso de transformación maligna de las c. Epitelial de la cavidad bucal. La asociación epidemiológica del VPH con Carcinoma de Células escamosa, así como la evidencia biológica dado por la transformación de las células epitelial por oncogenes del virus sugiere que los VPH específicos son importantes para el proceso de malignización, sin que este determine el tamaño ni el estado del tumor. Objetivos 1) Analizar el grado de conocimiento de la población incluida en una encuesta, respecto de las vías de transmisión del VPH, los métodos de prevención, los factores de riesgo y su asociación con las verrugas genitales y el cáncer de cuello de útero, ano, pene y de orofaringe. 2) Determinar la prevalencia y genotipos del VPH en lesiones preneoplásicas y neoplásicas de las vías aerodigestivas superiores de pacientes adultos que acuden a la Fac de Odontología y evaluar los factores de riesgo asociados (sexuales, hhábito de fumar, etc) 3) Determinar la prevalencia y genotipos del VPH en mucosa sana y que presenten lesiones de pacientes pediátricos que acuden a la Facultad de Odontología de la U.N.C.; Servicio del Hospital de Niños de la Pcia de Córdoba y evaluar los factores de riesgo asociados (sexuales, otras ITS por ej: C.trachomatis, M.genital) MATERIALES Y METODOS: Objetivo 1: Se entregará un cuestionario de 28 ítems, con carácter anónimo no vinculante, a estudiantes (mayores de 18 años de edad) universitarios de primer año de las carreras de Medicina, Odontología, FAMAF, Psicopedagogía del Inst Sup Dr. D.Cabred, de la catedra Bacteriologia y Virologia de la F.C.M., pacientes que asisten a los servicios de: Infectología y Ginecología del H.N.C., Ginecología e Infectología del Hospital Italiano, Urología del Hospital San Roque, Ginecología del H.M.N., Lab de Andrología y Reproducción y Lab de Chlamydias y HPV del Instituto de Virología y a empleados y afiliados que asisten a APROSS. Objetivo 2/3: Las muestras con PAP, serán receptadas en 500µl de PBS, luego se extraerá ADN, utilizando un equipo comercial (Bioneer). Se amplificará por PCR, un segmento (450 pb), correspondientes a la región L1 del genoma viral, utilizando los llamados “primer” degenerados MY09 y MY11. La amplificación del gen de la beta-globina se utilizará para comprobar la presencia de un templado; a partir de los productos VPH positivos se realizará digestión enzimática (BamHI, HaeIII, HinfI, PstI, RsaI, DdeI y Sau3A1) lo que permitirá la identificación del genotipo a por RFLP en gel de agarosa al 2%. Se utilizará para el análisis estadístico el programa Epi Info versión 3.5.1 2008 (http://www.cdc.gov/epiinfo/). Se alinearán las secuencias de ADN empleando el programa Clustal X (23). Las secuencias serán utilizadas para genotipificación por métodos filogenético [o utilizando la herramienta de genotipificación viral del NCBI (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/projects/genotyping/formpage.cgi)] El análisis filogenético se realizará empleando el Programa MEGA 3 (11) empleando la metodología de Neighbor Joining y se evaluarán por Bootstrap. Resultados esperados:La encuesta brindará datos que se podrán aprovechar para los programas de prevención de la infección con VPH. Se podrá determinar cuáles son los genotipos circulantes en nuestra población y cuáles son los factores de riesgo asociados. Se podrá establecer cuáles son los genotipos asociados a las lesiones preneoplásicas y neoplásicas de la mucosa oral, y determinar la probabilidad de que la vacunación contra los VPH 6, 11, 16 y 18 pueda prevenir la aparición de estas lesiones.

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Stand alone solar powered refrigeration and water desalination, two of the most popular and sought after applications of solar energy systems, have been selected as the topic of research for the works presented in this thesis. The water desalination system based on evaporation and condensation was found to be the most suitable one to be powered by solar energy. It has been established that highoutput fast-response solar heat collectors used to achieve high rates of evaporation and reliable solar powered cooling system for faster rates of condensation are the most important factors in achieving increased outputs in solar powered desalination systems. Comprehensive reviews of Solar powered cooling/refrigeration and also water desalination techniques have been presented. In view of the fact that the Institute of Technology, Sligo has a well-established long history of research and development in the production of state of the art high-efficiency fast-response evacuated solar heat collectors it was decided to use this know how in the work described in this thesis. For this reason achieving high rates of evaporation was not a problem. It was, therefore, the question of the solar powered refrigeration that was envisaged to be used in the solar powered desalination tofacilitate rapid condensation of the evaporated water that had to be addressed first. The principles of various solar powered refrigeration techniques have also been reviewed. The first step in work on solar powered refrigeration was to successfully modify a conventional refrigerator working on Platen-Munters design to be powered by highoutput fast-response evacuated solar heat collectors. In this work, which was the first ever successful attempt in the field, temperatures as low as —19°C were achieved in the icebox. A new approach in the use of photovoltaic technology to power a conventional domestic refrigerator was also attempted. This was done by modifying a conventional domestic refrigerator to be powered by photovoltaic panels in the most efficient way. In the system developed and successfully tested in this approach, the power demand has been reduced phenomenally and it is possible to achieve 48 hours of cooling power with exposure to just 7 hours of sunshine. The successful development of the first ever multi-cycle intermittent solar powered icemaker is without doubt the most exciting breakthrough in the work described in this thesis. Output of 74.3kg of ice per module with total exposure area of 2.88 m2, or 25.73kg per m2, per day is a major improvement in comparison to about 5-6kg of ice per m2 per day reported for all the single cycle intermittent systems. This system has then become the basis for the development of a new solar powered refrigeration system with even higher output, named the “composite” system described in this thesis. Another major breakthrough associated with the works described in this thesis is the successful development and testing of the high-output water desalination system. This system that uses a combination of the high-output fast-response evacuated solar heat collectors and the multi-cycle icemaker. The system is capable of producing a maximum of 141 litres of distilled water per day per module which has an exposure area of 3.24m2, or a production rate of 43.5 litres per m2 per day. Once again when this result is compared to the reported daily output of 5 litres of desalinated water per m per day the significance of this piece of work becomes apparent. In the presentation of many of the components and systems described in this thesis CAD parametric solid modelling has been used instead of photographs to illustrate them more clearly. The multi-cycle icemaker and the high-output desalination systems are the subject of two patent applications.

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FUNDAMENTO: Escores de risco apresentam dificuldades para obter o mesmo desempenho em diferentes populações. OBJETIVO: Criar um modelo simples e acurado para avaliação do risco nos pacientes operados de doença coronariana e/ou valvar no Instituto do Coração da Universidade de São Paulo (InCor-HCFMUSP). MÉTODOS: Entre 2007 e 2009, 3.000 pacientes foram operados consecutivamente de doença coronariana e/ou valvar no InCor-HCFMUSP. Desse registro, dados de 2/3 dos pacientes foram utilizados para desenvolvimento do modelo (técnica de bootstrap) e de 1/3 para validação interna do modelo. O desempenho do modelo (InsCor) foi comparado aos complexos 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) e EuroSCORE (ES). RESULTADOS: Apenas 10 variáveis foram selecionadas: Idade > 70 anos; sexo feminino; cirurgia de revascularização coronariana + valva; infarto de miocárdio < 90 dias; reoperação; tratamento cirúrgico da valva aórtica; tratamento cirúrgico da valva tricúspide; creatinina < 2mg/dL; fração de ejeção < 30%; e eventos. O teste de Hosmer Lemeshow para o InsCor foi de 0,184, indicando uma excelente calibração. A área abaixo da curva ROC foi de 0,79 para o InsCor, 0,81 para o ES e 0,82 para o 2000BP, confirmando que os modelos são bons e similares na discriminação. CONCLUSÕES: O InsCor e o ES tiveram melhor desempenho que o 2000BP em todas as fases da validação; pórem o novo modelo, além de se identificar com os fatores de risco locais, é mais simples e objetivo para a predição de mortalidade nos pacientes operados de doença coronariana e/ou valvar no InCor-HCFMUSP.

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Background:Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in the western world and its treatment should be optimized to decrease severe adverse events.Objective:To determine the effect of previous use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors on cardiac troponin I measurement in patients with acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation and evaluate clinical outcomes at 180 days.Methods:Prospective, observational study, carried out in a tertiary center, in patients with acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation. Clinical, electrocardiographic and laboratory variables were analyzed, with emphasis on previous use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and cardiac troponin I. The Pearson chi-square tests (Pereira) or Fisher's exact test (Armitage) were used, as well as the non-parametric Mann-Whitney's test. Variables with significance levels of <10% were submitted to multiple logistic regression model.Results:A total of 457 patients with a mean age of 62.1 years, of whom 63.7% were males, were included. Risk factors such as hypertension (85.3%) and dyslipidemia (75.9%) were the most prevalent, with 35% of diabetics. In the evaluation of events at 180 days, there were 28 deaths (6.2%). The statistical analysis showed that the variables that interfered with troponin elevation (> 0.5 ng / mL) were high blood glucose at admission (p = 0.0034) and ST-segment depression ≥ 0.5 mm in one or more leads (p = 0.0016). The use of angiotensin-converting inhibitors prior to hospitalization was associated with troponin ≤ 0.5 ng / mL (p = 0.0482). The C-statistics for this model was 0.77.Conclusion:This study showed a correlation between prior use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and reduction in the myocardial necrosis marker troponin I in patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome without ST-segment elevation. However, there are no data available yet to state that this reduction could lead to fewer severe clinical events such as death and re-infarction at 180 days.

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Background: Several researchers seek methods for the selection of homogeneous groups of animals in experimental studies, a fact justified because homogeneity is an indispensable prerequisite for casualization of treatments. The lack of robust methods that comply with statistical and biological principles is the reason why researchers use empirical or subjective methods, influencing their results. Objective: To develop a multivariate statistical model for the selection of a homogeneous group of animals for experimental research and to elaborate a computational package to use it. Methods: The set of echocardiographic data of 115 male Wistar rats with supravalvular aortic stenosis (AoS) was used as an example of model development. Initially, the data were standardized, and became dimensionless. Then, the variance matrix of the set was submitted to principal components analysis (PCA), aiming at reducing the parametric space and at retaining the relevant variability. That technique established a new Cartesian system into which the animals were allocated, and finally the confidence region (ellipsoid) was built for the profile of the animals’ homogeneous responses. The animals located inside the ellipsoid were considered as belonging to the homogeneous batch; those outside the ellipsoid were considered spurious. Results: The PCA established eight descriptive axes that represented the accumulated variance of the data set in 88.71%. The allocation of the animals in the new system and the construction of the confidence region revealed six spurious animals as compared to the homogeneous batch of 109 animals. Conclusion: The biometric criterion presented proved to be effective, because it considers the animal as a whole, analyzing jointly all parameters measured, in addition to having a small discard rate.