Disaster Risk, Livelihoods and Natural Barriers, Strengthening Decision-Making Tools for Disaster Risk Reduction: A case study from northern Pakistan

The goal of this interdisciplinary study is to better understand the land use factors that increase vulnerability of mountain areas in northern Pakistan. The study will identify and analyse the damages and losses caused by the October 2005 earthquake in two areas of the same valley: one "low-risk" watershed with sound natural resources management, the other, "high-risk" in an ecologically degraded watershed. Secondly, the study will examine natural and man-made causes of secondary hazards in the study area, especially landslides; and third it will evaluate the cost of the earthquake damage in the study areas on the livelihoods of local communities and the sub-regional economy. There are few interdisciplinary studies to have correlated community land use practices, resources management, and disaster risk reduction in high-risk mountain areas. By better understanding these linkages, development- humanitarian- and donor agencies focused on disaster reduction can improve their risk reduction programs for mountainous regions.

Tools & Trends, October 2004, Vol. 13, no.3

This is a quarterly newsletter for communities and economic developers in Iowa and surrounding states.

Tools and Trends January 2005

Community Development News from the Iowa Department of Economic Development

Performance of blood pressure-to-height ratio at a single screening visit for the identification of hypertension in children.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of hypertension in children is difficult because of the multiple sex-, age-, and height-specific thresholds to define elevated blood pressure (BP). Blood pressure-to-height ratio (BPHR) has been proposed to facilitate the identification of elevated BP in children. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the performance of BPHR at a single screening visit to identify children with hypertension that is sustained elevated BP. METHOD: In a school-based study conducted in Switzerland, BP was measured at up to three visits in 5207 children. Children had hypertension if BP was elevated at the three visits. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) for the identification of hypertension were assessed for different thresholds of BPHR. The ability of BPHR at a single screening visit to discriminate children with and without hypertension was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. RESULTS: The prevalence of systolic/diastolic hypertension was 2.2%. Systolic BPHR had a better performance to identify hypertension compared with diastolic BPHR (area under the ROC curve: 0.95 vs. 0.84). The highest performance was obtained with a systolic BPHR threshold set at 0.80 mmHg/cm (sensitivity: 98%; specificity: 85%; PPV: 12%; and NPV: 100%) and a diastolic BPHR threshold set at 0.45 mmHg/cm (sensitivity: 79%; specificity: 70%; PPV: 5%; and NPV: 99%). The PPV was higher among tall or overweight children. CONCLUSION: BPHR at a single screening visit had a high performance to identify hypertension in children, although the low prevalence of hypertension led to a low PPV.

Tools & Trends March 2005, Vol. 14, No. 2

Community Development News from the Iowa Department of Economic Development

Suitability of GRIND-based principal properties for the description of molecular similarity and ligand-based virtual screening

The information provided by the alignment-independent GRid Independent Descriptors (GRIND) can be condensed by the application of principal component analysis, obtaining a small number of principal properties (GRIND-PP), which is more suitable for describing molecular similarity. The objective of the present study is to optimize diverse parameters involved in the obtention of the GRIND-PP and validate their suitability for applications, requiring a biologically relevant description of the molecular similarity. With this aim, GRIND-PP computed with a collection of diverse settings were used to carry out ligand-based virtual screening (LBVS) on standard conditions. The quality of the results obtained was remarkable and comparable with other LBVS methods, and their detailed statistical analysis allowed to identify the method settings more determinant for the quality of the results and their optimum. Remarkably, some of these optimum settings differ significantly from those used in previously published applications, revealing their unexplored potential. Their applicability in large compound database was also explored by comparing the equivalence of the results obtained using either computed or projected principal properties. In general, the results of the study confirm the suitability of the GRIND-PP for practical applications and provide useful hints about how they should be computed for obtaining optimum results.

Tools & Trends, June 2005, Vol. 14, No. 3

News from the Iowa Department of Economic Development

Systematic molecular and cytogenetic screening of 100 patients with marfanoid syndromes and intellectual disability.

The association of marfanoid habitus (MH) and intellectual disability (ID) has been reported in the literature, with overlapping presentations and genetic heterogeneity. A hundred patients (71 males and 29 females) with a MH and ID were recruited. Custom-designed 244K array-CGH (Agilent®; Agilent Technologies Inc., Santa Clara, CA) and MED12, ZDHHC9, UPF3B, FBN1, TGFBR1 and TGFBR2 sequencing analyses were performed. Eighty patients could be classified as isolated MH and ID: 12 chromosomal imbalances, 1 FBN1 mutation and 1 possibly pathogenic MED12 mutation were found (17%). Twenty patients could be classified as ID with other extra-skeletal features of the Marfan syndrome (MFS) spectrum: 4 pathogenic FBN1 mutations and 4 chromosomal imbalances were found (2 patients with both FBN1 mutation and chromosomal rearrangement) (29%). These results suggest either that there are more loci with genes yet to be discovered or that MH can also be a relatively non-specific feature of patients with ID. The search for aortic complications is mandatory even if MH is associated with ID since FBN1 mutations or rearrangements were found in some patients. The excess of males is in favour of the involvement of other X-linked genes. Although it was impossible to make a diagnosis in 80% of patients, these results will improve genetic counselling in families.

The differentiation of fibre- and drug type Cannabis seedlings by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and chemometric tools

Cannabis cultivation in order to produce drugs is forbidden in Switzerland. Thus, law enforcement authorities regularly ask forensic laboratories to determinate cannabis plant's chemotype from seized material in order to ascertain that the plantation is legal or not. As required by the EU official analysis protocol the THC rate of cannabis is measured from the flowers at maturity. When laboratories are confronted to seedlings, they have to lead the plant to maturity, meaning a time consuming and costly procedure. This study investigated the discrimination of fibre type from drug type Cannabis seedlings by analysing the compounds found in their leaves and using chemometrics tools. 11 legal varieties allowed by the Swiss Federal Office for Agriculture and 13 illegal ones were greenhouse grown and analysed using a gas chromatograph interfaced with a mass spectrometer. Compounds that show high discrimination capabilities in the seedlings have been identified and a support vector machines (SVMs) analysis was used to classify the cannabis samples. The overall set of samples shows a classification rate above 99% with false positive rates less than 2%. This model allows then discrimination between fibre and drug type Cannabis at an early stage of growth. Therefore it is not necessary to wait plants' maturity to quantify their amount of THC in order to determine their chemotype. This procedure could be used for the control of legal (fibre type) and illegal (drug type) Cannabis production.

Tools & Trends from the Iowa Department of Economic Development, September 2005

Community Development News

Semantic web adoption: online tools for web evaluation and metadata extraction

This work briefly analyses the difficulties to adopt the Semantic Web, and in particular proposes systems to know the present level of migration to the different technologies that make up the Semantic Web. It focuses on the presentation and description of two tools, DigiDocSpider and DigiDocMetaEdit, designed with the aim of verifYing, evaluating, and promoting its implementation.

Cost-effectiveness of opportunistic versus organised mammography screening in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Various centralised mammography screening programmes have shown to reduce breast cancer mortality at reasonable costs. However, mammography screening is not necessarily cost-effective in every situation. Opportunistic screening, the predominant screening modality in several European countries, may under certain circumstances be a cost-effective alternative. In this study, we compared the cost-effectiveness of both screening modalities in Switzerland. METHODS: Using micro-simulation modelling, we predicted the effects and costs of biennial mammography screening for 50-69 years old women between 1999 and 2020, in the Swiss female population aged 30-70 in 1999. A sensitivity analysis on the test sensitivity of opportunistic screening was performed. RESULTS: Organised mammography screening with an 80% participation rate yielded a breast cancer mortality reduction of 13%. Twenty years after the start of screening, the predicted annual breast cancer mortality was 25% lower than in a situation without screening. The 3% discounted cost-effectiveness ratio of organised mammography screening was euro11,512 per life year gained. Opportunistic screening with a similar participation rate was comparably effective, but at twice the costs: euro22,671-24,707 per life year gained. This was mainly related to the high costs of opportunistic mammography and frequent use of imaging diagnostics in combination with an opportunistic mammogram. CONCLUSION: Although data on the performance of opportunistic screening are limited, both opportunistic and organised mammography screening seem effective in reducing breast cancer mortality in Switzerland. However, for opportunistic screening to become equally cost-effective as organised screening, costs and use of additional diagnostics should be reduced.