Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outbound Travel Depends on Business Returns: Australian Evidence

In an earlier note, Collins and Tisdell (2002b) explored the possibility of a long-run relationship between Australian business returns and international business travel. Using annual data they found that such a relationship exists. The purpose of this study is to further examine this relationship using quarterly data for the time frame 1974:1 to 1999:4. In addition, previous studies on international business travel have offered some but not strong evidence for the existence of a positive relationship between the level of international business travel and real GDP of the origin country. This study suggests that the aggregate return on business investments is a better predictor of international business travel than GDP. The Engle-Granger and Johansen's maximum-likelihood cointegration procedures are used to show a long-term relationship exists between Australian outbound business travel and Australian business returns, but not with Real Australian GDP. Reasons for this relationship are discussed.

Improving environmental performance in the tourism accommodation sector

While environmental legislation in Australia regulates tourism development, it is less effective in operational areas because of the dependency of tourism on environmental resources that are not managed by operators, and the small but incremental nature of operational impacts. The absence of functional environmental standards for tourism means that little guidance exists: a problem compounded by variability in the diversity of operation types and receiving environments, as well as the accessibility of information by a non-technical audience. While legislation and economic considerations may provide impetus to adopt environmental practices, it is proposed that an environmental philosophy is necessary for tourism businesses to seek out and maintain alternative sustainable modes of operation. Review of the environmental audit process used by a Queensland resort suggests commitment to continual improvement in environmental performance is attributable to individual and corporate ethics. While the case is an ecotourism operation, the literature indicates that these factors have relevance to tourism generally. Although client satisfaction and return on investment objectives are constraints, environmental auditing can provide impetus for practical expression of environmental objectives. Facilitation of ethically-motivated voluntary action may be more effective in achieving tourism's environmental objectives than codifying standards in static legislation.