936 resultados para Natural Catastrophe, Property Insurance, Loss Distribution, Truncated Data, Ruin Probability


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In 2000, Ramadan school vacation coincided with the original annual exam period of December in Bangladesh. This forced schools to pre-pone their final exam schedules in November, which was the month before the harvest begins. 'Ramadan 2000' is a natural experiment that reduced the labor demand for children during the exam period. Using household level panel data of 2000 and 2003, and after controlling for various unobservable variations including individual fixed effects, aggregate year effects, and subdistrict-level year effects, this paper finds evidence of statistically significant impact of seasonal labor demand on school dropout in Bangladesh among the children from agricultural households.

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The presence of Pinus nigra in central Spain, where its natural populations are very rare, has led to different interpretations of the current vegetation dynamics. Complementary to the available palynological evidence, macroremains provide local information of high taxonomic resolution that helps to reconstruct the palaeobiogeography of a given species. Here we present new macrofossil data from Tubilla del Lago, a small palaeolake located at the eastern part of the northern Iberian Meseta. We identified 17 wood samples and 71 cones on the basis of their wood anatomy and morphology, respectively. S ome of the fossil samples were radiocarbon dated (~4.230-3210 years cal BP). The results demonstrate the Holocene presence of P. nigra in the study area, where it is currently extinct. This evidence, together with other published palaeobotanical studies, indicates that the forests dominated by P. nigra must have had a larger importance on the landscape prior to the anthropogenic influence on the northern Iberian Meseta.

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KCNQ4 mutations underlie DFNA2, a subtype of autosomal dominant hearing loss. We had previously identified the pore-region p.G296S mutation that impaired channel activity in two manners: it greatly reduced surface expression and abolished channel function. Moreover, G296S mutant exerted a strong dominant-negative effect on potassium currents by reducing the channel expression at the cell surface representing the first study to identify a trafficking-dependent dominant mechanism for the loss of KCNQ4 channel function in DFNA2. Here, we have investigated the pathogenic mechanism associated with all the described KCNQ4 mutations (F182L, W242X, E260K, D262V, L274H, W276S, L281S, G285C, G285S and G321S) that are located in different domains of the channel protein. F182L mutant showed a wild type-like cell-surface distribution in transiently transfected NIH3T3 fibroblasts and the recorded currents in Xenopus oocytes resembled those of the wild-type. The remaining KCNQ4 mutants abolished potassium currents, but displayed distinct levels of defective cell-surface expression in NIH3T3 as quantified by flow citometry. Co-localization studies revealed these mutants were retained in the ER, unless W242X, which showed a clear co-localization with Golgi apparatus. Interestingly, this mutation results in a truncated KCNQ4 protein at the S5 transmembrane domain, before the pore region, that escapes the protein quality control in the ER but does not reach the cell surface at normal levels. Currently we are investigating the trafficking behaviour and electrophysiological properties of several KCNQ4 truncated proteins artificially generated in order to identify specific motifs involved in channel retention/exportation. Altogether, our results indicate that a defect in KCNQ4 trafficking is the common mechanism underlying DFNA2

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Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

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The elemental composition, patterns of distribution and possible sources of street dust are not common to all urban environments, but vary according to the peculiarities of each city. The common features and dissimilarities in the origin and nature of street dust were investigated through a series of studies in two widely different cities, Madrid (Spain) and Oslo (Norway), between 1990 and 1994. The most comprehensive sampling campaign was carried out in the Norwegian capital during the summer of 1994. An area of 14 km2, covering most of downtown Oslo and some residential districts to the north of the city, was divided into 1 km2 mapping units, and 16 sampling increments of approximately 150 g were collected from streets and roads in each of them. The fraction below 100 μm was acid-digested and analysed by ICP-MS. Statistical analyses of the results suggest that chemical elements in street dust can be classified into three groups: “urban” elements (Ba, Cd, Co, Cu, Mg, Pb, Sb, Ti, Zn), “natural” elements (Al, Ga, La, Mn, Na, Sr, Th, Y) and elements of a mixed origin or which have undergone geochemical changes from their original sources (Ca, Cs, Fe, Mo, Ni, Rb, Sr, U). Soil resuspension and/or mobilisation appears to be the most important source of “natural” elements, while “urban” elements originate primarily from traffic and from the weathering and corrosion of building materials. The data for Pb seem to prove that the gradual shift from leaded to unleaded petrol as fuel for automobiles has resulted in an almost proportional reduction in the concentration of Pb in dust particles under 100 μm. This fact and the spatial distribution of Pb in the city strongly suggest that lead sources other than traffic (i.e. lead accumulated in urban soil over the years) may contribute as much lead, if not more, to urban street dust.

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Doñana, a National Park since 1969, a UNESCO site since 1994 among other protected area designations of national and international character, is a coastal dune and marshland ecosystem of outstanding importance for biodiversity and conservation at the mouth of the Guadalaquivir River, Southwest Spain. However, the Doñana natural area is seriously threatened by global change factors such as humanly induced climate change, habitat loss, overexploitation of ecosystem services, and pollution. Not all stakeholders are convinced of the benefits of the national park, and management of Doñana, its environs and watershed are the subject of intense disagreement. This interplay between natural characteristics of great value with intense human pressure makes Doñana a fascinating workshop for the study of global human environment interactions. Here, we discuss the role of stakeholders in the application of a cellular automatabased model to Doñana and its environs and present the results of a series of exercises undertaken with stakeholders to parametrize the model, something often done by researchers without stakeholder engagement. By engaging with stakeholders early in the project, feedback generated from workshops contributes to model development. Stakeholders are therefore contributors of empirical data for the model as well as independent evaluators providing local and specialist knowledge.

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En este trabajo se ha investigado la posibilidad de utilizar el estándar DDS (Data Distribution Service) desarrollado por el OMG (Object Management Group) para la monitorización en tiempo real del nivel de glucosa en pacientes diabéticos. Dicho estándar sigue el patrón publicador/suscriptor de modo que, en la prueba de concepto desarrollada, los sensores del punto de cuidado son publicadores de los valores de glucosa de los pacientes y diferentes supervisores se suscriben a esa información. Estos supervisores reaccionan de la forma más adecuada a los valores y la evolución del nivel de glucosa en el paciente, por ejemplo, registrando el valor de la muestra o generando una alarma. El software de intermediación que soporta la comunicación de datos sigue el estándar DDS. Esto facilita por un lado la escalabilidad e interoperatividad de la solución desarrollada y por otro la monitorización de niveles de glucosa y la activación de protocolos predefinidos en tiempo real. La investigación se enmarca dentro del proyecto intramural PERSONA del CIBER-BBN, cuyo objetivo es el diseño de herramientas de soporte a la decisión para la monitorización continua de pacientes personalizadas e integradas en una plataforma tecnológica para diabetes.

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distribuciones diamétricas con ALS

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In this article, we argue that there is a growing number of linked datasets in different natural languages, and that there is a need for guidelines and mechanisms to ensure the quality and organic growth of this emerging multilingual data network. However, we have little knowledge regarding the actual state of this data network, its current practices, and the open challenges that it poses. Questions regarding the distribution of natural languages, the links that are established across data in different languages, or how linguistic features are represented, remain mostly unanswered. Addressing these and other language-related issues can help to identify existing problems, propose new mechanisms and guidelines or adapt the ones in use for publishing linked data including language-related features, and, ultimately, provide metrics to evaluate quality aspects. In this article we review, discuss, and extend current guidelines for publishing linked data by focusing on those methods, techniques and tools that can help RDF publishers to cope with language barriers. Whenever possible, we will illustrate and discuss each of these guidelines, methods, and tools on the basis of practical examples that we have encountered in the publication of the datos.bne.es dataset.

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In this article we study the univariate and bivariate truncated von Mises distribution, as a generalization of the von Mises distribution (\cite{jupp1989}), (\cite{mardia2000directional}). This implies the addition of two or four new truncation parameters in the univariate and, bivariate cases, respectively. The results include the definition, properties of the distribution and maximum likelihood estimators for the univariate and bivariate cases. Additionally, the analysis of the bivariate case shows how the conditional distribution is a truncated von Mises distribution, whereas the marginal distribution that generalizes the distribution introduced in \cite{repe}. From the viewpoint of applications, we test the distribution with simulated data, as well as with data regarding leaf inclination angles (\cite{safari}) and dihedral angles in protein chains (\cite{prote}). This research aims to assert this probability distribution as a potential option for modelling or simulating any kind of phenomena where circular distributions are applicable.\par

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The study of soil structure, i.e., the pores, is of vital importance in different fields of science and technology. Total pore volume (porosity), pore surface, pore connectivity and pore size distribution are some (probably the most important) of the geometric measurements of pore space. The technology of X-ray computed tomography allows us to obtain 3D images of the inside of a soil sample enabling study of the pores without disturbing the samples. In this work we performed a set of geometrical measures, some of them from mathematical morphology, to assess and quantify any possible difference that tillage may have caused on the soil. We compared samples from tilled soil with samples from a soil with natural vegetation taken in a very close area. Our results show that the main differences between these two groups of samples are total surface area and pore connectivity per unit pore volume.

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Valoración de la transferencia temporal de los modelos de distribución de especies para su aplicación en nuestros días utilizando datos paleobotánicos Corilus avellana y Alnus glutinosa.

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Providing descriptions of isolated sensors and sensor networks in natural language, understandable by the general public, is useful to help users find relevant sensors and analyze sensor data. In this paper, we discuss the feasibility of using geographic knowledge from public databases available on the Web (such as OpenStreetMap, Geonames, or DBpedia) to automatically construct such descriptions. We present a general method that uses such information to generate sensor descriptions in natural language. The results of the evaluation of our method in a hydrologic national sensor network showed that this approach is feasible and capable of generating adequate sensor descriptions with a lower development effort compared to other approaches. In the paper we also analyze certain problems that we found in public databases (e.g., heterogeneity, non-standard use of labels, or rigid search methods) and their impact in the generation of sensor descriptions.

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Iron is critical for symbiotic nitrogen fixation (SNF) as a key component ofmultiple ferroproteins involved in this biological process. In the model legume Medicago truncatula, iron is delivered by the vasculature to the infection/maturation zone (zone II) of the nodule, where it is released to the apoplast. From there, plasma membrane iron transporters move it into rhizobia-containing cells, where iron is used as the cofactor of multiple plant and rhizobial proteins (e.g. plant leghemoglobin and bacterial nitrogenase). MtNramp1 (Medtr3g088460) is the M. truncatula Natural Resistance-Associated Macrophage Protein family member, with the highest expression levels in roots and nodules. Immunolocalization studies indicate that MtNramp1 is mainly targeted to the plasma membrane. A loss-of-function nramp1 mutant exhibited reduced growth compared with the wild type under symbiotic conditions, but not when fertilized with mineral nitrogen. Nitrogenase activity was low in the mutant, whereas exogenous iron and expression of wild-type MtNramp1 in mutant nodules increased nitrogen fixation to normal levels. These data are consistent with a model in which MtNramp1 is the main transporter responsible for apoplastic iron uptake by rhizobia-infected cells in zone II.

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This work was financially supported by the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), (2851ERA01J). FT and RPR were supported by FACCE MACSUR (3200009600) through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM). EC, HE and EL were supported by The Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (220-2007-1218) and by the strategic funding ‘Soil-Water-Landscape’ from the faculty of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) and thank professor P-E Jansson (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm) for support. JC, HR and DW thank the INRA ACCAF metaprogramm for funding and Eric Casellas from UR MIAT INRA for support. CB was funded by the Helmholtz project “REKLIM—Regional Climate Change”. CK was funded by the HGF Alliance “Remote Sensing and Earth System Dynamics” (EDA). FH was funded by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG) under the Grant FOR1695. FE and SS acknowledge support by the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5-1). HH, GZ, SS, TG and FE thank Andreas Enders and Gunther Krauss (INRES, University of Bonn) for support. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.