Challenges in quantifying wind generation's contribution to securing peak demand

Wind generation's contribution to supporting peak electricity demand is one of the key questions in wind integration studies. Differently from conventional units, the available outputs of different wind farms cannot be approximated as being statistically independent, and hence near-zero wind output is possible across an entire power system. This paper will review the risk model structures currently used to assess wind's capacity value, along with discussion of the resulting data requirements. A central theme is the benefits from performing statistical estimation of the joint distribution for demand and available wind capacity, focusing attention on uncertainties due to limited histories of wind and demand data; examination of Great Britain data from the last 25 years shows that the data requirements are greater than generally thought. A discussion is therefore presented into how analysis of the types of weather system which have historically driven extreme electricity demands can help to deliver robust insights into wind's contribution to supporting demand, even in the face of such data limitations. The role of the form of the probability distribution for available conventional capacity in driving wind capacity credit results is also discussed.

You make it happen: document demand, typeface supply

The basic premise of this article is that typefaces reflect, and respond to, the conditions of making and using documents; and that demand for evolving document genres drives the development of new typefaces. The article describes how the combination of a narrow range for functionally acceptable letters and paragraphs, and a wide range of possibilities to express these arrangements, offers a revealing tool for examining changes in the perceptions of professionals in visual communication. Beyond technical issues, the choices of document makers allow insights into wider trends such as urbanisation, demographic changes, education standards, and wider issues of visual literacy.

Ant larval demand reduces aphid colony growth rates in an ant-aphid interaction

Ants often form mutualistic interactions with aphids, soliciting honeydew in return for protective services. Under certain circumstances, however, ants will prey upon aphids. In addition, in the presence of ants aphids may increase the quantity or quality of honeydew produced, which is costly. Through these mechanisms, ant attendance can reduce aphid colony growth rates. However, it is unknown whether demand from within the ant colony can affect the ant-aphid interaction. In a factorial experiment, we tested whether the presence of larvae in Lasius niger ant colonies affected the growth rate of Aphis fabae colonies. Other explanatory variables tested were the origin of ant colonies (two separate colonies were used) and previous diet (sugar only or sugar and protein). We found that the presence of larvae in the ant colony significantly reduced the growth rate of aphid colonies. Previous diet and colony origin did not affect aphid colony growth rates. Our results suggest that ant colonies balance the flow of two separate resources from aphid colonies- renewable sugars or a protein-rich meal, depending on demand from ant larvae within the nest. Aphid payoffs from the ant-aphid interaction may change on a seasonal basis, as the demand from larvae within the ant colony waxes and wanes.

Application of dried blood spots to determine vitamin D status in a large nutritional study with unsupervised sampling: the Food4Me project

An efficient and robust method to measure vitamin D (25-hydroxy vitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxy vitamin D2 in dried blood spots (DBS) has been developed and applied in the pan-European multi-centre, internet-based, personalised nutrition intervention study Food4Me. The method includes calibration with blood containing endogenous 25(OH)D3, spotted as DBS and corrected for haematocrit content. The methodology was validated following international standards. The performance characteristics did not reach those of the current gold standard liquid chromatography-MS/MS in plasma for all parameters, but were found to be very suitable for status-level determination under field conditions. DBS sample quality was very high, and 3778 measurements of 25(OH)D3 were obtained from 1465 participants. The study centre and the season within the study centre were very good predictors of 25(OH)D3 levels (P<0·001 for each case). Seasonal effects were modelled by fitting a sine function with a minimum 25(OH)D3 level on 20 January and a maximum on 21 July. The seasonal amplitude varied from centre to centre. The largest difference between winter and summer levels was found in Germany and the smallest in Poland. The model was cross-validated to determine the consistency of the predictions and the performance of the DBS method. The Pearson's correlation between the measured values and the predicted values was r 0·65, and the sd of their differences was 21·2 nmol/l. This includes the analytical variation and the biological variation within subjects. Overall, DBS obtained by unsupervised sampling of the participants at home was a viable methodology for obtaining vitamin D status information in a large nutritional study.

Analysis and clustering of residential customers energy behavioral demand using smart meter data

Clustering methods are increasingly being applied to residential smart meter data, providing a number of important opportunities for distribution network operators (DNOs) to manage and plan the low voltage networks. Clustering has a number of potential advantages for DNOs including, identifying suitable candidates for demand response and improving energy profile modelling. However, due to the high stochasticity and irregularity of household level demand, detailed analytics are required to define appropriate attributes to cluster. In this paper we present in-depth analysis of customer smart meter data to better understand peak demand and major sources of variability in their behaviour. We find four key time periods in which the data should be analysed and use this to form relevant attributes for our clustering. We present a finite mixture model based clustering where we discover 10 distinct behaviour groups describing customers based on their demand and their variability. Finally, using an existing bootstrapping technique we show that the clustering is reliable. To the authors knowledge this is the first time in the power systems literature that the sample robustness of the clustering has been tested.

The distributional and nutritional impacts and mitigation potential of emission-based food taxes in the UK

Agriculture and food production are responsible for a substantial proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. An emission based food tax has been proposed as one option to reduce food related emissions. This study introduces a method to measure the impacts of emission based food taxes at a household level which involves the use of data augmentation to account for the fact that the data record purchases and not consumption. The method is applied to determine the distributional and nutritional impacts of an emission based food tax across socio-economic classes in the UK. We find that a tax of £2.841/tCO2e on all foods would reduce food related emissions by 6.3% and a tax on foods with above average levels of emissions would reduce emissions by 4.3%. The tax burden falls disproportionately on households in the lowest socio-economic class because they tend to spend a larger proportion of their food expenditure on emission intensive foods and because they buy cheaper products and therefore experience relatively larger price increases.

Simultaneous activities in the household and residential electricity demand in Spain

Recent research and policy studies on the low-carbon future highlight the importance of flexible electricity demand. This might be problematic particularly for residential electricity demand, which is related to simultaneous consumers’ practices in the household. This paper analyses issues of simultaneity in residential electricity demand in Spain. It makes use of the 2011 Spanish Time Use Survey data with comparisons from the previous Spanish Time Use Survey and the Harmonised European Time Use Surveys. Findings show that media activities are associated the highest levels of continuity and simultaneity, particularly in the early and late parts of the evening during weekdays.

Apple pollination: demand depends on variety and supply depends on pollinator identity

Insect pollination underpins apple production but the extent to which different pollinator guilds supply this service, particularly across different apple varieties, is unknown. Such information is essential if appropriate orchard management practices are to be targeted and proportional to the potential benefits pollinator species may provide. Here we use a novel combination of pollinator effectiveness assays (floral visit effectiveness), orchard field surveys (flower visitation rate) and pollinator dependence manipulations (pollinator exclusion experiments) to quantify the supply of pollination services provided by four different pollinator guilds to the production of four commercial varieties of apple. We show that not all pollinators are equally effective at pollinating apples, with hoverflies being less effective than solitary bees and bumblebees, and the relative abundance of different pollinator guilds visiting apple flowers of different varieties varies significantly. Based on this, the taxa specific economic benefits to UK apple production have been established. The contribution of insect pollinators to the economic output in all varieties was estimated to be £92.1M across the UK, with contributions varying widely across taxa: solitary bees (£51.4M), honeybees (£21.4M), bumblebees (£18.6M) and hoverflies (£0.7M). This research highlights the differences in the economic benefits of four insect pollinator guilds to four major apple varieties in the UK. This information is essential to underpin appropriate investment in pollination services management and provides a model that can be used in other entomolophilous crops to improve our understanding of crop pollination ecology.

Complementarity of Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) for predicting poor clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients

Background & aims: We evaluated the ability of Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) to predict malnutrition related to poor clinical outcomes. Methods: We assessed 705 patients at a public university hospital within 48 h of admission. Logistic regression and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated to test the complementarity between the tools and their ability to predict very long length of hospital stay (VLLOS), complications, and death. Results: Of the patients screened, 27.9% were at nutritional risk (NRS+) and 38.9% were malnourished (SGA B or C). Compared to those patients not at nutritional risk, NRS+, SGA B or C patients were at increased risk for complications (p = 0.03, 0.02, and 0.003, respectively). NRS+ patients had an increased risk of death (p = 0.03), and SGA B and C patients had an increased likelihood of VLLOS (p = 0.008 and p < 0.0001, respectively). Patients who were both NRS+ and SGA C had lower estimates of NNS than patients who were NRS+ or SGA C only, though their confidence intervals did overlap. Conclusions: The concurrent application of SGA in NRS+ patients might enhance the ability to predict poor clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients in Brazil. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

The Nutritional Status of Children and Adolescents with HIV/AIDS on Antiretroviral Therapy

The objective of this cross-sectional study was to assess the nutritional status of children and adolescents with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). One hundred and eighteen subjects aged 6-19 years attending an outpatient clinic in Sao Paulo city were involved in the study. The following anthropometric measurements were assessed: weight, height, waist circumference and triceps and subscapular skinfold thickness. One (0.9%) adolescent was diagnosed with abdominal obesity based on waist circumference measurement; three (2.5%) adolescents were obese based on subscapular skinfold thickness. According to the body mass index, the population studied was mainly eutrophic. The prevalence of fat redistribution, a characteristic of patients with HIV/AIDS under HAART, was low. We advise the development of further studies to assess the nutritional status of children and adolescents with HIV/AIDS using anthropometric measurements as well as computed tomography to detect fat redistribution.

Impact of a nutritional counseling program on prevention of HAART-related metabolic and morphologic abnormalities

The advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) improved HIV infection prognosis. However, adverse metabolic and morphologic effects emerged, highlighting a lack of investigation into the role of nutritional interventions among this population. The present study evaluated the impact of a nutritional counseling program on prevention of morphologic and metabolic changes in patients living with HIV/AIDS receiving HAART. A 12-month randomized clinical trial was conducted with 53 adults of both genders in use of HAART. Subjects were allocated to either an intervention group (IG) or a control group (CG). Nutritional counseling was based on the promotion of a healthy diet pattern. Anthropometrical, biochemical, blood pressure, and food intake variables were assessed on four separate occasions. Sub scapular skin-fold results showed a significant tendency for increase between time 1 (Mean IG = 14.9 mm; CG = 13.6 mm), time 3 (Mean IG = 16.7 mm; CG = 18.2 mm), and time 4 (Mean IG = 16.4 mm; CG = 17.7 mm). Lipid percentage intake presented a greater increase among controls (time 1 mean = 26.3%, time 4 mean = 29.6%) than among IG subjects (time 1 mean = 29.1%, time 4 mean = 28.9%). Moreover, participants allocated to the IG presented an increase in dietetic fiber intake of almost 10 grams. The proposed nutritional counseling program proved to be effective in improving diet by reducing fat consumption and increasing fiber intake.

Amaranth bars enriched with fructans: acceptability and nutritional value

Amaranth bars enriched with fructans: acceptability and nutritional value. There is an increasing appeal for convenience foods with potential health benefits to the consumer. Raw materials with high nutritional value and functional properties must be used on the development of these food products. Amaranth is a gluten-free grain with high nutrition value. Inulin and oligofructose are prebiotic ingredients presenting effects as the enhancement of calcium absorption. Amaranth bars enriched with inulin and oligofructose were developed in the flavors: banana, Brazilian nuts and dried grape, coconut, peach, strawberry and wall nut. The proximate composition were determined and compared to commercial cereal bars, available in traditional (n=59), light (n=60), diet (n=8), with soy (n=10) and quinoa (n=1) categories. Amaranth bars present mean global acceptance values from 6.3 to 7.6 on a 9-point hedonic scale, nutritional advantages as compared to commercial cereal bars (caloric reduction and higher levels of dietary fiber). Although amaranth is an unknown raw material in Brazil, it shows good potential to be used in the manufacturing of ready-to-eat products. As they are gluten free, these amaranth bars are also an alternative product for celiacs, also contributing to the enhancement of calcium absorption, a problem frequently observed in these patients.

Nutritional intervention programme among a Japanese-Brazilian community: procedures and results according to gender

Objective: To describe the results of a nutritional intervention programme among Japanese-Brazilians according to gender. Design: A non-controlled experimental study. Setting: The research included three points of clinical, nutritional and physical activity evaluation: at baseline (in 2005), after the first year and at the end of the second year (in 2007). The paired Student t test and multiple linear regression analysis were used to evaluate changes in the subjects` profile (clinical, nutritional and physical activity variables). Subjects: Japanese-Brazilians (n 575) of both genders, aged over 30 years. Results: We verified statistically significant reductions in body weight (0.9 kg), waist circumference (2.9 cm), blood pressure, fasting blood glucose (>3 mg/dl) and total cholesterol (>20 mg/dl) and its fractions, in both genders. We also found reductions in intake of energy (among men), protein (among women) and fat (both genders) and increases in intake of total fibre (among women) and carbohydrate (among men). Conclusions: The intervention programme indicated meaningful benefits for the intervention subjects, with changes in their habits that led to a `healthier` lifestyle positively impacting their nutritional and metabolic profile.

Dietary practices and nutritional status of 0-24-month-old children from Brazilian Amazonia

Objective: To assess the nutritional status and dietary practices of 0-24-month-old children living in Brazilian Amazonia. Design: Cross-sectional study. Information oil children`s dietary intakes was obtained from diet history data. Weight and length Were measured for anthropometric evaluation. Fe status Was assessed Using fasting venous blood samples; Hb, serum ferritin and soluble tranferrin receptor concentrations were measured. Setting: The towns of Assis Brasil and Acrelandia in the state of Acre, north-west Brazil. Subjects: A total of sixty-nine randomly selected 0-24-month-old children. Results: Of these children, 40.3 % were anaemic, 63.1% were Fe-deficient, 28.1% had Fe-deficiency anaemia and 11.6% were stunted. Breast-feeding was initiated by 97.1% of mother followed by early feeding with complementary foods. The dietary pattern reflected a high intake of carbohydrate-rich foods and cow`s milk, with irregular intakes Of fruit, Vegetables and meat. All infants and 92.3% of toddlers were at risk Of inadequate Fe intakes. Fe from animal foods contributed Oil average 0.5% and 14.3% to total dietary Fe intake among infants and toddlers, respectively. Conclusions: Poor nutritional status and inadequate feeding practices in this study population reinforce the importance of exclusive breast-feeding during the first 6 months of life. Greater emphasis is required to improve the bioavailability of dietary Fe during complementary feeding practices.

Use of the mini nutritional assessment tool in elderly people from long-term institutions of southeast of Brazil

Background: the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) is a multidimensional method of nutritional evaluation that allows the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in elderly people, it is important to mention that this method has not been well studied in Brazil. Objective: to verify the use of the MNA in elderly people that has been living in long term institutions for elderly people. Design: transversal study. Participants: 89 people (>= 60 years), being 64.0% men. The average of age for both genders was 73.7 +/- 9.1 years old, being 72.8 +/- 8.9 years old for men, and 75.3 +/- 9.3 years old for women. Setting: long-term institutions for elderly people located in the Southeast of Brazil. Methods: it was calculated the sensibility, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. It was data to set up a ROC curve to verify the accuracy of the MNA. The variable used as a ""standard"" for the nutritional diagnosis of the elderly people was the corrected arm muscle area because it is able to provide information or an estimative of the muscle reserve of a person being considered a good indicator of malnutrition in elderly people. Results: the sensibility was 84.0%, the specificity was 36.0%, the positive predictive value was 77.0%, and the negative predictive value was 47.0%; the area of the ROC curve was 0.71 (71.0%). Conclusion: the MNA method has showed accuracy, and sensibility when dealing with the diagnosis of malnutrition and risk of malnutrition in institutionalized elderly groups of the Southeastern region of Brazil, however, it presented a low specificity.