NON-GAUSSIAN STATISTICS OF OIL PRICING TIME-SERIES: A CASE STUDY

The stochastic nature of oil price fluctuations is investigated over a twelve-year period, borrowing feedback from an existing database (USA Energy Information Administration database, available online). We evaluate the scaling exponents of the fluctuations by employing different statistical analysis methods, namely rescaled range analysis (R/S), scale windowed variance analysis (SWV) and the generalized Hurst exponent (GH) method. Relying on the scaling exponents obtained, we apply a rescaling procedure to investigate the complex characteristics of the probability density functions (PDFs) dominating oil price fluctuations. It is found that PDFs exhibit scale invariance, and in fact collapse onto a single curve when increments are measured over microscales (typically less than 30 days). The time evolution of the distributions is well fitted by a Levy-type stable distribution. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer. Our results also exhibit a degree of multifractality as the PDFs change and converge toward to a Gaussian distribution at the macroscales.

Review and meta-analysis of the short-term effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on food intake

Several short-term studies have investigated the effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on subsequent food intake, although findings have been inconsistent. This work aimed to review all studies, and investigate differences in study outcomes based on methodology. All known studies were identified. Data were abstracted from published studies (n = 7). Details of unpublished studies were gained from investigators/sponsors (n = 5), or were unavailable for reasons of confidentiality (n = 4). Available data were combined using meta-analyses. A combined appetite suppressant effect of the emulsion compared with control was found for test meal intake at approximately 4, 12 and 36 h post-treatment: smallest combined mean difference (random effects model) = 0.53 MJ (95% confidence interval 0.20, 0.86), P < 0.01. However, considerable heterogeneity (variability) between study results was also found (smallest I2 = 94%, P < 0.01), questioning the predictive validity of the above findings. Meta-regression suggested this heterogeneity to be related to differences in the processed nature of the product, treatment dose and in particular year of study (smallest B = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.06, 1.03, P = 0.04), although again heterogeneity was found. The only consistent finding was a lack of effect on food intake 4 h post-preload in studies conducted after 2003. These results suggest a small but inconsistent appetite suppressant effect of the vegetable oil emulsion. However, due to the large heterogeneity, no definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Complex sociogenetic organization and the origin of unrelated workers in a eusocial sweat bee, Lasioglossum malachurum

Sweat bees (Halictidae) exhibit great interspecific and intraspecific diversity in their social organisation, yet there is remarkably little information on the sociogenetic organisation of any species. Lasioglossum malachurum is a eusocial sweat bee with an annual lifecycle that exhibits considerable variation in its social organisation across its wide geographic range from northern to southern Europe. We collected all adults from 31 L. malachurum nests at Eichkogl, Austria, near the latitudinal centre of its distribution, and genotyped 148 workers using 5 highly variable microsatellite loci developed for this species. Nests were often queenless (48% of nests) during the second phase of worker activity, when colonies were provisioning the sexual brood. Pedigree reconstruction and estimates of nestmate genetic relatedness demonstrated that nests often (32% of nests) contained alien workers, probably as a result of worker drifting from their natal to a foreign nest. Queen effective mating frequency was variable (harmonic mean m(e) = 1.24), but sometimes high (maximum 2.7). These data demonstrate that nests of L. malachurum do not have a classical eusocial sociogenetic organisation (monogyny, monandry) and thereby pose a challenge to exclusively relatedness based arguments for the evolution of eusociality in the taxon.

Why multiples matter: Reconceptualising the population referred to child and family social workers

Building on a body of previous research by the author and colleagues in relation to multiple adverse childhood experiences (MACE), this paper addresses the question of ‘why multiples matter’ in relation to issues of cumulative adversity. Illustrative evidence is drawn from three research domains, epidemiology, multiple services use and child maltreatment to demonstrate the collective weight of evidence to suggest a targeting of those children and families experiencing multiple adversities to diminish the effects of such adversities realised across the life-course. Whilst the history of previous largely unsuccessful attempts to widen the range of children prioritised for intervention by child and family social workers might lead to pessimism in relation to their ability to respond to a MACE informed public health agenda, there are clear possibilities for developing agency structures, assessment tools and social work practices directed toward meeting the needs of those sub populations already prioritised by social workers: namely Children in Need, Children in need of Protection and Looked after Children.

Body size differs in workers produced across time and is associated with variation in the quantity and composition of larval food in Nannotrigona perilampoides (Hymenoptera, Meliponini)

Although variation in body size has been recently reported in stingless bees (Meliponini), empirical evidence evaluating possible factors related to such variation is lacking, and thus it is not clear if it may have an adaptive significance. We evaluated if variation in the body size and weight of workers of stingless bees fluctuates across a seasonal pattern and if this could be related to characteristics of the food consumed during the larval stage. The weight of larval provisions, their protein, and sugar content were evaluated in four colonies of Nannotrigona perilampoides every 2 months across 1 year. Worker-destined larvae from the same combs were allowed to develop and were sampled as callow workers to determine their weight and size using morphometric data. The weight and size of workers were highly correlated and varied across the seasons in established colonies, suggesting that size variation cycles across the year in stingless bees. An increase in the protein content and, to a lesser degree, the quantity of larval food were positively linked to variation in body weight and size; food with richer protein content resulted in larger and heavier workers. This study provides the first evidence of an effect of the quantity and composition of larval food on the size of workers in stingless bees. Although body weight and size of workers differed across seasons, they were not readily noticeable as changes seem to occur as a continuum across the year. Since size polymorphism was of a larger magnitude across time but not within age cohorts and as it was highly determined by food resources, it may not be an adaptive feature in stingless bees. However, more studies are needed to determine the role of the cyclical change in worker body size on colony performance and thus its adaptive significance in stingless bees.

Numerical simulation of a patent technology for sealing of deep-sea oil wells using nonlinear finite element method

For over 50 years bridge plugs and cement have been used for well abandonment and work over and are still the material of choice. However the failures of cement abandonments using bridge plugs has been reported on many occasions, some of which have resulted in fatal consequences. A new patented product is designed to address the shortcomings associated with using bridge plugs and cement. The new developed tools use an alloy based on bismuth that is melted in situ using Thermite reaction. The tool uses the expansion properties of bismuth to seal the well. Testing the new technology in real field under more than 2 km deep sea water can be expensive. Virtual simulation of the new device under simulated thermal and mechanical environment can be achieved using nonlinear finite element method to validate the product and reduce cost. Experimental testing in the lab is performed to measure heat generated due to thermite reaction. Then, a sequential thermal mechanical explicit/implicit finite element solver is used to simulate the device under both testing lab and deep water conditions.