Health care provider choice in the case of patient-initiated contacts. An extended version of discrete choice of model demand

This paper analyzes the nature of health care provider choice inthe case of patient-initiated contacts, with special reference toa National Health Service setting, where monetary prices are zeroand general practitioners act as gatekeepers to publicly financedspecialized care. We focus our attention on the factors that mayexplain the continuously increasing use of hospital emergencyvisits as opposed to other provider alternatives. An extendedversion of a discrete choice model of demand for patient-initiatedcontacts is presented, allowing for individual and town residencesize differences in perceived quality (preferences) betweenalternative providers and including travel and waiting time asnon-monetary costs. Results of a nested multinomial logit model ofprovider choice are presented. Individual choice betweenalternatives considers, in a repeated nested structure, self-care,primary care, hospital and clinic emergency services. Welfareimplications and income effects are analyzed by computingcompensating variations, and by simulating the effects of userfees by levels of income. Results indicate that compensatingvariation per visit is higher than the direct marginal cost ofemergency visits, and consequently, emergency visits do not appearas an inefficient alternative even for non-urgent conditions.

Malliavin calculus in finance

This article is an introduction to Malliavin Calculus for practitioners.We treat one specific application to the calculation of greeks in Finance.We consider also the kernel density method to compute greeks and anextension of the Vega index called the local vega index.

Swiss consensus statement: Recommendations for optimising re-treatment with MabThera (rituximab) in rheumatoid arthritis.

Rituximab is an effective treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), which has been approved for the treatment of moderate to severe disease in patients with an inadequate response to anti-TNF therapies. Rituximab differs from other available biological agents for RA by way of its unique mode of action and unrivalled long dosing interval. The efficacy of rituximab subsides progressively over time and re-therapy is generally required to maintain long term disease control. The timing of re-treatment is currently not well established and varies widely in clinical practice. The present document is a concise recommendation regarding re-treatment with rituximab, based on validated outcomes such as the DAS28 and the EULAR response criteria. The recommendation was established through consensus between practitioners familiar with rituximab therapy in RA. Optimisation of the rituximab re-treatment schedule may improve patient outcomes and balance risks and benefits for the individual patient.

La chaîne des secours: le modèle vaudois [An efficient example of a Swiss pre-hospital chain of survival: the state of Vaud model].

The state of Vaud model of the pre-hospital chain of survival is an example of an efficient way to deal with pre-hospital emergencies. It revolves around a centrally located dispatch center managing emergencies according to specific key words, allowing dispatchers to send out resources among which we find general practitioners, ambulances, physician staffed fast response cars or physician staffed helicopters and specific equipment. The Vaud pre-hospital chain of survival has been tailored according to geographical, demographical and political necessities. It undergoes constant reassessment and needs continuous adaptations to the ever changing demographics and epidemiology of pre-hospital medicine.

CRIMINAL JUSTICE, VICTIM SUPPORT CENTERS, AND THE EMOTIONAL WELLBEING OF CRIME VICTIMS

SUMMARY (Français au-dessous)After the Second World War, the role of the victim in criminal conflict became an objectof interest for academics. But it was only in the 1960s that the importance of providingprotection and assistance to crime victims was highlighted in particular by the victims'movement, which inaugurated a new era of criminal justice in systems throughout the world.Moving beyond just the role of controlling crime and punishing the offender, the criminaljustice system also began to contribute to the victims' rehabilitation and to help the victim tomove on from the event psychologically and emotionally.Although some criminological research has been conducted, to date the effect that thecriminal justice system and victim support services have on the well-being of crime victims isstill uncertain.The current study sought to understand better the healing process of victims of crime, thepotential consequences of their participation on the criminal justice system, and the supportof victim centers. Moreover, it aimed to find out whether the existence of a Victim SupportAct would change the treatment that the victim receives in the criminal justice system. Thusthis research was conducted based in two countries - Switzerland and Brazil - where theoutcome of the victims' movement on the criminal justice system was different, as was theparticipation of the victim in the criminal justice system and the government's provision ofsupport.In order to conduct this research we employed the qualitative method, which is the mostefficient to gather sensitive information. Interviews with crime victims were the main sourceof information. Hearing observation and document research were used as complementarysources.The results of this research show that victims who have contact with the criminal justicesystem and victim services are not more likely to recover than those who had no contact. Thisis to say, the support offered has no major effects; the influence of the criminal justice systemand the victim support services in the emotional well-being of crime victims is rather neutral.However, considering that the sample is not representative, findings are not expected to begeneralized. Instead, findings may give insight to practitioners or to future criminal justicepolicy makers, suggesting what may work to improve the emotional well-being of crimevictims, as well as suggesting further studies.________________________________________________________________________________RÉSUMÉAprès la deuxième guerre mondiale, le rôle de la victime est devenu un objet d'intérêtpour les académiciens. Par contre, c'est seulement dans les années 60 que l'importance defournir de la protection et de l'appui aux victimes d'infractions a été accentuée, en particulierpar un mouvement ― victims' mouvement ―, qui a inauguré un nouveau temps dans lajustice pénale des systèmes juridiques du monde entier. A part la fonction de contrôler lecrime et de punir le délinquant, le système de justice pénale joue également un rôle dans laréhabilitation des victimes.Malgré la réalisation de plusieurs recherches criminologiques sur ce sujet, les effets que lesystème de la justice pénale et les centres d'aides aux victimes ont sur le bien-être desvictimes d'infractions est encore incertain.Ainsi cette étude cherche à mieux comprendre le processus de réhabilitation des victimesd'infraction, les conséquences de leur participation dans le système de justice pénale ainsique la portée de l'appui des centres d'aide. De plus, l'étude vise à découvrir si l'existenced'une loi d'aide aux victimes, particulièrement la Loi d'Aide aux Victimes d'InfractionsLAVI, est susceptible de changer le traitement que la victime reçoit dans le système de lajustice pénale. Pour cela, elle a été conduite dans deux pays - la Suisse et le Brésil - où lesconséquences du mouvement des victimes sur le système de la justice pénale a eu undéveloppement différent; il en va de même pour la participation de la victime dans laprocédure pénale et pour l'appui offert par l'Etat.Cette étude utilise la méthode qualitative qui est la plus efficace pour le recueild'informations sensibles. La plus importante source des données sont les interviews avec lesvictimes. L'observation des audiences et l'analyse de documents ont été utilisés en tant quesources d'information complementáire.Les résultats de cette recherche montrent que les victimes qui ont porté plainte et qui ontreçu l'appui des centres d'aides ne sont pas mieux rétablies que celles qui n'ont rien fait. C'estainsi que nous avons conclu que les services offerts n'ont aucune influence dans ce processus.Cependant, considérant que notre échantillon n'est pas représentatif, il n'est pas possible degénéraliser nos résultats. Néanmoins, ceux-ci peuvent éclairer les praticiens ou les futursdécideurs politiques de la justice pénale, suggérant ce qui peut fonctionner pour lerétablissement des victimes d'infraction, aussi bien que suggérer d'autres études.

Workshop: Capacity building for national public health advocacy: case studies from national associations

The first statement of the EUPHA on the Future of Public Health in Europe refers to the need for going 'to policymakers, politicians and practitioners in all sectors of society and advise them on how to promote public health throughout society'. WHO-EURO Director General Marc Danzon, quoted in the second EUPHA statement on the responsibility of policy makers indicates that 'learning is not systematically applied in health policy development in our continent'. Statement 3 calls for the integration of public health into the political agenda in all sectors. The first EUPHA president, Louise Gunning-Schepers, quoted in Statement 10 called on EUPHA to become 'a powerful advocate of the public health community'. In addition to the above, the EU is now actively seeking ways to build capacity to implement its health strategy. Learning and building the capacity to achieve our aims The aims and objectives to promote the public's health as reflected in EUPHA's 10 statements are also mirrored in the national public health associations. However, many of EUPHA's national associations have little or limited experience in promoting public health policy at the national level. To assist in the learning of advocacy for public health policies, case studies presenting experiences of national public health organizations in lobbying for national public health policy will be presented and discussed. In addition to sharing experiences, the presentations will identify successful approaches to public health advocacy as well as lessons learned from unsuccessful attempts.

Killing by lung cancer or by diabetes? The trade-off between smoking and obesity

As the prevalence of smoking has decreased to below 20%, health practitioners interest has shifted towards theprevalence of obesity, and reducing it is one of the major health challenges in decades to come. In this paper westudy the impact that the final product of the anti-smoking campaign, that is, smokers quitting the habit, had onaverage weight in the population. To these ends, we use data from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System,a large series of independent representative cross-sectional surveys. We construct a synthetic panel that allows us tocontrol for unobserved heterogeneity and we exploit the exogenous changes in taxes and regulations to instrumentthe endogenous decision to give up the habit of smoking. Our estimates, are very close to estimates issued in the 90sby the US Department of Health, and indicate that a 10% decrease in the incidence of smoking leads to an averageweight increase of 2.2 to 3 pounds, depending on choice of specification. In addition, we find evidence that the effectovershoots in the short run, although a significant part remains even after two years. However, when we split thesample between men and women, we only find a significant effect for men. Finally, the implicit elasticity of quittingsmoking to the probability of becoming obese is calculated at 0.58. This implies that the net benefit from reducingthe incidence of smoking by 1% is positive even though the cost to society is $0.6 billions.

The impact of generic reference pricing interventions in the statin market

The objective of this study was to evaluate the intended and unintended impact on pharmaceutical use and sales of three public financing reforms applied to the prescription of statins: a Spanish generic reference pricing (RP) system for lovastatin and simvastatin, and two competing policies introduced by the Andalusian Public Health Service (APHS) for all statins, first a maximum consumer price (MCP) and then a so called quality prescribing incentive for general practitioners (MCP plus PI).This study is designed as an observational, retrospective, interrupted time series analysis with comparison series (APHS and the rest of Spain) of 46 monthly drug use and sales ratios from January 2001 to October 2004 for each active ingredient in the group of statins.RP has been effective at reducing the volume of sales growth of the off-patent statins, yet its overall impact on sales of all statins has been relatively modest. The quantity and volume of sales impact heavily depends on regulatory RP details such as when the system is introduced, how often it is updated, and how the reference price is calculated.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

International accounting harmonisation - A comparison of Spain, Sweden and Austria

Despite attempts to secure harmonisation of accounting practice,significant variations in accounting rules and practice continueto arise in European countries, variations which give rise tocompliance costs for multinational companies.Firstly, this paper considers the relevance of internationalaccounting harmonisation for European business. It then proceedsto examine accounting regulation in three countries: Spain, Swedenand Austria, highlighting the key regulatory issues of the 'trueand fair' view requirement and the link between taxation andaccounting. The three countries are selected because of theinteresting contrasts which they provide; these contrasts areexamined in detail in the paper.The work is based upon a series of interviews carried out withleading accounting practitioners in the three countries during1996-97.The paper concludes that there are significant obstacles toaccounting harmonisation in Europe and that there is potentialfor continuing diversity of national accounting practice.

European Council of Legal Medicine (ECLM) accreditation of forensic pathology services in Europe.

Forensic experts play a major role in the legal process as they offer professional expert opinion and evidence within the criminal justice system adjudicating on the innocence or alleged guilt of an accused person. In this respect, medico-legal examination is an essential part of the investigation process, determining in a scientific way the cause(s) and manner of unexpected and/or unnatural death or bringing clinical evidence in case of physical, psychological, or sexual abuse in living people. From a legal perspective, these types of investigation must meet international standards, i.e., it should be independent, effective, and prompt. Ideally, the investigations should be conducted by board-certified experts in forensic medicine, endowed with a solid experience in this field, without any hierarchical relationship with the prosecuting authorities and having access to appropriate facilities in order to provide forensic reports of high quality. In this respect, there is a need for any private or public national or international authority including non-governmental organizations seeking experts qualified in forensic medicine to have at disposal a list of specialists working in accordance with high standards of professional performance within forensic pathology services that have been successfully submitted to an official accreditation/certification process using valid and acceptable criteria. To reach this goal, the National Association of Medical Examiners (NAME) has elaborated an accreditation/certification checklist which should be served as decision-making support to assist inspectors appointed to evaluate applicants. In the same spirit than NAME Accreditation Standards, European Council of Legal Medicine (ECLM) board decided to set up an ad hoc working group with the mission to elaborate an accreditation/certification procedure similar to the NAME's one but taking into account the realities of forensic medicine practices in Europe and restricted to post-mortem investigations. This accreditation process applies to services and not to individual practitioners by emphasizing policies and procedures rather than professional performance. In addition, the standards to be complied with should be considered as the minimum standards needed to get the recognition of performing and reliable forensic pathology service.

Sexual behaviour of men that consulted in medical outpatient clinics in Western Switzerland from 2005-2006: risk levels unknown to doctors?

BACKGROUND: To determine male outpatient attenders' sexual behaviours, expectations and experience of talking about their sexuality and sexual health needs with a doctor. METHODS: A survey was conducted among all male patients aged 18-70, recruited from the two main medical outpatient clinics in Lausanne, Switzerland, in 2005-2006. The anonymous self-administered questionnaire included questions on sexual behaviour, HIV/STI information needs, expectations and experiences regarding discussion of sexual matters with a doctor. RESULTS: The response rate was 53.0% (N = 1452). The mean age was 37.7 years. Overall, 13.4% of patients were defined as at STI risk--i.e. having not consistently used condoms with casual partners in the last 6 months, or with a paid partner during the last intercourse--regarding their sexual behaviour in the last year. 90.9% would have liked their physician to ask them questions concerning their sexual life; only 61.4% had ever had such a discussion. The multivariate analysis showed that patients at risk tended to have the following characteristics: recruited from the HIV testing clinic, lived alone, declared no religion, had a low level of education, felt uninformed about HIV/AIDS, were younger, had had concurrent sexual partners in the last 12 months. However they were not more likely to have discussed sexual matters with their doctor than patients not at risk. CONCLUSION: Recording the sexual history and advice on the prevention of the risks of STI should become routine practice for primary health care doctors.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain: a clinical prediction score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Altered vision during motion: an unusual symptom of cerebellar dysfunction, quantifiable by a simple clinical test.

PURPOSE: To report a series of patients with cerebellar dysfunction and altered vision during motion, and to quantify their visual impairment in motion with a simple clinical test. METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients suffering from cerebellar dysfunction and altered vision during motion were examined between 1994 and 2007. A control group consisted of 20 age- and sex-matched healthy people. All patients had a full neuro-ophthalmic examination. Near visual acuity (NVA) was measured at rest (static NVA) and during chair rotation (dynamic NVA). Distance visual acuity (DVA) was measured at rest (static DVA) and during rotation of the patient's head (dynamic DVA). RESULTS: Only four of the 20 patients reported altered vision during motion spontaneously. The remaining 16 patients admitted this unusual visual disturbance only when asked specifically. All patients exhibited abnormal eye movements, including saccadic smooth pursuit (20/20), dysmetric saccades (15/20), nystagmus (19/20) and impaired suppression of vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) (20/20). During rotation of the examination chair (dynamic NVA), the drop in NVA averaged 5.6 lines (range 1-10 lines). During rotation of the patient's head (dynamic DVA), the drop in DVA averaged only 2.5 lines (range 0-10 lines). For the control group, there was no significant drop in NVA under dynamic conditions. CONCLUSION: Patients with cerebellar dysfunction rarely complain spontaneously of altered vision during motion. However, specific questioning may bring up this unusual symptom. The use of a simple clinical test, consisting of NVA measurement during rotation of the examination chair (dynamic NVA), allows practitioners to quantify the level of visual impairment in patients presenting altered VOR modulation.

Spatial analysis of corresponding fingerprint features from match and close non-match populations

The development of statistical models for forensic fingerprint identification purposes has been the subject of increasing research attention in recent years. This can be partly seen as a response to a number of commentators who claim that the scientific basis for fingerprint identification has not been adequately demonstrated. In addition, key forensic identification bodies such as ENFSI [1] and IAI [2] have recently endorsed and acknowledged the potential benefits of using statistical models as an important tool in support of the fingerprint identification process within the ACE-V framework. In this paper, we introduce a new Likelihood Ratio (LR) model based on Support Vector Machines (SVMs) trained with features discovered via morphometric and spatial analyses of corresponding minutiae configurations for both match and close non-match populations often found in AFIS candidate lists. Computed LR values are derived from a probabilistic framework based on SVMs that discover the intrinsic spatial differences of match and close non-match populations. Lastly, experimentation performed on a set of over 120,000 publicly available fingerprint images (mostly sourced from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) datasets) and a distortion set of approximately 40,000 images, is presented, illustrating that the proposed LR model is reliably guiding towards the right proposition in the identification assessment of match and close non-match populations. Results further indicate that the proposed model is a promising tool for fingerprint practitioners to use for analysing the spatial consistency of corresponding minutiae configurations.