Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south-central Indiana, USA

Observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and its biophysical drivers have been collected at the AmeriFlux site in the Morgan-Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, USA since 1998. Thus, this is one of the few deciduous forest sites in the world, where a decadal analysis on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) trends is possible. Despite the large interannual variability in NEP, the observations show a significant increase in forest productivity over the past 10 years (by an annual increment of about 10 g C m−2 yr−1). There is evidence that this trend can be explained by longer vegetative seasons, caused by extension of the vegetative activity in the fall. Both phenological and flux observations indicate that the vegetative season extended later in the fall with an increase in length of about 3 days yr−1 for the past 10 years. However, these changes are responsible for only 50% of the total annual gain in forest productivity in the past decade. A negative trend in air and soil temperature during the winter months may explain an equivalent increase in NEP through a decrease in ecosystem respiration.

In-situ spatio-temporal measurements of the detailed azimuthal substructure of the substorm current wedge

The substorm current wedge (SCW) is a fundamental component of geomagnetic substorms. Models tend to describe the SCW as a simple line current flowing into the ionosphere towards dawn and out of the ionosphere towards dusk, linked by a westward electrojet. We use multi-spacecraft observations from perigee passes of the Cluster 1 and 4 spacecraft during a substorm on 15 Jan 2010, in conjunction with ground-based observations, to examine the spatial structuring and temporal variability of the SCW. At this time, the spacecraft travelled east-west azimuthally above the auroral region. We show that the SCW has significant azimuthal sub-structure on scales of 100~km at altitudes of 4,000-7,000~km. We identify 26 individual current sheets in the Cluster 4 data and 34 individual current sheets in the Cluster 1 data, with Cluster 1 passing through the SCW 120-240~s after Cluster 4 at 1,300-2,000~km higher altitude. Both spacecraft observed large-scale regions of net upward and downward field-aligned current, consistent with the large-scale characteristics of the SCW, although sheets of oppositely directed currents were observed within both regions. We show that the majority of these current sheets were closely aligned to a north-south direction, in contrast to the expected east-west orientation of the pre-onset aurora. Comparing our results with observations of the field-aligned current associated with bursty bulk flows (BBFs) we conclude that significant questions remain for the explanation of SCW structuring by BBF driven ``wedgelets". Our results therefore represent constraints on future modelling and theoretical frameworks on the generation of the SCW.

Evaluation frameworks for information systems integration: from a semiotic lens

Information systems integration aims at the interaction, information exchange and interoperability between information systems, devices and units. Research efforts have contributed in evaluation of information systems integration on the development of evaluation frameworks. To improve the usability and measurability of evaluation, a review of existing evaluation frameworks including their evolution and classifications of different interoperability levels is conducted. The theory of organisational semiotics is used for a comparative analysis of the frameworks and future work.

Elastic net orthogonal forward regression

An efficient two-level model identification method aiming at maximising a model׳s generalisation capability is proposed for a large class of linear-in-the-parameters models from the observational data. A new elastic net orthogonal forward regression (ENOFR) algorithm is employed at the lower level to carry out simultaneous model selection and elastic net parameter estimation. The two regularisation parameters in the elastic net are optimised using a particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm at the upper level by minimising the leave one out (LOO) mean square error (LOOMSE). There are two elements of original contributions. Firstly an elastic net cost function is defined and applied based on orthogonal decomposition, which facilitates the automatic model structure selection process with no need of using a predetermined error tolerance to terminate the forward selection process. Secondly it is shown that the LOOMSE based on the resultant ENOFR models can be analytically computed without actually splitting the data set, and the associate computation cost is small due to the ENOFR procedure. Consequently a fully automated procedure is achieved without resort to any other validation data set for iterative model evaluation. Illustrative examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approaches.

Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985-1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm–2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm–2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of 9 climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) over the 1985-2012 period.

Rationality of service composition of Workflow Net in a service oriented architecture

Users’ requirements change drives an information system evolution. Consequently, such evolution affects those atomic services which provide functional operations from one state of their composition to another state of composition. A challenging issue associated with such evolution of the state of service composition is to ensure a resultant service composition remaining rational. This paper presents a method of Service Composition Atomic-Operation Set (SCAOS). SCAOS defines 2 classes of atomic operations and 13 kinds of basic service compositions to aid a state change process by using Workflow Net. The workflow net has algorithmic capabilities to compose the required services with rationality and maintain any changes to the services in a different composition also rational. This method can improve the adaptability to the ever changing business requirements of information systems in the dynamic environment.

Joint data assimilation of satellite reflectance and net ecosystem exchange data constrains ecosystem carbon fluxes at a high-elevation subalpine forest

We utilized an ecosystem process model (SIPNET, simplified photosynthesis and evapotranspiration model) to estimate carbon fluxes of gross primary productivity and total ecosystem respiration of a high-elevation coniferous forest. The data assimilation routine incorporated aggregated twice-daily measurements of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) and satellite-based reflectance measurements of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) on an eight-day timescale. From these data we conducted a data assimilation experiment with fifteen different combinations of available data using twice-daily NEE, aggregated annual NEE, eight-day f AP AR, and average annual fAPAR. Model parameters were conditioned on three years of NEE and fAPAR data and results were evaluated to determine the information content from the different combinations of data streams. Across the data assimilation experiments conducted, model selection metrics such as the Bayesian Information Criterion and Deviance Information Criterion obtained minimum values when assimilating average annual fAPAR and twice-daily NEE data. Application of wavelet coherence analyses showed higher correlations between measured and modeled fAPAR on longer timescales ranging from 9 to 12 months. There were strong correlations between measured and modeled NEE (R2, coefficient of determination, 0.86), but correlations between measured and modeled eight-day fAPAR were quite poor (R2 = −0.94). We conclude that this inability to determine fAPAR on eight-day timescale would improve with the considerations of the radiative transfer through the plant canopy. Modeled fluxes when assimilating average annual fAPAR and annual NEE were comparable to corresponding results when assimilating twice-daily NEE, albeit at a greater uncertainty. Our results support the conclusion that for this coniferous forest twice-daily NEE data are a critical measurement stream for the data assimilation. The results from this modeling exercise indicate that for this coniferous forest, average annuals for satellite-based fAPAR measurements paired with annual NEE estimates may provide spatial detail to components of ecosystem carbon fluxes in proximity of eddy covariance towers. Inclusion of other independent data streams in the assimilation will also reduce uncertainty on modeled values.

Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012

Two methods are developed to estimate net surface energy fluxes based upon satellite-based reconstructions of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Method 1 applies the mass adjusted energy divergence from ERA-Interim while method 2 estimates energy divergence based upon the net energy difference at the top of atmosphere and the surface from ERA-Interim. To optimise the surface flux and its variability over ocean, the divergences over land are constrained to match the monthly area mean surface net energy flux variability derived from a simple relationship between the surface net energy flux and the surface temperature change. The energy divergences over the oceans are then adjusted to remove an unphysical residual global mean atmospheric energy divergence. The estimated net surface energy fluxes are compared with other data sets from reanalysis and atmospheric model simulations. The spatial correlation coefficients of multi-annual means between the estimations made here and other data sets are all around 0.9. There are good agreements in area mean anomaly variability over the global ocean, but discrepancies in the trend over the eastern Pacific are apparent.

Electronic structure of porphyrin-based metal-organic frameworks and their suitability for solar fuel production photocatalysis

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) can be exceptionally good catalytic materials thanks to the presence of active metal centres and a porous structure that is advantageous for molecular adsorption and confinement. We present here a first-principles investigation of the electronic structure of a family of MOFs based on porphyrins connected through phenyl-carboxyl ligands and AlOH species, in order to assess their suitability for the photocatalysis of fuel production reactions using sunlight. We consider structures with protonated porphyrins and those with the protons exchanged with late 3d metal cations (Fe2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Cu2+, Zn2+), a process that we find to be thermodynamically favorable from aqueous solution for all these metals. Our band structure calculations, based on an accurate screened hybrid functional, reveal that the bandgaps are in a favorable range (2.0 to 2.6 eV) for efficient adsorption of solar light. Furthermore, by approximating the vacuum level to the pore center potential, we provide the alignment of the MOFs’ band edges with the redox potentials for water splitting and carbon dioxide reduction, and show that the structures studied here have band edges positions suitable for these reactions at neutral pH.

An Alternative Section Method for Casting and Posterior Laser Welding of Metallic Frameworks for an Implant-Supported Prosthesis

Purpose: The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of fit of three types of implant-supported frameworks cast in Ni-Cr alloy: specifically, a framework cast as one piece compared to frameworks cast separately in sections to the transverse or the diagonal axis, and later laser welded. Materials and Methods: Three sets of similar implant-supported frameworks were constructed. The first group of six 3-unit implant-supported frameworks were cast as one piece, the second group of six were sectioned in the transverse axis of the pontic region prior to casting, and the last group of six were sectioned in the diagonal axis of the pontic region prior to casting. The sectioned frameworks were positioned in the matrix (10 N(.)cm torque) and laser welded. To evaluate passive fit, readings were made with an optical microscope with both screws tightened and with only one-screw tightened. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey-Kramer`s test (p < 0.05). Results: When both screws were tightened, no differences were found between the three groups (p > 0.05). In the single-screw-tightened test, with readings made opposite to the tightened side, the group cast as one piece (57.02 +/- 33.48 mu m) was significantly different (p < 0.05) from the group sectioned diagonally (18.92 +/- 4.75 mu m) but no different (p > 0.05) from the group transversally sectioned (31.42 +/- 20.68 mu m). On the tightened side, no significant differences were found between the groups (p > 0.05). Conclusions: Results of this study showed that casting diagonally sectioned frameworks lowers misfit levels of prosthetic implant-supported frameworks and also improves the levels of passivity to the same frameworks when compared to structures cast as one piece.

Correlation between vertical misfits and stresses transmitted to implants from metal frameworks

An inappropriate prosthetic fit could cause stress over the interface implant/bone. The objective of this study was to compare stresses transmitted to implants from frameworks cast using different materials and to investigate a possible correlation between vertical misfits and these stresses. Fifteen one-piece cast frameworks simulating bars for fixed prosthesis in a model with five implants were fabricated and arranged into three different groups according to the material used for casting: CP Ti (commercially pure titanium), Co-Cr (cobalt-chromium) or Ni-Cr-Ti (nickel-chromium-titanium) alloys. Each framework was installed over the metal model with all screws tightened to a 10 N cm torque and then, vertical misfits were measured using an optical microscope. The stresses transmitted to implants were measured using quantitative photoelastic analysis in values of maximum shear stress (T), when each framework was tightened to the photoelastic model to a 10 N cm standardized torque. Stress data were statistically analyzed using one-way ANOVA and Tukey`s test and correlation tests were performed using Pearson`s rank correlation (alpha = 0.05). Mean and standard deviation values of vertical misfit are presented for CP Ti (22.40 +/- 9.05 mu m), Co-Cr (66.41 +/- 35.47 mu m) and Ni-Cr-Ti (32.20 +/- 24.47 mu m). Stresses generated by Co-Cr alloy (tau = 7.70 +/- 2.16 kPa) were significantly higher than those generated by CP Ti (tau = 5.86 +/- 1.55 kPa, p = 0.018) and Ni-Cr-Ti alloy (tau =5.74 +/- 3.05 kPa, p = 0.011), which were similar (p = 0.982). Correlations between vertical misfits and stresses around the implants were not significant as for any evaluated materials. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative analysis of the fit of 3-unit implant-supported frameworks cast in nickel-chromium and cobalt-chromium alloys and commercially pure titanium after casting, laser welding, and simulated porcelain firings

This study compared the vertical misfit of 3-unit implant-supported nickel-chromium (Ni-Cr) and cobalt-chromium (Co-Cr) alloy and commercially pure titanium (cpTi) frameworks after casting as 1 piece, after sectioning and laser welding, and after simulated porcelain firings. The results on the tightened side showed no statistically significant differences. On the opposite side, statistically significant differences were found for Co-Cr alloy (118.64 mu m [SD: 91.48] to 39.90 mu m [SD: 27.13]) and cpTi (118.56 mu m [51.35] to 27.87 mu m [12.71]) when comparing 1-piece to laser-welded frameworks. With both sides tightened, only Co-Cr alloy showed statistically significant differences after laser welding. Ni-Cr alloy showed the lowest misfit values, though the differences were not statistically significantly different. Simulated porcelain firings revealed no significant differences.