Residential planning, driver mobility and CO2 emission

The literature on residences and citizens’ transports has focused on either reforming traffic managing in response to residential relocation or post-evaluation of urban planning policies or the evolution of the urban spatial form. In a city there are hotspots that attract the citizens and most of the transportation in the city arises as the citizens’ movement between their residence and the hotspots. Little scholarly attention has been devoted to the possibility to minimize citizens’ transportation in the city by the urban planning of residential areas. In this paper we propose a method to evaluate the environmental impact (in terms of CO2-emissions) of urban plans of residential areas. The method is illustrated in a Swedish case of a midsize city which is presently preoccupied with urban planning of new residential areas in response to substantial population growth due to immigration. The residential plans aims to increase the compactness and residential density in the current center and sub centers leads to less CO2 emissions compare to urban expansion to the edge of the city. The plans of concentrated apartment buildings are more effective in meeting residential needs and mitigating CO2 emissions than dispersed single-family houses.

Age-Specific Fertility Dynamics: Sub-Saharan African Fertility in a Global Context

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Big bang bifurcations in von Bertalanffy’s dynamics with strong and weak Allee effects

The main purpose of this work was to study population dynamic discrete models in which the growth of the population is described by generalized von Bertalanffy's functions, with an adjustment or correction factor of polynomial type. The consideration of this correction factor is made with the aim to introduce the Allee effect. To the class of generalized von Bertalanffy's functions is identified and characterized subclasses of strong and weak Allee's functions and functions with no Allee effect. This classification is founded on the concepts of strong and weak Allee's effects to population growth rates associated. A complete description of the dynamic behavior is given, where we provide necessary conditions for the occurrence of unconditional and essential extinction types. The bifurcation structures of the parameter plane are analyzed regarding the evolution of the Allee limit with the aim to understand how the transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, is realized. To generalized von Bertalanffy's functions with strong and weak Allee effects is identified an Allee's effect region, to which is associated the concepts of chaotic semistability curve and Allee's bifurcation point. We verified that under some sufficient conditions, generalized von Bertalanffy's functions have a particular bifurcation structure: the big bang bifurcations of the so-called box-within-a-box type. To this family of maps, the Allee bifurcation points and the big bang bifurcation points are characterized by the symmetric of Allee's limit and by a null intrinsic growth rate. The present paper is also a significant contribution in the framework of the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous 1D maps and unveil their relationship with the explosion birth and the extinction phenomena.

Energy systems analysis of transboundary river basins in a nexus approach: the Sava river basin study case

Resource management policies are frequently designed and planned to target specific needs of particular sectors, without taking into account the interests of other sectors who share the same resources. In a climate of resource depletion, population growth, increase in energy demand and climate change awareness, it is of great importance to promote the assessment of intersectoral linkages and, by doing so, understand their effects and implications. This need is further augmented when common use of resources might not be solely relevant at national level, but also when the distribution of resources ranges over different nations. This dissertation focuses on the study of the energy systems of five south eastern European countries, which share the Sava River Basin, using a water-food(agriculture)-energy nexus approach. In the case of the electricity generation sector, the use of water is essential for the integrity of the energy systems, as the electricity production in the riparian countries relies on two major technologies dependent on water resources: hydro and thermal power plants. For example, in 2012, an average of 37% of the electricity production in the SRB countries was generated by hydropower and 61% in thermal power plants. Focusing on the SRB, in terms of existing installed capacities, the basin accommodates close to a tenth of all hydropower capacity while providing water for cooling to 42% of the net capacity of thermal power currently in operation in the basin. This energy-oriented nexus study explores the dependency on the basin’s water resources of the energy systems in the region for the period between 2015 and 2030. To do so, a multi-country electricity model was developed to provide a quantification ground to the analysis, using the open-source software modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Three main areas are subject to analysis: first, the impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies in the electricity generation mix; secondly, the potential impacts of climate change under a moderate climate change projection scenario; and finally, deriving from the latter point, the cumulative impact of an increase in water demand in the agriculture sector, for irrigation. Additionally, electricity trade dynamics are compared across the different scenarios under scrutiny, as an effort to investigate the implications of the aforementioned factors in the electricity markets in the region.

Reconfiguração do sistema único de saúde e suas relações intersetoriais no município do Rio Grande: contribuições do enfermeiro

Objetivou-se conhecer o Sistema Único de Saúde e suas relações intersetoriais no município do Rio Grande frente a demanda das necessidades da população em relação à saúde provocadas pelo desenvolvimento socioeconômico previsto e, consequente crescimento populacional; construir uma proposta de reconfiguração do Sistema Único de Saúde no município do Rio Grande, com contribuições do enfermeiro capaz de atender a demanda produzida pelo desenvolvimento socioeconômico e, consequente crescimento populacional e elevar o nível de saúde da população riograndina. Tem-se como Tese: O estudo do Sistema Único de Saúde e suas relações intersetoriais do município do Rio Grande, possibilita a construção de uma proposta de reconfiguração do Sistema Único de Saúde, com contribuições do enfermeiro, capaz de atender a demanda produzida pelo desenvolvimento socioeconômico e consequente crescimento populacional e elevar o nível de saúde da população riograndina. O tema se justifica pelas contribuições que a pesquisa busca apresentar com a finalidade de oferecer subsídios capazes de auxiliar nas escolhas a serem realizadas de forma coletiva em benefício da saúde da população do município do Rio Grande. Alicerçado no conceito ampliado de saúde é indispensável envolver todos os setores, seus serviços e ações, do município do Rio Grande e apreendê-los como pilares essenciais para a efetivação do Sistema Único de Saúde em benefício da população. A visão sistêmica possibilita conhecer e identificar as relações dos setores e seus serviços e ações que contribuem para atender a demanda em saúde produzida pelo desenvolvimento socioeconômico do município, e assim, entender as necessidades desse ecossistema. O referencial teórico-filosófico construído com base em autores sistêmicos, entre eles: Prigogine, Stengers (1997), Santos, Siqueira, Silva (2009), Prigogine (2009, 2011), Capra (2012), Bertalanffy (2013), foi capaz de dar sustentabilidade a pesquisa com enfoque ecossistêmico. Como caminho metodológico foi empregado o método de análise de conteúdo (AC) ancorado em Bardin (2011). A pesquisa foi do tipo descritivo, exploratório, com abordagem qualitativa. A coleta de dados, envolvendo o contexto do município do Rio Grande/RS, foi realizada por meio de entrevista semi- estruturada, buscando fundamentar a questão de pesquisa, pressupostos, objetivos e especialmente a TESE. O lócus do estudo foi o município do Rio Grande/ RS, mais especificamente, junto aos setores produtivos (secretarias municipais) que compõem a comuna e órgãos integrantes da saúde que oferecem atendimento à população por meio do Sistema Único de Saúde. Os dados evidenciaram que o município encontra-se em estado de alerta, preocupado e até mesmo assustado com as modificações e transformações que estão acontecendo, produzidas pelo desenvolvimento socioeconômico e crescimento populacional como conseqüência da implantação do pólo naval. Na tentativa de equacionar os impactos nos diferentes segmentos criaram diversas estratégias, destacando-se a criação do Grupo de Trabalho e Desenvolvimento, como fórum de discussão. A intersetorialidade entre os setores do município despontou como estratégia importante alcançando bons resultados. A enfermagem, com base nos dados, encontra-se inserida nesse contexto, qualificada e pronta a exercer a sua função e enfrentar os desafios da demanda em saúde.

Climate Change or Urbanization? Impacts on a Traditional Coffee Production System in East Africa over the Last 80 Years

Global environmental changes (GEC) such as climate change (CC) and climate variability have serious impacts in the tropics, particularly in Africa. These are compounded by changes in land use/land cover, which in turn are driven mainly by economic and population growth, and urbanization. These factors create a feedback loop, which affects ecosystems and particularly ecosystem services, for example plant-insect interactions, and by consequence agricultural productivity. We studied effects of GEC at a local level, using a traditional coffee production area in greater Nairobi, Kenya. We chose coffee, the most valuable agricultural commodity worldwide, as it generates income for 100 million people, mainly in the developing world. Using the coffee berry borer, the most serious biotic threat to global coffee production, we show how environmental changes and different production systems (shaded and sun-grown coffee) can affect the crop. We combined detailed entomological assessments with historic climate records (from 1929-2011), and spatial and demographic data, to assess GEC's impact on coffee at a local scale. Additionally, we tested the utility of an adaptation strategy that is simple and easy to implement. Our results show that while interactions between CC and migration/urbanization, with its resultant landscape modifications, create a feedback loop whereby agroecosystems such as coffee are adversely affected, bio-diverse shaded coffee proved far more resilient and productive than coffee grown in monoculture, and was significantly less harmed by its insect pest. Thus, a relatively simple strategy such as shading coffee can tremendously improve resilience of agro-ecosystems, providing small-scale farmers in Africa with an easily implemented tool to safeguard their livelihoods in a changing climate.

O potencial energético do gradiente térmico na plataforma continental do sul do brasil

O crescimento da demanda energética, prevista para a metade do século XXI, com números embasados no crescimento demográfico e de consumo dos países em desenvol- vimento, sugere a busca por fontes energéticas renováveis e de menor impacto ao meio ambiente, conforme os tratados da política internacional. Portanto, o fornecimento de energia suplementar se torna vital nas sociedades modernas e sua extensão até o mar tem se constituído uma recente preocupação do ponto de vista enérgico e ecológico. Várias formas de conversão de energia foram desenvolvidas no decorrer dos anos, com destaque para a energia dos gradientes térmicos. A Plataforma Continental Sul do Bra- sil (PSCB) possui alta variabilidade espacial e temporal nos campos de temperatura, de forma que existe a necessidade de uma análise das regiões de maior potencial energético com respeito ao gradiente vertical de temperatura. Neste estudo, foram utilizados dados do modelo OCCAM com uma grade de resolu- ção horizontal de 0, 25o e resolução vertical de 66 níveis, distribuídos ao longo de um sistema de coordenadas vertical. Foram utilizadas imagens de temperatura superfícial do mar (TSM) obtidas a partir do sensor AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Ra- diometer) de forma a realizar a validação dos dados do modelo OCCAM. A análise da média dos dados do modelo indicou um sítio energético de maior viabilidade devido oC ao padrão médio do gradiente térmico de aproximadamente 0, 17 ao longo da coluna vertical (545 m de profundidade) no oceano. Neste local, foram coletados os dados, e aplicados a um módulo de conversão de energia térmica dos oceanos que vem sendo desenvolvido na Universidade Federal do Rio Grande - FURG. A região de estudo de- monstrou possuir um local com ótimo potencial energético, onde a produção máxima de energia pode alcançar 111, 9MW , associada com um padrão variabilidade tempo- ral dominante de 12 meses. Este sítio energético demonstra maior eficiência durante o período de verão e outono ao longo dos anos e sua média para todo o período é de 94, 3MW . Neste estudo, duas correntes: Corrente do Brasil (CB) e a Contra Corrente Costeira (CCC), com águas de origem tropical e subantártica com aportes continentais, respecti- vamente, tem alta correlação com os valores dos gradientes térmicos e com os significa- tivos eventos de conversão energética. O sítio energético demonstrou alta estabilidade à sazonalidade e à gama de eventos meteorológicos e oceanográficos, de forma que pode ser qualificado como uma fonte suplementar a matriz energética do país para um futuro próximo.

Analyzing change in medication use - statistical approaches

The objective of this study was to gain an understanding of the effects of population heterogeneity, missing data, and causal relationships on parameter estimates from statistical models when analyzing change in medication use. From a public health perspective, two timely topics were addressed: the use and effects of statins in populations in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and polypharmacy in older population. Growth mixture models were applied to characterize the accumulation of cardiovascular and diabetes medications among apparently healthy population of statin initiators. The causal effect of statin adherence on the incidence of acute cardiovascular events was estimated using marginal structural models in comparison with discrete-time hazards models. The impact of missing data on the growth estimates of evolution of polypharmacy was examined comparing statistical models under different assumptions for missing data mechanism. The data came from Finnish administrative registers and from the population-based Geriatric Multidisciplinary Strategy for the Good Care of the Elderly study conducted in Kuopio, Finland, during 2004–07. Five distinct patterns of accumulating medications emerged among the population of apparently healthy statin initiators during two years after statin initiation. Proper accounting for time-varying dependencies between adherence to statins and confounders using marginal structural models produced comparable estimation results with those from a discrete-time hazards model. Missing data mechanism was shown to be a key component when estimating the evolution of polypharmacy among older persons. In conclusion, population heterogeneity, missing data and causal relationships are important aspects in longitudinal studies that associate with the study question and should be critically assessed when performing statistical analyses. Analyses should be supplemented with sensitivity analyses towards model assumptions.

Otimização e validação de metodologia analítica empregando SPE e LC-ESI-MS/MS para determinação de multiclasses de agrotóxicos e metabólitos em água de superfície e de abastecimento público

A aplicação de agrotóxicos nas práticas agrícolas aumentou muito nos últimos anos. Isto vem ocorrendo devido ao crescimento populacional, demandando maior produção de alimentos. O uso de agrotóxicos e seus resíduos tornaram-se um problema devido a possível contaminação das águas de superfície e subterrânea, podendo impactar o meio ambiente e causar danos à saúde pública. Na cidade de Rio Grande, RS, Brasil, o suprimento de água potável é realizado pela CORSAN (Companhia Riograndense de Saneamento), que capta a água do Canal São Gonçalo, o qual estabelece uma ligação entre as duas lagoas: Lagoa dos Patos e Lagoa Mirim. Em suas margens há também a captação de água para irrigação das culturas agrícolas. Esta interação entre o uso da água das lagoas e a agricultura, pode resultar na contaminação das águas que são captadas para abastecimento dos municípios situados na região. Uma metodologia analítica empregando Extração em Fase Sólida (SPE) e Cromatografia Líquida acoplada a uma fonte de ionização por Electrospray tandem Espectrometria de Massas (LCESI-MS/MS) foi desenvolvida e validada para a determinação de dezoito agrotóxicos multiclasses (herbicidas, inseticidas e fungicidas) e dois metabólitos em amostras de água superficial e de abastecimento público. Esta metodologia foi aplicada para monitoramento durante dez meses na água superficial do Canal São Gonçalo e na água de consumo da cidade de Rio Grande, após o tratamento pela CORSAN. Os agrotóxicos selecionados foram: clomazona, bispiribaque-sódio, diurom, atrazina, simazina, imazetapir, imazapique, metsulfuron-metílico, quincloraque, penoxsulam, 2,4-D, pirazosulfuron-etílico, bentazona, propanil, irgarol, tebuconazol, fipronil e carbofurano. Os metabólitos foram: 3,4-DCA e 3-hidroxicarbofurano. Os limites de detecção do método variaram entre 0,4 – 40,0 ng L -1 , enquanto para os limites de quantificação a variação foi de 4,0 – 100,0 ng L -1 . Todos os compostos apresentaram excelente linearidade, com coeficiente de determinação maior do que 0,99. As recuperações empregando SPE com cartuchos contendo 500 mg de C18ec, variaram entre 70 a 120%, para 95% dos compostos, apresentando %RSD 20%. Através do monitoramento de múltiplas reações (MRM), duas transições diferentes (íon precursor – íon produto) foram selecionadas para cada composto, uma para quantificação e outra para confirmação, o que aumentou a seletividade do método. Para as amostras analisadas, foram detectados agrotóxicos nível de ng L -1 . O método desenvolvido é sensível, rápido e apresenta elevada seletividade, permitindo a identificação e a quantificação dos agrotóxicos em águas superficiais e de abastecimento público, atendendo os níveis requeridos pelos órgãos reguladores como da União Européia (98/83/EC) e do Brasil segundo a Portaria Nº. 518 (25/03/2004).

Material para construção civil a partir de lodo de estação de tratamento de água, lama de polimento de mármore e resíduo de produção de cal

The rapid population growth is the great motivator for the development of the construction industry and the increased demand for drinking water, resulting in a gradual increase in the generation of solid waste. Thus, this work was carried out in order to recycle industrial and municipal wastes incorporating them into materials for civil construction. The composite produced from water treatment sludge and marble polishing mud, applying lime production waste as a binder, was evaluated for its mechanical performance and its morphological structure. The raw materials were characterized for their chemical composition, mineralogy, morphology, particle size and also the moisture content. With the featured materials nine compositions have been developed varying the content of the water treatment sludge between 25 to 50%, marble polishing mud between 35 to 50% and the lime production waste between 10 to 30%. The composites were subjected to mechanical strength tests, water absorption, chemical and mineralogical composition and morphology. The developed materials presented, on the 3rd day of hydration, maximum strength value of 4.65 MPa, the 7th day 6.36 MPa, on the 14th day 6.74 MPa, the 28th day 5.98 MPa, on the 60th day 8.52 MPa at 90th day 11.75 MPa and 180th day 12.06 MPa. The water absorption values after 28 days of hydration ranged from 16.27% to 26.32% and after 90 days, from 13.57% to 23.56%.

Learning Sustainability with EPS@ISEP – Development of an Insectarium

8th International Symposium on Project Approaches in Engineering Education (PAEE)

La expansión urbanizadora en el interior alicantino: indicadores e incertidumbres

El Comité Organizador del XXII Congreso de Geógrafos Españoles, certifica que la siguiente aportación presentada al mencionado congreso, ha sido seleccionada por el Comité Científico "mejor comunicación de autor joven".

A Caputo fractional derivative of a function with respect to another function

In this paper we consider a Caputo type fractional derivative with respect to another function. Some properties, like the semigroup law, a relationship between the fractional derivative and the fractional integral, Taylor’s Theorem, Fermat’s Theorem, etc., are studied. Also, a numerical method to deal with such operators, consisting in approximating the fractional derivative by a sum that depends on the first-order derivative, is presented. Relying on examples, we show the efficiency and applicability of the method. Finally, an application of the fractional derivative, by considering a Population Growth Model, and showing that we can model more accurately the process using different kernels for the fractional operator is provided.

The young, educated, minorities and the poor move out from south central Ethiopia

High population growth fragmented rural landholdings leading to low harvests and crop yields per acre per annum creating surplus labour that may resort to migration as a coping mechanism in least developing countries including Ethiopia. The main aim of the study is to assess trends and differentials of out-migration in south central Ethiopia. The Butajira demographic surveillance system database from 1987 to 2008 was used to conduct event history analysis. There were 3.97 out-migrations per 100 person years. Probability of out-migration was higher among males, teenagers, the youth, completed primary and secondary plus education; not in marital union; Christians, urbanites; lived in rented and owed house compared to their respective counterparts. The higher chances of out-migration among these groups may have social and economic significance.

Impactos ambientales en la microcuenca del río Parafuso, Amazonas oriental, Brasil

The research analyzed the environmental impact on hydrographic microbasin of Parafuso stream at Moju county, Para State, Amazon (Brazil). Data were obtained using digital images, documentary research, questionnaires, semi structured interviews, direct observation and participatory mapping. The results showed that anthropogenic actions and population growth without planning, associated with not planned use of the natural resources, has been caused intense degradation in the physical, biological and anthropogenic environment. The identified springs of the Parafuso stream are difuse, temporary and altered. The parafuso stream network was classified at second order. Most of the environmental impacts identified are adverse character, of great importance, high magnitude and long duration. The physical environment is the most impacted. The major impacting activity is the agriculture, with long term damage in the physical and biological environment, in order of magnitude and importance.